Two Team Focus
By Josh Jacobs
The saying goes pitchers can be hit or miss on any given day. The problem afflicting bettors is starting staffs are such a detrimental factor that it helps to know as much as possible in a particular pitching matchup.
It's business as usual as Thursday brings with it several key pitching duels. On top of profiling pitching, here’s where several teams stand and what they will be looking forward to in the coming days.
St Louis (30-22, +463)
The Cardinals have had their fare share of problems against division rival, Cincinnati. Dropping three of five in head-to-head play by an average run margin of minus-one full run, St. Louis finds itself struggling on the hill. From Kyle Lohse to Adam Wainwright, starters have combined to produce an underachieving, 6.18 ERA. And then there’s a WHIP no lower then 1.71 attached to four relievers logging in at least two innings of work in this matchup. The conclusion here is that despite an offense scoring 4.6 runs per game, the pitching woes have played a fundamental role in the 2-3 record versus the Reds.
Thursday will bring Chris Carpenter (3-0, 0.62 ERA) to the forefront of Game 3 in this series. You would think that a 2.47 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in nine career starts versus Cincinnati would have yielded more wins then losses, but the truth is a 3-3 record has been the end result. The last opportunity to prove himself in this head-to-head saga was back in 2006. Carpenter went a full nine innings, grabbing the complete game and picking up the 5-0 shutout win. Four hits and six strikeouts completed the near perfect outing.
Before a 5-3 win in favor of the Reds on Monday (the total closed the books at 8 ½) the ‘over’ has been a bonafide winner, going a perfect 7-0 beginning on September of 2008 and ending May 10 of this year. Books have been consistent on setting totals in this matchup, posting eight to 8 ½-runs on the board in seven of the last nine clashes.
Look Ahead: Finishing up with Cincinnati on Thursday, the Cardinals will host Colorado at home in a long, four-game series. St. Louis has starred in one, four-game set this year, beginning the season against Pittsburgh. The Cards ended up slitting two of two as a favorite in all four. In 2008, the Redbirds went an even, 3-3 versus the Rockies, posting a 3.69 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. A .284 BA, 4.3 runs scored per game and six long balls was posted, leading to a 4-3 ‘under’ edge. The Cards were favorites in just three of the seven head-to-head gamed played against Colorado.
Despite the past results in this matchup, be keen to the fact that the Rockies have tanked in six of their last eight. Surely giving up 6.3 runs per game during this stretch has been a large force behind the problems. This won’t help out a team ERA ranking 25th worst in the league at 4.81. The ‘over’ in Coors Field is 15-7-1 compared to Colorado striking gold on the ‘under’ on the road at 16-9-3.
Philadelphia (30-20, +651)
The Phillies will depart from 100 Park Boulevard in San Diego enroute north to Los Angeles. Another four-game series is scheduled to begin on Thursday and it involves Philadelphia going up against the L.A. Dodgers in hostile territory.
We’ll begin this breakdown by stating that the Phillies are on fire on the road, attracting wagering action because of an 18-6 record. This is officially the club's first week of travel out to the West Coast this year. But taking a sample from 2008 reveals that Philly had problems out west after finishing the regular season with a 6-11 performance (this included a four-game set out in Arizona). However, when it mattered most the Phillies pulled through, taking two of three from the Dodgers on the road in the NL Championship series.
Next is the obvious shortcoming off the pitching staff. Tossing the ball for a 4.98 ERA on the season is just the beginning of a 4.79 ERA problem when traveling. Starting slingers Brett Myers and Joe Blanton may be 7-1 away from home this year, but a 4.78 ERA supplemented by a whopping 15 homers allowed should be translating into a much worse scenario.
Philadelphia has picked up the slack from the plate where the lineup has been red hot. The batting order has registered a .282 BA, .853 OPS and a most impressive, 6.5 runs scored per game (5.6 runs per game on the year) in opposing ballparks. Despite this offensive drive the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the last eight road games.
Gearing up for a 10:10 p.m. EDT start, the Phillies will expect good things out of Cole Hamels (3-2, 5.21). The lefty starter is 3-0 in his last five starts. During this period, Hamels has allowed three runs or less in four of those outings. His four quality starts on the season have been overshadowed by his worst performance on the season last Saturday. In that start, Hamels was shelled versus Washington for six runs off eight hits and one homer.
But Hamels has been dogged by right-handed hitters. We're talking about righties going to town for a .343 BA. Adding insult to injury is Hamel's allowing batters to cash in with a .358 BA on the road. There's no questioning that this will be an uphill climb for the Philly's slinger.
Look Ahead: Games 2 through 4 will be difficult spots for the Phillies. Their opponent, the Dodgers, are 13-5 in the second game of a series and 10-5 in Game 3s. On top of that L.A. is a blinding, 39-14 in its last 53 home games. This is a club in possession of the best home record in both leagues, benefiting from players like Orlando Hudson (.329 BA/32 RBIs) and Casey Blake (.299/34 RBIs).
While the Dodgers are 5-3 on the ‘under’ in their last eight games, the Phillies have pulled the other way by hitting the ‘over’ eight times in the last 11. The ‘under’ is also 7-5-1 in the last 13 head-to-head matchups. L.A. already owns the 2-1 edge in head-to-head action this season, outscoring Philadelphia 14-5 in the last two gatherings. Going back to Philadelphia pitcher, Cole Hamels, two runs and seven hits sacrificed against the Dodgers back on May 14 earned him a no decision. The Phillies ended up dropping the contest at home, 5-3.
Some other tidbits before departing: Philadelphia is up +12.84 units, the pitching staff has struggled with a 4.89 ERA (starters at 5.87 ERA) and the offensive is averaging a .263 BA when coming off a loss the game before. This is compared to L.A. racking up a 3.85 ERA, a .292 BA and scoring 6.2 runs per game in the same situation (coming off a loss). This has accounted for the Dodgers bringing home the bacon, going up +13.97 units on the season when coming off a loss.
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