Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Sonics +16.5
I like the Sonics catching a lot of points here as the Rockets do not play an up-tempo style of basketball conducive to blowing out its opponents by double digits very often. The SuperSonics are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup and the underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The SuperSonics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. The Rockets are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Sonics played terribly and lost 13 points to the Rockets five days ago. I like Seattle to perform much better tonight to pick up an easy cover.
MR A'S
Detroit Tigers (0-7) at Boston Red Sox (4-4)
(R) Jeremy Bonderman (0-1) vs. (L) Jon Lester (1-1)
Home Record: Detroit 0-6 - Boston 1-0
Road Record: Detroit 0-1 - Boston 3-4
Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman (0-1, 5.68), allowed four runs and eight hits over 6 1/3 innings in his season debut on Thursday, a 4-1 loss to Kansas City. The right-hander has won his last three decisions against Boston and is 3-4 with a 4.58 ERA in nine career starts against them.
Boston's Jon Lester (1-1, 3.38 ERA), pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his last start, a 5-0 win in Oakland on Wednesday. The left-hander has never faced the Tigers.
The Tigers are 5-0 in Bondermans last 5 starts against the Red Sox, but with Detroit's comatose bats don't expect the right-hander to have support. Detroit is winless, they have dropped seven straight. Go with the Red Sox. The Tigers are 8-20 in the last 28 games in Boston
Boston Red Sox - 130
JB'S COMPUTER PLAYS
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
(R) Jeremy Bonderman (0-1) vs. (L) Jon Lester (1-1) Boston Red Sox - 130
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
(R) Steve Trachsel (1-0) vs. (L) Kason Gabbard (1-0) Baltimore Orioles + 140
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
(R) Josh Fogg (0-1) vs. (R) Dave Bush (0-1) Milwaukee Brewers - 160
New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
(R) Ian Kennedy (0-1) vs. (R) Zack Greinke (1-0) Kansas City Royals + 115
Winners Edge
NBA
Rockets/ Supersonics Under 194 , 2 Units
Sa Spurs - 6 , 2 Units
MLB
Seattle Mariners Even , 3 Units (game Of Week )
Chicago Cubs Rl +125 , 2 Units
San Diego Padres -130 , 1 Unit
Al McMordie
Atlanta Braves -113 at Rockies
The Rockies have gotten off to a very slow start as they look to defend their 2007 NL Pennant. Back Mark Teixeira and the Atlanta Braves on the road in Denver against Colorado.
Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the Atlanta Braves on the road in Denver over the Colorado Rockies.
What a difference an offseason makes. Less than six months after their amazing run as one of the hottest teams to finish a season in Major League Baseball history, the Rockies are struggling with one of the most pathetic starts to a season in recent memory. Their record of 2-5 through the first seven games of the season does not tell the whole story. The normally high-powered Rockies lineup is hitting a Major League-worst .209 and has managed to score a paltry 12 runs through their first seven games.
Atlanta hasn't exactly been lighting it up in the win column so far in '08 either, but there have been a number of pitching injuries, including ace John Smoltz and tonight's pitcher, lefty Chuck James. Both Smoltz and James are now healthy and back in the rotation so look for Atlanta to start turning things around, especially once first baseman Mark Teixeira starts finding his stroke. Teixeira is off to a dismal start, batting only .156 but he is too good a hitter for this to continue much longer.
Colorado southpaw Mark Redman has only pitched slightly over 40 innings in the past two seasons after getting 29 starts for Kansas City in 2005. Since 2003, Redman has only had one season with an ERA under 4.70. I'm not sure exactly what Redman is doing in this contending club's rotation. Take Atlanta.
Pick: Braves -113
Brian Gabrielle
One of golf's premier events is up this week as the PGA Tour heads to Augusta for The Masters. Tiger Woods is among the favorites, with a red hot Geoff Ogilvy close behind.
My favorite week of TV is even better this year. ESPN is broadcasting the Par-3 Tournament! I feel like a Knights Templar! They are letting us into the War Room! I will taste the inner circle from my couch! I will dine with sultans and celebrities! This could be the greatest week of my life.
