GAMBLERS WORLD
TIP OF THE DAY
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Line: -125 Over/Under: 9.5 Reason: The San Francisco Giants and the Pittsburgh Pirates will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at PNC Park. Barry Zito will be the starting pitcher for the Giants on this day. Lefthander Zito is 0-6 this season with a 7.53 ERA. Zito's opponent in this one will be Phil Dumatrait. The Pirates lefthander has a 9.00 ERA to go along with a 0-0 record this season. Nate McLouth went 3-for-5 with two homers and three runs batted in as the Pirates slammed the Giants 12-6 on Tuesday night. Pittsburgh won as -120 home favorites as the game played over the 8-run total listed by sportsbooks. Adam LaRoche hit a two-run shot for the Pirates, while Zach Duke allowed three runs over 7 1-3 innings to get the win for Pittsburgh. Jose Castillo had a three-run dinger for San Francisco, as losing pitcher Jonathan Sanchez was rocked for seven runs over 4 1-3 innings for the Giants. Current streak: San Francisco has lost 2 straight games. Team records: San Francisco: 14-19 SU Pittsburgh: 13-19 SU San Francisco most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 5-5 Before playing Pittsburgh are 0-10 After playing Pittsburgh are 2-8 After a loss are 5-5 Pittsburgh most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 5-5 Before playing San Francisco are 7-3 After playing San Francisco are 6-4 After a win are 4-6 A few trends to consider: The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games San Francisco is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road San Francisco is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing San Francisco The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Nite Owl Sports
Game: Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic
Pick: 3 units : Detroit Pistons +3.5
With Magic being down 0-2 in series, this game 3 is a must win for them, so you just go with the team that needs the win the most right? Not necessarily, especially when that team has played as poorly at home as Orlando has TY against A teams like Detroit. In their 7 such home games TY after Jan 15, Orlando has shown very little "magic," going just 2-5 both SU and ATS in those 7, with an average MOL (margin of loss) of 4 points in those 7, and one of those two wins was over a crippled Boston team w/o their best player, Kevin Garnett. Their other win was against these Detroit Pistons, but only by 2, and Magic is favored by 3.5 here. Its also significant that in their other game between these two TY in Orlando, Pistons trashed the Magic by 24 points, shooting 59% overall and 47% from behind the arc. In their six games on the road vs A teams for the same sampling period (regular season, since Jan 15), Pistons have been up and down, with two good wins at Phoenix (by 30 !!) and at Denver, but bad losses (by 16 and 12) at Cleve and Boston. But when Detroit goes into an offensive funk on the road, it has been against good defensive teams like Celtics and Cavs, not against up tempo teams like Denver, Phoenix and Orlando.
Now lets look at how Pistons did LY in a similar situation to tonite (up 2-0 and playing on the road they were 2-1 SU and ATS, winning easily at Orlando and Chicago, and losing only at NBA East champ Cleve). Although Detroit is notorious for letting up and getting upset when they are not focused (like in games 1 and 3 of Philly series TY), we expect to see the same team tonite that blew out Sixers on the road in games 4 and 6 of that series.
We believe Detroit has a good chance to win this one SU, so we also recommend taking Pistons for two units on the money line, to win +3> units at the nice plus odds of +150 to 155 (in addition to taking them at +3.5 points) to do just that. When both of these picks win, you will be up over 6 units.
But as much as we like Detroit in this spot, we like the total in this game even better, but you will have to either buy that pick (for just $25) or our one day NBA pass (which will also include at least one pick on Laker-Jazz game) to get it. We are a scorching 14-2-1 for +27 units over the last four days, including 9-1 for +20 units in NBA and 6-0 for +13 units on our POD (Play of the Day) picks. You saw our write up above. You saw what we did with our free 5 unit pick on Boston over Atlanta in Sundays newsletter. So give us a shot and see what we can do for you. Now lets go out and kick some ass in these NBA playoffs.
