Understanding Control
by: Jim Feist
Having control is essential for sports bettors. The smart bettor has control over his or her finances and is in control enough not to bet too much on one game. For example, if an undisciplined bettor loses three bets in a row all on afternoon baseball games, he might come back and bet twice as much as he lost on one game in the evening, an all out offensive to try and break even. This is foolish, and you will end up in the poorhouse before you ever get near the penthouse.
In baseball, control also refers to a pitcher's ability to throw strikes. It is important for sports bettors to understand this kind of control, because it can be a useful handicapping tool for estimating sides and totals.
Pitchers with great control have the talent to throw a baseball consistently for strikes. If the count is 2-and-0, a hard-throwing pitcher like C.C. Sabathia or soft-thrower like Tim Wakefield have enough command to come back with strikes so as not to walk the batter. Walks are a huge no-no with coaches and pitchers who have a tendency to walk batters throw more pitches in less innings, allowing the opposition more bases-runners, which can lead to more runs.
Sabathia and several of the Minnesota Twins starters are remarkable at not allowing walks and their control is directly tied to their success. Former ace Curt Schilling was a great example of the value of control. One season, Schilling walked 33 batters in 259 innings. Schilling started 35 games, meaning he walked less than one batter per start! That is a remarkable statistic and control was a big part of his success.
Contrast this to someone like Anthony Reyes, who has made 8 starts for the Indians. He has walked 23 batters in 38 innings, a terrible ratio. He has no complete games, walking too many means you are throwing too many pitches, and an ERA over six.
Newcomers to MLB from Japan have had mixed control results, partly because the Japanese league nibbles around the corners to avoid contact. Former Dodger starter Kazuhisa Ishii walked 104 batters in just 159 innings in 2002. Ishii didn't allow many hits and was a good strikeout pitcher, but his ERA was relatively high (4.27) largely because of his propensity for allowing free passes. Hideo Nomo used to walk a lot of batters, as does current Japanese import Daisuke Matsuzaka. On the other hand, his teammate in Boston, revliever Hideki Okajima, has excellent control and rarely walks batters.
It also helps with innings pitched. In 2002 Schilling averaged 7.4 innings per start, while Ishii averaged just 5.5 IP per start. Bettors knew that Schilling was likely to pitch into the eighth inning, but Ishii would likely be gone by the sixth. So, if you are wagering on Ishii you had better have quality relief pitching rested and available, or you might make a play against the Dodgers if they overused their best relief pitchers the night before.
In 2009 Cleveland Indian pitchers walk a high percentage of batters, the most in the majors, followed by the Nationals, Marlins, Dodgers and Tigers. It is tough to have a winning record with a staff that walks batters, but the Dodgers and Tigers are in first place -- for now.
Some pitchers feel more comfortable at home than on the road and even the dimensions of ballparks can be a useful tool. One season when Kerry Wood pitched at home in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field, the Cubs went 9-5 OVER the total. Pitchers who walk too many batters can provide good OVER spots in small parks. Statistics are an essential element in successful sports handicapping, as long as you know how to use them properly. Combining the right mixture of numbers and angles can help you get a leg up on the bookies and oddsmakers.