SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(7) Philadelphia (41-42, 43-37-3 ATS) at (2) Detroit (59-24, 45-37-1 ATS)
After pulling off a stunning upset win in Game 1, the 76ers now try to turn the trick again when they face the desperate Pistons in Game 2 at the Palace of Auburn Hills.
Philadelphia rallied from a 15-point third-quarter deficit to post a 90-86 victory Sunday as a 9½-point road underdog. The Sixers, who outshot Detroit 43.2 percent to 39 percent, snapped a four-game SU and ATS losing skid in winning their first game since April 9, when they topped the Pistons 101-94 as a 4½-point home favorite.
Detroit, which had won and covered four straight since losing in Philadelphia, has now dropped five consecutive playoff games and is 0-6 ATS in its last six postseason contests (0-4 ATS at home) going back to last year’s Eastern Conference finals series against Cleveland. On the bright side, Flip Saunders’ team is still 9-3 in its last 12 overall (7-5 ATS) and 13-2 in its last 15 at home (10-5 ATS).
Philadelphia is now 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS against the Pistons this season, including three consecutive wins and covers. The road team is now 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series battles, including 5-1 ATS in the last six, with the 76ers cashing in four straight trips to Motown. Finally, despite Sunday’s result, the favorite is still 12-6-1 ATS in the last 19 head-to-head battles.
Philadelphia is on ATS streaks of 10-3 on the road, 14-6-1 as a pup, 7-2 as a road ‘dog, 8-2 against the Central Division, 7-2 on Wednesdays and 4-1-1 when playing on two days’ rest. The only negative: The Sixers are still only 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a playoff underdog.
Detroit is on ATS runs of 5-2 at home and 6-3 against the Eastern Conference. On the downside, the Pistons are mired in pointspread slumps of 5-11-1 in the playoffs since the start of last year’s postseason, 5-16-1 as a playoff favorite (0-7 last seven as a playoff chalk), 1-3-1 in first-round playoff games, 2-7 against the Atlantic Division and 1-7 on Wednesdays.
Sunday’s game fell just short of the 179½-point posted total, so the under is now on streaks of 6-2 in series meetings in Detroit, 10-3 for the Pistons overall, 12-2 for the Pistons against the Eastern Conference and 6-1 for the Pistons as a favorite. Meanwhile, the over-under has alternated in the 76ers’ last eight contests, and the over is still 7-4-1 in Philly’s last 12 as a road ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
(8) Atlanta (37-46, 37-45-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (67-16, 53-28-2 ATS)
After easily taking care of business in a Game 1 rout on Sunday, the top-seeded Celtics once again hit the floor at the TD Banknorth Garden as a double-digit favorite to crush the Hawks in Game 2.
The Celtics showed why they’re such massive favorites to easily dispose of the Hawks in this best-of-7 series, cruising to a 104-81 victory as a 15-point home chalk on Sunday. Six players scored in double figures for Boston, which had a 47 percent to 38 percent edge in field-goal shooting, including going 9-for-16 from three-point land, while Atlanta missed 14 of its 17 long-range attempts.
Boston has won 12 of its last 13 games going back to the regular season, going 11-2 ATS. That includes an ongoing 5-0 SU and ATS winning streak.
The Hawks, who are back in the postseason for the first time since 1999, have now lost four straight games and six of their last eight, both SU and ATS. In fact, the winner has cashed in each of the team’s last 10 games.
Doc Rivers’ Celtics are 4-0 against Atlanta this year (3-1 ATS), easily winning all four games by double digits, with the three home wins coming by an average of 18.7 points per game. Still, the underdog is 7-4 ATS in the last 11 clashes.
Not only is Boston 36-6 at Banknorth Garden this season, but it is 26-15-1 ATS as a host, including seven straight spread-covers coming into this contest. Additionally, the Celtics are on ATS streaks of 20-6 overall, 9-2 as a favorite and 5-0 against Eastern Conference foes.
Atlanta is stuck in ATS ruts of 1-5 as an underdog, 0-4 against the Eastern Conference, 6-15 as a road ‘dog, 4-9 on Wednesday and 11-23 in road games against teams with a winning home mark.
Sunday’s game stayed under the total, making the under 4-0 in the four meetings this year and 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head clashes in Boston. Also, for the Celtics, the under is on runs of 8-3 overall, 11-3 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 against the Southeast Division and 7-1 at home against teams with a losing road mark.