Well probably not. But I get excited about The Masters. The course, the competition, the relative lack of commercials, the rite of spring. And now, on top of all that flowering goodness, they are letting us watch the Par-3. Three o'clock on a Wednesday never looked so good.
Enough. I have a lot to say about the picks. Happy viewing!
Take Tiger Woods (10-11), 1/6 unit: The only question is whether or not 'Tiger Rules' are in effect. To put the full unit and a half on him or not? Like everyone else who even passively follows golf, I will be surprised if he does not win.
Not shocked, though. I mean, this is a major tournament, with one of the best fields of the year. There are a couple of past champions who are also playing well this year, if not to Wood's standards (Mickelson has a win, Singh has two seconds and a third), as well as several players who have had strong Augusta appearances also playing well this year (Els has a win, Furyk has a second,Goosen finished T2 a few weeks ago at Doral and K.J.Choi has a win).
Aw, who am I kidding. I will be shocked if he does not win. But not shocked and awed.
Take Geoff Ogilvy (20-1), 1/6 unit: He is a popular pick (after Tiger, of course) this week. Because in his last two tournaments he has finished 1 and T2; because he has already won a major, and did it with a clutch chip late on Sunday; because he held off Goosen, Singh, Furyk and, to a lesser extent, Woods,in that win at Doral a few weeks ago; because he won at Doral by making a lot of pars and not making mistakes (which is the way to play major tournaments); and because in his two appearances at Augusta the last two years he has finished inside the top 25 both times.
Take Adam Scott (33-1), 1/6 unit: You've heard the story: Scott shot a feverish, course-record 63 in the first round of the Shell Houston Open last week (he really did have a fever) and followed with a 76 before withdrawing because he was still ill, throat ulcers being the main problem.
You may have also heard that Scott's registration number at Augusta this week is 61 and that he shot a 61 at the Qatar Masters earlier this year. THIS IS NOT AN OMEN, THIS IS A MMEANINGLESS COINCIDENCE.
Adam Scott is not going to shoot 61 or 63 any day this week. In fact, he is never shot a round in the 60s in six trips to Augusta. On the flip side,though, he has only missed one cut, his best finish was a T9 in 2002, and his illness may clear up just in time for Thursday's opening round. You know how it is when you are sick, feverish, all those nasty flu-like symptoms. When you turn the corner you feel stronger than you did before you were sick. It sounds like Scott's illness may be a bit mor e severe than the flu but the fact is he is in Augusta resting up and expects to play Thursday. At 33-1, he is an intriguing pick. Sort of a poor man's Tiger Woods who happens to be a millionaire, his putting stats and GIR suggest he is more of an all or nothing player than Woods. That is, when he hits greens – and he hits a lot of them – he is a strong putter. When he doesn't hit greens, he's not so strong.
By contrast, there is hardly any difference between Tiger's Putting Average and his Putts Per Round; he is near the top in both categories. Of course, iron play and short game affect both measures. But we do not need stats to tell us that Woods is more clutch than Scott. We will see.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at New York Mets
Pick: Philadelphia +125
The Mets have had a long line of top minor-league pitching prospects that have failed to cut it at the big league level, and at this stage Mike Pelfrey may be the next. Pelfrey has been idle since spring training and this could be a difficult spot for him. The Mets were just 4-9 in his 13 starts last season, and opponents scored 76 runs in the nine losses. So when he is bad, he is really bad. Going back to '06, the Mets are just 4-11 in his last 15 starts. Kyle Kendrick, on the other hand, established himself as a top-flight pitcher last season as the Phillies went 13-7 in his 20 starts. One of the wins was a two-run gem against the Mets. This Mets team appears to have a fragile psyche, and they aren't off to a very good start again. Some great value on the Phillies here.
