SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Washington (44-42, 47-39 ATS) at (4) Cleveland (48-38, 40-46 ATS)
The Cavaliers look to end this best-of-7 series in five games – and eliminate the Wizards from the playoffs for the third straight season – when the two teams return to Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.
Cleveland hung on for a 100-97 victory Sunday, cashing as a five-point underdog to bounce back from Thursday’s 108-72 Game 3 thrashing – the worst playoff loss in team history. LeBron James contributed 34 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists in the win, with his final assist being converted into a game-winning three-pointer by Delonte West. Despite its 3-1 lead in this series, Cleveland is still a middling 8-8 SU in its last 16 games overall, going 6-10 ATS in that span.
Washington is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five overall and is just 1-8 in its last nine playoff games (2-7 ATS) – all against the Cavaliers, who have knocked out the Wizards in each of the last two postseasons. This season, the home team is on a 7-1 SU run in this rivalry (5-3 ATS), and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes (playoffs included).
The Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played on two days’ rest, but the team’s pointspread trends all spiral downward from there, including 0-4 on the road, 0-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 0-4 as a playoff ‘dog (all against Cleveland), 2-6 after a SU loss, 3-8 on Wednesday and 2-5 catching less than five points.
The Cavaliers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine against teams with a winning record and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 after a spread-cover, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 5-1 in first-round playoff games – all against Washington – 4-0 as a playoff chalk and 5-0 ATS as a playoff favorite of less than five points.
For Washington, the over is on streaks of 9-6 overall, 23-9 against the Eastern Conference and 7-4 in the playoffs (again, all against Cleveland), but the under is 4-1 in its last five on the highway and 4-1 in its last five as a playoff pup of less than five points. For Cleveland, the under is on tears of 8-2 overall, 5-1 as a favorite, 4-1 after a SU win, 12-3 as a home chalk and 16-5 at home. But the over is 22-10-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 33 when laying less than five points.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over-under has alternated in the last seven games – with the total clearing the 190-point posted price in Game 4 – and the under is 15-7 in the last 22 clashes in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
(8) Atlanta (39-47, 39-46-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (68-18, 54-30-2 ATS)
Having suffered stunning upset losses in Games 3 and 4 in Atlanta, the Celtics suddenly find themselves in must-win mode as they return to TD Banknorth Garden for Game 5 against the spunky Hawks.
Boston carried a 10-point lead into the fourth quarter Monday night, but resilient Atlanta outscored the Celts 32-17 in the final frame to post a 97-92 win as a nine-point home underdog. Joe Johnson went off for 20 of his 35 points in the fourth to help seal the upset, which followed a 102-93 home victory as an eight-point ‘dog in Game 3. Prior to the two wins, Atlanta was on an 0-5 SU and ATS skid, and the Hawks are still just 4-7 SU and ATS in their last 11 starts.
Boston, meanwhile, had its six-game SU and ATS winning streak halted with the two setbacks. However, the Celtics are still 5-2 against Atlanta this year (4-3 ATS), with all five wins coming by double digits, including 23- and 19-point blowouts in Games 1 and 2, respectively, both as a 15-point chalk.
The home team in this series is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, the underdog is 9-5 ATS in the last 14 clashes and Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five home starts against Atlanta.
Their current two-game winning streak notwithstanding, the Hawks are still on ATS slides of 1-4 on the road, 11-24 on the highway against teams with a winning home record, 3-7 after a SU win and 2-6 after a spread-cover. Also, the straight-up winner has cashed in each of the Hawks’ last 12 games overall.
The Celtics are still 13-3 SU (12-4 ATS) in their last 16 games going back to the regular season, and they carry further positive ATS trends of 21-7 overall, 8-0 overall at the Garden, 6-0 at home against teams with a losing road mark, 7-1 on one day of rest, 13-6 after a SU loss and 41-19-2 against teams with a losing overall record.
After the first two contests in this series in Boston stayed under the total, the over was the paly in both games in Atlanta– with Saturday’s contest narrowly clearing the 188-point posted price – and the over for Atlanta is now on runs of 8-0 on one day of rest, 10-3 after a SU win and 11-5 overall. On the flip side, the under for Boston is on streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-1 at home versus teams with a losing road record, 9-3 in first-round playoff games and 12-5 against the East. Finally, the four head-to-head meetings in Boston this year have all stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Milwaukee (15-11) at Chicago Cubs (16-10)
The Brewers send veteran right-hander Jeff Suppan (1-0, 3.48 ERA) to the hill at Wrigley Field against the Cubs and right-hander Ryan Dempster (3-0, 2.90) in the second game of a three-game series.
