Updated 2012 Home Run Derby Odds to Win – Jose Bautista Remains Favored
By Anthony Rome
KANSAS CITY, MO (The Spread) – The field in the 2012 Home Run Derby has changed since the opening odds were released. Let’s check out the updated odds for tonight’s home run bash.
Oddsmakers list Toronto Blue Jays’ slugger Jose Bautista as the remaining favorite at 13/4, while Prince Fielder of the Detroit Tigers has the next best odds at 17/4. New York Yankees’ second baseman Robinson Cano is also 17/4 while Mark Trumbo of the Los Angeles Angels is 5/1.
Both Carlos Beltran of the St. Louis Cardinals and Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers are 6/1, respectively, while Colorado Rockies’ left fielder Carlos Gonzalez is 7/1. Pittsburgh Pirates’ centerfielder Andrew McCutchen is the new long shot at 8/1.
When the opening odds were released, Bautista was 7/2 while Fielder was 5/1 and both Cano and Beltran were 11/2, respectively. Kemp and Trumbo were 6/1, respectively, while Gonzalez was the long shot at 13/2. Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton was 4/1, but he has since been replaced by McCutchen because of an injury.
Oddsmakers have also released prop odds surrounding this year’s Home Run Derby. American League players are –190 to win this year’s Derby while the National League players, as a group, are +155. Bautista is also favored to hit the most home runs in Round 1 at 13/4, while McCutchen is favored to hit the least home runs in Round 1 at 7/2 odds.
You can watch tonight's Home Run Derby at 8:00PM ET on ESPN.
Jose Bautista 13/4
Prince Fielder 17/4
Robinson Cano 17/4
Mark Trumbo 5/1
Carlos Beltran 6/1
Matt Kemp 6/1
Carlos Gonzalez 7/1
Andrew McCutchen 8/1
Capping the MLB All-Star Home Run Derby
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
Few moments in sports announce themselves like the home run.
The sharp crack of the bat draws every eye in the ballpark to the exchange at home plate, followed by a brief moment of silence as the crowd watches in amazement as the ball lifts high above the field, growing into a roar as it soars over the outfield fence and plunks itself into a sea of outstretched hands.
It’s the best thing in baseball, which is why the home run, dinger, long ball, round tripper, four-bagger, big fly, moon shot, tater, and going yard is celebrated every summer during the MLB All-Star Game.
The field is set for the annual MLB All-Star Home Run Derby, and that means odds are also out for the event scheduled at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City Monday night.
Eight major league sluggers will be vying for the home run crown. Here’s a look at the field and our favorites to win:
Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (27 home runs) +350
Joey Bats started the schedule slowly but has erupted at the plate in recent weeks. Bautista, the 2011 season home run king, caught fire with 14 homers in June and has the most HR heading into Thursday’s games. He participated in last year’s derby but only hit a disappointing four out of Chase Field in Arizona. Bautista did manage to hit one home run during a four-game stop in KC earlier this season.
Robinson Cano, New York Yankees (20 home runs) +500
The defending derby winner paid off at nearly +900 last summer, socking 32 total dingers -12 in the final – to edge Adrian Gonzalez. Cano has hit 13 of his 20 home runs inside Yankee Stadium, where routine fly balls turn into round-trippers with a gust from the baseball Gods. He may be lacking that extra push at Kauffman Stadium.
Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels (20 home runs) +550
The Angels’ addition of Albert Pujols has been good and bad for Trumbo. The bad, Trumbo was forced to move to third base where he got eaten up like a Snickers bar. The good, he’s seeing a lot more pitches hitting behind Pujols, which is why he’s got 20 homers at the break after hitting 29 all of last season. Trumbo has been consulting with 2003 derby winner and former Halo Garret Anderson, who beat Pujols in the finals that year.
Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers (12 home runs) +600
You know how a lot of batters complain that the home run derby messes with their swing in the second half of the schedule? Well, maybe it can work in reverse for Fielder, who has been downright lifeless in his first year in Detroit. He won the 2009 derby at +500 but has only two home runs in his last 23 games, with the last coming on June 26.
Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals (20 home runs) +750
Beltran’s big bat had them saying “Albert who?” in Missouri through the first chunk of the schedule, hitting 15 of his 20 jacks in April and May. Those old knee issues have cooled off the Cardinals outfielder, with just five home runs in his past 110 at-bats heading into Thursday. The switch hitter will likely take his hacks from the left side, where he’s more powerful, and does have inside info on Kauffman Stadium, having played for the Royals.
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies (17 home runs) +800
A home run derby title for Gonzalez is about the only thing Rockies fans can cheer for these days, and according to the odds, even that’s a long shot. He had a bit of a knee scare in June and isn’t a pure power hitter. His home run total is inflated thanks to the thin air at Coors Field, where Gonzalez has hit 12 of his 17 home runs this season.
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers (12 home runs) +900
Kemp hasn’t played since May 30 due to a nagging hamstring injury and if the Dodgers brass had any smarts, they would sit their star for the entire All-Star Break. Sure, he’s the captain of the National League, but he only mustered two homers in last year’s derby – and that was at 100 percent. Hopefully, Kemp will come to his senses and take a seat for another NL slugger – Bryce Harper perhaps?
Picks to win:
1. Trumbo +550
2. Bautista +350
3. Fielder +600
2012 HR Derby Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Dimensions of Kauffman Stadium:
Left field and right field: 330 feet
Power alleys: 385 feet
Center field: 410 feet
Starting at the Metrodome in 1985, Major League Baseball has held the Home Run Derby on the Monday of All-Star Week. Over the years this event has had many changes as to the rules and how the winner was determined. Last year the format was revised so that team captains selected the sides for the American and National League. Leading the American League will be 2011 champion Robinson Cano of the Yankees, while Matt Kemp of the Dodgers will lead the National League.