On the flip side, for the Hawks, the over is still on runs of 9-4 overall, 8-4 against the Eastern Conference, 7-4 on the road, 10-5 on the highway against teams with a winning home record, 4-0 on Wednesdays and 6-3 against the Atlantic Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(8) Denver (50-33, 44-39 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (58-25, 48-34-1 ATS)
The Lakers look to continue their season-long dominance of the Nuggets when these teams resume their best-of-7 Western Conference quarterfinal series at the Staple Center.
Los Angeles turned a narrow two-point halftime advantage into an easy 128-114 victory in Game 1, easily cashing as an 8½-point home favorite, improving to 5-0 SU and ATS against Denver this season. In his first playoff game with the Lakers (and his first-ever playoff victory) Pau Gasol went 14-for-20 from the field and finished with game-highs of 36 points and 16 rebounds, while Kobe Bryant chipped in 32 points despite missing 17 of 26 field-goal attempts.
The Lakers are on a 9-1 run dating to the regular season, but they’re just 5-5 ATS during this stretch. Also, they’re only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home outings.
Denver, which had to win four of its last five regular-season games to get into the playoffs for the fifth straight year, got 30 points each from superstars Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony in Game 1. But it wasn’t enough for George Karl’s team to avoid its fifth consecutive SU and ATS playoff defeat (all as an underdog) going back to last year’s opening-round, five-game loss to the eventual champion Spurs.
The Lakers are now 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Denver dating back to 2005. What’s more, Los Angeles is on an 8-1 SU and ATS run against the Nuggets in the Staples Center, and the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 series clashes.
Denver, which has failed to get out of the first round in each of its last four playoff appearances dating to 1994, is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 following a SU defeat and 4-1 ATS in its last five Wednesday contests. However, the Nuggets are 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog of five to 10½ points.
The Lakers are on ATS streaks of 4-1 overall (all as a favorite) and 19-9 after a spread-cover. On the downside, Phil Jackson’s squad is only 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine as a playoff favorite and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 against winning teams.
Game 1 flew over the 224-point posted total, making the over 4-1 in the Lakers’ last five home games and 4-1 in the Lakers’ last five first-round playoff contests. However, for the Nuggets, the under is still on streaks of 5-1 overall, 14-4 as a playoff underdog, 5-3 on the highway and 16-5 in first-round playoff games. Also, the under is still 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings at Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
MLB
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (15-5) at L.A. Dodgers (8-12)
The red-hot Diamondbacks head to Dodger Stadium for the first time this season looking to pad their lead in the N.L. West in the opener of a brief two-game series. Arizona is set to send Dan Haren (3-0, 1.80) to the mound opposite L.A.’s Derek Lowe 1-0, 2.59).
Since starting the season 1-2, Arizona has won 14 of its last 17 to build a six-game lead in the N.L. West. The DBacks, who are the only team in the West with a winning record, capped a 4-1 homestand with Tuesday’s 5-4 victory over the Giants. Also, they’re 5-1 in their last six on the road.
The Dodgers lost 8-1 at the Reds last night, ending a five-game road trip with a 1-4 record. Los Angeles is 4-10 in its last 14 games (3-3 at home).
L.A.’s current 4-10 slump began when it got swept in a three-game series at Arizona from April 7-9. Going back to last season, the DBacks are on a 9-3 run against the Dodgers (4-2 in Los Angeles).
Haren, who was acquired in the offseason from Oakland, has been terrific in his first year in the desert, giving up a total of five earned runs in four starts while pitching at least six innings in each outing. On Friday against the Padres, the righthander scattered three hits and a walk over seven scoreless innings en route to a 9-0 victory. Haren is 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts (all at home), with the DBacks outscoring the opposition 28-6 during this run. Furthermore, going back to last September, Haren has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts.
In Haren’s lone road start of the season, he gave up three runs in six innings, failing to get a decision in a 6-5 Arizona loss in Cincinnati. After that outing, he faced the Dodgers at home and yielded three runs (one earned) in six innings in a 9-3 victory.
Lowe is coming off his shortest stint of the season, as he lasted just 4 1/3 innings in Fridays 6-1 loss in Atlanta, giving up five runs (three earned) on eight hits and four walks. However, in two home starts this year, the veteran right-hander has been terrific, going 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA.
