Josh Dean
St. Louis +103
Wayne Root
Chairman - Celtics
Millionaire - Wizards
No Limit - A's
Perfect Play - Royals
Dr. Bob
Wednesday NBA Playoff Analysis
BOSTON (-14) over Atlanta
The Hawks bounced back from two beatings in Boston to win a couple of games in Atlanta, but they should continue to be overwhelmed on the road. Atlanta has struggled to stay competitive with good teams on the road, posting a mark of just 3-10 ATS as a road underdog of 9 points or more (1-3 ATS at Boston), and my ratings favor the Celtics by 15 ½ points in this game. I’ll lean with Boston at -14 points or less based on the line value.
Washington at CLEVELAND (-5)
Cleveland has control of this series after winning game 4 in D.C., but the Cavaliers have had a tendency to letdown after good efforts this season (13-26 ATS after a spread win, including 4-15 ATS recently) and Washington is 18-8 ATS in revenge games this season. However, LeBron James and the Cavaliers tend to raise their level of play in the post-season and the Cavs are now 24-13 ATS in the playoffs in the James era. My ratings favor Cleveland by 5 points, so there is no line value favoring either side, and I have no opinion on this game.
Young Guns
4' * Cavs
Indiancowboy
Celtics -14 (POD)
I believe the research that I wrote today on the website describes this game fairly well. Keep in mind that as you read this the Hawks are the worst road team in the Playoffs this year in the NBA 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games while the Celtics are 8-0 ATS when home being favored and I simply love them behind the Boston crowd fired up and ready to run the score up on the Hawks here:
Keep in mind that I hit the over twice between these 2 teams when the game is in Atlanta fitting into the underdog/over principle which I believe in avidly. However, do note that the under and Boston cashed both times in Boston while the over and the Hawks cashed while in Atlanta. Hence, favor/under and underdog/over is what has essentially occured here. Don't get me wrong, I love the Hawks, but at the same time, this is a very proud Celtics team that has clearly shown they can win at home, yes, the Hawks have momentum, but this Celtics team led by 10 heading into the 4th quarter and it is the Hotlanta crowd that propelled them a great deal in my opinion. Plus, it will be incredibly tough for Josh Smith and Joe Johnson to score all the Hawks points in the 4th quarter this time around as well as Boston and Doc Rivers will make defensive adjustments back at home. Look for this game to be a repeat of game 1 and 2 in my opinion as I like the fact that the public is taking both sides here at a 50/50 rate, as I think Boston has a chance to really lay the wood down here in game 5 and I would not be surprised to see a Hawks/over - but in game 6 as I think game 5 will likely belong to Boston decisively.
Cavs/Washington Over 192
Look, I have already written a book about the other plays as I write this write-up last. The bottom line is it is far too tempting to notice that nearly 80% are on the Cavs today. However, rather than take the Cavs that are Massive public favorites, I believe similar to the Hawks who were active dogs and showed heart as they covered and the game went over, I will gladly take the over here as I think Washington leaves it all out on the floor. Washington realizes that this is it for them and they are in the same boat as the Rockets. The Wizards were terrible in the first 2 ballgames putting up just 86 points a peice and I do not see that tonight as I see them possibly dropping a 100 on the Cavs defense tonight. Will it be enough for an outright win or cover? I'm not sure, but I do like the over here as I think the public is wrong about the Wizards not being an active dog and I expect this game to go over. The over is 22-10-1 in Cavaliers last 33 games as a favorite of less than 5 points and the over is 5-2 after a straight up loss of more than 10 points for the Wizards.
Marlins -102
Even after being down 6-1 the Marlins nearly came back to win yesterday as it took a late run by the Dodgers to win 7-6. Why is this important? It shows that here is incredible fight in this young team led by Hanley, Ugla and Cantu. This team is young, feisty and has plenty of heart and talent. Note that this team has not lost back to back games for roughly 2 weeks. Billingsley has struggled in the early going for the Dodgers as he has given up 9 runs in 11 innings and although he did strikeout 12 against the Dbacks, the fact that he has given up so many runs is a concner. Keep in mind the Marlins are putting up runs with comfort, Olsen has pitched 4 straight quality starts and has given up just 1 run in his last 21 innings of work and the Marlins typically do not lose back to back games this year, I look for the Marlins to actually do well here today as the Marlins are 2nd in the league in home runs and frankly I don't beleive they should be a dog here. Dodgers have lost Billingsley's last 4 starts while the Marlins have gotten solid backing from Olsen as they have won his last 6 starts. Olsen will continue to have a step-out year in my opinion as the Marlins have the better pithcer on the mound, are on a bounce-back and are backed by a great offense
Michael Cannon
15 Dime –
MARLINS (With Olsen as listed pitcher)
Take the Marlins for the home win tonight over the Dodgers.
Florida will start Scott Olsen and the left-hander is having a nice rebound season. He’s 3-0 with a 2.06 ERA after posting the highest ERA among any qualifying starting pitcher last year.
Olsen has been even better over his last three starts, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.42 ERA in 21 1-3 innings.
The Dodgers will counter with Chad Billingsley. After experiencing a successful jump to the starting rotation from the bullpen last year, the right-hander is struggling this year. Billingsley is 0-4 with a 6.53 ERA in six games. He’s getting hit hard despite posting 32 strikeouts in only 20 2-3 innings.
Florida is swinging the bats well right now, so they should be able to get through to Billingsley tonight.
Take the Marlins for the home win.
5 Dime –
CAVALIERS
Take the Cavs minus the points tonight over the Wizards.
