Dave Cokin
Interleague Game of the Year!
Orioles @ Marlins
Play: 5* Marlins
There's no such thing as a perfect spot, but tonight's Orioles-Marlins contest comes pretty close. The Orioles had their winning streak snapped on Tuesday night, and mediocre teams will frequently follow up a hot run by immediately going cold once they lose one. Add in the fact the O's are not a particularly strong road team. The Marlins now have three straight wins, so they're in positive form. As for the pitchers, I see a huge edge for the hosts. Rookie Jason Berken has appeared somewhat overmatched for Baltimore. But Ricky Nolasco has found his groove for the Marlins. Nolasco got off to a disastrous start this season, despite maintaining strong ratios, and eventually had to be shipped to the minors to regain his confidence. He's been in great form since returning and has been spectacular in his last two starts. Nolasco would definitely qualify as a go with pitcher right now. Add it all up, and it looks like a terrific spot for a big play on the Florida Marlins.
WeCoverSpreads
Marlins-136
The high 7.15 ERA that Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco has this year is somewhat misrepresenting his play of late. He has three quality starts in a row under his belt against Boston, Toronto, and San Francisco. He has a 2.50 ERA, 18/4 strikeout/walk ratio, and has given up just six earned runs in those starts. Nolasco was a 15 game winner with a 3.52 ERA last season and seems to be settling down into last seasons form. Nolasco got off to a slow start last year as well and finished the year with an amazing 12 quality starts in a row. This is a good number to lay considering Nolascos overall talent and his opponent tonight.
Jason Berken is in for a long night. The touted rookie has not adjusted to the big leagues as of yet. He has a 1-3 record with a 6.84 ERA on the season. His last three starts he has given up 17 earned runs in just 14.1 innings of work wit ha 10.67 ERA. He has produced just one quality start out of five starts this season and was rocked for 9 earned runs in his lone start on the highway this year. Facing the potent Marlins line up in this hitter friendly park isn't too appealing for the young struggling Berken. The O's are just 1-7 in the last 8 meetings overall when facing Florida. We'll back the proven young hurler over the struggling kid lacking confidence in a tough spot tonight.
Opposite Action Plays
LA Angels
Stephen Nover
Detroit Tigers
Nick Parsons
Seattle Mariners
Tony George
Yankees/Braves Under
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
4* Padres at Mariners
Chris Young is joining Jake Peavy – and nearly every other Padres starting pitcher from the start of the season – on the disabled list. For the Padres, it has gone on way too long already: their record 13-game losing skein in interleague play, the 10-game winning stretch by the Mariners at Petco Park, the 12-game, 44-at bat stretch between homers for Adrian Gonzalez and silence of the Padres' bats in general. It doesn't help to face Mariner starter Brandon Morrow, who has struck out 30 in 25 innings. Morrow, starting once more in place of Erik Bedard, struck out six and allowed two runs over four innings Thursday against the Padres. This weak San Diego team is 9-23 on the road. San Diego is 1-4 in the last 5 starts made by wild Josh Geer (5.98 ERA), who is winless with a 6.99 ERA on the road. Play the Mariners.
Seabass
50* Texas
All 30*
Atlanta
Florida
San Fran
Toronto
St Louis
David Malinsky
6* L.A. ANGELS over COLORADO
In the long run Joe Saunders over Jason Marquis, and the Angel lineup over the Colorado lineup, is a -180 setting on this field. But that recent moment from the Rockies has vastly reduced the price structure, and that means it fits into our upper ranges for a 6* call. The pieces fall in to place to win it easily.
Marquis brings a lot of respect from his 9-4/3.71 and current form, but we peg him as most vulnerable here. First note that he has not turned his career around, but instead has taken advantage of a soft opening schedule – of the 131 pitchers that have worked at least 50 innings, his difficulty of batters faced is #105, and it has been a particularly easy recent stretch. But part of that stretch was a home game against Pittsburgh in his last outing when Jim Tracy put too much emphasis on his getting a complete game (he had only thrown five previously in his 10-year Major League career). He ended up toiling to 125 pitches, and ultimately having to be replaced in the 9th, and that kind of work load at the Denver altitude is not what the doctor calls for at this stage for a guy that is still not much more than a journeyman. The pitch count was by far his season high, with the previous being only 113, and in six starts he did not even reach 100. What happened when he threw 113? The next time out the Giants got to him for seven runs, five earned, in six innings, and over the last three seasons he has worked to a 5.67 tune in starts after topping the 110 plateau. Now he is off of back-to-back counts of 110 and 125 at Coors Field, against weak Pirate and Mariner offenses, and that does not bode well for him to step up against this group tonight.