Lowe went 1-2 despite a solid 2.89 ERA in three starts against the DBacks last year, but he’s 3-6 with a 4.45 ERA lifetime against the division rivals.
The under is 6-2 in Lowe’s last eight starts overall (3-1 at home) and 5-1 in Lowe’s last six against the DBacks. However, the over is 3-0-1 when Haren pitches this season.
The Dodgers have followed up a 7-2 “over” streak by going 3-1-1 “under” in their last five, and the under is 6-2 in the last eight series meetings between these teams in L.A. However, the over is still 5-1 in the last six at Dodger Stadium. Also, the over is 8-2-1 in Arizona’s last 11 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (11-10) at Chicago White Sox (11-8)
The Yankees and White Sox continue a three-game series at U.S. Cellular Field, with Mike Mussina (1-3, 5.75) scheduled to oppose Chicago’s Javier Vazquez (3-1, 3.20).
New York got big home runs from Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon en route to Tuesday’s 9-5 rout of the White Sox for its second straight win, which comes on the heels of a three-game slide. Despite last night’s result, the Yankees are still just 6-6 on the road this season.
Since starting the season with consecutive losses, Chicago has won 11 of its last 17, though it has alternated wins and losses in its last six games. Also, the Sox are now just 4-4 at home on the season.
The Yankees have won six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry going back to last June, including four straight in the Windy City.
Mussina got rocked in his last two starts, both against the Red Sox, allowing a combined nine runs (all earned) on 15 hits in 8 2/3 innings, losing 4-3 in Boston and 7-5 at home. Going back to last season, New York is 4-8 in the veteran right-hander’s last 12 starts (1-4 on the road).
Mussina went 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA in three starts against the White Sox last year, which mirror his career numbers against the White Sox (16-16, 4.63 ERA in 37 starts). At U.S. Cellular, Mussina is 8-9 with a 4.22 ERA in 19 starts.
Since losing his 2008 debut at Cleveland, Vazquez has been fantastic, going 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA in three starts, with the White Sox outscoring the opposition 27-6. That includes Friday’s 9-2 victory at Tampa Bay, with the right-hander allowing two runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings. For the season, Vazquez has a 21-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he’s 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA at home.
Vazquez, a former Yankee, is 1-3 with a 5.25 ERA in four starts against his former squad. Last year, he faced New York once (at home) and gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings, falling 5-1.
The over is 8-1 in Vazquez’s last nine starts, including 4-0 this year and 4-1 in his last five at home. However, the under is 4-0 in his four career starts against New York, 3-1 in Mussina’s four outings this season and 6-3 in Mussina’s last nine outings against the White Sox (4-1 in Chicago).
Last night’s game easily eclipsed the posted total, but the under is still 15-6 in Yankee games this season and 7-4 in Chicago’s last 11. Also, the under is 15-8-2 in the last 25 head-to-head meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Alex Smart
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates Under 8.5
Todd Wellemeyer the Cardinals starting pitcher here tonight against the Pirates , has been a great addition to his teams pitching rotation this season, garnering a solid 2-0 record along with a stable 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The righty has struck out an average of one hitter per inning this season. He will face a Pirates offense that owns a lowly .232 overall BA. His pitching opponent from the Pirates , Ian Snell, is 2-1 on the season, along with a 4.07 ERA , and in his last start looked to have corrected some early season control problems. He will pitch to a Cards lineup that is hitting just .252 in road games this season. We have two capable hurlers on the hill tonight, and two inconsistent offenses facing them , which bodes well for a low scoring game in the PNC Park tonight. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 4-0 in Snells last 4 starts vs. National League Central . Under is 4-0 in Wellemeyers last 4 starts vs. National League Central. Snells team is 13-3 UNDER when h e starts against division opponents, with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 7.3 RPG ! Play on the Under
Mike Rose
Chicago White Sox -135
Mike Mussina will be making his fifth start of the season tonight, and he’ll toe the rubber sporting a 1-3 record with a 5.75 ERA. The Yankees lost each of his last two starts against the Red Sox, but his last effort was horrific only seeing him last three innings allowing five earned runs and seven hits to their hated rivals. He won two of his three starts against Chicago last season and sports an overall mark of 11-10 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in his career against the White Sox.
