Bob Harvey
KC Royals vs Houston Astros
Believe it or not, Russ Ortiz is one reason why the Astros are enjoying a 12-7 month of June. Hang with Houston at home on Tuesday vs. Zach Greinke and the KC Royals.
I’m showing some love today for the Houston Astros who showed signs of life this weekend taking two out of three from the Twins in Minnesota. The Royals were one of baseball’s biggest surprises early as they bolted out of the gates with an 18-11 record. But since they’ve dropped 18 of their last 29 games.
Zach Greinke gets the call tonight for the Royals as he tries to regain the form that saw him get off to an 8-1 with an ERA under a buck. Now Greinke is 8-3 and the ERA is just under 2.00. Those numbers are still great but mirror the recent struggles of his team.
Russ Ortiz, who has had more bounce-backs than he can count, is trying for another one with Houston. Seven years ago Ortiz was a poor Dusty Baker decision away from winning a World Series ring, now he’s fighting for a job in Houston after stops in Atlanta and Arizona just to name two.
Ortiz is 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA and is a key cog in an Astros pitching machine that has lowered its team ERA nearly one full run over the past 20 games. The Astros are making a nice, quiet run right now and I don’t forseee a lumping Royals team slow them down.
Pick: Astros +128
The Spread
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Milwaukee's last 23 games at home
Pick: Minnesota
New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves
NY Yankees are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Pick: NY Yankees
San Francisco Giants at Oakland A’s
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Pick: San Francisco
John Ryan
Cleveland Indians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Cleveland Indians
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Cleveland as they face Pittsburgh slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 224-166 mark for 58% winners and has made 66.2 units since 1997. Play against home teams that lack in the power department averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game on the season and after a one run loss. Neither team playing well right now, but Pittsburgh is in worse shape. They have posted a 26-57 (-23.0 Units) mark against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Pirates coming off a sweep of Colorado losing 5-4 last night. David Huff will start for the Indians and has been effective over his last 3 starts. In his second to last start he went 7.3 IP against ST. Louis allowing just 3 ER on 6 hits. Snell is starting for the pirates and he has pitched well over his last 3 starts, but has been troubled by control and lack of run support in many of his starts. Snell will find it far more difficult against the Indians led by DeRosa who is batting 500 against Snell. Moreover, Snell throws FM 66% of the time and batters are nailing that pitch at a 331 clip. Take Cleveland to roll.
Freddy Wills
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Play: St. Louis Cardinals
Today we come back on our MLB POD from yesterday where we had the Cardinals. I'll be going with the Cards again here today as the line has moved since opening as Mets favorites the line has moved to the Cardinals as favorites. I'm liking the line movement relevant to the public %'s.
Along with the match ups here today. The Mets just simply can not continue to produce and win games with their lineup. They will have Fernando Martinez in the lineup playing CF today and he has already proved that he is not ready for the MLB, but the Mets have no choice. Wright has been very good, but his role is going to continue to get bigger and we'll see how he steps up, but I think teams will go away from pitching to him.
Pineiro has a solid start vs. the Mets this year 8IP 6H and 2ER while his counterpart Livan Hernandez pitched awful vs. Cards this year 4.1IP 9H 7ER. Pineiro has pitched well as of late with not much to show for with an 0-3 record in his last 3 starts despite a 3.44ERA. I can't see Omir Santos coming up with another 4-4 night to help the Mets win. Mets bullpen has continued to struggle 7.22 ERA last 10 games along with their 1-6 record in Game 2's Last 7.
Pujols 11-32 vs. Hernandez 3HR
Ankiel 2-3 HR
Duncan 2-3 HR
Should be enough protection to give the Cardinals some run support.
Other than Wright (5-12) nobody has good numbers vs. Pineiro.
Take Cards -115
DOC
Take Over between the Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream
You have the Dream who have revenge against the Sky from an earlier season loss this month. The Dream lost 73-81 in a game that was set at the Sky -4 and the total at 148. The Sky were able to win one at home while the game went over the posted total. Thus, the Dream have revenge today and will likely get it as they come off a tough loss to the Liberty. But, it is tough to go against the side of the Sky as well as they come off back to back losses on the road to the Sun and Washington. Rather, let's take the Over as the Sky's last 3 games have gone over the posted total while the Dream have gone over the posted total the last two games. I look for the Sky to still be an active dog as they come off a couple losses (which leads to overs) while the Dream to have revenge and play well as they too come off a loss. The over is 4-0 for the Sky after an ATS loss and the Overi s 4-0 for the Dream in their last 4 home games.
