Wednesday Premium Service Plays

Larry Ness

LEGEND Play-MLB (9-2 in MLB the L6 days / 2-0 with LEGEND plays post-July 4!)

My LEGEND play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET. While former Yankee manager Joe Torre has the Dodgers three games up in the NL West with just five games remaining in the regular season, the Yankees, who at 86-71 own a record four games better than the 82-75 Dodgers, were eliminated from postseason play last night when the Red Sox beat the Indians, 5-4. Everyone knows the story. New York had gone to the postseason every year since 1995 (Torre took over in '96). However, the Yanks were eliminated from the postseason in their first series for the fourth straight time last year and the Yanks and Torre couldn't agree on a new contract. The Yanks hired Joe Giradi and Torre headed to LA. The Yanks won 3-1 last night in Toronto, as Mussina tied his career high with 19 wins. Motivation may be harder to come by tonight for New York, now that the Yanks have officially been eliminated from the postseason. Jeter sat out last night's game with a sore hand (HBP in Saturday's game), although he was used as defensive replacement in the 9th. The Yanks have him listed as doubtful for this game and it's DOUBTFUL the Yanks will win tonight, as well. Injuries and poor performances have seen the Yankees fall from MLB's most dangerous lineup last year (team hit a ML-high .290 and averaged a ML-high 5.98 RPG), to one which has hit .270 and averaged 4.80 RPG in '08. The Yanks have gone a very mediocre 38-38 on the road, where they've averaged 4.49 RPG. Pitching has been a MAJOR problem all year and unlike last night, when they had a highly motivated Mussina on the mound, the Yankees will send only Phil Hughes to the hill tonight. Hughes went 5-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 13 starts last year (team was 8-5) and entered the '08 season with promise. His first start came on April 3 against these Blue Jays and he lasted six innings, allowing four hits and two ERs. He didn't get a decision but the Yanks won, 3-2. However, in five more April starts, Hughes made it into the fifth inning, only once. He lasted a total of just 16 innings in those five games, allowing 30 hits and 20 ERs for an 11.25 ERA (he was 0-4 and the team 0-5). Hughes was then placed on 15-day DL with a strained right oblique on May 1. He was sent to the minors for rehabilitation on July 29 and called up from the minors on September 13. He made his first start since April 29 last Wednesday against the White Sox, allowing just one ER on four hits over four innings (4 Ks and two walks). He's wearing glasses now instead of contacts and has gone back to his old number (65), instead of the No. 34 he wore to start this season. However, as far as I'm concerned, he's still the same pitcher who has allowed 38 hits and 24 ERs in 26 innings for a 7.96 ERA in '08. As for the Blue Jays, they'll go with AJ Burnett. Burnett's in his 10th season and this could be his last start for Toronto (could move on next year). Burnett began his career with Florida in '99 and this is just second time he's made as many as 30 starts in a season (this is his 34th). He made 32 starts in '05, going 12-12 with a 3.44 ERA. Those 12 wins were a single-season career high (he also won 12 games in '02 with Florida) but he'll take an 18-10 mark into tonight's game. Burnett's season "turned around" this year with a July 13 start vs the Yankees. He entered that game having won three of his previous four starts (after a slow start) but he was asked to pitch on three days rest that game (for the first time in his career) and he responded by pitching 8.1 innings (six hits / 1 ER / 8 Ks) in a 3-1 win. That began a stretch in which he's allowed three ERs or less in 10 of his last 14 starts. Including his three wins in four starts prior to that game, Burnett is 12-3 over his last 18 starts this year, with the Blue Jays going 14-4. All the motivation in this game is with Burnett and I don't see the Yanks matching his intensity after just being officially eliminated from the postseason. Plus, the Blue Jays get to 'feast' on Hughes. LEGEND play on the Tor Blue Jays.

ProCapper Sports

5* Phillies -1.5 -140
5* Florida -145

SPORTSKINGZ

FLORIDA -145

ST. LOUIS -135

ANGELS +125

PHILLY -270

WSP Smooth 44

Top-rated

Oakland +105

Players of America

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
The Play: Chicago White Sox +120.0
Star Value: 5* (50 Units)

Good day. Well, we know we said we'd be packing things up until the MLB post season, but there is one match up out there that stands out like sore thumb today. All of you users who have expired packages.please enjoy this play for free in return for our poor performance in the final month of the regular season. This is the play to be on, guys. The White Sox remain in Minnesota for an ENORMOUS three game set with AL Central foe, the Twins. Chicago remains in first place of the division, with the Twins tightly on their heels. Minnesota put on a clinic last night at home to pull even closer to the Sox, but today's line is simply outrageous.