Washington has certainly talked the talk this series, but eventually this team has to realize that they need to back it up on the court.
The Wizards have been knocked out of the playoffs the last two years by the Cavs and tonight will make it three in a row.
LeBron James has been brilliant this series despite the physical harassment he’s taken from the Wizards.
Cleveland’s the better team, they are the more mature team by far and will prove it tonight.
Take the Cavs minus the points as they dispatch the Wizards once again and cover the number in doing so.
YANKEES (With Bonderman and Pettitte as listed pitchers)
Take the Yankees for the home win tonight over the Tigers.
I know the Pinstripers are battling some injuries right now, but they’ve been getting solid production from their veteran pitchers and tonight that will continue with Andy Pettitte.
The left-hander is 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA on the year and has posted a solid 3.49 ERA in 22 career starts against Detroit.
The Tigers will counter with Jeremy Bonderman, who has struggled big time against the Yankees in his career. In nine games the right-hander is just 2-6 with a 5.58 ERA.
Take the Yankees as they grab the home win.
ROYALS (With Bannister as listed pitcher)
Take the Royals for the road win tonight over the Rangers.
Texas is a mess right now. From Ron Washington’s job status to their abysmal pitching staff.
Tonight they host a Royals team that has some real promise, especially in the starting rotation.
Kansas City will send Brian Bannister to the mound and he’s 3-2 on the year with a 2.48 ERA. His mound opponent, Kevin Millwood, hasn’t had any run support behind him in his six starts this year.
Millwood has only one win to show for the season despite a solid 3.32 ERA.
With Bannister going for the Royals, look for a bunch of zeros from the Rangers once again.
Take the Royals as they grab the road win.
GOLD SHEETS LTS
WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND UNDER 192
Duke's Sports
*Best Bet* Cleveland (-5) for 3 Units
Washington/Cleveland 6:00: Cleveland had 18 turnovers and shot just 41% from the field in Game 4 in Washington yet still managed to win because they dominated the boards (+21 margin). We'll look for the Cavaliers to close this one out in a series where the favorite is 7-3 ATS.
Atlanta Under (187') for 2 Units
Atlanta/Boston 8:30: This series has gone 1-6 O/U at Boston and we expect another lower scoring game. Boston is 4-8 O/U following an upset loss and should clamp down defensively on an Atlanta team that is offensively challenged on the road. Atlanta's last two visits to Boston resulted in offensive outputs of only 81 and 77 points, respectively. The Hawks are 2-8 O/U on the road when the 'total' is set in this range. We'll go "under" here.
MLB
San Diego Under (9') [Young/Moyer] for 2 Units
San Diego/Philadelphia 7:05: The Padres are one of the lowest run producing teams in the majors - averaging 3.26 runs per game on a .225 BA; moreover, they're batting just .177 since April 16th. We'll look for veteran Jamie Moyer to give Philly 6 quality innings here and let the respectable Phillies' bullpen close it out. On the other hand, SD's Chris Young last week showed a glimpse of magic that made him an All-Star by locking down SF to 1 run in 7 innings in a 1-0 loss. In two starts vs the Phillies, Young controls a 1.46 ERA. "Under" the call.
Kansas City (-105) [Bannister over Millwood] for 2 Units
Kansas City/Texas 8:05: Texas is on a 4-14 slide and just can't get it done. Tuesday, they left 12 men stranded on base. Tonight, we'll look for KC's Brian Bannister to go deep into this game; Bannister, who is 3-2 with a 2.48 ERA, has allowed just 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts; moreover, he went 7 scoreless innings last July vs Texas in a 6-1 win. We'll look for the sluggish bats of KC to do just enough damage against Kevin Millwood. Millwood has been inconsistent this year; moreover, the TX bullpen has not been dependable. And Jose Guillen sports a .391 BA vs Millwood. KC's won 3 of last 4 and we'll look for them to eke out a win here.
Kansas City Under (9') [Bannister/Millwood] for 1 Unit
Kansas City/Texas 8:05: We'll look for Bannister and Millwood to bring their best game to the mound tonight vs the sluggish lineups they'll face. This series is on a 2-5 O/U run. Texas is 9-22 O/U at home in this 'total' range; in the same 'total' range, KC is 1-5 O/U. KC is also 1-10 O/U following a win. Bannister is 1-4 O/U. And home-plate umpire - Guccione is noted to have a large strike zone going 0-4 O/U. "Under" the call.
PSYCHIC
NBA
2 units Boston -14
4 units Washington +5
MAJOR
MLB
1 unit Colorado +105
DA STICK
NHL
5 units Philadelphia -125
MLB
15 units Atlanta -110
MLB GAME OF THE MONTH
Jeffersonsports full card
NBA
Wash +5.5
Boston -14
MLB
KC -103
Flor +105
NY Yankees -123
Spritzer
ko..........................cavs
5* total dominator.................atl under87.5
Feist
total......................cavs over 92
platinum..................cavs
4*...........................atl
Cokin
nba playoff goy....................bos
3*....................................cavs
NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
Seattle @ Cleveland UNDER 8.5
SportsAction365
Toronto @ Boston OVER 9
GAMEDAY SPORTS NETWORK
Seattle @ Cleveland UNDER 8.5
Fat Jack
Washington +4 1/2
Ben Burns
NBA Washington Wizards +5.0 / 5 units
NBA Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics Under 187.5 / 4 units
MLB Los Angeles Angels -138 / 4 units
NHL Canadiens/Flyers Under 5.5 / 4 units
Fairway Jay
MLB Athletics/Angels Under 9 / 3 units
NBA Washington Wizards +5.0 / 3 units