Jack Clayton
Padres at Mariners
Pick: Mariners
Mariners playing better, can't trust the Padres on the road. Plus, this SD starter Gaudin is awful, especially with too many free passes. Play the Mariners.
Jimmy The Moose
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay
Play: Under
The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 interleague road games. In their last 11 games as a road dog the under is 8-3. The under is 9-4 in their last 13 games vs. a left-handed starter. Philadelphia has played under the total in Moyer's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 interleague starts. The under is 8-3-1 in Tampa's last 12 home games. The under is 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a left-handed starter. In their last 17 games as a favorite the under is 12-4-1. The under is 4-1-1 in Philadelphia's last 6 trips to Tampa. Play the under.
Jr Tips
LA DODGERS vs. CHI-WHITE SOX
The Chicago White Sox will welcome the return of slugger Jim Thome to the starting lineup. Thome had gone deep in three of his last four home gamesand is second on the club with 12 homers. The White Sox (33-36) are 16-18 at home this season and return home after a 4-1 victory Sunday over Cincinnati. Thome and the White Sox will get their first look at Hiroki Kuroda, who hasn't won since coming off the disabled list on June 1st.The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.43 ERA in his last four starts. He's also 0-3 with a 6.11 ERA in three starts against the AL. Kuroda was tagged for five runs and seven hits in six innings allowing two homers and surrendered nine earned runs in 11 1/3 innings over his last two starts. Chicago's John Danks (5-5, 4.48) is coming off one of his best games of the season as the left-hander held the Cubs to one run and five hits with no walks and nine strikeouts in seven-plus innings to give Chicago a 4-1 victory over the Cubs in his last game. In Danks' only career start against Los Angeles, he allowed four hits and walked four in six innings of a 2-0 victory at Dodger Stadium.Over his last four starts against NL clubs, Danks has given up two runs in 25 innings for an 0.72 ERA. Kuroda is having a lot of problems finding his location and have been struggling of late. The White Sox will a plenty runners on the basepads tonight which will be trouble with slugger Jim Thome back in the lineback meanwhile danks has been automatic as of late.
TAKE CHI-SOX-120
Drew Gordon
LA Dodgers at CHI. WHITE SOX -115
Now on a 20-7 roll with the plays I'm giving away. For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the LA Dodgers/Chi. White Sox match-up.
Good spot here for the White Sox, who finished their road trip with back-to-back wins at Cincinnati. They return home to face the the cream of the crop, as they host the Dodgers for a 3-game set. However, before you go jumping on LA, note that both history and a solid pitching match up are on the White Sox side...
Not only are the White Sox an outstanding 8-1 over their L9 interleague home games, but the Dodgers are also a piss-poor 1-7 in their L8 meetings with the White Sox! In fact, the last time these two teams saw each other, none other than John Danks was on the hill, throwing 6 scoreless innings for the win
Speaking of Danks, the White Sox lefty gets the nod in this one, and if you saw him pitch over his L2 starts, you know he's been on point! Danks has allowed 3 runs on 10 hits over his last 14 1/3 innings, striking out 16 along the way! He may be just 1-3 at the Cell, but his ERA is a rock-solid 3.89, and I expect he'll build off his last two starts with another strong effort tonight. Also of note, he's been outstanding against the NL, posting an 0.72 ERA in his last 25 innings against them (4 starts).
On the flip side, the Dodgers Hiroki Kuroda has been anything but good lately, getting tagged for 9 runs over his last 11 1/3 innings. He was anything but effective in his last road start, at Texas, and that does not bode well tonight at the Cell. True, the White Sox offense isn't exactly a juggernaut, but the return of Jim thome to the lineup is definately a much needed boost. In the end, the Dodgers are damn good, but they've been vulnerable on the road in certain spots, and I expect this will be one of them.
Take the Chicago White Sox behind Danks over the LA Dodgers and Kuroda in this MLB match up.
2♦ CHI. WHITE SOX
Wunderdog
San Francisco at Oakland
Pick: UNDER 7
A pair of top notch young righthanders square off in Oakland tonight with Tim Lincecum facing rookie Vin Mazzaro. Lincecum has been lights out for the Giants this season with a 2.72 ERA on the season, but has been even better of late with a 1.91 ERA in his last four starts. Vin Mazzaro has been even better. Mazzaro has made four starts and has pitched to a 1.75 ERA. These two pitchers battled each other less than two weeks ago in a game that featured a total score of three runs. The Giants have been 24-9-3 to the under vs teams with a losing record, while the A's have been 6-1 in their last seven as a home dog. All four of Mazzaro's starts have gone under, and I look for this one to do the same. The UNDER gets the nod.
