AAA Sports
Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins - Under 9
Note: This has been one of my favorite plays for a very long time and that is when Tim Hudson steps onto the mound. His games are 6-1 UNDER the last 7 and 5-0 UNDER the last 5 while on the road. He is a damn good thrower and off to another great start for his Braves. In 21 innings thrown he has spotted the opposition just 12 hits and only 2 bases on balls. What makes him so good is his ability to keep the ball down in the strikezone and his very good control that does not allow for many additional runners. Because he does these things so well, he rarely gives up a dinger. That is a good thing at this park and perhaps why he is 4-0 with a 1.87 ERA in five starts at Dolphin Stadium. He has been successful verses this team as he is 6-1 with a 2.28 ERA in 10 starts against Florida. Of course he is pretty tough on just about everyone he throws at so this comes to no surprise to me. He is more than likely going to give us some quality innings and probably a lot of them as he usually does. These Marlins are hitting the ball this year but will be hardpressed to do well verses Tim. That gives us a good jumpstart on accomplishing our goal tonight. This park can get windy and we are expecting those tonight but they are primarily coming either in from leftfield or left to right across the diamond. At best the winds will not be a factor for this contest. The Marlins first thrower today has been up and down throughout his career, but mostly up this year with reasonable numbers and less hits given per innings thrown. While he has not beaten the Braves, in two starts versus Atlanta, he does have a 4.15 ERA. That is good enough for me to pull the trigger with an Atlanta team that is 9-2 UNDER their last 12 road games. The Homeplate Umpire is a bit of a concern as he has demonstrated to me that his zone is a bit too wee but both starters have better than average control. Marlins bats have cooled a bit, scoring just 5 times over 3 games and they will face their toughest opponent tonight with Mr Hudson. It takes 10 to beat us tonight and more times than not, that is not going to happen.
Wayne Root
Chairman Brewers
Millionaire Mariners
No Limit Yankees
Winning Points Online
MLB
NY YANKEES (Wang) -155 over BOSTON (Buchholz)
Tonight's game is a rematch of a game that was played 5 days ago in Boston where Chien-Ming Wang pitched a complete game surrendering just two hits.In fact he has just given up 3 earned runs in total this season. He will be opposed by Clay Buchholz who has shown some promise this season but should be no match for a New York team who seems to have found a groove.Derek Jeter has returned to the lineup for the Yanks and has 5 hits in their last 2 games, and has seemed to spark a dormant offense. We expect the Yankees to take the young Buchholz to school tonight.
NBA
**PREFERRED
Dallas* over New Orleans by 14
The game we were waiting for has materialized with a situation attached to it, although not in the manner expected. The original thinking was that Dallas had to win to prevent New Orleans from being #1, therebyavoiding a First Round match-up of #2 Lakers vs. #7 Mavericks.
Instead, Dallas must win to ensure the #7 spot, avoiding a fall to #8 and a First Round match-up with #1 LA, and cementing an instant re-hook with #2 New Orleans that would begin over the weekend.
The Hornets stayed on their home floor for a half-hour after last night's win against the Clippers, celebratingtheir division title with their fans. Would Hornets' head coach Byron Scott mind losing tonight's second of back- to-backs off the division title, and making the First Round match-up with Dallas happen? Well, Jason Kidd plays on Dallas, and Scott despises Kidd (and vice-versa from their time as fake head coach and chief basket-clanger in New Jersey), the overrated bum who thinks he should run the teams he plays for. It's destiny for these two clowns to be forced to look at each other and think bad thoughts six or seven times in the next two weeks.
DALLAS 105-91
ChicagoSportsConnection
CHICAGO BULLS -6.5 vs Toronto
Bulls trying to avoid a 50 loss season......Raptors locked in to 6th playoff spot....will rest players in 2nd Half.
SEATTLE +100 @ Oakland
A's playing in Chicago yesterday made me take a hard look at this one.A's were on an 8 game road trip and we like betting against a home team returning from a long trip.Seattle has won 5 of 8 and are swinging the bats well.Oakland has struggled at the plate in L3.
Gambler's Data
1* Dodgers
1* Angels
1* Mets
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Rockets -14 over Clippers
Major League Baseball
Astros -110 over Phillies
Oswalt/Kendrick
Savannah Sports
3 units on NYY -150
Larry Ness
Wonderful Wednesday Total-MLB (3-1 TY)
Playing very selectively, Larry was 28-13 with his MLB totals during MLB '07. He's found a few more opportunities in the early going of '08 but he's also been just as successful, winning THREE of his four totals so far. Looking for a game which will 'fly' over Then look no further than Larry's Wonderful Wednesday Total.
