SPORTS ADVISORS
Chicago Cubs (34-32) at Detroit (38-31)
The streaking Tigers send Edwin Jackson (6-4, 2.39 ERA) to the mound, while the Cubs will counter with ace Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.44) as these squads hook up for the first time in three years.
Chicago tallied 10 hits on Monday in a makeup game at Atlanta, but couldn’t push across a run, leaving 12 runners on base in a 2-0 loss. Prior to the shutout defeat, the Cubs had won four in a row thanks to an offense that exploded for 26 runs. Lou Piniella’s club has still won seven of 11 against right-handed starters, but it is also just 4-11 in its last 15 road games overall and 0-6 in its last six in American League parks.
Detroit took Monday off after edging Milwaukee 3-2 on Sunday for its fourth win in a row, all versus the N.L. Central. The Tigers’ four-game run has been sparked by an offense that’s produced 28 runs scored, and the surge comes after a 1-5 stretch in which they managed just 17 runs. Detroit is on positive streaks of 5-0 at home, 4-0 against right-handed starters, 49-21 in interleague action and 40-12 in interleague home games. On the downside, Detroit has lost seven of eight after a day off and 12 of its last 15 on Tuesday.
These teams last met in June 2006, with Detroit sweeping a three-game series at Wrigley Field, outscoring the Cubs 26-9. Detroit has won four straight meetings overall and six of eight since 2000, but the visitor is 7-1 during this stretch.
Zambrano is coming off his fourth straight quality start, holding the White Sox to three runs on six hits in seven innings Thursday, but he got a no-decision as the Cubs scored five runs in the final two innings for a 6-5 victory. Zambrano is 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his last four starts, and the big right-hander has allowed three runs or fewer in eight consecutive outings.
With Zambrano on the bump, Chicago is on upticks of 8-3 overall, 40-16 on the road, 5-2 in interleague play, 4-1 on Tuesday, 5-1 against the A.L. Central and 10-2 in series openers. He’s 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA in six road games this season, and he’ll be facing the Tigers for the first time in his career tonight.
Jackson’s tough luck continued Wednesday, as he gave up three runs in six innings but lost 4-3 in St. Louis. Jackson has yielded three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts, pitching at least six innings in seven of those contests, and he’s 5-2 with a 1.92 ERA during this stretch. Jackson is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six home starts this season, and like Zambrano versus the Tigers, the right-hander is making his first-ever start against the Cubs in this contest.
The under is 4-1 in Zambrano’s last five starts overall, but otherwise he’s on “over” streaks of 8-1 in interleague play, 5-1 against the A.L. Central and 4-0 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Jackson’s last six starts have stayed under the total.
The Cubs carry “under” trends of 21-9 overall, 7-1 on the highway, 10-2 against winning teams, 14-6 versus right-handed starters and 10-4-1 in series openers. Similarly, the Tigers are on “under” runs of 11-4 at home, 5-2 in interleague home games, 19-7 versus right-handed starters and 4-1 after an off day. However, five of the last six Cubs-Tigers clashes have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Philadelphia (36-31) at Tampa Bay (37-34)
Last year’s surprising World Series participants begin a three-game interleague series at Tropicana Field, with veteran Jamie Moyer (4-6, 6.35) slated to toe the slab for the Phillies against Rays phenom David Price (1-1, 3.46).
Philadelphia hits the road after a disastrous 1-9 homestand, all against teams from the A.L. East. The Phillies ended the homestand by getting swept in consecutive three-game series against the Blue Jays and Orioles, as they were outscored 38-19, ending with Sunday’s 2-1 loss to Baltimore. The good news for Philadelphia is it has by far baseball’s best road record at 23-9, compared with a 13-22 mark at home.
Dating to last season, the Phillies are 37-16 in their last 53 on the road, though they have dropped 19 of their last 28 in A.L. Parks and they’ve lost five straight games against left-handed starters.