This contest is comprised of eight hitters with the top four advancing to the second round. The first-round totals carry over and the two hitters with the most home runs in the two rounds advance to the finals where totals are reset to zero.
Home Run Derby Notes:
Kauffman Stadium is symmetrical with the same distance down both lines (330 feet) and identical power alleys (385 feet). Although the home-run rate in K.C. is higher than it has been in the past, this is not an easy park to go deep.
Six of the past seven Derby winners have been left-handed batters, including the past four champions -- Cano (2011), David Ortiz (2010), Prince Fielder (2009) and Justin Morneau (2008). Since the first individual competition in 1995, Vladimir Guerrero (2007), Miguel Tejada (2004), Sammy Sosa (2000) and Frank Thomas (1995) are the only righties to win.
Kauffman Stadium Home Runs Per Game Last Six Seasons
2012 - 1.02, 14th in majors
2011 - 0.71, 29th in majors
2010 - 0.92, 19th in majors
2009 - 0.76, 27th in majors
2008 - 0.79, 29th in majors
2007 - 0.90, 20th in majors
JOSE BAUTISTA, Blue Jays (5/2) - Bats Right
The Toronto outfielder has 27 HR, which are tied with Josh Hamilton for the most in the majors this season. Since the start of 2010, he has 124 homers, which are 32 more than anybody else in baseball. This will be Bautista's second Home Run Derby, and he didn't perform very well in 2011, hitting just four homers and failing to advance past the first round. His odds do not provide enough juice to place a large wager on, but he will certainly provide a better showing than he did in 201
Season Home Runs: 27
Career Home Runs: 183
Career at Kauffman Stadium: 2 HR in 64 AB
ROBINSON CANO (7/2), Yankees - Bats Left
The Yankees second baseman is making his second appearance in the HR Derby, taking home the championship in 2011 with 32 homers, which tied the third-highest total ever. He smacked eight bombs in Round 1, 12 HR in Round 2 and also hit 12 homers in the Finals. Cano has hit just seven road homers this year (13 at home), but one of his road shots was in Kansas City. All the pressure will be on the defending champ. but The last hitter to post back-to-back titles was Ken Griffey Jr. in 1998 and 1999.
Season Home Runs: 20
Career Home Runs: 164
Career at Kauffman Stadium: 3 HR in 115 AB
PRINCE FIELDER (4/1), Tigers - Bats Left
The Tigers first baseman is making his fourth HR Derby appearance. After hitting just three homers in his first Derby in 2007, Fielder won the event in 2009, hitting 23. He also competed last year, advancing to the second round, but totaling just nine homers in the two rounds. He's entering this contest red-hot, homering in three of his past four games, and with his past experience and success.
Season Home Runs: 15
Career Home Runs: 244
Career at Kauffman Stadium: 0 HR in 24 AB
MARK TRUMBO (9/2), Angels - Bats Right
After smacking 29 homers as a rookie last year, Trumbo hit his 22nd longball of the year on Sunday. Trumbo has more road homers (26) than taters at home (25) in his brief career, which includes his one longball in 25 at-bats in Kansas City.
Season Home Runs: 22
Career Home Runs: 51
Career at Kauffman Stadium: 1 HR in 25 AB
MATT KEMP (5/1), Dodgers - Bats Right
Kemp has been on the Disabled List since May 31 due to a hamstring injury, but has been rehabbing in Triple-A and will be ready to return to the Dodgers after the All-Star Break. Kemp's first Derby appearance came in 2011, but it didn't last long, as Kemp managed to hit a field-low two homers.
Season Home Runs: 12
Career Home Runs: 140
Career at Kauffman Stadium: 0 AB
CARLOS BELTRAN (11/2), Cardinals - Bats Both
Beltran provides great value at 11-to-2 for a couple of reasons. He has the most career homers of anybody in this field, and knows Kauffman Stadium well, having played there for 6½ years to start his career and clubbing 61 bombs in his former home stadium. His most recent longball in K.C. came this season when his Cardinals finished a three-game set there on June 24. He's also the lone switch-hitter in the field, which provides another edge for him, but he'll likely bat right-handed exclusively since his career home-run rate as a lefty (1 HR per 22.9 AB) is much worse than right-handed (1 HR per 19.7 AB). The only negative about Beltran, who is making his first Derby appearance, is that he has just one homer in his past 21 games, including 12 straight without a deep fly.
Season Home Runs: 20
Career Home Runs: 322
Career at Kauffman Stadium: 61 HR in 1,568 AB
CARLOS GONZALEZ (6/1) - Bats Left
The Rockies outfielder has been in a huge home-run drought lately, not homering since June 15, which spans 19 games and 74 at-bats. He also has just four career at-bats in Kansas City and has never participated in a Home Run Derby contest. Gonzalez has always been much more potent in thin-air Colorado (64 HR, .625 slugging) than on the road (30 HR, .431 slugging) in his career.
Season Home Runs: 17
Career Home Runs: 94
Career at Kauffman Stadium: 0 HR in 4 AB
ANDREW McCUTCHEN (8/1) - Bats Left
McCutchen is certainly the underdog in this event as the replacement for injured Giancarlo Stanton. He has never hit more than 23 homers in a season, but he is shattering that pace this season with 18 bombs at the Break. McCutchen's career HR rate on the road is a mere 1 HR per 29.5 at-bats.
Season Home Runs: 18
Career Home Runs: 69
Career at Kauffman Stadium: 0 AB