EZWINNERS EVENING
MLB
3 STAR PARLAY: (960) ATLANTA (-$160) and (978) CHICAGO WS (-$146)
(Listing Hudson and Buehrle only)
(Risking $300 to win $521)
2 STAR: (955) SAN FRANCISCO (+$124) over Pittsburgh
(Listing Zito and Dumatrait)
(Risking $200 to win $248)
2 STAR: (961) WASHINGTON (+$166) over Houston
(Listing Perez only)
(Risking $200 to win $332)
2 STAR: (965) PHILADELPHIA (+$123) over Arizona
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $246)
2 STAR: (969) TAMPA BAY (+$132) over Toronto
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $264)
2 STAR: (979) TEXAS (+$156) over Seattle
(Listing Padilla only)
(Risking $200 to win $312)
NBA
5 STAR: (713) UTAH (+7) over LA Lakers
(Risking $550 to win $500)
Brandon Lovell
30 Star MLB CLE - NYY OVER 8
Oscarxena Sports
Utah/LA Lakers Over 210 -1.08 (3 Unit Play)
The Lakers only attempted 73 shots in Game 1 but made 33 of them on their way to a 109-98 victory. The interesting thing about that game is that the Lakers really took the ball to the hoop as they only attempted 10 three point shots in the game. The Lakers got to the free throw line 46 times and converted on 38 of them while Utah got to the free throw line 30 times and converted 22 of them. The interesting thing about that is during the regular season in the two games played at Los Angeles the teams got to the free throw line 73 and 71 times so you have to figure that the trend will continue tonight. Utah attempted 95 shots last game but only converted on 36 of them and although I don't expect that number tonight I think their overall percentage will be better for this game. Utah is 14-5 to the Over in all games against Pacific Division opponents this year and the Lakers are 25-12 to the Over in the past three years when favored by 6 1/2 to 9 points so I look for a high scoring game here tonight.
Orlando -3 1/2 -1.10 (3 Unit Play)
The Pistons come in with a two game lead but they have had the benefit of some questionable officiating in my opinion in the first two games. It appeared to me that Orlando was manhandled inside last game but the calls were just not made and in the end the veteran Pistons pulled out the game. I think we are getting a little bit of line value here as I figured that Orlando would come 4 1/2 to 5 here but because the Pistons covered both games at home they made them a little less here. The bottom line here is that Orlando has played well at home and they need to break the Pistons win streak against them in the playoffs to prove to their home fans that they indeed can beat Detroit. As long as they emerge victorious tonight this series is not over but if they lose this game they might as well give it up as they won't come back from being down 0-3. The Pistons are not shooting the three ball very well so far in this series and I look for Orlando to rebound this evening with a big victory.
San Diego +1.51 (3 Unit Play)
Randy Wolf for the Padres has been one of their best stories of the year thus far as although the team has struggled Wolf has been pitching incredible. He has posted so far this year a 3.57 ERA in 35 1/3 innings pitched and he struck out 37 batters while walking only 11 and has recorded a 1.13 WHIP. Wolf's teams have went 6-4 in his last ten starts against the Braves and I look for him to continue his recent good pitching form against the Braves this evening. Our problem in this game will be the porous hitting of the Padres against Tim Hudson. Hudson has been even better than Wolf so far this year but this is a big number to lay for a team that may have to go to their bullpen in a close game late. The home plate umpire tonight is Brian Knight and although it is not a huge advantage he is 3-4 for the home team so I will take a shot on the Padres here tonight.
Rob Veno
Toronto -1.35 vs. Tampa Bay
Totally respect the young right arm of Rays Matt Garza but have to side with his mound counterpart Shawn Marcum in this contest. The underrated Marcum has been magnificent thus far this posting quality starts in five of his six trips to the hill. He's been extremely difficult for opponents to hit as he's allowed just 24 hits in 40 innings with righties batting .173 and lefties and even lower .159. Tampa Bay's somewhat impatient offense (2nd in AL with 234 strikeouts and only 9th in walks with 112), seems to be a solid fit here for Marcum who can dominate free swinging offenses. Bluejays bullpen in excellent shape for this one as both lefties Scott Downs and BJ Ryan (just cleared by doctors to pitch on back-back nights) are rested and ready as are four other memebers of the AL's statistically 2nd ranked relief corps. Expect the Jays offense to come up with enough support here as Toronto rides Marcum & the pen to victory. Recommendation: Toronto
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Pistons +4.5 over Magic
Detroit learned a valuable lesson from playing the Sixers and this defense smothers the Magic offense. If Orlando has trouble scoring they simply cannot win. Experience means everything in the playoffs. Detroit has it while the Magic do not. I think Orlando plays their best game of the series tonight, but if they do win it will be on a last second shot. This spread is too high to give a talented and experienced Pistons team.
Jazz +7 over Lakers
One thing that we all know is that teams just do not coast through the NBA Playoffs. The Lakers have coasted so far and have yet to play a close game. Tonight the Jazz will bring their best game and if it is close have the advantage because they had a couple ones with the Rockets in the last series. Utah is a complete team and played a lot better than Game ones box score would show. Look for a close game. Take the Jazz.