ROCKETMAN
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 18-30 last 3 years and 3-9 this year in Interleague play. Cleveland has lost six games in a row heading into tonight's contest. Cleveland bullpen has a 5.35 ERA on the road this year. Pittsburgh is hitting .293 as a team at home this year. David Huff is 2-2 with a 7.09 ERA overall this year and 1-2 with a 10.80 ERA on the road this season. Ian Snell has a 3.32 ERA his last 3 starts. Snell is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA overall vs Cleveland since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!
RJ Robbins
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Under 9
We are taking the Under. Texas is scoring 4.6 rpg on the road and Arizona is scoring 3.4 rpg against LHP. When playing a losing team the Rangers are 18-6 Under. UNDER 9
LARRY NESS
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
Seattle won the first two games at San Diego last week, before falling 4-3 in 10 innings on Thursday. The Mariners followed that series win by sweeping three games from last-place Arizona this past weekend in Seattle and now get set to host the struggling Padres again. Seattle is now back above .500 (35-34), climbing to within 1 1/2 games of the Angels and 2 1/2 games of the first-place Rangers in the AL West. As for the 30-38 Padres, they are 15 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and their 9-23 road record is better than only the Nationals' 8-24 mark. The Padres are a ML-worst 2-7 in interleague play and own a ML-worst .235 team batting average. Other than that, the Padres are "hitting on all cylinders." The Padres will start Chad Gaudin, who is 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA this year and has yet to win in June. He's 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in four appearances (three starts), since winning 5-2 at Colorado on May 31. His road ERA is 6.87 and there is little reason to think he will have much success here, as Gaudin has lost his last three starts against the Mariners, posting a 5.00 ERA. The Mariners will go with Garrett Olson (2-1, 4.23 ERA), who did pitch two-thirds of an inning in relief just two days ago. The lefty allowed three ERs on two hits (both HRs) in six innings of last Wednesday's 4-3 win at San Diego. Olson is 2-1 with a 4.76 ERA in five starts (Mariners are 2-3) and 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA in seven relief outings so far in 2009. I've never been a big fan of playing on pitchers being shuttled in and out of a rotation but the Padres are such a mess on the road plus in Gaudin, start a pitcher who looks to be "going nowhere." Meanwhile, the Mariners are playing well and figure to take advantage of the sad-sack Padres fairly easily in this game and maybe the whole series. However, that's getting ahead of myself. For tonight, play the Mariners.
BEN BURNS
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Over 9
Both these starters were solid in their last start. However, neither bring very impressive overall stats to the table. Owings is 1-4 with a poor 4.86 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road. Tallet, who is pitching on 3-day's rest, has an ugly 5.71 ERA at home. In his last start here, he gave up eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Including that 9-4 loss, the Jays have seen six of their last nine games eclipse the total. Don't be surprised if this one also proves higher-scoring than many are expecting. Consider the OVER
Mike Rose
Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers Under 8.5
Carlos Zambrano tossed his fourth straight quality start his last time out against the Chicago White Sox. He threw seven innings of three-run ball allowing six hits (1 HR) while striking out three and walking just as many. Big Z is 1-1 with a 2.20 ERA in five starts since returning from the DL. Surprisingly, hes been at his best away from Wrigley Field where he sports a 3-1 mark with a 2.58 ERA allowing 28 hits and just 11 ERs in 38.1 total innings of work. The Cubs are 4-2 in his six road outings, and this will be the first time hes ever stared back at a Detroit line-up.
Edwin Jackson has been a godsend for the Tigers rotation in 09. Coming off a 14 win season for the Tampa Bay Rays a year ago, Jackson has flourished donning the Tigers uniform as he stands 6-4 with miniscule 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 14 overall starts. What a 1-2 punch with Mr. Verlander! Hes 3-1 carrying a 3.00 ERA allowing 33 hits and just 14 ERs with a K/BB ratio of 32/12 in 42 total innings of work at Comerica. He pitched well enough to win his last outing at St. Louis, but his offense let him down once again. Overall this season, the Tigers attack has averaged scoring just 3.79 runs in his 14 overall starts.
What a match-up of power righties we have in store for us tonight! Both Zambrano and Jackson have been dealing of late. With the under 12-18-2 in Chicagos 32 road games and it going 13-16-2 in Tigers home games this year, expect another pitchers duel tonight! The unders also cashed in four of Zambranos six starts as a visitor, and its a $$$-making 9-3-2 in Jacksons 14 overall starts. Pitching dominates Game 1 of this three-game baseball betting set!!!