Over Baltimore
Sebastian
MLB
100* Seattle Mariners
20 Houston
20 Atlanta
20 Toronto
20 LA Angels
20 NY Yankees
10 Colorado
NBA
30 Detroit
20 NJ
30 Dallas
50 Chicago
50 Houston LAC Under
NHL
10 Pitt/Ott Under
20 NJ/NYR Over
10 Detroit
GOLD SHEET'S LTS
NBA
"OVER" 204 points WASHINGTON at ORLANDO
SAN ANTONIO (- 4 1/2)-home over Utah
HOUSTON (-14) -home over L.A. Clippers
Bob Akmens
Detroit Red Wings/Nashville Predators Over 5.0 (-120) / 3 units
Sports Lock
Toronto Raptors vs. Chicago Bulls
The Raptors head to the United Center to take on the Chicago Bulls. The Raptors currently the #6 seed in the Eastern conference playoffs look to secure that seed with a victory in Chicago. How important is the #6 seed, dropping to the 7th seed would seal a date with Detroit instead of Orlando. The Bulls on the other hand will simply be looking to end a miserable season on a positive note. The Bulls have played far below expectations all season long. Chicago has not covered well at home going 16-24 against the spread. The raptors however are a respectable 22-18 ATS away. In their last 2 games against the Bulls the Raptors won by 15 at home and 30 the last time they visited the United Center, covering easily in both games. Toronto has won 3 of their last 4 only faltering at Detroit. Even though the Bulls torched the Bucks for 151 points in their last game don’t look for a repeat performance. The stats don’t lie and the Bulls are the leagues worst shooting team at a dismal 43.5%. In a match-up like this taking the points is your best bet. Take Toronto to cover and don’t be surprised if they walk away with a win.
Lock = Toronto Raptors +7
DOC'S
Take Charlotte/Philadelphia UNDER 201½
Take Utah/San Antonio OVER 182
ferringo
NOTE: I know this amount of plays seems excessive, but we have a very, very similar setup to Saturday when I posted five sides and six totals and went 10-1. The same umpires that were working those games, for the most part, are back in rotation and are behind the plate tonight. Add that with the setups from the Tuesday series openers/Game 2's and these plays are just falling into place with some great odds. Already looking ahead to Thursday I see no more than 3-4 plays on the board, so this is our last big day of the week. And, likely, this will be the last time this month that I release all of the plays that meet my criteria. Here's to hoping for a big Hump Day with results similar to Saturday's.
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 Arizona at San Francisco
1.5-Unit Play. Take #901 Arizona (-165) over San Francisco
The ‘over’ is 10-3-1 in Mark Wegner’s last 14 games behind home plate and 38-28 (58 percent) since the start of 2006. He has seen an average of 27 baserunners per game in his three behind the dish, and I don’t think Barry Zito’s curveball is going to be called a strike too often. Zito has been getting knocked around and is terrible in April (13-21 in his career) and average during the day. The Diamondbacks are crushing left-handed pitching, averaging over seven runs per game against six southpaws this year. Webb’s ERA is a little higher than his average in day games and against San Fran. I think if the Giants can just scratch out two runs here we should be good. Brandon Webb is 14-3 in April. He is an automatic play.
5.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Atlanta at Florida
1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-140) over Florida
Note: This is our Total of the Month.
