Watch the Stragglers
The Gold Sheet
Except for perhaps dealing a quality part that might come in handy for a contending team, conventional wisdom would indicate that the likes of the Orioles, Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Pirates would have little or nothing to do with the pennant races as the stretch drive of the 2010 MLB campaign looms on the horizon. Which would seem pretty obvious considering that the quartet is a combined 104 games below .500 as of July 21.
Yet, even short of being the proverbial "sellers" at the trade deadline, we suggest that these stragglers will have a lot of say-so in how the various division and wild card races play out in both leagues.
A quick look at the remaining MLB schedule can prove enlightening, if only because we can see which teams are going to benefit by facing this collection of punching bags in the final 2+ months of the season. And some squads are going to be able to take advantage more than others as the campaign approaches its conclusion. Those looking at "futures" bets for the remainder of the season would also be well-advised to take note of which of these soft touches are going to show up most often on the schedules of the contenders over the next ten or so weeks.
Of course, as always, things can change, and if by chance the Pirates or Orioles catch an updraft, they might not prove the easy touches they have mostly been for the first three and a half months of the campaign. Keep in mind that we would have been quick to include Cleveland in any such grouping of stragglers just a few weeks ago, but the Tribe has caught fire lately, evidenced by a recent 4-game sweep of the Tigers and similar problems caused to the Twins this week. If anything, Cleveland now looms as a definite spoiler as the stretch drive approaches. Likewise, we recall last season's Padres, who for a while looked as if they were en route to a 100-loss season before playing some inspired ball after the All-Star break, which has ironically carried over to this season. Pay attention to current form, as even the most subpar of teams can change course.
For the moment, however, there's no reason to expect much of a renaissance in Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh, or Arizona. Following is a look at these aforementioned stragglers, and which teams will benefit from facing them the most often over the remainder of the season.
BALTIMORE...Although that brief and unexpected revival at Texas before the All-Star break (when the Rangers were shockingly swept over a 4-game series) suggested that it might be dangerous for the Orioles to be overlooked, subsequent form indicates that uprising in Arlington was just a blip on the radar screen. Baltimore rallied Tuesday night vs. the Rays, but it was its first win after 4 straight losses after the break, swept again at home by the Blue Jays before losing the first of a midweek set at home vs. Tampa Bay. Moreover, Baltimore is losing touch in most of its recent losses, as its beleaguered pitching staff continues to suffer, and the managerial situation figures to be a question mark the rest of the way, with Juan Samuel the most interim of skippers, and the Angelos' apparently courting almost anyone who will listen (Buck Showalter among the many rumored targets) to take over next season. With the team also a likely seller as the trade deadline approaches (Ty Wigginton, Miguel Tejada, and even Nick Markakis being mentioned as possible "movers" by July 31), don't expect any meaningful reinforcements to show up. The one entry that could really make some hay at the O's expense is Tampa Bay, which, including today's game, still has a whopping 10 games still to go vs. Baltimore, six of those at The Trop (although the Rays have offered better value on the road this season). Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox both only get to see the O's six more times in home-and-home series. Within the division, the O's entered July 21 with a 10-31 record. Outside of the AL East, Texas will have a chance to avenge its 4-game sweep at home when it visits Camden Yards for another 4-game set August 19-22, and the Angels still have six games remaining with the O's. Baltimore also figures to have something to say about the AL Central race as it faces Detroit (7 times) and the White Sox (7 times) in a pair of series, as well as a 4-game set vs. the Twins at Camden Yards.
Games remaining for contenders vs. Orioles: Rays-10 (at Baltimore July 21, Sept. 3-4-5; at Tampa Bay August 13-14-15, September 27-28-29); Red Sox-6 (at Baltimore Aug. 31, Sept. 1-2; at Boston Sept. 20-21-22); Yankees-6 (at New York Sept. 6-7-8. at Baltimore Sept. 17-18-19); Tigers-7 (at Detroit Sept. 10-11-12, at Baltimore Sept. 30, Oct. 1-2-3); White Sox-7 (at Baltimore Aug. 6-7-8-9, at Chicago Aug. 24-25-26); Twins-4 (at Baltimore July 22-23-24-25); Angels-6 (at Baltimore Aug. 3-4-5, at Anaheim Aug. 27-28-29); Rangers-4 (at Baltimore Aug. 19-20-21-22).
SEATTLE...The Mariners, arguably baseball's most disappointing team, appear to be unfurling the white flag, with hopes for this season long since extinguished, and the trade of Cliff Lee to the Rangers further confirming Seattle's declining intentions for 2010. The futures of manager Don Wakamatsu and GM Jack Zduriencik could also be on the line between now and the start of October; given that this year's team continues to make baserunning mistakes, possesses no power, and has a clubhouse on edge with the potential powderkeg of Milton Bradley lurking in the corner, we'd say that the Seattle braintrust ought to be worried. The Mariners have been particularly wretched on the road as of July 21 (15-32), although they've been a bit better at Safeco Field (21-26) through the same date. AL West leader Texas gets ten more cracks at the Mariners, although seven of those will be coming in Seattle; the Angels get only a pair of three-game series vs. the M's. Yet the team that could really take advantage of Seattle isn't even in the West, as the Red Sox still have a whopping ten games to go vs. Seattle, with seven of those at Safeco Field. The Yankees and Tampa Bay, by comparison, get only three each. Meanwhile, the Twins have six to go vs. Seattle, the White Sox have five left, while the other AL Central contender, Detroit, is finished with the Mariners for the season.