Bryan Leonard
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
PICK: Cleveland Indians
Cliff Lee has been terrific thus far this season being unbeaten with an ERA under one. He should continue that success today against a Yankee team missing A Rod and Posada who remain out of the lineup with injuries. Those losses are really multiplied when facing left handed pitching. On the season at home the Yanks are hitting just .217 and scoring 3.28 runs per game against left-handed starters. And that included the two injured players. Now without right-handed Rodriquez and the switch hitting Posada the Yankee lineup is severley at a disadvantage vs southpaws, and no lefty in baseball has been as good as Lee.
The Indians also are expected to struggle vs Wang, but they have seen him enough in the past 12 months to get a pretty good handle on him. They crushed him twice in the playoffs last year and already faced him this season.
At a nice underdog price we will back the red hot Lee as Cleveland takes the first two games of this series.
PLAY CLEVELAND
Bob Akmens
Detroit Tigers +110
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –
These are two young pitchers headed in opposite directions so far.
The BOSTON RED SOX have LOST all 4 of Clay Buchholz’s road starts, and in every one of them he was favored to win.
The DETROIT TIGERS have won both of Armando Galarraga’s home starts.
And the Bosox are actually the favorite here, yet again!
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”
George Santayana
Go with DETROIT +110
Lenny Del Genio
15* Oakland A's
WUNDERDOG
Game: Chicago at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -1.5 runs +170
Edinson Volquez still is well under the radar. The numbers don't lie. The numbers make the case that he has been the best pitcher in baseball thus far in '08. The log is eye-opening. He has worked 35 innings, 24 hits, five runs, 42 K's. He has yet to allow more than five hits in all six of his starts, and has not allowed more than a single earned run in all six starts. Jon Lieber has not made a start all season, so his innings will be limited. As a division winner last year, the Phillies were 3-9 with him as a starter. Lots of good numbers for the Reds against Lieber, and we look for them to win comfortably at home.
Play By PlayInc.
UTAH at LA LAKERS Over 209.5
DETROIT at ORLANDO Over 186
2-Minute Warning
LA Lakers
Plus Line Sports
Atlanta / San Diego
Atlanta -1.5
MONEY LOCK OF THE DAY
JUNIOR'S PICK
SEATTLE MARINERS -150
DIGGER'S PICK
DODGERS -125
Yankee Capper
2 Units - Cardinals/Rockies Under 9
2 Units - Pistons/Magic Over 186½
MTi
4.5-Star Utah +6.5 over LA LAKERS
In game one of this series, the Jazz shot 37.9% from the field including 4-of-19 from the arc. Their starters were a combined 1-14 from three-point territory and, as a team, they missed eight free throws. The well-coached Utah Jazz is famous for their intensity and determination in this situation. They are a sparkling 10-0 ATS on the road when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss, covering by an average of 10.2 ppg - winning each of the last five straight up. In their last qualifying game, they beat the Hornets 77-66 in New Orleans on April 8th as a 5-point dog.
We also have a league-wide system that has been perfect since the 2003-04 playoffs. It reads, "the League is 11-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) as a road dog with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot at least 10 percentage points lower than their season-to-date average from the field and less than 85% from the line. The last qualifying team in this situation was these Utah Jazz, when they beat the Rockets 93-82 as a slight road dog in round 1 of this season's playoffs.
In game one, the Lakers played team defense and team offense. A whopping 24 of their 33 baskets were assisted, with Bryant leading the team with 7. This type of game seems to cause the Lakers, especially Kobe Bryant, to go from a Bryant-dominated offense to a egalitarian offense. This is not the way the Lakers' offense should be run and it causes problems. Indeed, the Lakers are 0-15 ATS with two or more days of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average, as long as they weren't laying 8+ points. LA is only 1-14 straight up in this situation, with their lone win over the Grizzlies. In their last two, both from this season, they lost by double digits.