Milwaukee outslugged the Cubs 10-7 in Tuesday’s opener and has now alternated wins and losses in its last four games, though the Brewers are 4-1 in their last five on the road. Meanwhile, Chicago has followed a six-game winning streak by dropping four of its last five. The Cubs also had a five-game home winning streak snapped last night, but is still 9-2 in its last 11 at Wrigley.
These two teams opened the season against each other, with the Brew Crew taking two of three at Wrigley Field. Suppan notched one of those wins, allowing two runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings on April 2 as Milwaukee rolled 8-2. Dempster got the Cubs’ lone win in that series the following day, yielding two runs on three hits in six innings, prevailing 6-3. The Cubs won the season series last year 9-6, going 5-4 at home against Milwaukee.
Suppan has had solid outings in four of his five starts, but he’s only managed one decision – the victory over the Cubs on April 2. Most recently, he allowed just one run on five hits in seven innings on Thursday against Philadelphia, but couldn’t get any offensive or bullpen help in a 3-1 home loss.
Suppan is 6-5 with a 3.13 ERA in 17 starts against Chicago. Last year on the highway, he went just 3-9 with a 5.38 ERA, though he was 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two starts at Wrigley in 2007.
Along with his three wins this season, Dempster has a pair of no-decisions, including his last outing, in which he allowed three runs on four hits in seven innings as the Cubs came up short 5-3 Friday at Washington. He is 5-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 31 lifetime appearances (nine starts) against the Brewers. Before this season, Dempster hadn’t started a game since the 2005 season, as he served as the Cubs’ closer the past two years, notching 28 saves and a posting a 2-7 record in 66 relief appearances in 2007.
The Brewers are on streaks of 6-1 overall when Suppan starts, 7-0 when Suppan faces the N.L. Central, and 4-1 when he works on the road. On the downside, Milwaukee is 0-5 in Suppan’s last five road starts against a winning team and 4-12 in the team’s last 16 games on Wednesdays.
The Cubs are on runs of 15-7 overall, 7-2 at home against right-handed starters, 8-4 overall against righties and 23-8 against the N.L. Central. They’re also 4-0 in Dempster’s last four starts within the division.
For Milwaukee, the under is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 20-8-2 on the road against right-handed starters, 6-2 overall versus righties, 3-1 in Suppan’s last four starts overall and 5-1 in his last six outings against the Cubs. For Chicago, the over is 9-1 in its last 10 against the N.L. Central and 4-1-1 in Dempster’s last six division starts, but the under has cashed in four of the last five overall for Lou Piniella’s club.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Oakland (17-11) at L.A. Angels (17-11)
The Athletics will have left-hander Dana Eveland (3-1, 2.48) toeing the slab for the third game of a four-game road trip against the American League West rival Angels, who will hand the ball to red-hot Ervin Santana (4-0, 2.97).
After getting shellacked 14-2 in Monday’s series opener, the Angels came back Tuesday and rode Joe Saunders’ outstanding pitching performance to a 2-0 victory. Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses in its last five games, but is 5-2 in its last seven.
Oakland is still on an 8-3 tear, going 5-2 in its last seven, and the A’s have won each of their last three series.
This is the first series this season between these division rivals. Last year, Oakland narrowly edged the Angels 10-9, going 5-5 in Los Angeles. On the bright side for Los Angeles, it is 6-1 in Santana’s last seven starts against the A’s and 4-1 in his last five home outings against Oakland.
Eveland opened the season with two solid starts, notching a win and a no-decision while allowing a total of just one run in 13 1/3 innings. He then took a road loss at the Chicago White Sox in which he gave up four runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings – his shortest outing of the season. But he’s since bounced back with two straight wins, allowing a combined four runs on nine hits in 11 innings in wins over the Royals (7-1 at home) and Mariners (4-3 on the road).
The 24-year-old Eveland, who had just one start in five appearances for Arizona last season, is 5-5 with a 5.98 ERA in 46 career big-league appearances (11 starts).
In his last start, Santana gave up three runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings as Los Angeles edged Detroit 4-3 on the road Friday. The lone blemish on Santana’s record this year was a no-decision in a 4-3 home loss to Cleveland on April 8. Even in that outing, the right-hander allowed just two runs on six hits in six innings.
Santana has been stellar against Oakland in his career, going 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 10 games (nine starts). He’s also 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two home starts this season.
The Athletics are on hot streaks of 9-4 on the road, 7-0 on the road against right-handed starters, 7-2 against winning teams and 16-7 on Wednesdays. However, Oakland is just 4-10 in its last 14 matchups against the A.L. West.
The Angels are a sterling 27-10 in Santana’s last 37 home starts and are on further positive runs of 5-1 against left-handed starters, 6-2 inside the division, 6-2 with Santana going against a winning team and 19-7 when Santana battles the A.L. West.