Major League Baseball
Padres/Braves Under 8.5 runs -110
Wolf/Hudson
Savannah Sports
2 Units on CWS -146
Sean Michaels
25 Dimes.....Braves -1.5
ROOT
Chairman- Royals
Millionaire- Jazz
Money Maker- Rockies
Insiders Circle- DBacks
Ferringo
1.5-Unit Play. Take New York Yankees (-130) over Cleveland 1-Unit Play.
Take New York Yankees (-1.5, +170) over Cleveland
This is simple: the Yankees are 28-8 in Chien-Ming Wang’s last 36 starts and 41-14 in his last 55 starts. Cliff Lee has been a great story in this early part of the season, but he’s going to get squeezed by Brian Gorman behind the plate tonight and is facing a Yankees lineup that’s shown a little life over the last week. Lee has a career ERA of nearly 7.00 in his three starts in Yankee Stadium. Cleveland, on the other hand, is not going to be able to muster enough offense to win this game. They stole one last night on an eighth-inning homer, but they are still just 6-20 in their last 26 games in the Bronx and I see the Yankees evening this series up.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-165) over Washington
1-Unit Play. Take Houston (-1.5, +130) over Washington
This one is straight forward enough: Roy Oswalt is 64-20 in his career at home and the Astros are 45-15 in his last 60 starts overall. Yes, they have lost seven of his last 10 starts, but I’m taking the long view and backing a pitcher that wins 75 percent of the time. Odalis Perez has an ERA of 12.91 in his career against Houston and is 0-4 against the ‘Stros. Washington has lost 11 of its last 13 road games, and with Perez facing one of the hottest lineups in baseball I think that spells trouble for the Nats.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (+120) over Oakland
Random trend in this game: the A’s are just 1-10 with Joe West behind the plate. More tangible and relevant trend: Oakland has lost eight of 10 of Joe Blanton’s home starts. I am still holding to my belief that the A’s won’t sweep this four-game set here, so we’ll continue to play the value with the Orioles.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-145) over Tampa Bay
Baseball is a funny game. How else can you explain Tampa's recent dominance of the Blue Jays? The Rays are 12-5 against Toronto dating back to last year and have won five straight. Yeah, I gotta think that's coming to an end. The Jays look like they have some confidence right now and they have started to hit the ball a little better - a little, not a ton, but enough - since moving Alex Rios to the leadoff spot. And here's a Betcha Didn't Know about Matt Garza: he is 1-10 in his career on turf.
1-Unit Play. Take #954 Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) over New York Mets
First, this is a play on Brad Penny at home. The Dodgers are 21-8 in his last 29 starts at home and 40-15 in his starts as a favorite. He's always been a lights out starter in the first half of the year, and with a team that's won 10 of 11 at his back he is the play. And he fits today's theme: bet on the pitcher that wins nearly 70 percent of his starts (Penny, Oswalt, Wang). I wanted to throw the White Sox in today's games as well, but I didn't out of respect for another system I use. Anway, the Mets are 4-12 on the road against a right-handed starter, are hitting .198 over the past week (compared to .320 for L.A.), and are 9-19 overall against a righty starter recently. The day game after a night game is going to hurt the Mets and their veteran players more than it will the Dodgers. And if the Mets fall behind early they may start thinking ahead to that plane ride home.
Today's totals:
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 San Diego at Atlanta
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Washington at Houston
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Tampa Bay at Toronto
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
GOLD SHEETS LTS
ORLANDO -3.5
BETTORSWORLD
GIANTS +127
MARLINS +100
CARDINALS +109
Ferrall
AL FREE B's
TIGERS +115 on ML over Boston--Galarraga gets it done vs Buchholz in Motown. Gallaraga has been unreal of late with a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 starts. Buchholz has been tough too. He's K's 21 over 3 starts. Detroit's bats are the difference tonight. TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 RUNS
Royals -115 on ML over Angles--Kansas City has Zach Greinke on the hill with his 1.47 ERA. He'll beat Jered Weaver in KC. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS
WHITE SOX -150 on ML over Twins--Buehrle is 20-10 career vs the Twins. He owns them ! Hernandez got roughed up in 2 of last 3 starts, allowing 12 earned runs. Take Chicago and the OVER 9 RUNS
NL FREE B's
Brewers -115 on ML over Marlins--Bush tops Badenhop. They have both been aweful so TAKE THE OVER 10 RUNS--they have huge ERA's and haven't looked good in any start.
BRAVES -170 on ML over Padres--Hudson is the man tonight for Atlanta and he'll beat Wolf and SD. Hudson's allowed only 5 earned in his last 3 starts. He allows no more than 3 runs per game. TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 RUNS
Nationals +150 on ML over Astros--Odalis Perez upsets Oswalt in Houston. Perez has no luck ! His ERA over last 3 outings is 1.89 with 18 K's,. although he's never beaten the Astros. Tonight he does it !