The White sox have a subpar reputation inside any dome over the past five years, but throw that stat away for a second so we can look a little deeper into this thing. The White Sox are putting one of their better heavers on the rubber tonight in Mark Buehrle. Mark is a solid 14-11 overall this season, 2-0 in his last three outings. In those last three games, Mark has given up just 19 hits and racked up an ERA of just 2.79. His WHIP in those games stands at 1.12 too. He has been red hot, and it really seems that when this guy gets on the mound this entire Chicago team comes together and gives him some major run support. That'll be the case tonight, also. This is a purely valuable position for the White Sox. They are the better team, home or away when you stack them up to the Twins. They'll prove that tonight at 8:10PM EST.

Minnesota is handing the seams to right hander Nick Blackburn. Nick was a highly touted star about two months ago, but has more than cooled off as of late. It seems hitters have really keyed in on him and he hasn't been able to go more than a few innings without getting the boot lately. Nick has a season ERA of 4.15, compared to Buehrle's 3.85. Blackburn also is 1-2 in his last three appearances, PITCHING JUST 12 INNINGS AND GIVING UP 20 HITS. IN THOSE 12 INNINGS HE HAS AN ERA OF 10.22 AND A WHIP OF 1.95. Re-read that if need be, but it's a proven fact that this guy is struggling and the laughing stock of this organization right now.

On a side note, veteran Alfonso Marquez is the scheduled umpire for today's event. Alfonso is notorious for having a very tight strike zone, and with that comes many, many runs. He has officiated 30 games already this season, two thirds of which have gone over the total. We're sorry to say, but when it comes to offense, hitting and runs, the White Sox clearly hold the advantage over the Twins with an extraordinary potent line up.

There is not getting around the spotlight of this game. It is nothing shy of a big one for both teams. However, as we've said so many times in the past, this is baseball.not boxing. Both teams are relatively healthy and at full staff, so there are no excuses to be made. In all honesty, this is the turning point of this AL Central race. A win here for the White Sox may do all but clinch some post season action. A loss, and well, they are in a dog fight for the remainder of the regular season.

Buehrle went out against this same Minnesota team on June 7th, 2008 and chalked up an 11-2 victory. Blackburn faced this same White Sox team the day before and got roughed up for 10 runs in a 10-6 loss to the Sox. The first game for Blackburn this season against the Sox he was also shelled in a 7-4 loss to Chicago.

We're confident in letting this one fly off the hook for a very, very large play. Chicago is the side to be on in this match up, and plus money on the Sox is a gift from the heavens above. A 5* / 50 unit wager on Buehrle and the White Sox as they steal Game #2 of this series in Minnesota, BIG.

TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 Wednesday games
-The White Sox are 9-3 in Buehrle's last 12 starts VS the Twins
-The Twins are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a win

Chicago 8, Minnesota 3

Brandon Lang

5 Dime White Sox

FREE - Blue Jays

NSA

20* Tampa Bay -140
10* KC -115
10* Cubs +115
10* Twins -115
10* Padres/Dodgers Under
10* Angels +120

BEN BURNS

SEATTLE

As you know, the Angels have had a much better season than the Mariners. The Angels locked up a playoff berth long ago while the Mariners have been out of playoff contention for months. I like the situation here though. I say that because the Mariners just "got the monkey off their back" by snapping an extended losing streak while the Angels just saw their momentum come to a halt, as their winning streak was snapped. It's true that the Angels are still trying to win in order to lock up homefield advantage. However, the Mariners also have reason to play hard as they still have an outside shot at avoiding 100 losses and alos have the motivation of trying to finish the season on a high and get a couple of wins against the division champs. More importantly, the Mariners should have a significant advantage on the mound. That's because ace Felix Hernandez getting the call and he's got an excellent 3.37 ERA on the season, averaging a healthy 6 1/2 innings per start. He's pitched very well in each of his last two starts but hasn't gotten any run support. He should be some today though. Not only did the Mariners' bats come to life last night but they'll be facing Jon Garland and he's got an ugly 5.73 ERA and 1.606 WHIP on the road this season. He's been at his worst lately, too. Over his last three starts, Garland has a terrible 6.46 ERA and 1.741 WHIP. Those numbers are so bad largely because of his most recent start which saw him get pounded for nine runs (8 earned) in 2 1/3 innings. While Garland has won a couple of home starts vs. the Mariners, the last time he visited Seattle he allowed 12 hits and six runs (3 earned) in just five innings and suffered an 8-3 loss. Look for Hernandez to outpitch Garland and for the Mariners to win their second straight. *Personal Favorite

