Milwaukee (8-5) at St. Louis (10-4)
Two teams off to solid starts this season continue a three-game series at Busch Stadium as the Brewers send right-hander Carlos Villanueva (1-1, 4.76 ERA) to the hill against fellow righty Adam Wainwright (1-1, 3.60).
In Tuesday’s opener against Milwaukee, the Cardinals rolled to a 6-1 victory. St. Louis lost its season opener but has gone 10-3 since, with a team ERA under 4.00 in the last 10 games. St. Louis is 15-4 in its last 19 games dating to last season and is on a 6-0 run at Busch. Also, the Redbirds are 5-1 in Wainwright’s last six home starts.
Milwaukee had a modest two-game winning streak snapped with last night’s loss. The Brewers are 4-3 on the road this season, but just 2-6 in their last eight against right-handed starters.
Going back to last season, the Cardinals are on an 8-2 run against Milwaukee (4-0 at home).
Villanueva is coming off a 4-1 home loss to Cincinnati, as he allowed all four runs on seven hits in six innings. That followed his season-opening effort, when he gave up eight hits but just two runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 13-4 victory over San Francisco. Villanueva is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in eight appearances (three starts) against St. Louis, including 1-1 with a 4.30 ERA last year. This will be his first road start this season.
Wainwright surrendered four runs on eight hits in a 5-1 loss at San Francisco on Thursday, following a solid April 5 start against Washington in which he allowed two runs on eight hits in eight innings in a 5-4 home win. He is 1-1 with a 2.14 ERA in nine appearances (two starts) against the Brewers.
The under for Milwaukee is on runs of 7-2 in Villanueva’s starts, 7-0 on the highway against right-handed starters and 6-1 against the National League Central. For St. Louis, the under is 9-3-1 in Wainwright’s last 13 home starts, but the over is 4-2 in its last six overall, 9-5 in its last 14 against the N.L. Central and 4-1-1 in Wainwright’s last six matchups against N.L. Central rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (9-6) at N.Y. Yankees (8-7)
The Red Sox and Yankees make a quick turnaround in their rivalry, having just met over the weekend at Fenway Park. In a rematch of Friday’s meeting, Boston will send right-hander Clay Buchholz (0-1, 3.27 ERA) against Chien-Ming Wang (3-0, 1.23) in this opener of a brief two-game set at Yankee Stadium.
After taking two of three from the Yanks, Boston got a Manny Ramirez two-run homer to beat Cleveland 6-4 Monday night for its third straight win, then came back Tuesday and made it four in a row with a 5-3 come-from-behind win over the Indians. The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last five overall and 7-2 in their last nine series openers, but they are 2-4 in six games against the American League East this year.
Following Sunday’s 8-5 loss at Boston, the Yankees bolted to Tampa Bay and swept a quick two-game series from the Rays, winning 8-7 on Monday and 5-3 on Tuesday. Now they return to the Bronx, where they are 45-20 in their last 65 games dating to last season, but only 4-3 this year.
Despite dropping two of three last weekend, New York is still 7-3 in the last 10 meetings against Boston, including 4-0 at home. The Yanks are also 4-1 in Wang’s last four starts against the Sox.
Wang hurled a complete-game, two-hit gem with no walks in Friday’s 4-1 victory against Buchholz, who got a no-decision after allowing one run on four hits in six innings. Wang, who went 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA against Boston last year, has allowed just three runs in 22 innings this season. The Yankees are now 37-14 in Wang’s last 51 starts overall, 26-8 in his last 34 at home and 9-1 in his last 10 on Wednesdays
Prior to Friday’s no-decision– his first-ever appearance against the Yankees – Buchholz allowed four runs on six hits in five innings in his season debut, a 10-2 loss at Toronto. Last year, the young hurler went 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three road starts.
For New York, the under is on streaks of 9-2 overall, 6-1 at home and 8-3 against divisional rivals. For Boston, the under is on runs of 53-25 on the road against right-handed starters and 4-1 on Wednesdays. Finally, the under was 5-1 in the last six series meetings at Yankee Stadium last year and is 4-1 in Wang’s last four outings against the BoSox.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
New Orleans (56-25, 50-29-2 ATS) vs. Dallas (50-31, 34-43-4 ATS)
The Hornets and Mavericks wrap up their regular seasons tonight at American Airlines Arena in a possible preview of an upcoming first-round playoff series.
The Hornets clinched the Southwest Division title – the first division crown in the 20-year history of the franchise – and also locked up the No. 2 seed in the West with last night’s 114-92 rout of the Clippers, cashing easily as a 16½-point home favorite. New Orleans will play the No. 7 seed in the first round of the playoffs, with Dallas currently holding that spot. If the Mavericks win tonight or the Nuggets lose to Memphis in Denver, the Mavs will be the No. 7 seed; otherwise, they will be the No. 8 seed and take on the top-seeded Lakers, while the Hornets would play Denver.