Tampa Bay was idle Monday after ending a six-game road trip with consecutive wins over the Mets by scores of 3-1 on Saturday and 10-6 on Sunday. The Rays are on hot streaks of 8-3 overall, 79-32 at the Trop, 44-16 when hosting teams with a winning record, 9-3 as a favorite, 5-1 against lefty starters, 4-0 in interleague home games and 5-1 against the N.L. East.
Philadelphia needed only five games to oust Tampa Bay in last year’s Fall Classic and win its first World Series title since 1980. The Phillies won the opener 3-2 in Tampa, then the home team took the final four contests. Going back to 2000, these squads have met 12 times, with the host going 9-3. In fact, Philadelphia has lost five of its last six games at the Trop.
Moyer’s streak of three straight quality starts (2.84 ERA) came to a screeching halt in Wednesday’s 7-1 home loss to Toronto, as he gave up six runs on 10 hits in six innings.
The Phillies are 2-6 in Moyer’s last eight trips to the mound, 1-4 in his last five as an underdog and 1-4 in his last five interleague outings.
Moyer is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA in six road games this season and 8-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 15 career regular-season starts against the Rays. The 46-year-old southpaw also faced Tampa Bay in Game 3 of last year’s World Series, allowing three runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-4 Philadelphia win.
Price lasted a season-high seven innings at Colorado on Wednesday, but also surrendered season highs of five runs and 10 hits in a 5-3 defeat, though he didn’t walk a batter after issuing 18 free passes in his first five starts. The Rays have won both of Price’s home starts this year, with the lefty surrendering one run in five innings in each game (1.80 ERA). Price came out of the bullpen twice in the World Series last year against the Phillies and gave up two runs (one earned) in 3 1/3 innings.
Philadelphia is riding “under” streaks of 17-8-1 in interleague play, 6-0 in A.L. ballparks, 9-4 as an underdog, 9-4 against southpaw starters, 7-2-1 in series openers and 5-1-1 on artificial turf. Also, with Moyer pitching, the “under” is on runs of 6-0 overall, 4-0-1 in interleague action, 16-6-1 as an underdog and 9-2 as a road pup. Likewise, the “under” for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 4-1 overall (all in interleague play), 12-4-1 as a favorite, 24-9-1 in interleague home games, 25-11 at home against lefty starters and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Finally, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings in Tampa Bay, including 2-0 in last year’s Fall Classic.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
DUNKEL
Chicago Cubs at Detroit
The Tigers look to take advantage of a Cubs team that is 3-12 in its last 15 games as an underdog. Detroit is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135).
Game 901-902: St. Louis at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 16.197; NY Mets (Hernandez) 15.143
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Over
Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.689; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.408
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+155); Over
Game 905-906: Boston at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Penny) 15.199; Washington (Lannan) 15.510
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Under
Game 907-908: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 15.343; Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.245
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Over
Game 909-910: Cincinnati at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Owings) 14.237; Toronto (Tallet) 15.028
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-150); Over
Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 14.228; Detroit (Jackson) 15.541
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under
Game 913-914: NY Yankees at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Wang) 16.188; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.047
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+105); Over
Game 915-916: Baltimore at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Uehara) 15.741; Florida (Miller) 15.460
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Over
Game 917-918: Minnesota at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 14.313; Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.549
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-120); Under
Game 919-920: Kansas City at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 13.628; Houston (Ortiz) 14.728
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Under
Game 921-922: LA Dodgers at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.262; White Sox (Danks) 16.278
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-115); Over
Game 923-924: Texas at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 15.644; Arizona (Scherzer) 14.646
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+125); Under
Game 925-926: Colorado at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 16.403; LA Angels (O'Sullivan) 16.338
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Over
Game 927-928: San Francisco at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.954; Oakland (Mazzaro) 16.194
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over
Game 929-930: San Diego at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Gaudin) 15.005; Seattle (Olson) 14.545
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Over
WNBA
Phoenix at San Antonio
The Silver Stars look to snap a two-game skid against a Phoenix team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3).
