SPORTS ADVISORS
Atlanta (19-19) at Philadelphia (22-18)
Tom Glavine (0-1, 4.03 ERA) tries once again for his first victory of 2008 – and the 304th of his career – when he leads the Braves against the Phillies and Brett Myers (2-3, 5.33) in the middle game of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies snapped a modest two-game slide with Tuesday’s 5-4 victory, overcoming a 3-0 first-inning deficit. Charlie Manuel’s club has still been lacking consistency the last few weeks, going 8-7 in its last 15 games, but it is 6-2 in its last eight home contests and 6-1 in its last seven as a favorite. On the downside, Philadelphia is 2-4 in its last six divisional games and 1-6 in its last seven on Wednesdays.
Atlanta has followed up a season-best six-game winning streak by losing four of its last five. Bobby Cox’s club has one of the biggest home-road splits in the majors, going 14-4 at home, but 5-15 on the road. Also, the Braves are on further negative runs of 0-6 as a road underdog, 0-5 against the N.L. East and 1-4 on Wednesdays.
This is the first meeting of the season between these rivals, who split their 18-game season series last year. However, the Phillies are now 10-5 in the last 15 battles.
With Myers on the hill, the Phillies are 30-12 when he pitches on five days’ rest, but they’re 3-10 in his last 13 starts overall, 3-9 in his last 12 at home, 1-7 in his last eight as a favorite and 2-12 in his last 14 against the N.L. East. Meanwhile, going all the way back to Glavine’s first stint in Atlanta, the Braves are 8-1 when he pitches on Wednesdays, but 1-7 in his last eight starts overall (1-5 this season) and 0-5 in his last five on the highway (0-4 this season).
Glavine is coming off his longest outing of the season, as he went seven innings at Pittsburgh on Friday, giving up two runs on five hits and four walks. But it wasn’t enough, as the veteran southpaw got a no-decision in a 3-2 Braves loss. Glavine has a 2.79 ERA in four road starts, but his team has lost all four.
Glavine is 28-17 with a 3.68 ERA in 64 lifetime starts against Philadelphia, including 2-2 with a 4.06 ERA in seven games at Citizens Bank Park. Going back to the 2006 season, Glavine has tossed seven consecutive quality starts against the Phillies (at least six innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs allowed), and his ERA during this seven-game stretch is 2.64.
Myers got rocked in Arizona on Thursday, yielding seven runs (six earned) on nine hits and three walks in five innings of an 8-3 defeat. The Phillies are 0-3 in his last three efforts, and the righthander has registered a 6.75 ERA in his last four starts. Myers has also given up 12 home runs in 49 innings, allowing at least one big fly in each of his last seven trips to the bump.
Myers is 4-6 with a 4.16 ERA and four saves in 24 career appearances (17 starts) against the Braves. On the bright side, he’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four home starts in 2008.
The under is 5-1 in Glavine’s last six starts overall, 4-0 in his four road starts this season and 6-0-1 in his last seven against the Phillies. The under is also 4-2 in Myers’ last six outings against Atlanta, but 7-3 in his last 10 overall and 14-6 in his last 20 efforts on Wednesday.
For Atlanta, the under is on streaks of 37-16-2 overall, 19-5-1 on the road, 17-5 as an underdog and 18-4-1 on the road against right-handed starters. Conversely, the over is 5-3-1 in Philly’s last nine overall and 7-4 in its last 11 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
N.Y. Yankees (19-21) at Tampa Bay (23-16)
The red-hot and record-setting Rays go for their seventh consecutive win overall and their 12th straight win at home when they send ace James Shields (4-2, 3.14) to the mound opposite New York’s Mike Mussina (5-3, 4.36) at Tropicana Field
After pounding out a 7-1 victory in Monday’s series opener, Tampa Bay needed 11 innings to pull out a 2-1 win Tuesday. Not only have the Rays won six in a row overall and 11 straight at home, but they’re 15-5 in their last 20 and have climbed seven games over .500 for the first time in team history. The Rays have outscored their opponents 29-9 during their six-game winning streak, and they’re now 15-7 at home.
The Yanks have followed a three-game winning steak by going 2-5 in their last seven to fall back below .500. New York entered this series having won four straight against the Rays – all in Tampa – before losing the last two, so the season series is now tied 4-4.