Dallas fell to lowly Seattle 99-95 Sunday night as an 11½-point road chalk, its fourth straight ATS setback. The Mavs are just 5-5 in their last 10 starts (4-6 ATS), although they have gone 3-0 at home during this stretch (1-2 ATS).
New Orleans has taken two of three from the Mavs this season, including a 104-93 win as a 3½-point home favorite on Feb. 20. In the lone battle at Dallas, however, the Mavs posted an 89-80 victory, barely covering as an 8½-point chalk back in December. The favorite is on a 6-2 ATS run in this rivalry, and Dallas is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes at home.
The Hornets are an eye-popping 26-6-2 ATS in their last 34 games when playing on back-to-back nights and are on further positive pointspread runs of 38-17-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the highway, 6-2-1 against winning teams and 7-2 against the Western Conference. The lone negative: a 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 on the road against teams with a winning home record.
The Mavericks are on ATS streaks of 36-15-1 against the Southwest Division and 6-2 in Wednesday games, but they are on slides of 3-8 ATS against winning teams, 1-5 ATS on two days’ rest and 1-6 ATS at home.
For New Orleans, the under is on streaks of 4-2 overall, 7-2 against the West, 4-1 on the highway and 7-2-1 against winning teams. For Dallas, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at home and 7-3 against divisional rivals. Finally, the under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 series meetings between these clubs and 7-0 in the last seven clashes in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Utah (54-27, 46-35 ATS) vs. San Antonio (55-26, 36-43-2 ATS)
Utah travels to the AT&T Center – where it hasn’t won since 1999 – to take on San Antonio in a battle to determine the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
Red-hot Utah dropped Houston 105-96 Monday night, narrowly cashing as an 8½-point home chalk for their seventh consecutive spread-cover (6-1 SU). The Jazz, who are 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 overall, will be the No. 3 seed with a win tonight or a No. 4 seed with a loss.
San Antonio, which won the NBA title last season as the third seed in the West, edged Sacramento 101-98 Monday but failed to cover as a 6½-point road favorite, their second straight pointspread setback. The Spurs are on a 1-5 ATS skid (3-3 SU), but they are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five home starts. San Antonio is guaranteed the No. 3 seed with a victory over Utah, but can slip as low as No. 6 under various scenarios.
These two teams met 12 days ago in Utah, with the Jazz holding the Spurs to a season low in points in posting a 90-64 blowout victory as a three-point chalk, improving to 2-1 against San Antonio this season. The Spurs did win at home, though, 104-98 in a pick ‘em contest in December. The favorite is on a 12-2 ATS tear in this rivalry, the home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 battles, and the Spurs are on a 7-0 ATS spree against the Jazz at the AT&T Center.
The ATS trends are nothing but positive for the Jazz, including 5-0 after a SU win, 5-0 on one day of rest, 6-0 after a spread-cover, 13-3 against the Southwest Division, 22-7 against the Western Conference and 36-15-1 against winning teams.
The Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight when going on one days’ rest. However, they are in pointspread funks of 4-10 against winning teams, 3-10 after a non-cover and 2-7 against the Northwest Division.
For Utah, the under is 4-1 in its last five overall and 9-2-1 in its last 12 against the Southwest Division, but the over is 7-3 in its last 10 against winning teams. For San Antonio, the under is on streaks of 4-0 against the Northwest, 7-2 on Wednesday and 47-23-1 after a non-cover. On the flip side, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings between these rivals, including 5-0 in the last five battles at the AT&T Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Considering how the Timberwolves have never covered a game in April for coach Randy Whitman (0-9 ATS over last two seasons), we don't know why they'd start doing so here. Milwaukee posted 151 points Monday night against Chicago and Minnesota would have nowhere near the firepower neccessary to contend if something like that were to occur here. Since the T'Wolves have allowed their last seven opponents to all score 100+, it very well may.