Last night’s game easily stayed under the total, continuing strong under trends in this rivalry of 37-15-2 overall and 27-9 in Los Angeles, and the under is 8-1 in Santana’s nine career starts against the A’s (4-1 at home). The under is also 5-0 in Eveland’s five starts this season, 7-2-1 in Oakland’s last 10 versus the A.L. West and 6-2 in its last eight on the road. Finally, for L.A., the under is on streaks of 8-3-2 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 6-1 against right-handed starters and 4-0 when Santana works at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
Mike Rose
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Over 9.0
Middle reliever Nick Masset gets the spot start for Chicago this afternoon because Ozzie Guillen declined not to use Mark Buehrle or John Danks on three days rest after they played a doubleheader against the Orioles on Saturday. This will be the second start of his young career after making his first against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley field last season. Look for Masset to work no more than 75 to 80 pitches, and probably no more than five innings.
Opposing him will be the Twins Nick Blackburn who’ll be making his sixth start of the season. He comes into this start sporting a 1-1 mark with a 3.45 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He’s allowed 39 hits and 12 ER’s with an impressive K/BB ratio of 15/4 in a shade over 31 total innings pitched. He’s thrown better than his 1-1 mark, but he’s had trouble avoiding the big inning in two of his last three starts. He faced the White Sox earlier this month, but got tagged with a no decision after they roughed up his bullpen to pull out the 7-4 come from behind victory. He threw five innings of two-run ball striking out five while walking two, and could better those marks at home where he’s 1-1 with a miniscule 0.69 ERA in two starts this year.
The White Sox are a moneymaking 9-1 in day games this season, while the Twins have only brought home the cash in 3 of their 9 day games this season. The White Sox have played to the over in 7 of their 12 games against divisional opponents, and it’s 10-6 this year when they’ve squared off against a right-hander. The over is also 5-2 the L/7 times these clubs have squared off in the Metrodome.
Dave Cokin
Braves @ Nationals
Play: Braves -110
If the Tigers fail to make the playoffs, they may end up looking back at the deal they made with Atlanta as a primary reason. Nothing wrong with Edgar Renteria, but the Tigers can't pitch and they might well have been better off keeping Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens has been mighty impressive for the Braves throughout the early going. He's been rock solid in every one of his starts and is stamping himself as a star on the making. Shawn Hill has yet to find his groove coming back from spring injury issues for the Nats, so I'll look for Atlanta to win this game.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: L.A. Angels w/Santana
Note: The Halos send Ervin Santana to the mound in the 3rd of a 4-game series with the Athletics. Aside from being in sharp KW form with 18 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts, Santana owns strong numbers in this series, going 7-2 with a 1.20 ERA in his MLB career starts against Oakland, including 4-1 at home with a 1.23 ERA. Stay at home with Santana and the Angels here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: under
Reason: The under is 6-2-1 in the A's last 9 division games. The A's have played the under in all 5 of Evelands starts this season. The under is 4-1 in the A's last 5 road games where the total has been set between 9. - 10.5. The under is 6-1 in the Angels last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The under is 4-0 in Santana's last 4 home starts and 5-1-2 in his last 8 starts overall. The under is 26-9 in the A's last 35 trips to LA. Play the under.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Reason: At 8:05pm ET our member selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Texas Rangers. Kansas City Royals' righthander Brian Bannister has emerged as one of the top starters in the American League. For anyone who thought last year's 12-9 record and 3.87 ERA was a fluke, Bannister has proved them wrong by picking up where he left off and then some. So far all the 27 year-old has done is go 3-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. And like last season, Bannister is not doing this on one of the better squads in the league but rather on a team that is probably destined to have yet another losing campaign when all is said and done in October. The Texas Rangers are not a very good team when healthy, and they are definitely far from healthy right now. The latest key member of this team to go down with a serious injury is starting 3B Hank Blalock. No matter what he does, Blalock just can't seem to stay healthy for any length of time and his latest hamstring injury could have him on the shelf for a month or longer. The pitching staff is where most of the injuries lie right now with no less than seven hurlers either on the DL or out of action with a variety of physical problems. With the Royals win on Tuesday evening, KC have now won nine of the last fourteen games between these two. Take the Royals.
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers - 4.5 over Washington Wizards
Cleveland up 3-1 looks to knock Wizards out of the playoffs for the third consecutive season. Cavs have won both home games beating the Wizards 93-86 in game one and 116-86 in game two.
MLB
Arizona (Johnson) -145** over Houston (Chacon)
Johnson, 4-0 life vs. Houston, has allowed five runs in 17 innings posting 20 Ks over three starts this season. Arizona is 5-1 last six home meetings, winning the five games by a combined 40-15.