Games remaining for contenders vs. Mariners: Rangers-7 (at Arlington Aug. 3-4-5, at Seattle Sept. 17-18-19), Angels-6 (at Seattle Aug. 30-31, Sept. 1; at Anaheim Sept. 10-11-12); White Sox-5 (at Seattle July 21, at Chicago July 26-27-28-29), Twins-6 (at Minnesota July 30-31-Aug. 1,) Red Sox- 10 (at Seattle July 22-23-24-25, Sept. 13-14-15, at Boston Aug. 23-24-25), Yankees-3 (at New York Aug. 20-21-22), Rays-3 (at St. Pete Sept. 24-25-26),
PITTSBURGH...The Pirates have been playing worse than even the Orioles since the beginning of May, and are well on their way to an American pro sports record 18th consecutive losing season. The Bucs seem a very good bet to crack to 100-loss barrier, too, considering their awful 11-38 mark away from home. Pittsburgh has also been a big seller at past trade deadlines, although the word is that only reliever Octavio Dotel is likely to be on the move later this July. The Bucs' youth movement began in earnest last month when touted youngsters such as OF Jose Tabata and 3B Pedro Alvarez were allowed to sink or swim in the everyday lineup. So, we're not expecting any stretch rally like the Padres provided last season. The real beneficiary of the Pirates down the stretch will be St. Louis, with 12 games still remaining vs. the Bucs split between Busch Stadium and PNC Park. That's twice as many as the other NL Central contender, Cincinnati, has left with the Pirates. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh could have a role to play in both other division races, where the Rockies (seven games) and Padres (six games) from the NL West both have multiple series remaining with Pittsburgh, while the Mets are the only NL East contender that has games remaining vs. the Pirates, with four at Citi Field vs. the Bucs.
Games remaining for contenders vs. Pirates: Cards-12 (at St. Louis July 30-31, Aug.1, Sept. 27-28-29, at Pittsburgh Aug. 23-24-25, Sept. 21-22-23); Reds-6 (at Pittsburgh Aug. 2-3-4, at Cincinnati Sept. 10-11-12); Padres-6 (at Pittsburgh July 23-24-25, at San Diego Aug. 10-11-12); Rockies-7 (at Denver July 27-28-29, at Pittsburgh Aug. 5-6-7-8); Mets-7 (at Pittsburgh Aug. 20-21-22, at New York Sept. 13-14-15-16); Braves-3 (at Pittsburgh Sept. 6-7-8).
ARIZONA...Perplexing as always, the dysfunctional D-backs seem a long, long way from the promising group that won the NL West and made it to the NLCS as recently as 2007. Now, Arizona is a poster child for how not to play baseball, a team apparently weaned from a generation of players who were overly influenced by Sports Center highlights featuring homers. No team displays less discipline at the plate than Arizona, which can hit homers but also is on pace to set an MLB record for strikeouts in a single season; seven players are on pace to record 100 or more whiffs. We're also not expecting interim skipper Kirk Gibson to land the job on a permanent basis; with A.J. Hinch fired earlier this season, it would be no surprise for Arizona to be employing its fourth manager in less about 18 months by November. Could be a seller at the deadline, where 1B Adam LaRoche figures to be made available. The D-backs are also not much better than the Pirates on the road, having fashioned a 13-33 mark away from Chase Field thru July 21. The lucky team that gets to see Arizona the most in the remaining 10 1/2 weeks will be charging San Francisco, still with a whopping 13 to go vs. the D-backs; NL West pacesetter San Diego gets to face Arizona nine more times, as does Colorado. Outside of the division, the Reds make up for their Pirates deficiency in relation to the Cards by getting to host Arizona in a four-game set at Great American Ballpark, while the Mets (though losing the first two of a current midweek set at Chase Field) are the only NL East contender still involved with the D-backs, with four games to go.
Games remaining for contenders vs. D-backs: Giants-13 (at Phoenix July 22-23-24-25, Sept. 6-7-8, at San Francisco Aug. 27-28-29, Sept. 28-29-30); Padres-9 (at Phoenix Aug. 6-7-8, Aug. 30-31 & Sept. 1, at San Diego Aug. 24-25-26); Rockies-9 (at Phoenix Aug. 20-21-22, Sept. 21-22-23, at Denver Sept. 10-11-12); Dodgers-6 (at Phoenix Sept. 24-25-26, at Los Angeles Oct. 1-2-3); Reds-7 (at Phoenix Aug. 17-18-19, at Cincinnati Sept. 13-14-15-16); Mets-4 (at Phoenix July21, at New York July 30-31, Aug. 1); Phillies-3 (at Philadelphia July 27-28-29).