Play on: Milwaukee
Alex Smart
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins Under 9.5
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays and their hosts the Minnesota Twins will square of tonight in the Metrodome, as they send two quality hurlers to the hill to face each other. The Twins will show case veteran thrower Livan Hernandez (3-0, 2.57 ERA) who signed a free-agent contract with the team in the off season. The right-hander, has not disappointed, showing he is capable of being a work horse, going 7 innings each time to out, while allowing just seven runs and 21 hits, while walking only one in his three starts. His pitching opponent James Shields(1-1,3.00 ERA) is currently the Rays top man on the hill, statistically speaking, and is off a solid effort last time out in Tropicana Field debut, allowing 2 ERs in 6 quality innings of work. He is a solid contributor in this Rays rotation, and is ready for another fine effort. The Rays bullpen is also much improved, and will support Shields well , if need be. Considering the pitching matchup, and the two average batting orders, that will face them Im expecting a fairly low scoring game that will fail to eclipse the number. Final notes & Key Trends: The Twins have averaged 2.7 RPG at home this season. The under is 6-0 in Shields L/6 road starts. These teams have only eclipsed the total in 2 of their L/10 meetings. Play Under
Bob Akmens
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics Under 8.0
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 154 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –
The SEATTLE MARINERS go UNDER when:Felix Hernandez starts on the road: 7-3 UNDER last 10
The OAKLAND A’s go UNDER when:Joe Blanton starts at home: 8-2 UNDER last 10
Go with UNDER 8 RUNS in this 10:05 PM ET matchup
Matt Fargo
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Colorado Rockies
San Diego took this opener last night behind another brilliant performance from Randy Wolf which came as a huge surprise. That makes two straight wins for the Padres but that is where it gets capped as they have yet to win more than two straight this season. The offense broke out for six runs but it was still another poor hitting night as San Diego has now hit .233 or worse in four of its last five games and has averaged only 2.8 rpg over its last six games. The Padres are hitting just .233 against lefties.
The Rockies were shutout for the second time this season but I expect a big bounce back here. They struggled to start the season by averaging just 1.7 rpg in their first seven games but upped that to 6.8 rpg in their next five games before last night. Colorado has won four of its last seven games after starting the year 1-5. The loss last night snapped a five-game winning streak in this series but the Rockies are still a solid 53-26 in their last 79 against a team with a winning record dating back to last season.
When we get down to the bottom rotation starters, it is time to look to go against them. When that pitcher is the 5th starter and has yet to allow a run in his first two starts, we really take a look at a go against. That is the case with Justin Germano who has not allowed a run in his first two starts of the season. That may line the public behind him, but I am clearly going the other way. San Diego has scored one run in those games and run support is contagious. He is 0-3 with an 8.34 ERA in five starts against the Rockies.
I have never been high on Mark Redman but he has been solid for Colorado and he does have some good things going his way here. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings against Arizona in his season opener, but allowed two runs in five innings against the Braves last time out. Most important, there were no walks unlike the first outing which showed some uncharacteristic wildness. He has a 3.86 ERA since coming to the Rockies last season and in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, he has a 1.74 career ERA covering 10.1 innings. Play Colorado Rockies 1.5 Units
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Atlanta w/Hudson
Note: Braves take on the Marlins behind Tim Hudson at Dolphin Stadium in Game Two of this three game set looking to rebound off last night's 4-0 whitewash loss. Hudson certainly enjoys hurling against Florida as evidenced by his 9-2 career team start mark with a 2.47 ERA, including 5-1 with a 2.33 ERA in this park. With Hudson zoned in KW form with 2 walks and 12 strikeouts in his three starts this season, look for the Braves to even the score here tonight.
Dave Cokin
Brewers @ Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -125
Bargain price on the Cardinals with their #1 (Wainwright) against the Brewers #4/5 (Villanueva). Pitcher vs. hitter numbers favor Wainwright and I'm seeing Villanueva get into big trouble the second time through the lineup. He's borderline to stay in the Milwaukee rotation with Gallardo coming off the DL, and might only survive because Dave Bush has been brutal. I'll side with the Cardinals here.
Great Lakes Sports
Milwaukee at Minnesota
Play on: Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are 13-9 ATS after scoring 105 points or more this year, and 82-60 ATS after three or more consecutive losses since 1996 while the Minnesota Timberwolves are a terrible 8-21 ATS when playing in April the last three years, and 39-69 ATS when playing in the second half of the season the last three years. We look for the Milwaukee Bucks to dismantle the Minnesota Timberwolves for the road ATS Win & cover tonight.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
Reason: At 8:15pm our member selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Milwaukee Brewers. There's been a recent trend in Major League pitchers who were relievers and then converted to starters for their teams. And that trend is...they're not very successful. Two names that come to mind are the Cards' Braden Looper (4.94 ERA last year in his first season as a starter) and the A's Justin Duchscherer (already on the DL after only one start this year). But St. Louis righthander Adam Wainwright seems to have bucked that trend. Wainwright had a 3.70 ERA last season in 32 starts (his first season as a member of the rotation) and this year, he is continuing that success with a 3.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his first two starts. Wainwright is just entering his prime (26 years old) and he should have no problem continuing this new-found success on the mound. He couldn't have asked for a better matchup tonight against a Milwaukee team that is 2-8 in its last 10 meetings against St. Louis. Furthermore he has a bullpen behind him that is one of the best in the Majors this year. St. Louis is 10-4 overall this year, including 6-1 at home. Take the Cards.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Indiana Pacers
Reason: Both team's will be glad to close out a disappointing season tonight. The Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. In their last 18 games following a SU loss the Knicks are 5-13 ATS. The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. In their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record they are 6-2 ATS. The Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their alst 11 games vs. a losing SU record. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Pacers -.