Atlanta (Jurrjens) -110** over Washington (Hill)
Washington's .231 team batting average ranks second last in MLB. Hill is 6-9 life including 0-2 versus the Braves. Jurrjens has won his last two starts allowing four runs on five hits over 13 innings.
Ross Benjamin
Pittsburgh (Gorzellany) @ Mets (Ol. Perez)
Pick: Over 8.5
All 6 games between these 2 clubs went over the total in 2007. The Pirates have gone over the total in 9 of their 12 on the road and 17 of their 25 games overall. The Pirates are #30 in MLB in team ERA and #30 in team fielding. Both starting pitchers enter this game in bad form off their last 3 starts. The Mets are hitting a robust .293 as a team versus left-handed pitching so far in 2008. The Pittsburgh starting pitcher Gorzellany has seen 10 of his last 12 starts as an underdog go over the total including all 8 as an underdog of 1.50 or less. Play on over the total as my free selection of the day.
GATOR REPORT
NBA 70% Super Situations (NBA Record 20-11 ATS +790 Units)
NBA (Playoffs 0-1 -110) Wednesday: Play On NBA favorites of 10 or more points revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite, with a winning record on the season, 40-15 ATS since 1996. PLAY: Boston Celtics -13.5
MLB 70% Super Situations (MLB Record 5-2 +290 units)
MLB Wednesday: Play Against MLB (NL) road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season, 105-43 (70.9%) since 1997 PLAY: Philadelphia -125
Jim Feist
San Diego plays its home games in a huge park, which is why their pitchers have overall strong numbers. However, one must carefully do a home/road breakdown of every Padre pitcher. Starter Chris Young was outstanding at home last season and weak on the road, and that's the case again with a 1.83 home ERA, but 8.00 on the road! Philadelphia is no easy park to pitch in, a home run friendly park. Philadelphia 45-year old junkball lefty Jamie Moyer knows this all too well, with a 2.25 ERA on the road but a 5.52 ERA at home. Look for both pitchers to take a beating.
Play the Padres/Phillies over the total
PlayByPlayInc.
NBA
ATLANTA at BOSTON Over 187.5
WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND Over 191
TONY WESTON
Were sticking with some Eastern Conference action as the Atlanta Hawks look to keep their momentum going in Boston against a Celtics team thats looking for an answer to Josh Smith.
Interestingly enough the Hawks had lost five straight games ATS and SU before taking two at home against the Celtics, winning outright in Games 3 and 4. After winning by an average of 17 points per game in the first two games, Boston has lost the last two by an average of seven.
Atlanta has all the confidence in the world going into Beantown tonight and will hang with the Celts.
The early number on this one has Atlanta installed as about a 14-point dog. Obviously thats subject to change, but still, take the points and take the Hawks on the road.
2* HAWKS
DCI
NHL
Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 4, best-of-7
Montreal vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Western Conference Semifinals
Game 4, best-of-7
DALLAS 3, San Jose 2
NBA
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game 5, best-of-7
CLEVELAND 99, Washington 94
BOSTON 102, Atlanta 88
Bobby Maxwell
Today we're going with the Tigers as they pay a visit to Yankee Stadium.
The Tigers seem to have the Yankees' number lately, having taken four of the last five meetings between the two dating back to last season, including Tuesday's 6-4 victory.
Jeremy Bonderman (1-2, 4.28 ERA) is on the mound for the Tigers against the Yankees' Andy Pettitte (3-2, 3.23). The Tigers have won three of Bonderman's last four outings as he allowed two earned runs or less in the three games. He gave up two runs on two hits in 4.2 innings of an 8-2 victory against the Rangers on Thursday.
Bonderman hasn't been at his best against the Yankees, but he has held them to four earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts, but the Tigers have lose seven of those 10.
Pettitte was smacked around a bit in his last outing, giving up five runs on eight hits in five innings as Cleveland on Friday during a 6-4 loss. He hasn't pitched at home since April 5 when he gave up five runs on eight hits in five innings of a 6-3 loss to the Devil Rays.
Detroit has won six of its last eight games overall while New York has lost four of six. The Tigers are 9-4 in Bonderman's last 13 road starts and 4-1 on the road against southpaws.
The Tigers have clawed their way back to respectability. So let's play them and the plus-money tonight as they have the bats to get to Pettitte and the Yankees.
4* DETROIT
CAPPERS ACCESS
Wizards
Reds
Cubs
Insider Sports Report
5* Houston (Chacon)/Arizona (Johnson) UNDER 9.5
Range 10 to 9
4* Pittsburgh (Gorzelanny)/N.Y. Mets (Perez) OVER 8.5
Range 8 to 9
3* Washington/Cleveland (NBA) UNDER 191.5
Range 193 to 189.5