Game 651-652: Chicago at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 104.761; Atlanta 111.925
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 155
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Over
Game 653-654: Phoenix at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 109.324; San Antonio 114.490
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 161
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 167 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under
Game 655-656: New York at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: New York 111.722; Minnesota 110.344
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 149
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 2 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2 1/2); Under
Matt Fargo
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
The Mets are struggling and the injuries are not helping but this is too good of a price to pass up when playing at home. New York is still a solid 19-13 at home this season and the pitching matchup is in its favor tonight and we get it at a low price and in some cases, an underdog price. Livan Hernandez is by no means a great pitcher but he is an inning eater and he is finally back at Citi Park to pitch. His last four starts have been up and down but all have come on the road where his ERA is 4.47 on the year compared to 3.55 at home. He has made two straight quality starts at home and will be looking for some revenge following a seven-run shellacking he took in St. Louis back in April. The Cardinals counter with Joel Pineiro who has been pitching pretty well but most of his success is the same as Hernandez and that is at home. He has a 2.32 ERA in six home starts but that ERA jumps to 5.27 in seven road starts where he is 2-5. Not only has he pitched back but St. Louis gives him little run support on the road as it is averaging only 3.8 rpg in those seven games. The Cardinals are only 2-10 in Pineiro’s last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and overall, they are 5-11 in their last 16 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. 3* New York Mets
Play on: New York
Cajun Sports
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Boston Red Sox
The Washington Nationals will play host to the Boston Red Sox for a three-game interleague series which features a Red Sox’s team that hasn’t played in our nation’s Capital since 1971. Boston has won their last four series heading into this matchup with the Nationals who have surprisingly won two of their last three series. Washington took two out of three games versus the Yankees in Gotham and then took two out of three from the Blue Jays at home. The Nationals will send John Lannan to the bump with his 4-5 W/L record and ERA of 3.38 on the season. The Nats will face a Red Sox pitching staff that has carried their team during the month of June with an ERA of 3.24. Washington is 8-21 W/L when installed as a home underdog and 8-22 W/L when Lannan takes the bump as an underdog. They are also only 6-20 W/L when Lannan is coming off a quality start in his last outing. Boston will send Brad Penny to the hill with his 6-2 W/L record and ERA of 4.94. Both of Penny’s last starts have been solid although he failed to get a decision after throwing six shutout innings against the Yankees but in his last outing against Florida he allowed one unearned run and three hits over five innings of work in a 6 to 1 win. Penny is 12-5 W/L with an ERA of 2.54 in twenty starts versus the Nationals. We have a few key angles that may have an impact on tonight’s contest. Boston is 9-0 W/L (+9.4) when playing with a day off this season and 10-0 W/L (+10.9) after five or more consecutive home games. Washington is 3-23 W/L (-19.9) when their bullpen has thrown for thirteen or more innings over their last three games the last two seasons. Boston is 22-9 W/L (+11.3) versus a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Red Sox win by 2.3 runs over the Nationals on Tuesday night. Our PPR and Math Model also project a Sox win so we will back the visitor here and the better team at this short price as they impose their will on a Nationals team that has played well above their skill level the last two series.
Graded Selection: 2* Boston Red Sox 4 Washington Nationals 1
Marc Lawrence
St Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets
The Mets host the Cardinals in Game Two of this four game series at when they send Livan Hernandez to the mound at Citi Field. Hernandez enters tonight's game in solid current form knowing he is 5-1 in his last 6 home starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts on Tuesdays. With the Mets standing 7-1 in their last 8 home games on Tuesday, look for Hernandez to continue his winning ways here tonight.
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Under
The White Sox are 0-8 OU as a favorite in the first game of a series and the Dodgers are 0-9 OU when Hiroki Kuroda starts when their line is within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date. Take these two UNDER.