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Arizona (Webb) -1.5 (-105**) over San Francisco (Zito)
Toronto (Litsch) -135** over Texas (Gabbard)
New York Yankees (Wang) -145** over Boston (Buchholz)
L.A. Dodgers (Penny) -1.5 (+110**) over Pittsburgh (Maholm)
Terron Chapman
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Detroit Tigers
Much has been made of Detroit's early season struggles, but lost in the discussion, is the struggles of the defending AL central champs. The Indians have not fared much better than their division rivals, going 5-9 to start the season and now welcome the Tigers to Jacobs Field this evening. They will send C.C. Sabathia to the mound who has struggled to say the least so far this season, posting an 0-2 record with a 11.67 ERA. C.C. looks to get back on track against a team he went 3-1 against last year in five starts but struggled somewhat posting a 5.29 ERA in those starts.
The Tigers come into this evenings game winners of their last two and are starting to swing the bats like everyone expected. The Tigers scored 17 runs in their two game sweep of the Twins and come into this game with some momentum. The Tigers come into this game with nothing to lose as the pressure to win and start performing up to expectations now falls on the shoulders of the Indians. The tribe has not fared well in this role lately, going 1-7 their last 8 as chalk. The Indians are just 2-5 in Sabathia's last 7 home starts against the Tigers.
With Sabathia struggling and the offense struggling as well, hitting just .241 so far this season, 2nd worst in the AL, we can find good value in making a slight play on the visiting team here. Play the Tigers for 1 unit.
Sportsbettingstats
Boston Red Sox (9-6) at New York Yankees (8-7)
The Yankees come into this game after beating the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5-3, while Boston beat the Cleveland Indians 5-3. This is a match up of last weekend's series and even features the same pitching match up as the weekend's series opener. What a difference a week makes, as after losing the first game of that series to the Yankees the Red Sox have reeled off 4 straight wins and now are in 1st place in the AL East. The Yankees are only 1 game back at 8-7.
Taking the mound for the Yankees is Chien-Ming Wang (3-0 1.23 ERA), who was stellar in the opener in their last series with the Red Sox going 9 innings and giving up only 1 run on 2 hits earning the win. Wang has the 5th lowest ERA in the American League and was un-hittable in his last outing against the Red Sox. In their last game the Yankees scored 5 runs on 10 hits and left 10 men on base in the win. Hideki Matsui hit his 3rd homer of the season. On defense the Yankees game up 3 runs on 10 hits to the Devil Rays. Taking the mound for the Red Sox is Clay Buchholz (0-1 3.27 ERA) who pitched well against the Yanks over the weekend going 6 innings giving up only 1 earned run. This is his second straight start against Wang and that match up is not a good one for Buchholz, unless he tosses a gem. In their last game against the Indians the Red Sox scored 5 runs on 13 hits committed 1 error and left 9 men on base. Jason Varitek hit his 3rd home run of the season for the Red Sox. On defense the Red Sox gave up 3 runs on 8 hits to Cleveland.
Staff Pick: In this heated rivalry the favorite has to be New York, as their staff ace is on the mound. The middle of the Boston lineup is hitting well and even David Ortiz has started to hit and now is, at least, hitting above .100, being at .113. Boston (.274) has the 2nd highest batting average as a team in the American League and will have to step it up against Yankees Ace to have any chance in this game. The Yanks (.262) are in the middle of the pack in terms of team batting average, but their middle of their lineup is starting to hit well, as Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Hideki Matsui are all hitting above .300. The key to this game is the pitching match up, as if Wang continues to pitch like he has all season Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz will have to pitch his best game for the Red Sox to be successful. Look for a low scoring game, but for the Yankees to win in the Big Apple behind their big gun Chien-Ming Wang.
Yankees 4 Red Sox 1
BuckShotBoys Washington/NY Mets Over 9
lasvegassportsadvisors Pittsburgh -0.5
MustWinSportsPicks Nashville
DCI Pro Hockey
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game 4, best-of-7
New Jersey vs. N.Y. RANGERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Pittsburgh vs. OTTAWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game 4, best-of-7
Detroit 3, NASHVILLE 2
Jim Feist.
NJ Nets and BOS Celtics.
Take "BOS Celtics"
Boston has had the No. 1 seed sewn up for a while, yet that hasns"t stopped them from winning or covering. The Celtics are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS the last 11 games. This is the final regular season home game and they have a shot at 66-wins, third best in team history. New Jersey is on vacation after this game, and playing like a team that doesns't care, at 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS the last 8 games. Boston's bench is young, hungry and very good. Play the Celtics!
CAPPERS ACCESS
Astros
W. Sox
T'Wolves