Gamblersworld
TIP OF THE DAY
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Current Line: -130 Over/Under: 10 Reason: The Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Fenway Park. Jeremy Bonderman will be the starting pitcher for the Tigers on this day. Righthander Bonderman is 0-1 this season with a 5.69 ERA. The Red Sox will counter Bonderman with Jon Lester. Lefthander Lester has a 3.37 ERA to go along with a 1-1 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Red Sox listed as 130-moneyline favorites versus the Tigers, while the game's total is sitting at 10. Kevin Youkilis drove in two runs on Tuesday afternoon as the Red Sox rolled to a 5-0 win over the Tigers. The Red Sox earned the victory as -163 favorites in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the day's posted total (9.5). Coco Crisp and J.D. Drew also drove in runs in that victory for Boston. Gary Sheffield collected two hits in a losing cause for the Tigers. Current streak: Detroit has lost 7 straight games. Team records: Detroit: 0-7 SU Boston: 4-4 SU Detroit most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 1-9 Before playing Boston are 6-4 After playing Boston are 6-4 After a loss are 3-7 Boston most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 6-4 Before playing Detroit are 4-6 After playing Detroit are 5-5 After a win are 7-3 A few trends to consider: Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit Boston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
EZ WINNERS
MLB
5 STAR: (959) ST. LOUIS (+$106) over Houston
(Listing Looper and Sampson)
(Risking $500 to win $530)
2 STAR: (954) PITTSBURGH (+$121) over Chicago
(Listing Duke and Dempster)
(Risking $200 to win $242)
2 STAR: (954) PHILADELPHIA (+$127) over NY Mets
(Listing Kendrick and Pelfrey)
(Risking $100 to win $254)
1 STAR: (978) KANSAS CITY (+$110) over NY Yankees
(Listing Greinke and Kennedy)
(Risking $100 to win $110)
BEN BURNS
NBA
MINNESOTA
Game: New Orleans Hornets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves Reason: I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. Both teams played and lost last night. The T-Wolves were arguably more impressive though, as they lost a close one at Charlotte while the Hornets, playing at home, were beaten by the Jazz, managing a mere 66 points, including just 42 in the final three quarters. Off that type of loss, the majority of the betting public will expect the Hornets to bounce back with a big win. However, I won't be surprised if they have their hands full once again. Its not always that easy to just "turn it on" after such an off night and tonight's opponent, while young, generally works a lot harder than many realize. The T-Wolves lost their last game here. However, they'd won four of their previous five games, including a win over the same Utah team that handled the Hornets last night. The lone loss during that stretch came by just four points, vs. Detroit. Looking back further and we find that the T-Wolves are 9-11 SU their last 20 games here and that only five of those games resulted in losses of greater than seven points. Due to their competitive play at home, the T-Wolves haven't been listed as home underdogs in this range very often. They've fared well when they have though and have enjoyed some success against the league's top tier teams. The last time that they were home underdogs of greater than eight points, they lost by one point (at +8.5 point dogs) vs. San Antonio. They've also played the Celtics tough here (two point loss) while knocking off the Suns outright. The T-Wolves lost badly when they hosted the Hornets earlier but did win one of the two meetings at New Orleans, giving them some confidence that they can hang with the Hornets here tonight. It should also be noted that the T-Wolves are 2-1 SU/ATS in 2008 when playing a home game after having played the previous night. This is Minnesota's second last home game and last vs. a Western Conference opponent. With a shot at upsetting one of the top teams in the West and playing a part in the playoff seeding, I look for the T-Wolves to give another motivated and competitive effort, keeping things much closer than most are expecting and improving to 33-19-2 ATS the last 54 times they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. *Best Bet
BASEBALL
TEXAS
