Dave Malinsky 4* play
GAME: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Over
Not getting this one home last night has to rate as one of the more frustrating moments of our MLB season so far - the two teams had reached the Total of 10 with no one out in the top of the 6th inning, but there were 21 scoreless outs the rest of the way. But that enables us to come right back at the same price here, and with two vulnerable starters facing tough offenses with the Chase Field roof open once again, finding the 11th run becomes an easy task.
On the surface both Kyle Kendrick (5.01) and Micah Owings (4.66) sport ERA’s below the N.L. average. But when we dig beneath that surface we find that they are even worse than the uninspiring base numbers. First we have to deal with the impact of the schedule, which shows up in a significant way here. There have been 59 N.L. pitchers that have worked at least 30 innings so far this season, and Kendrick rates #55, and Owings #52, in terms of the quality of batters faced (as always, we use “On Base + Slugging” as our barometer). And then some particulars make them even more vulnerable.
Kendrick’s 5.01 does not show seven unearned runs that have already been scored against him in just 32.1 innings. He is a classic “pitch to contact” guy that does not miss bats (an ominous 3.82 Strikeouts-Per-9 so far in his career), and that means difficult matchups when facing a good offense, particularly on the road. This is a good offense. The Diamondbacks are 2nd in the N.L. in runs; 2nd in doubles; 1st in triples; and 4th in home runs. They will get good swings tonight, and Kendrick’s run of 12-2 to the Over in his last 14 starts can continue if his own offense holds up their end of the equation. We believe they will.
Micah Owings is showing a real bias problem through the early stages of his MLB career - he has allowed 20 home runs in 369 at-bats to left-handed hitters already, and this season they have rocked him to a .634 slugging average. That makes this a particularly difficult matchup for him, now that Shane Victorino is back to be setting the table for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard (and they can also load the lineup from that side with Geoff Jenkins and Greg Dobbs). But we do get the positive of Owings bringing his own lumber to the table - he is hitting .358 through his first 81 at-bats, with five home runs, eight doubles, and 18 rbi’s. The marketplace has a difficult time factoring that properly into these Total equations, and that helps to leave us with the outstanding value that this game brings.
Mr A's
Detroit Pistons +3½
Los Angeles Lakers - 6½
MLB
Washington Nationals (14-19) at Houston Astros (17-16)
The surging Houston Astros have won five straight and the last seven at Minute Maid Park. Houston will send their ace Roy Oswalt to the mound. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.46 ERA in his last four outings and went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in eight career games, including six starts against the Nationals. Washington has won six of their last eight games, but have struggle away from home, just 2-11 in its last 13 on the road. The Nationals counter with Odalis Perez The right-hander is 0-4 with a 12.91 ERA in six career appearances, including five starts against the Astros. Take Houston tonight at home.
Houston Astros - 170
Johnny Guild
Detroit Pistons (65-25) at Orlando Magic (56-33)
The Pistons have won 12 of the last 14 versus the Magic, going 10-3 ATS, but haven't been profitable underdogs. They are 0-5 both straight-up and against the spread in their last five as the dog. Go with the Magic, down two games for a vital win in Game 3 at home. Tonight’s battle could most likely be the only victory against the superior Pistons that have dominated Orlando. The home team in this series has covered the spread in the last 5 clashes.
Orlando Magic - 3.5
Bob Akmens
Los Angeles Dodgers -118 4 units
New York Mets/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 8.5 4 units
Jeffersonsports
NBA
Orlando -3.5
MLB
Texas+156
Toronto-135
Oakland-126
Oakland Under 8
Colorado Under 9
LARRY NESS DAYTIME DELIGHT
Dodgers 5 Units
Mike Rose
Mets/Dodgers under 8.5 3 units
LT Profits
LOS ANGELES DODGERS -115 2 units
Donald Tran
Boston Red Sox -110
Jennifer Barry
Toronto Blue Jays -130
Chad Jordan
LA Angels +110
Frank Patron
Arizona Diamondbacks -135
Bobby Bo
1*Orlando -3.5
Rocketman Sports
San Francisco @ Pittsburgh
Play On: 1* Pittsburgh -120
San Francisco is scoring only 3.3 runs per game overall, 2.9 runs per game on the road and 3.8 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Pittsburgh is scoring 5.8 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Pittsburgh bullpen has a 2.33 ERA at home this year. Pittsburgh is 10-3 overall vs San Francisco last 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!
Tom Freese
Texas at Seattle
Seattle starter Eric Bedard has allowed just 9 runs total in his 4 starts this year. The Mariners are 13-6 their last 19 games vs. righties and they are 14-6 their last 20 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. the Mariners are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. the Rangers. Texas is 9-23 their last 32 games as road dogs and they are 23-47 their last 70 games vs. lefties. PLAY ON SEATTLE w/Bedard
MATT RIVERS
For Wednesday take the Magic at home.