Chicago’s ace, Javier Vazquez, will look to pick up his fourth win of the season when he squares off against the Yanks for the fifth time in his career. He’s coming off another dominating start against Tampa Bay that saw him go six strong allowing six hits and two earned runs in the White Sox 9-2 victory. The two runs he allowed in the sixth inning stopped a streak of 15 shutout innings, and the lone walk he surrendered was the first against the last 75 batters he faced. However, he’s struggled against his former employer going 1-3 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in four career starts.
The Yankees are 0-2 this season as an underdog between +125 and +150 this season, and they’re 1-4 in Mike Mussina’s L/5 starts as an underdog. Making the Yanks even less attractive in this spot is the fact that they’re 6-14 their L/20 when installed a road underdog. On the flipside, the White Sox are 8-1 in Vazquez’ L/9 overall starts, and 5-0 his L/5 starts when installed a favorite between –110 and –150.
James Patrick Sports
Hawks vs. Celtics
These Eastern Conference teams meet in Beantown for the second game of their best of seven series and after a horrible performance by the Birds in game one we look for more scoring in this game and our Wednesday complimentary selection in NBA Play-off action is #513 Atlanta – Boston OVER the TOTAL in NBA Play-off action.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: St. Louis w/Wellemeyer vs Snell
Note: Cardinals take on the Pirates in the middle of this three game set in Pittsburgh knowing they are 16-8 in their last 24 games in the Steel City. With Todd Wellemeyer in solid current form, and 3-0 lifetime in his career team starts on Wednesdays, look for Ian Snell to suffer his 4th straight loss on Wednesdays here tonight.
Dave Cokin
Twins @ A's
Play: A's -145
Chad Gaudin appears to be following his '07 pattern now that he's healthy. The Oakland righty was a big go with pitcher well into June '07 at which point the innings began to pile up and he lost his edge. But he was dynamite early and indications in his last two starts are very positive. Boof Bonser got out of the gate quickly this season, but began regressing last outing and I see more trouble for him here. I like the A's to win this one.
Great Lakes Sports
Philadelphia at Detroit
Play on: Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are heating up going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, and are 39-28 ATS as a favorite this year. The Detroit Pistons are also 26-16 ATS at home this year, and 7-3 ATS when playing in April this year. We look for the Detroit Pistons to roll over the Philadelphia 76ers for the home ATS Win & cover tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: over
Reason: The Cubs have played over the total in 6 of their last 9 games overall. The over is 5-1 in Chicago's last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Colorado has played the over in 9 of their last 12 games. Morales takes his 6.60 ERA to the mound with him tonight. The Rockies have played the over in 5 of his last 6 starts. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is a profitable 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between the clubs. Play the over.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Prediction: over
Reason: At 10:05pm our member selection is on the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres 'over' the total. It's the old vs. the new righthanders as 42 year old certain hall-of-famer Greg Maddux goes to the hill against 24 year old Matt Cain. We would have thought this would probably be Maddux's last season in baseball, but he's started out pitching pretty well so perhaps there is more gas left in the tank. An indication that Maddux still has something left is the fact that, although his ERA is high, his WHIP continues to be low and he can still paint the corners. But both of these talented righthanders had a rough outing in their last, with Maddux and Cain each giving up nine earned runs oddly enough on the same day (April 18). Runs have not been scarce when Cain steps to the mound these days as in his four starts so far this season, a total of 44 runs have been scored, or an average of eleven runs per game. These two teams met back on April 7 in San Francisco with Cain as the starter and the Padres won that one 8-4. In fact in Cain's last three starts against San Diego, the Padres have scored 8, 6, and 6 runs respectively. Take the 'over'.
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers + 10 over (at) Detroit Pistons
Philadelphia is 10-3 ATS last 13 road games. The Sixers have won the last three meetings off beating Detroit 90-86 in game one.
Los Angeles Lakers - 7.5 over Denver Nuggets
Denver is 0-5 ATS last five playoff games. Lakers have won and covered all four meetings this season off beating Denver 128-114 in game one.
MLB
Houston (Sampson) + 135* over (at) Cincinnati (Arroyo)
Houston is 9-1 last ten games at Cincinnati including a 7-2 Sampson win there last April.