John Ryan
5* Pistons +4.5
3* Lakers ML -280
John Ryan
Game: Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Lakers ? AiS shows a 70% probability that the Lakers will win this game by 8 or more points. The potential hangover from the MVP announcement and reward is a bit of a concern to me. Yet, the same principles that supported Lakers in Game 1 will aply in this game as well. Lakers Gasol blanketed Boozer and made him largely ineffective in Game 1. Utah will obviously attempt to rotate the ball to the open man on the perimeter and Boozer will be looking for that pass as well when guarded tightly in the paint. Still, the physical presence of the Lakers defense in Game 1 is not going to be defeated by Utah any time soon. Lakers also will run at every opportunity. Utah does not do well in this type of game as they are 6-28 ATS (-24.8 Units) in road games when they allow 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Lakers are 43-12 ATS (+29.8 Units) when they score 105 or more points in a game this season. AiS shows a 90% probability that the Lakers will score 105 or more points in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 78-38 for a 67% ATS mark since 2002. Play on home teams after 3 or more consecutive wins and in a game involving two good teams sporting winning percentages between 60% to 75%. Take the Lakers.
Michael Cannon
20 Dime –
MAGIC
Take the Magic minus the points in Game 3 of their series with the Pistons.
I’ve got to believe the Magic are going to come out in desperation mode tonight. To be honest, they gave a great effort in Game 2 and Detroit was lucky to come out of that game with the win, let alone cover.
The Magic poured it on in the 3rd quarter of Monday’s loss, posting 36 points. They avoided turnovers and didn’t force any shots and it paid off with that impressive run.
They are more than capable of doing that tonight on their home court.
Never underestimate the importance of home court advantage in the playoffs. There’s a reason this line is set where it is. Come on, the Pistons have beaten the Magic nine straight times in the playoffs and Orlando is still listed as a 3 to 3 ½ point favorite.
That tells you something right there.
The straight-up winner is 19-1-1 ATS in Orlando’s last 20 games and 16-0 ATS in Detroit’s last 16.
The Magic are going to win this game, folks. Not only are they going to do it, they’re going to cover this spread comfortably.
Take Orlando minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
10 Dime –
LAKERS
Let’s back the Lakers again in Game 2 of their series with the Jazz.
To be honest the Lakers didn’t even play their best in Game 1, yet were still able to not only win, but do so by double-digits.
That’s a scary thought if you’re a Jazz fan.
Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol have clicked together since day one, and their chemistry is a huge reason the Lakers are heavy favorites to get to the NBA championship series.
Los Angeles is 5-0 SUATS through its first five postseason games and tonight should make it six-for-six.
The Lakers have also gone 4-1 SUATS against the Jazz this year, and have won all three games at Staples Center by double-digit margins.
The host is also 8-3 SU and ATS in the last 11 meetings in this rivalry, and the winner has cashed in each of those 11 battles.
The Lakers are too deep, too talented and their chemistry is second to none right now.
Lay the points with the Lakers as they grab the win and cover.
PIRATES
Take the Pirates for the home win tonight over the Giants.
The Bucs put a 12-spot on the scoreboard in last night’s win over the Giants and I’d be surprised if they didn’t approach that number again tonight.
That’s because Barry Zito is starting for San Francisco and this guy has completely lost it as a pitcher. The left-hander is 0-6 with a 7.53 ERA in six games this year. He’s allowed 41 hits and walked 15 batters in just 28 2-3 innings.
The Pirates do feature a couple of hitters, namely Nate McLouth, Jason Bay and Xavier Nady who can do some damage to Zito tonight.
They’ve also been successful against the Giants overall, winning 11 of the last 13 meetings with them.
The Giants have lost six of their last nine games overall.
Take the Pirates as they grab the home win.
Sports Lock
San Diego Padres (+145) vs. Atlanta Braves (-165)
The 12-21 San Diego Padres and their 6-12 road record will be looking to rebound from a 5-3 loss yesterday in Atlanta. Randy Wolf will take the mound with his 2-1 overall record and respectable 3.57 ERA. Batters are only batting .227 against Wolf for the season. On the Road this year Randy is 1-0 with a 3.93 ERA and hitters are averaging .250 against him. The 16-15 Atlanta Braves and their good 12-4 home record will be looking for win number 2 of the series tonight. Tim Hudson will get the start tonight with his 4-2 overall record and just a 2.95 ERA. Opposing batters are only hitting .238 against Hudson on the season. Tim Hudson at home this year has been unbeaten at 3-0 with a low 1.66 ERA. The San Diego Padres are the second lowest scoring team in the league at 3.4 runs per game and they also have the second worst hits stat in the league at 8.1 per game. The Braves on the other hand have the second best hits stat in the league at 10.1 per game and they also have the second stingiest defense in the league at 3.8 runs per game. Atlanta is the far superior team in this match up tonight and with Tim Hudson and his undefeated record on the mound we have to take Atlanta to win this ball game.
LOCK = Atlanta Braves -165