Shields is coming off the best start of his career, as he pitched a complete-game, one-hitter against the Angels on Friday night, getting the 2-0 when rookie Evan Longoria hit a one-out, two-run walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth. Tampa Bay is 3-1 in Shields’ last four outings, with the righthander giving up two earned runs or fewer in all three victories. In fact, Shields has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 16 outings.
Shields has thrived at Tropicana Field this season, going 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA in four starts, with the Rays also prevailing in his one no-decision at home. The one negative for Shields: He’s been horrific against the Yankees in his career, going 0-5 with a 7.83 ERA in six starts, including a 2-0 road loss on April 6, when he gave up two runs on eight hits in five innings. That was easily Shields’ best outing against the Yankees in his career.
Mussina has seemingly turned back the clock over the last three weeks, going 4-0 with a 3.13 ERA in his last four starts, including a pair of road wins over the Indians (5-2) and White Sox (6-4). He’s 2-1 with a 4.08 ERA in three starts on foreign turf this season.
Mussina dominated the Rays in a 6-1 home win on April 7, giving up just the one run on two hits and one walk in six innings. He’s now 17-7 with a 3.44 ERA in 30 starts versus Tampa Bay, but only 7-5 with a 4.29 ERA at Tropicana Field. The Yanks have won seven of his last nine starts against the Rays.
The under is 6-2 in Mussina’s eight start this season, including 3-0 in the last three, but the over is 4-1 in his last five starts against the Rays (2-0 in Tampa Bay). Also, the over is 4-2 in Tampa’s last six overall.
The under is 6-1 in the last six meetings between these rivals overall (2-0 in this series), but the over remains 9-4-2 in the past 15 clashes at Tampa Bay. Other than that, the under is on runs of 10-1 for the Rays at home, 28-10-1 for the Yankees overall, 8-0 for the Yankees against right-handed starters, 7-1 for the Yankees on the road, 14-5 for the Yankees against A.L. East rivals and 42-18 for the Yankees on Wednesdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Cleveland (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) at (1) Boston (6-5, 5-6 ATS)
The Celtics, who dropped Games 3 and 4 in Cleveland and still haven’t won a road game in the playoffs, hope the friendlier confines of the TD Banknorth Garden are enough to help them regain control of this best-of-7 series against the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers.
Cleveland tied the series with Monday’s 88-77 victory in Game 4, easily cashing as a two-point chalk. The Cavs kept Boston at bay in a tight game for three quarters, then allowed just 12 fourth-quarter points to pull away for the win. LeBron James’ double-double of 21 points and 13 assists paced the Cavs, who held the Celtics’ Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to a total of 43 points on 16-for-40 shootings.
Cleveland, which pounded Boston 108-84 laying two points in Game 3, is 3-1 ATS in this playoff series and 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Boston, meanwhile, is on a 4-6 ATS slide (all in the playoffs), after winning and cashing in six straight between the end of the regular season and its first two playoff games against Atlanta.
The season series between these two teams is tied at 4, but the Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS. The home team is on a 9-0 SU run (8-0 this season) but is just 5-4 ATS in that span. Also, despite the fact the favorite has won and cashed in the last three meetings, the underdog is still on a 7-3-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
In the second round of this year’s playoffs, the home team is an eye-popping 17-1 SU and 14-3-1 ATS.
The Cavaliers are a lengthy 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning home record and have additional positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 against the Atlantic Division, 4-1 in conference semifinal games and 4-1 on one day of rest. But Cleveland is just 6-17 ATS in its last 23 following a spread-cover and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 after a double-digit SU win.
Doc Rivers’ Celtics are 1-4 ATS against winning teams and 1-6 ATS in conference semifinal contests, but despite struggling in Cleveland, Boston still owns positive ATS trends of 24-11 overall, 14-3 at home, 9-1 at home versus teams with a losing road mark, 7-1 on Wednesday, 11-5 against the Central Division and 15-7 after a SU loss. Finally, the Celtics are 6-0 at home in this postseason (5-1 ATS), winning by an average of 20.2 points per game.