JIIM FEIST
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Take SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Oakland starter Vin Mazzaro has thrown well in his short major league career, sneaking up on a lot of teams who haven't seen him. That's not the case here, however, as the Giants have beaten him this season (a 4.50 ERA against them). Meanwhile, the Giants go with ace Tim Lincecum (6-2, 2.72 ERA), fanning 112 in 96 innings. San Fran is in second place and just swept Texas. Great value with the established ace here. Play the Giants.
DAVE COKIN
COLORADO ROCKIES / LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Take COLORADO ROCKIES
The Rockies were my top play Monday night, and they came through by blowing away the Angels. This team is on a run that's very reminiscent of the one they put together back in 2007. Ubaldo Jimenez has been tremendous lately and he has to rate the edge over Halos rookie Sean O'Sullivan. The Angels have now lost three in a row following their own hot streak. There's not much value in the price, but there's also not much reason to get off the Rockies express right now.
Red Dog Sports
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Play Over 9
Huff and Ian Snell have combined for 12 overs and just 8 unders. Cleveland has a good offense and poor pitching and have 40 overs and just 29 unders this year. Huff's ERA is close to 7 while Snell's is 5.08. Cleveland is just 1-7 in their last 8 at Pittsburgh but we like the over in this meeting.
Nelly
Minnesota + over Milwaukee
Milwaukee was swept in three games at the Metrodome earlier this season and the Twins have had great success in this series in the last few years even though Milwaukee has been a solid team overall. Minnesota enters this series off a disappointing home series against Houston, losing the final two games including a game where they led most of the way. Minnesota has historically been one of the best interleague teams in baseball, going 50-17 in the last 67 games including winning seven of the last ten in Milwaukee. Francisco Liriano has been a disappointment this season but he has pitched better than his 2-8 record indicates. He has allowed just eight runs over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings and yet did not pick up a win for his efforts. Milwaukee is batting .247 at home against left-handed pitching this season and the Brewers are batting just .238 at Miller Park overall for the year. The Twins are batting .282 in the last ten games and Minnesota has won the past two road series despite poor numbers overall away from home. Jeff Suppan owns a 5.47 ERA at home this season and his WHIP is 1.56 which will be problematic against a very solid Twins offense that features several dangerous left-handed hitters. The Brewers are just 17-14 at home and despite a slightly better record, Minnesota appears to have the stronger overall team.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia at TAMPA BAY -155
You may not know it by Tampa's numbers, as only one of their last 5 games have gone OVER the total, but we have a strong feeling the hits and runs are going to be flying all over the Trop this Tuesday night.
The Phillies come to town having gone OVER in 5 of their last 8 games, and starter Jamie Moyer is coming off a start in which he allowed 6 runs in 6 innings of work.
For the season, Moyer's ERA stands at 6.35, and facing this Rays lineup could very well see a few more runs cross the plate.
Tampa will counter with David Price is fresh off allowing 5 runs in 7 innings in a loss at Colorado.
This is a World Series rematch, and tonight we look for the hitters to have their way, and for this meeting to sail OVER the posted price.
Play the OVER.
1♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Baltimore (pick) at FLORIDA
The Marlins are feeling pretty good about themselves right now, as they took 2 of 3 off the Yankees, and now get another AL East team in their home ball park for a 3-game set.
Problem is, Baltimore is playing some lights-out baseball right now, and a big part of it is their bullpen which has been near unhitable.
The Orioles have won 5 straight, and 7 of their last 8, and the G-Man is loading up on the O's to make it 6 straight, and 8 of 9.
Andrew Miller has allowed 7 runs over his last 11 innings, and right now the Orioles aren't missing too many balls left out over the plate during their current tear.
Koji Uehara hasn't been great, but he has at least kept his club in games, and the way the Baltimore pen has been producing, all we need to do is keep this one close, and let the Oriole bats do the rest.
G-Man backing the Orioles in this interleague meeting.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Jeff Benton
Kansas City -140 at HOUSTON
For Tuesday’s free play on the diamond, we’ll back the Royals in Houston against the Astros.