Game: Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers Reason: I'm laying the price with TEXAS. I lost with the Rangers in their home opener yesterday but I'm willing to give them another shot today. Gabbard gets the call and he's coming off a superb outing in which he held a powerful Angels lineup scoreless through seven complete innings. After the victory, Rangers manager Ron Washington said: "He certainly proved what pitching is about - change speeds and throw strikes and work fast." Note that Gabbard is 1-0 (team was 2-0) with a 2.53 ERA in two starts vs. the Orioles, including a 30-3 victory last season. Conversely, while its been some time since he faced them, Trachsel is 1-1 with a 7.06 ERA in four career starts vs. the Rangers. While Trachsel, now 37 years old, was relatively solid in his opening start, let's not forget that he was horrible with the Orioles last season, before moving on to the Cubs. He finished the season with a 4.90 ERA after recording a 4.97 mark the previous year. He was particularly brutal on the road last season, going 4-9 with a 5.96 ERA, allowing opposing hitters to bat over 300. Yesterday's victory notwithstanding, the Orioles remain an awful 65-97 on the road the past two seasons. During that stretch, they've also gone a terrible 37-60 (-26.4) when facing a left-handed starter. The Rangers were 55-41 (+6.8) when playing a home game with an over/under line of 10 or 10.5 the past two seasons. Look for the Texas offense to finally get on track as Gabbard outpitches the veteran Trachsel en route to the Rangers' first home win of the season. *Personal Favorite
More Later
Insider Sports Report
4* San Diego (Germano) -130 over San Francisco (Sanchez)
Range -110 to -145
3* Boston (Lester) -120 over Detroit (Bonderman)
Range -105 to -140
3* Phoenix +6 over San Antonio (NBA)
Range +7.5 to +4
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Kansas City Royals +110 (Listing Greinke and Kennedy)
I like the Royals at home tonight showing nice value as an underdog. The Royals are off to a nice 5-2 start and appear to be gaining more and more confidence each time out. The Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog, 4-0 in Greinke's last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game, and 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. We'll make a small play on the Royals here.
Lucky Leprechaun Sports
LA Dodgers/ Arizona UNDER 9:
Both pitchers came out and had impressive season debuts as the Dodgers Kuroda allwed just 3 hits and 1 ER in 7 innings of work, while the D-Backs Owings allowed just 2 hits and 1 ER in 6.2 innings of work. Both pitching staffs overall have been solid as the Dodgers are sporting a 2.79 ERA, while 'Zona has a 2.45 ERA.The Dodgers have hit for .230 on the year, while scoring 3 runs or less in 5 of their 8 games. The D-Backs have scored their share of runs this year, but they willl have problems with Kuroda today. It's a pitchers duel in the desert today.
seeyouinthewinnerscircle Philadelphia Phillies 125
WildBill Los Angeles Dodgers Under 9.0
JEFF MONEY San Diego Padres -127
King Creole
MIN 10.5 vs NOH
Analysis: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES plus the points vs New Orleans Hornets
Both teams played last night, with New Orleans getting shocked at home against Utah.... and Minnesota dropping a close one (they DID get the cash) against Charlotte. The 'no rest' situation for BOTH teams is the first area that we queried for tonight. The numbers indicate the DOG is the play.
Since late February, NBA double digit road FAVORITES (like the Hornets) are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS when both teams played last night (0/0 rest situation).
Don't be concerned about Minnesota coming into tonight's game on a 5-game losing streak. It provides us with exceptional ATS value.
NBA home underdogs playing off 5+ Su losses in a row (T'WOLVES) are 6-1 ATS vs any opponent playing off a SU favorite loss. That's the case tonight as New Orleans was favored by -5.5 points in that home loss last night.
That Jazz/Hornets game last night was extremely low-scoring (77-66 final score). Since January, NBA teams are 1-13 ATS playing with NO rest off a game in which they allowed fewer than 85 points (New Orleans). ROAD teams in this spot are a PERFECT 0-10 ATS.
Last night's game for Minnesota featured some extremely good shooting at they went 51% from the field and 88% from the free throw line. This is a very good indicator of point spread success in the next game for teams such as this.
In the last 2 years, NBA home underdogs with 1- days rest are a PERFECT 8-0 ATS (MINNESOTA) off a SU LOSS in which they shot 50% or better from the field and 85% or better from the free throw line.
The 'bloom's off the rose' for New Orleans as their 5-game winning streak came to and end last night. Another good sign for a 'fade'.
Since march 1st, NBA teams are 3-14 ATS on the road with no rest off a SU loss which broke a 5+ game winning streak (Hornets). FAVS in this role are 1-9 ATS.