Washington is a Bad Bet

Washington is a Bad Bet
By Doug Upstone

Here's a news flash, the Washington Nationals are the worst team in baseball. OK, not exactly man bites dog material, but aren't you curious what makes them so bad? Consider right today, they are on pace to have 47-115 record for the season. That would be the worst record since Detroit lost 119 games in 2003 and among the worst since 162-game schedule came into existence. To date, Washington has lost -25.1 units for the sports bettor, which places them at or very near to Arizona's -60.1 units pace in 2004, which is the standard bearer since 1997.

Just how inept are the Nationals? Start with they are already -93 in runs scored and runs allowed in 2009 (Thru June 24). Why this is important is because they are being outscored by 1.35 runs per game, almost measuring up to the run line on a nightly basis, which includes their victories. The next worst team is San Diego at -72 RS/RA, which is a difference of a whopping 29 percent. For those that that have been betting against Washington on a regular basis, their average margin of loss is OVER three runs per game, that's AVERAGE.
Since Third Eye Blind had the hit song “Semi-Charmed Life”, 11 teams have lost 28 or more units in a season. There are those that believe playing on the very worst teams in Major League Baseball after the All-Star break since they can't play any worse and the better clubs won't take them seriously and you could pick up a +220 underdog winner and cash now and again.

While that sounds really enticing, if you happen to see such an article or piece in a forum or website, email the writer and ask if you could their money to chase those bets. Bad teams as just that, bad.

So what is Washington's problem? In all honesty it's not really the offense's fault, though they deserve some of the blame.

The Nationals rank 20th in runs scored at 4.26 per game, not great, but without a doubt better than Seattle at 3.9 per outing. Washington is 22nd in home runs and their hitters have a very good eye with three balls in the count, averaging 4.1 walks per game, second only to Boston, who is the best in baseball. They do have free swingers and any team with Adam Dunn is going to be ringing up strikeouts and the Nationals total 7.9 per game, which is 26th. Manager Manny Acta's club lacks clutch hitters, ranking dead last in runners left on base at 8.1 per nine innings.

If it's not the hitting, it must be pitching and is it ever.

The Nationals front office made the decision they were not going to win with retread pitchers who couldn't hold jobs with other clubs, thus they decided to throw their youngsters into the fire and live with the consequences. That means John Lannon, Colin Balester, Ross Detwiler, Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmerman, who are all 24 years old or younger, would be thrown to the wolves and see how they would survive. As expected, the results haven't been good on almost any level.
Washington surrenders 5.6 runs per game, which is 30th overall. The Nats staff is pounded for 9.5 runs per contest (27th) and concedes the second most extra bases hits at 3.6 PG. The starters are 29th in Quality Starts, with only neighboring Baltimore worse.

With so many youngsters, finding the strike zone on consistent basis figured to be an issue and it is. They allow 4.2 free passes per game (30th) and total 5.6 strikeouts (28th), making it less than challenging to determine Washington is last in K/W ratio.

While the front office wants to develop scare tissue on its kiddie corps, they also keep them on a shorter leash, keeping track of pitch counts. With this many young arms, they build pitch counts quickly, exposing a bullpen ill-equipped to handle the workload. The pen has an ERA of 5.45, which suggests even if the Nationals have a lead late in games, they would be prone to losing leads and they have. Washington's non-starters have blown 17 saves (which includes more than one in the same game) out of 28 chances, coming in an outlandish 39.2 save percentage. This worn-out group lacks ability and isn't helped by being just one of four teams in baseball with a single shutout.

Other pitching factors including being 28th in first pitch strikes and they lead the majors in four ball walks.

It's apparent Washington is in for very L O N G season and they could threaten the 1962 Mets record of 120 losses, though are not likely to finish 60.5 games out of first place like Casey Stengel's squad did when their were no divisions. The Nationals figure to possibly come close to Arizona's futility concerning wagering of five years ago at current pace as Play Against team supreme.

The jettison of manager Acta is a foregone conclusion, with the idea of starting a pool and let people pick dates for his departure sort of fun in a morbid way. In a city built on winning at (not the sports teams) any cost, the Nationals are a bad fit.