Looking at the player-based trends we find that the Lakers are 0-4 ATS DURING THE PLAYOFFS at home after winning the previous matchup at home in which Kobe Bryant was the Lakers' high scorer.
As for the Jazz, they are 8-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) when seeking revenge for a road loss in which Carlos Boozer had more turnovers than assists and 6-0 ATS DURING THE PLAYOFFS with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Deron Williams was not the Jazz's high scorer, covering the spread by an average of 14.6 ppg.
Because the Lakers are undefeated in the playoffs and they looked so good in game one, the series price on this one is currently a big overlay. Currently, the Jazz are something like +475 to win this series. We think they will win tonight, and if they do, this price will drop precipitously. Remember, the Jazz were 37-4 at home during the regular season and if they win tonight, all they have to do is "hold serve" to win this series.
The Jazz are a focused, dedicated and quiet team, whereas the Lakers are in the news with Bryant's MVP award. Utah's play tonight will speak for them. Take the Jazz plus the points tonight and if you want to play them on the moneyline, +475 in the series is better than +265 tonight.
MTi's FORECAST: Utah 98 LA LAKERS 92
4-Star ORLANDO -3' over Detroit
One thing I think we can count on here is a less-than-urgent effort from the Pistons. So, all we have to worry about is the Magic. Will they be discouraged by their near miss in game two, or will they be inspired and buoyed by the home crowd. We expect the latter.
Detroit is a poor 0-12 ATS as a road dog with at most one day of rest when they have won and covered their last three games, as long as the total is less than 200 points. In addition, the Pistons are 0-5 ATS (-7.9 ppg) on the road after winning the previous matchup in which Tayshaun Prince had a double-double.
Turning our attention to the Magic, we find that they are a perfect 18-0 ATS with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Dwight Howard played more than 40 minutes - including 10-0 ATS last season. In addition, Orlando is 11-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) after a loss on the road in which Rashard Lewis played more than 40 minutes and 10-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) after a loss on the road in which Dwight Howard was the Magic's high scorer. We have still more. The Magic are 8-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) as a favorite when seeking revenge for a loss in which Maurice Evans took fewer than 10 shots and 8-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which Dwight Howard had at least 5 turnovers. If the Magic come to play, and all indications are that they will, they can beat the Pistons going away.
MTi's FORECAST: ORLANDO 98 Detroit 87
4-Star Utah at LA Lakers UNDER 209'
The Jazz can do something that the Nuggets can't - play tough team defense. We expect Utah to play a half-court, defensive game today, with their "bigs" focusing on defense rather than scoring. As evidence, Utah is 0-5 OU when seeking revenge for a road loss in which Mehmet Okur was the Jazz's high scorer, staying under by an average of a whopping 19.5 ppg. In addition, the Jazz are 0-5 OU as a dog after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Deron Williams was not the Jazz's high scorer, staying under by an average of 18.6 ppg.
That said, the major reason, for this play is a playoff-only player-based trend involving Kobe Bryant. In the playoffs, the Lakers are a perfect 0-7 OU since the 2003-04 NBA playoffs after two wins in which Kobe Bryant scored at least 30 points in each. In their lone active date this playoffs, they went under by 44 points in game 3 vs the Nuggets. In addition, LA is 0-7 OU after a win at home in which Derek Fisher had more assists than points.
With the Jazz a perfect 0-10 OU (-15.6 ppg) after a road loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent, there's only one way to take this total - UNDER.
MTi's FORECAST: UTAH 98 LA Lakers 92
Ben Burns
Mets/Dodgers under 4 units
PSYCHIC
NBA
3 units Orlando -3.5
5 units Utah +7
WISEGUY
MLB
1 unit Colorado -125
DA STICK
MLB
15 units Kansas City Royals -115
JeffMoney
A's Un 8, +105 (pod)
Blue Jays -140
Royals -120
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Braves Run Line
15 Dime - Lakers
15 Dime - Red Sox