Ross Benjamin
Game:Toronto (Halladay) @ Tampa Bay (Hammel)
Pick:Toronto -145
Roy Halladay is 6-0 in his team starts at Tampa with an excellent 2.11 ERA since 2005. The Blue Jays have hit .302 as a team versus right-handed pitching on the road so far in 2008. Since the 2007 season Tampa is 46-83 as an underdog. Play on the Toronto Blue jays as my free selection of the night
John Fina
Texas Rangers/Detroit Tigers Over 10
Today we expect a high-scoring game as the Texas Rangers do battle with the Detroit Tigers. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound poor starting pitchers. The Texas Rangers will send to the mound Luis Mendoza. Luis Mendoza has been struggling this season which is shown by his 9.00 ERA. The Detroit Tigers will send to the mound Kenny Rogers. Kenny Rogers has also struggled this season which is shown by his 6.33 ERA. As you can see, both these teams will be sending to the mound struggling starting pitchers which will lead to many runs scored tonight. Take the Texas Rangers/Detroit Tigers Over 10
JEFF BENTON
Kobe and Co. proved yet again in Sunday?s 14-point rout in Game 1 that they're simply a bad matchup for the Nuggets. Los Angeles not only has won all five meetings with Denver this season, it has covered the number in all five, including cashing as an 8-point home chalk on Sunday. And if you go back to 2005, the Lakers are 9-2 ATS overall against the Nuggets, and in the last nine head-to-head meetings in Hollywood, L.A. is 8-1 both SU and ATS.
So this is a must-play based on series history alone. But even beyond that, there are reasons to favor the Lakers ? most notably, they're simply a better, deeper team. Oh, and they have absolutely no answer for Pau Gasol, who was a maniac in Game 1, scoring 36 points (14-for-20 shooting) and pulling down 16 rebounds, both game highs.
Put it this way: In Game 1, the Nuggets got 30 points each from Carmelo and Iverson, and they saw Kobe make just 9 of 26 field-goal tries and finish with just three rebounds, one assist and five fouls ? and the Lakers STILL won by 14 points! How can they get any closer than that tonight?
Lay the lumber with L.A.
6* L.A. LAKERS
DCI
NBA
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game 2, best-of-7
BOSTON 104, Atlanta 88
DETROIT 95, Philadelphia 87
Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game 2, best-of-7
L.A. LAKERS 119, Denver 111
TONY WESTON
Now, our focuses are on the Hawks and Celtics, playing Game 2 in Boston.
For about a half on Sunday Atlanta looked like it would hang close enough to pick up that win ATS as 15-point dogs. The Hawks were down only 49-40 at halftime, but then fell apart in the second half and showed their inexperience.
That win over the Hawks gave Boston its fifth consecutive win SU and ATS. And over its last 13 games Boston is 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS. Against the Hawks the Celtics are now on a 4-0 run SU and 3-1 mark ATS.
This will be another easy win for Boston. Take the Celtics at home.
3* CELTICS
Bobby Maxwell
The Sixers pulled off the shocker on Sunday and that was when they were supposed to be tense and not able to figure out the Pistons' defense. Now they can play loose, have fun and really put a scare into the perennial Eastern Conference power.
Philadelphia scored a 90-86 victory and actually played better down the stretch than the more experienced Pistons. The Sixers have now beaten Detroit three straight times this season, including two in the Palace at Auburn Hills. And Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Detroit.
The Sixers have become road warriors, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 away from home and 8-2 against Central Division teams. Philadelphia is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 as an underdog and 4-1 in its last five as a road 'dog.
Detroit just didn't look comfortable in the second half after looking very poised in the first half on Sunday. The Pistons are just 2-7 ATS against the Atlantic Division, 5-16-1 ATS as a playoff favorite and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against teams with a SU losing record.
Let's play the youngsters in this one as they are catching double-digit points. Philadelphia proved they can do it in Game 1 and let's watch as they make this one tough on the Pistons. If Detroit wins it's going to be a lot closer than the experts think.
3* PHILADELPHIA
JIM FEIST
Handicappers know that San Diego is the best pitchers park in baseball, great for those on the mound, murder for hitters. The Padres are 7-3 under the total at home. Veteran Greg Maddux has brilliant control, walking 6 in 25 innings and like last year, he's much better at home in this big park. Giants starter Matt Cain has a 2.41 ERA against the light hitting Padres. These teams are last in the NL in runs scored.
Play the Giants/Padres under the total