There was a little bad blood last night between these two teams. I think both lineups are going to come to the park focused today and I think this one is going WAY over the total. Brian O’Nora is an ‘over’ ump and has seen an average of 10 runs, seven walks, and 19 hits in his three games behind home plate. The ‘over’ is 7-3 in Atlanta’s last 10 against a southpaw (Mark Hendrickson isn’t exactly lights out) and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Also, the ‘over’ is 51-22-5 in Florida’s last 78 divisional games. That’s a phenomenal trends. And with these lineups, bullpens, umps and this number I think we’re in a good spot. The Braves are down a closer (Soriano) and their best setup man (Moylan) from an already awful pen. If Hudson can't go seven - and if he does, we're going to win our side pretty handily - then the Braves bullpen is going to give up at least four runs on its own.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 Pittsburgh at Los Angeles (10 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
Little known fact: Brad Penny is an ‘over’ pitcher. Yeah. The guy can hurl, but his games have a penchant for sailing the total. The ‘over’ is 26-10 in his last 36 home starts and 24-10 with him as a home favorite. The ‘over’ is also a ridiculous 23-4 in the last 27 meetings between these two clubs. Again: 23-4. The Pirates can swing the bat this year. The over is 8-2 in their last ten and 9-3-1 in their last 13 on the road. Mix in the fact that Paul Maholm stinks and that the Dodgers wear out left-handed pitching and I think we’re in good shape here. Oh yeah, and we have Jim Reynolds behind the dish. The ‘over’ is 23-13 in his last 36 and an absurd 10-2 in his last 12. I’m looking for a tight zone and two big innings to send us over.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Washington at New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+180) over New York Mets
All three of Mike Winters’ games have sailed the total this year. He’s seen an average of over 11 runs per game while issuing eight walks and 20 hits per outing. That tight strike zone could get exploited by two tough lineups today. Washington is going to break out soon, and when guys like Delgado and Wright are as locked in as they are the Mets can put up runs in a hurry. Heck, the Mets could cover this one on their own if they get to Matt Chico. The ‘over’ is 17-5-1 in New York’s last 23 divisional games and 9-2-1 in their last 12 against a left-handed starter. The ‘over’ is also 6-2 in Matt Chico’s last eight starts overall. If John Maine isn’t getting that corner strike his ball becomes awful hittable awful quick. If it's a wild, high-scoring games that gives the Nats a much better chance to win. And as long as New York is sub-.500 they can't be laying this type of number.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (+105) over Philadelphia
I know Roy Oswalt has been terrible, but I will take him with plus-money. The Astros were the better team yesterday before a fluke collapse. They get us back that money and then some.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-135) over Texas
Jesse Litsch is really developing into a fine young pitcher. The Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 on turf and I think very soon we're going to see the Blue Jays get very hot. The swept the Rangers in Texas, and the Rangers aren't a great road team, so I see a similar beatdown coming.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+110) over Tampa Bay
James Shields is 7-17 on the road and the Rays are 6-20 in their last 26 trips to Minnesota. Twins is playing great - with the exception of awful, dreadful, pathetic eighth innings the last two nights. Tampa can't put that kind of late pressure on with their lineup though, and I think we're getting great odds here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Seattle (+100) over Oakland
King Felix has been sensational to this point in the season and he always seems to throw exceptionally well against the A's. Oakland has been playing great, but I really am waiting for them to hit a wall playing in their fourth city in eight days. Again, these odds are off and just too good to overlook.
ANTON WINS
Today's 3 unit MLB play is Florida/M.Hendrickson +150
Lenny Del Genio
Lenny Del Genio's MLB Triple Play (75% TY!)
Play on Toronto at 7:05 ET. Toronto just killed lefties at the Rogers Centre last year (18-5), but are off to a bit of a stunning 0-2 start vs. southpaws this year averaging 2.6 runs per game. That should change tonight against the Rangers' Kason Gabbard, who will be making his first ever start against the Blue Jays. He missed out on last weekend's Blue Jays sweep back in Arlington, where Texas was outscored 17-10 in the three-game set. Toronto is right near the top of the AL in batting average (.282) and hit .331 with 30 runs scored over a five-game road swing that saw the them go 4-1. They come in off their best performance yet; an 11-run, 16-hit performance against Baltimore on Tuesday. The Jays hit .321 against Texas pitching last weekend when they recorded their first road sweep of the Rangers since 1985. Texas has had no luck North of the Border, where they've lost six straight for the first time since '94. Losers of five straight, the Rangers are off to their worst start since 2002. Take Toronto.
Play on St. Louis at 8:15 ET. The Brewers a) aren't a very good road team (-$1745 last year) and b) aren't very good against the Cards (lost eight of 10 against them). That was apparent Tuesday night when St. Louis clobbered them, 6-1. Milwaukee was held to just three hits and tonight faces the tough Adam Wainwright, who looked sharp in his lone home outing this year (2 ER in 8 innings of work). Last night's win was the Cards' sixth straight win at home. NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun may return tonight for Milwaukee, but he is currently mired in a 3 for 25 slump, so that really doesn't help. Take St.Louis.
Play on Seattle at 10:05 ET. Oakland seems to have cooled off a bit (lost two of three) so this looks like a great spot to play against them considering how atrocious they were last year vs right-handed starters (-$1875). M's starter Felix Hernandez didn't allow a single earned run in his first 15 innings of work this season (two no-decisions!) before a sub-par performance (four runs allowed) last time out vs. the Angels, a game which he won! A's hitters did not show up in either of starter Joe Blanton's two home starts this season, giving him two whole runs. Hernandez went 4-0 against the Athletics last year and has a career ERA of 2.29 against them. Take Seattle.