This is it for Dwight Howard and the Magic. If they lose they are done and they know it therefore the effort here back home in the Magic Kingsom is going to be outstanding. It's not like Orlando hasn't played toe to toe with Detroit because they have. The Big O really had a great shot to win game two after being in the game for the first half in the opener. The Magic also had some success in the regular season so this is not exactly a bad matchup at all.
The Pistons are obviously extremely experienced and talented and playing very well but this is the game where they can sit back and take a deep breath. Rip, Chauney, Tayshaun and Rasheed have taken a few plays off evey now and then when they are not too threatened too much (ie the 76ers) and I see that happening a bit here.
Stan Van Gundy is an underrated and very solid coach that was very upset after game two as the refs did not really do his team justice. In the very least the Magic deserved the cover. How they lost by a full seven points was a bit much considering they were pretty much right there until the bitter end.
A monstrous game here for the home boys and I do believe they pull it out so at this fairly cheap price I'm willing to lay a few to the Pistons
LARRY NESS
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
REASON FOR PICK: Not much was going right for the Rangers after losing the final seven games of a nine-game road trip which ended on April 24th and left them 7-16. However, the Rangers have won seven of their last 11, including a 10-1 win last night in Seattle. As for the Mariners, the loss was their SIXTH in their last seven and dropped them to 14-20 on the season, a year after going 88-74 (plus-$1,924), which made them MLB's second-biggest "money-makers' in 2007. Most of those profits came at home, where the Mariners were 49-32 (plus-$1,355). Seattle is just 8-8 (minus-$264) at home to open '08 and no wonder no one is showing up. Tuesday's attendance was 15,818, the smallest crowd in the stadium's 10-year history. I hope more people show up tonight because I expect a Seattle win. Vicente Padilla goes for the Rangers and while he's 4-2 with a 3.50 ERA in seven starts this year (Texas is 5-2), he's no match for Seattle's Erik Bedard. Bedard quickly established himself as a top-notch pitcher with a bad Baltimore team the last two seasons, going 15-11 with a 3.76 ERA in 2006 and then 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA in 2007. He allowed only 141 hits in 182 innings last year, with 221 strikeouts and just 57 walks. Consider this stat. The Orioles were 19-9 (.679) in games started by Bedard but just 50-84 (.373) with someone else on the mound. Talk about being a difference-maker! Bedard was shaky in his second start of the year for Seattle but after a stint on the DL, looks just fine. He's 2-1 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts this year and that includes him allowing just five hits and one ER in two home starts (11.1 innings), giving him an ERA of 0.79. He sure won't be nervous about facing the Rangers, as he's 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last four starts against Texas. What's more, Texas is just 1-6 against left-handers in '08, averaging only 3.0 RPG. The number is a little high but there's a reason for that. Take Seattle.
Ted Sevransky
Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Under
REASON FOR PICK: All signs point towards a low scoring ballgame at Kaufmann Stadium this evening. The Royals aren’t hitting: 22-10 to the Under overall, 11-3 to the Under at home. The reason for this run of Unders has been the anemic KC lineup, averaging just 2.6 runs per game at home. KC has put only three runs on the scoreboard in the first two games of this series, and things aren’t going to be any easier tonight against Jered Weaver. Weaver has dominated this weak Kansas City lineup, allowing a grand total of seven earned runs against them in his five previous starts against them.
But the Angels aren’t likely to blow up the scoreboard tonight either. Royals starter Zack Grienke is 11-2 to the Under in his last 13 starts. Grienke has been nothing short of outstanding in 2008, allowing only seven earned runs in his six previous starts. 43 innings of work and 44 baserunners allowed is exactly the type of ratio I look for when betting Unders. Both bullpens are rested and in solid current form. Even the series history here is all about Unders: 20-6 to the Under in the last 26 meetings between these two teams. Take the Under.
BEN BURNS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox
REASON FOR PICK: Fans of the Twins should enjoy today while they can. That's because Minnesota is currently all alone in first place in the Central and Twins' fans can (temporarily) claim to be the best in the division. However, a loss today will drop them into a first-place tie with Chicago and with a 4-game series with the defending World Champs on deck, it may be a long time before their fans make that claim again.
The Twins send Livan Hernandez to the mound and he won last time out. However, he got rocked (7 runs in 2 2/3 innings!) his previous start and still has a 6.89 ERA and 1.851 WHIP his last three starts.
Unlike Hernandez, Buehrle lost last time out. However, he pitched very well as he only allowed two runs (both were unearned!) through eight complete innings. It was the fourth time in five starts that the Chicago southpaw allowed two earned runs or less. Additionally, note that Buehrle has always dominated the Twins, going 7-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last eight starts against them and 20-10 with a 3.69 ERA in 31 starts and two relief appearances against them for his career. Look for Buehrle to continue his success against the Twins, as the Sox build off yesterday's victory and make things even tighter in the Central.