Jr Tips
TAMPA BAY vs. COLORADO
The Colorado Rockies look for a franchise-record 12th straight victory and get back to .500 tonight against the visiting Rays, winners of five in a row. The Rockies (31-32) are 13-4, including victories in their last 11 games. The Colorado pitchers have allowed two or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games and have a 2.55 ERA in the last 11, with their starters going 10-0. Jorge De La Rosa (2-6, 5.08 ERA) will start tonight. He has earned his first two victories of the season in his last two outings, striking out 15 but De La Rosa is 0-4 with a 6.67 ERA at Coors this year. Tamap Bay has won five straight for the first time all year and will start Jeff Niemann (5-4, 4.12). The right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA in his last six starts, including a shutout of Kansas City on June 3, but he allowed seven hits and five runs in 3 2/3 innings last Wednesday against the Los Angeles Angels. The Rays are just 1-5 all-time in Denver and 13-19 on the road this year, and they've lost seven of their last eight road games. The Tampa Bay bullpen learned it will be without Jason Isringhausen for the rest of the season after the right-hander tore a ligament in his elbow Saturday so Niemann would have to go the whole game against a resurgent offense that has averaged 6.6 runs during their streak. Both teams are too hot to go against although they will keep the ball in play against tonight's starting pitchers especially in Coors Field.
TAKE OVER 10 RUNS
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
279 - 181 run 60 % 23-9 run here 😮
TUES Colo Rockies
8)
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
STL / DET Over 7
The Cardinals (34-30) have lost seven of their last 10 games, averaging 2.1 runs in those defeats. In Sunday?s 3-0 loss to Cleveland, St. Louis was no-hit through seven innings by reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee; however I expect the Cards to turn things around on the offensive end in front of the hometown crowd today. Pujols, who ranks among the NL leaders in homers (22), RBIs (57), on-base percentage (.442) and slugging (.689), has feasted on Detroit (34-29) pitching; in seven regular-season games against the Tigers since 2006, Pujols is batting .630 (17 for 27) with two homers, two doubles and five RBIs, but St. Louis has lost each time. The two-time NL MVP is 3 for 5 with a double versus Verlander (7-2, 3.02 ERA) in the regular season and homered off him in Game 1 of the 2006 World Series, which the Cardinals won in five games. Justin Verlander lost both starts versus St. Louis in that World Series, but after getting off to a slow start in 2009, he?s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past seven weeks. The right-hander went 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his first four starts and has played well since, but I look for him to struggle today. Detroit has seen the total go over the posted number in 5 of 6 interleague games while the Cardinals have seen the total go over the number in their last 5 interleague contests; play on the OVER!
Steve Merril
Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Detroit Tigers
Detroit's three town road trip has them going to St. Louis for the beginning of a three-game series with the Cardinals. Going for St. Louis is Justin Verlander who has been nothing short of brilliant for the Tigers. Verlander is 7-2 with a 3.02 ERA this season and has done great work in his last three game going 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA. In the lone game that he didn't win during that span, he still went eight shutout innings at home against the Angels. Verlander defeated the Cardinals in 2007 which was the last time he faced them, going eight strong innings and giving up just two runs and five hits. He'll be facing a Cardinals’ team who has lost four straight at home and is hitting just .228 during interleague play so far this season.
Going for the Cardinals is Adam Wainwright who is 6-4 with a 3.49 ERA this season. Wainwright has been shaky in his last three outings going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, giving up a whopping 24 hits in the last 20 innings. Wainwright gave up 11 hits to the Marlins and 10 hits to the Giants.
Dave Price
1 Unit on NY Mets +121
We'll take the Mets at an excellent price this evening with Pelfrey on the hill as the Mets are 10-3 in his last 13 starts as an underdog and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Orioles are just 2-9 in Guthrie's last 11 starts, 3-8 in their last 11 games overall, and 1-6 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. I can't pass up the more talented team with the better starter on the hill at this price.
John Ryan
Washington Nationals vs. New York Yankees
Play: Washington Nationals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington as they travel to face the NYY slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 59-40 making 29.2 units since 2003. Play on any team that is a poor fielding team averaging 0.75+ errors/game on the season and after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits. NYY are just 11-15 (-9.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game this season. Sabathia is 4-10 (-11.6 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last 3 seasons. As already outlined by the aforementioned nagle, the Nats rank 6th in MLB in total walks with 259. Boston and TB are tied for the league lead with 275. Washington has hitters that are patient and know how to work the count. We have seen on several occasions that when Sabathia gets behind in the count it spells trouble for the Yankees defense. Sabathia starts out strong, but between the 31st and 45th pitch in a game he becomes very vulnerable. Batters are hitting 286 with 6 doubles, 3 home runs, and 14 RBI’s during this pitch count range spanning 84 AB. After the 61st pitch batters are hitting 303 with 10 hits in 33 AB. Based on the AiS grading, this is certainly not a lock win game for the Yankees and the Nats really do have an opportunity to claim a rare road win. After numerous big time series with Boston and the Nets recently the letdown factor is very high. Take the Nats.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Kansas City Royals -134
Kansas City is playing winning ball at home this season and it is coming off a 3-game sweep over the Reds. I look for its winning ways to continue tonight against a D-backs team that has had all kinds of problems manufacturing much offense. Davis has not been nearly as effective when pitching away from home in his career. In fact, the Diamondbacks are 5-14 in Davis' last 19 road starts. Sending the southpaw to the hill plays right into the KC's hands as the Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record and I'll back them tonight.