BIG AL

At 7:05pm our selection is on the New York Mets over the Chicago Cubs. Now that the Cubs have clinched their division for the second straight season, they can afford to relax and take it easy, and don't be surprised if they do exactly that in these last few games. After all, unlike the other team that was the first to clinch its division (the Angels), the Cubs have also already locked up home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs, so these few remaining regular season games mean essentially nothing. Not that they will try to lose on purpose, but after flopping the way they did in 2007 in the first round to Arizona, the Cubs will make sure that they are 100% fit and mentally prepared heading into the 2008 postseason. Tonight they will keep a real close eye on ace Carlos Zambrano, and it remains to be seen which Zambrano turns up for this game in New York? The one who pitched the complete game, no-hitter two starts back or the one who got ripped and only lasted 1 2/3 innings in his most recent start against the Cards. Keeping its ace healthy and focused for the postseason run is much more important to this team right now than whether it wins or loses this particular game. But for New York, there is only one goal tonight, and that is winning this game and keeping pace with the Phillies, and for the second straight night it will try to beat the Cubs by way of a talented lefthander. Last night it was Johan Santana and tonight it will be Oliver Perez' turn. Perez has thrown seven quality starts in his last nine trips to the mound, and the Mets have won five of Perez' previous seven starts. Although Zambrano is a top-flight pitcher, in three career starts at Shea Stadium, his ERA is a mediocre 4.00. Take the Mets to win this critical game.

Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections

INSIDERS AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR
Toronto w/Burnett -138

Oscarxena Sports

Detroit -1.16 (3 Unit Play)

Teddy Covers

MLB Game of the Year

I only release one Big Ticket: MLB Game of the Year and tonight’s contest absolutely deserves that designation, with the betting marketplace way out of sync with the realities of this game and this series. We cashed with Minnesota last night as they routed the White Sox 9-3. It was the Twins 50th home win in 76 games. Remember thanks to the Republican National Convention and other factors, the Twins had played 24 of their previous 30 games on the road. No surprise, then, that the young Twins went just 12-18 during that span. That understandably rough stretch has the betting marketplace lagging here for a team with a truly dominant home field advantage.

The win was typical Twins baseball. Nick Punto laid down a perfect squeeze bunt to score a big run, helping to blow the game open. The red hot Joe Mauer (12 game hitting streak; hitting .500 for the last week) went with the pitch for an opposite field single. The Twins lead the majors with a .311 batting average with runners in scoring position. They stole two bases. They turned two double plays.

Outfielder Michael Cuddyer: “We don’t win by hitting bombs. It’s playing the game right. Getting guys over. Doing the little things right. Nine runs is not uncharacteristic.” Manager Ron Gardenhire said. “Our guys get pretty pumped up playing at home in front of our crowd. We’re playing the White Sox. All those good things – it should be easy for you.” First baseman Justin Morneau: “We scored over 800 runs playing our Twins baseball, bunting and stealing and all that kind of stuff.”

All the momentum here is with Minnesota. All the pressure is on the first place White Sox, trying to protect their 1.5 game lead, but Chicago looked a bit shell-shocked last night. It’s certainly not like Ozzie Guillen’s squad is in good current form. While the Twins were faltering, the White Sox were unable to put the division away; just 10-14 in their last 24 games including a 5-10 road mark during that span. Given the Twins track record at home and the White Sox current form, this game should be priced much closer to -200 than the current number of -115.

The betting marketplace is afraid of Twins starter Nick Blackburn. After all, Blackburn has been shelled in each of his last two outings, at Tampa Bay and at Baltimore. But you’re not going to find many pitchers in baseball with a stronger home/road dichotomy than the Twins young righty. He’s been getting hammered on the road all year, to the tune of a 5.20 ERA and a .318 batting average against. Put Blackburn at home in front of the screaming faithful and we’re talking about a pitcher that has gone 7-3 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, All Star caliber numbers. The Twins are 9-3 in his last dozen home starts. Blackburn earned the win, pitching seven innings of quality start baseball in his last outing against these White Sox here at the Metrodome.

And Mark Buehrle seems to be getting a wee bit too much credit from the betting marketplace as well. Buehrle has been shelled in two of his three starts against Minnesota this year, in 7-0 and 13-1 losses. Over the last three years at the Metrodome, Buehrle has allowed 29 hits and 16 runs in just 17 innings of work; hit hard every single time.

The Twins have won six of the seven meetings between these two teams in Minneapolis this season. Closer Joe Nathan has bounced back from his tough stretch (all on the road) earlier this month, notching a pair of saves without allowing a single baserunner over the weekend against Tampa Bay. This is legitimately the single strongest play I’ve seen in MLB all year, worthy of Big Ticket: Game of the Year status. 7* Big Ticket Game of the Year: Take the Twins.

MIKE ROSE

3* KCR/DET OVER 10
3* PIT/MIL OVER 7½
3* CWS/MIN UNDER 9 –110

EZWINNERS

2 STAR: (917) OAKLAND (+$104) over Texas
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $208)

2 STAR: (913) SAN DIEGO (+$135) over LA Dodgers
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $270)

2 STAR: (928) MINNESOTA (-$119) over Chicago
(Listing Blackburn only) (Risking $238 to win $200)