Meanwhile the Rockies as a team also lost some of their momentum on Tuesday, managing only six hits, and have to step in against Joe Saunders, another of those left-handers that can be awfully difficult to read on the first look (a 4-1/2.85 in Inter-League play for his career speaks volumes about that). Carlos Gonzalez is the only Colorado starter that has ever faced him, which means significant matchup problems, and Saunders will exacerbate those issues by throwing strikes (only 28 walks in 92.1 innings), and forcing a lot of weak contact on pitches at the edges of the strike zone. With both the timing and the value just right, we step this one up.
3* HOUSTON over K.C.
Wins do not always mean that teams have broken out of slumps, and last night’s Royal victory here was a good example – after entering on an 0-5 slide in which they had been out-scored by 32 runs, they did little as a team, getting out-hit 10-6, while striking out eight times. They simply road the backs of Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria, which has been one of the few paths to success that they have had. Now a struggling side has to find a way to win with much less going for them from a pitching standpoint, while going into a much tougher arm, and we believe this a mismatch much worse than is being priced.
Luke Hochevar has worked to a 3-9/6.50 on the road as a Major League starter, with 13 home runs allowed in those 81.2 innings. Ordinarily we would not need to say much more than that, except note that there were also six unearned runs in that span. Yes, he was taken at the top of the draft board and is considered a good prospect, but there is a surprising lack of pop coming from his arm (only 12 strikeouts in 31.1 innings), and off of a dismal outing vs. Arizona in his last appearance confidence is absolutely an issue.
Meanwhile we see Roy Oswalt as being in a correction mode off of his slow start to the season, and his last two outings have been outstanding, but no one has noticed. Two games back he held Arizona to one run on five hits over seven innings of a road win, and at Minnesota on Friday he had some of his best stuff of the season, working eight innings and getting 20 of 24 outs on ground balls or strikeouts. But when Jason Michaels lost a fly ball in the Metrodome lights in the 8th inning it added a couple of earned runs and a double to his allowance that in reality were not of hid doing, and that keeps the value behind him excellent for this setting. Now we can confidently call for him to dominate a weak lineup, on a night in which he should also get plenty of offensive support.
3* FLORIDA over BALTIMORE
We had a good idea behind Ricky Nolasco in turning a 5* Under play at Boston in his last outing, but it rained on our parade – he showed that he was ready to get back to that excellent late-season form of 2008, allowing only one run and one hit through five innings while not walking a batter, but the weather took away a chance to cash that ticket. Now we can come right back again in a pitching mismatch that is much wider than is being priced.
Nolasco shows a 3-6/7.15 for the full season, but those numbers carry no meaning. What matters to us is the 2.50 over three starts since coming back from that corrective stint in the Minors, and he has gotten stronger each time – in his last two outings he faced tough Boston and Toronto lineups in the road, yet had twice as many strikeouts (14) as base-runners allowed (six hits and one walk). We can call for his momentum to continue here, and a team that has won three straight, moving to within three games of first place in the N.L. East in the process, brings a similar enthusiasm to the setting.
Meanwhile the Orioles are floundering at 11-21 on the road, even with that weekend success at Philadelphia, and Jason Berken brings little to the proceedings. After winning his debut he has worked to an awful 0-3/7.59 over his last four starts, and in his only road outing was crushed at Oakland. His ground-ball and strikeout ratios are such that he does not have the stuff to be in a Major League rotation yet, and having only had five career starts at the AAA level, he could be on his way down for more seasoning soon.
squarepicks
3* Cleveland/Pittsburgh Under 8.5 +106
3* Baltimore/Florida Under 9 +115
3* KC Royals ML +160
3* Chicago White Sox -1.5 +170
3* Texas ML +170
3* Seattle -1.5 +146
The Prez
5* marlins
4* yankees under
4* mariners under
Tom Freese
10 Unit Game of the Month Twins
Young Run Sports
3 Units Cardinals
JEFFERSON-SPORTS
MLB
TB-168
ST. LOUIS-105
CUBS+105
CHICAGO WHITE SOX-118
LA ANGELS-140
Bob Balfe's
Member Picks
Pirates -130 over Indians
Duke/Pavano