Mike Rose
San Francisco Giants -130
O'Sullivan is a beefy kid (6"2" 230 pounds) that relies heavily upon the accuracy of his fastball. That pitch dictates whether he can baffle his opponents with his sinker/slider combination and changeup. In 10 starts this season for Triple-A Salt Lake, O'Sullivan went 5-2 with a 6.02 ERA in 10 starts. The 21-year old led the Angels farm system with 16 wins a year ago, and he was their third-round pick of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft.
Jonathan Sanchez just hasn't materialized in his 3+ seasons donning the Giants uniform! His stuff is very hittable. He walks way too many batters, and his K's are way down from a year ago. However, he's only given up 33 runs (31 earned) in 57.2 total innings of work which is probably why Manager Bruce Bochy continues to march his lefty out to the bump. He's only earned two wins this season, but they were both attained in tonight's venue where Sanchez has been much better this season. He's 2-0 with a 3.04 ERA and has allowed just 24 hits and nine earned runs in his five overall starts.
With the Giants coming off a loss at home where they've been one of the better $$$-makers this season, I find it to be a slap in the face that they're minimal favorites against a rookie in this spot. Sanchez is much better at home, and the Halos will be without two key cogs tonight (Hunter, Guerrero) making their already thin offense even less potent. This is as good a spot as any for the Giants to even this series up, so back the truck up and pounce on SF at this cheap price!!!
Dave Malinsky
Detroit Tigers @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Under 7.5
Seeing 7’s turn into 7.5’s is something that does not happen often on the MLB boards; in many ways a “7” is like a bank vault door that has to be blown with explosives in order to move. But that is what happened in the early Tuesday marketplace for this one, and that opens up a key number to allow us to remain in a nice window seat on the Justin Verlander bandwagon, while also being confident in the abilities of Adam Wainwright to shut down a struggling Detroit offense.
Verlander’s current form is simply off the charts good. Over his last nine starts it is a 7-0/1.10 over 65.1 innings, with a ratio of 81 strikeouts vs. only 43 hits allowed, only two of the latter leaving the park. And note the significance of the opposition through most of the stretch – he held the Yankees and Rangers to a combined one run over 13 innings, and five of the other seven came against division opponents. The latter particularly matters because Verlander can be even tougher to diagnose for teams that lack experience against him, which has helped to put together a sparkling 8-0/2.30 over 10 Inter-League starts. We can call on him to continue both the current form and that sub-category vs. a Cardinal offense that has been held to three runs or less in 28 of the last 46 games.
But Verlander may be matched pitch-for-pitch here by Wainwright. We did not believe the St. Louis right-hander was fully ready to go when the season started, and there were some awkward side numbers to be found – in three of his first six starts he had more fly ball outs than ground outs, and through that span walked 20 batters in 35.1 innings, far off of his career norms. That indeed turned out to be the case, and once he got into his physical rhythm we are seeing a pitcher that can be among the best right-handers in the game, working to a 2.68 over his last six starts, with more strikeouts than hits allowed in that span, and a positive ratio of ground ball outs to fly outs each time (he has been at least 2:1 in that latter category in each of his last three outings). As decent as his 6-4/3.49 full season numbers look he is better than that, and can show it against a Tiger offense that has scored three runs or less 17 times in the last 23 games, badly missing Carlos Guillen, and not getting any real punch from Magglio Ordonez (only 11 extra base hits in his 55 games played).
Tony Karpinski
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
One National League game tonight on the slate, as the slumping Braves take on the slumping Reds. Atlanta has lost their last pair, and 4 of their last 5, while Cincy is back home fresh off a sweep at Kansas City to run their losing streak to 4 in a row.
We are siding with the host, as the Reds do at least get the advanatge of playing at home for this one, and they will have Aaron Harang on the hill. Harang has gone 4-2 at home this season, with a 2.84 ERA. Jair Jurrjens will counter for the Braves, and he has lost his last pair of starts, and we feel the summer heat seems to be taking its toll on him as well. Play on the Cincinnati Reds.