No doubt that Kansas City is struggling in a big way, losing five straight games – all in interleague action – while given up a whopping 53 runs in the process. There’s also no doubt that the team’s ace, Zack Greinke, is in a funk, too. He’s 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA in his last four starts (all Royals losses) after starting the season 8-1 with a ridiculous 0.84 ERA.
All this said, I refuse to give up on Greinke. Not only was the guy flat-out filthy through the first two months of this season, but he was unhittable over the last six weeks of 2008. I’m convinced he’s got a minor flaw in his delivery and he’ll get it corrected, and he’ll do so against a weak-hitting Astros team has scored more than four runs just seven times in its last 21 games, managing two runs or fewer in six of its last 12 contests.
Houston comes into tonight batting just .246 over its last 10 games, including .230 against right-handed pitching. On the other hand, while the Royals’ pitching staff has been a disaster lately, the offense has been solid, scoring five runs or more in seven of its last eight games. Tonight, that K.C. offense gets to face Russ Ortiz, who continues to do it with mirrors. Ortiz is 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA for the season, but he continues to play with fire, giving up 50 hits and 30 walks in just 50 innings on the mound (1.50 WHIP). At home, Ortiz has allowed 33 hits and 25 walks in just 35 innings (1.66 WHIP).
Opponents have a .371 on-base percentage against Ortiz, including a .387 OPB when playing in Houston and a .395 OBP in night games.
Bottom line: If you would’ve told me three weeks ago that I’d get Zack Greinke at this cheap of a price against Russ freakin’ Ortiz, I’d have bet my first AND second homes on Greinke and the Royals. Take the value with the road team here.
5♦ KANSAS CITY
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers +110 at CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Today's FREE selection takes us to the Windy City where we will play the Dodgers in town to take on the White Sox.
Chicago really struggles to score runs, especially at home, so let's take the Dodgers and the plus-money in this one.
The White Sox are 29th in the majors with a .219 batting average at home and last overall with just 117 runs scored in front of their home fans. They are 16-18 at home and they've lost nine of 13 overall. On the hill today for the White Sox is John Danks (5-5, 4.48 ERA) who held the Cubs to one run on five hits in seven innings of a 4-1 win on Wednesday.
The Dodgers might be making some headway in interleague play after taking two of three in their Freeway Series rivalry against the Angels over the weekend. They won Sunday's game 5-3 and now get a White Sox team that can't score.
Hiroki Kuroda (1-3, 3.86 ERA) is on the mound for the Dodgers, looking to get healthy against the light-hitting Sox. he missed almost two months with a strained oblique and he is 0-3 with a 4.43 ERA in his last four starts. He's never faced the White Sox.
Los Angeles is 21-14 on the road this seaosn and 6-2 in their last eight interleague games. Look for the Dodgers to get on top early and Kuroda to give them a quality start and the bullpen to bring it home. We're play Los Angeles in this one.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
Dominic Fazzini
Colorado +120 at LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Sean O’Sullivan was quite impressive in his first major league start last Tuesday, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings in the Angels’ 8-1 victory over the Giants.
The 21-year-old right-hander gets a second start today with Ervin Santana on the disabled list, and he’ll have a stiffer challenge facing him this time around.
O’Sullivan gets to face the red-hot Rockies, who have won 17 of 18 coming into tonight, including an 11-1 pounding of Los Angeles on Monday for their club-record ninth straight road win.
Colorado, which is 19-5 since firing manager Clint Hurdle on May 29 and replacing him with bench coach Jim Tracy, will send right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez (6-6, 3.73 ERA) to the mound.
Jimenez has won his last three starts while holding opposing batters to a .207 average, and his ERA in four June starts is 2.43. He allowed one run on six hits in 6 2/3 innings Thursday in a 4-3 win over Tampa Bay. And the slumping Angels, who have lost three straight home games and have never faced Jimenez, had just three hits Monday.
The Rockies should keep rolling tonight facing O’Sullivan. Go with Colorado to make it 18 of 19.
4♦ COLORADO