Chris Jordan
Houston at TEXAS -140
The Rangers swept this series last month. And though the Astros are 11-5 and have won five consecutive series since snapping a season-high losing streak at the time, and things won’t be as easy for Texas this time around, I like my chances in this series opener. After all, this series is in Arlington; that one was at Minute Maid Park, where the Astros were outscored 17-8.
Cooling off Houston’s bats will be Kevin Millwood, who has provided the Rangers an opportunity to win just about every time he’s stepped on the mound, specifically his last two times out. Millwood hasn’t allowed an earned run over 14-2/3 innings in those outings, and comes in after limiting Toronto to five hits over 7-2/3 innings in a 1-0 victory last Thursday. Millwood has 2.19 ERA at home, while he’s now thrown 100 or more pitches in 11 of 13 starts and finished at least the seventh inning in 10 of 13 starts.
I expect the hard-hitting Rangers to thump Houston southpaw Wandy Rodriguez, who prior to settling into a groove in his last time out, was 0-3 in three previous starts after giving up a combined 18 runs – 12 of them earned – on 29 hits in 14-2/3 innings.
Play the Rangers tonight.
1♦ TEXAS RANGERS
Michael Cannon
Detroit at ST. LOUIS +105
Take the Cardinals as the home dog tonight over the Tigers.
I know Justin Verlander gets the start for Detroit and he’s been absolutely terrific this year, but Adam Wainwright of St. Louis is no slouch.
Wainwright is 6-4 on the year with a 3.49 ERA. He has the benefit of pitching at home in this matchup which means Detroit loses a hitter because of the NL rules being used.
Verlander has been so dominant this year, but anytime a team loses a hitter like the AL does in these games it just changes the strategy so much that it really puts the junior circuit at a disadvantage.
Plus, anytime you can get Albert Pujols at home when the pitching matchup is near even you have to consider that as a good buy.
Take the Cardinals as they grab the home win.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
IndianCowboy
Take Florida Marlins +150 (probably will rise) over the Boston Redsox
The reason why I love the Marlins is that you never know what to expect from them. They are a very streaky team that comes off sweeping the Toronto Bluejays on the road. This team outscored Toronto 24-11 in those 3 games north of the border and now travel back to the states to Beantown. This team is 17-14 on the road and to get a team that could very well win this game in a coinflip and to get the value of +150 is worth a shot. Plus, Volstad comes off one of his worst starts of the year giving up 6 runs and 10 hits in less than 6 innings to the Cardnials on the road (the Marlins went on to lose 4-13). I look for Volstad to bounce-back as prior to that start he had 3 straight quality starts and 7 of 9 quality starts overall. Wake comes off back to back quality starts but when you have followed Wakefield enough, he usually struggles to put together 3 straight quality starts at times (although he is brilliant on the bounce-back). Decent value on the Marlins today at +150 or better as they are 4-0 as Underdogs in Interleague play of late and 6-1 in Volstad's last 7 road starts when the total is set at this mark.
Scott Delaney
Now on a 17-8-1 run with the complimentary releases, and today we're taking the Cubbies.
It’s the Windy City rivalry at Wrigley Field and I am siding with the Cubs and ace hurler Carlos Zambrano over the ChiSox in the opener of this three-game set.
After bringing a four-game losing skid to a halt to salvage a weekend series against Minnesota, with a 3-2, walk-off victory Sunday, I like the momentum the Cubbies could bring into this one after taking Monday off.
The Cubs, who are 24-8 in their last 32 home games against lefty starters, stroll into this one on a 5-2 run after an off day. The Cubs have also won nine of the last 13 meetings in this rivalry, including six of seven at Wrigley Field.
In taking the Big Z, he’s in after scattering three hits and one run over eight innings in Houston last Tuesday; however, he didn’t receive a decision in his team’s 2-1 loss, which tells me he’ll be hungry to make it happen in this one. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 10 starts this season, while he’s 1-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three times toeing the slab.
In facing the White Sox during his career, Zambrano is 5-2 over 11 appearances (nine starts).
CHICAGO CUBS
Jake Timlin
No slowing down tonight for Colorado at home as I look for the Rockies to open the series against the Rays on a positive note. Just in case you don’t know the hottest team in the majors is the Rockies who have on their last 11 games thanks to sweeps of St. Louis, Milwaukee and Seattle.
Well enter the Rockies next victim as they play host to Tampa Bay who hit the road for the first time in a week and do so with a losing record on the highway at 13-19, including the Rays losing 7 of their last 8 on the road.
Now helping the Rockies will be the improved pitching of De La Rosa who under Jim Tracy has looking great by winning both of his last two starts for an ERA of 3.55.
Niemann will counter with his 4.12 ERA as the righty has only one win in his last four starts.
Go with the Rockies tonight as they make it 12 straight wins.
2♦ Colorado Rockies