Three of the four games in this playoff series have stayed low, and the under has cashed in four of the last five meetings going back to the regular season, with Monday’s clash falling far short of the 181-point posted price. For Cleveland, the under is on streaks of 12-4 overall, 7-1 against the Atlantic Division, 12-4 on one day of rest and 13-2 in conference semifinal games. The under for Boston is on runs of 16-8 against the East, 8-4 in conference semis, 17-6 against the Central Division, 5-1 at home (all in the playoffs) and 4-1 on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Utah (6-4, 4-5 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (6-2, 6-1-1 ATS)
The Jazz dealt the Lakers their first two losses of the 2008 playoffs in Games 3 and 4, sending this best-of-7 series back to Staples Center tied up at two apiece heading into tonight’s Game 5.
Utah blew a 12-point lead in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter Sunday, allowing L.A. to force overtime, but the Jazz bounced back to take a 123-115 win and cash as a one-point pup. Point guard Deron Williams (29 points, 14 assists) paced Utah, which is still just 2-5-1 ATS (4-4 SU) in its last eight games. Meanwhile, the Lakers, who got 33 points from Kobe Bryant despite him playing with a clearly ailing back, have followed up a 10-game SU winning streak (9-0-1 ATS) with the back-to-back defeats in Salt Lake City.
Los Angeles is 5-3 SU (5-2-1 ATS) against Utah this season, including 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests. The home team is on a 6-1-1 ATS spree in this rivalry and is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 battles overall, with the winning team cashing all but one of those 14 games, the exception being in Game 3, which landed right on the number.
The Jazz are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 starts against winning teams and 7-3 ATS in their alst 10 after a spread-cover, but they are in pointspread funks of 0-5 as a playoff ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 3-7 as a playoff pup of any price and 8-18 on two days’ rest.
Despite dropping both games in Salt Lake City, the Lakers still carry nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 6-0 at home, 5-0 as a chalk of five to 10½ points, 7-1 as a favorite of any price, 8-1-1 against the West, 6-1-1 in conference semifinal games, 6-1-1 against the Northwest Division (all in the playoffs), 8-1-1 against the Western Conference and 9-3 on two days’ rest.
Sunday’s game cleared the 210½-point posted total even before overtime hit, making the over 12-6 in the last 18 meetings in this rivalry. For Los Angeles, the over is on tears of 10-2 after a SU loss, 21-7 giving five to 10½ points at home and 37-16 with the Lakers as a chalk of five to 10½ points. However, the under is 5-2 in L.A.’s last seven overall, 7-3 in its last 10 on Wednesdays and 7-1 in its last eight on two days’ rest.
For Utah, the over is on runs of 22-8 against the Pacific Division, 8-2 as a playoff pup of five to 10½ points, 9-4 against winning teams and 5-2 on two days’ rest, but the under is 7-3 in the Jazz’s last 10 overall and 4-1 in their last five as a road ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Alex Smart
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Under 8.5
James Shields the Tampa Bay Devils Rays , starting hurler against the Yankees tonight is in great current form, and off a one hit shut out against the Angels in his last start . The Rays right hander has been particularly strong at home this season, allowing no runs in his last 18 innings of work here in Tropicana Field , giving up just 3 hits in the process. Red hot veteran thrower Mike Mussina returns fire for the NY Yankees. The zoo crew pitcher is in great form , winning 4 straight starts, while allowing just 8 earned runs during that span. Considering how well these guys are throwing the ball , it will be an easy decision to back this contest to stay under the total. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 8-0 in Yankees last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or more. Under is 8-1 in Rays last 9 home games. Yankees have gone under in 20 of 29 against right-handed starters like Shields this season Play under
John Ryan
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 63-39 and has made 37 units since 2002. Play against any NL team with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. Atlanta is 4-11 (-8.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season; 3-10 (-8.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Brett Myers is 37-16 (+18.7 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Jimmy Rollins is batting 373 and will lead the Phils in an offensive attack. Take Philadelphia
Dave Cokin
Nationals @ Mets
Play: Mets
Claudio Vargas is back in the bigs after toiling in New Orleans to start the season. The veteran righthander makes his debut for the Mets after a bit of a roster shakeup that took place Tuesday. Vargas is extremely erratic, has lousy control and goves up loads of hits. But he also manages to win more games than he loses. It's rare that a pitcher who's 23-16 over the last two seasons gets sent to the minors, and I have to think Vargas will be highly charged for his return to the show. The Nationals have gotten some good mileage out of Tim Redding this year, but I like the home team's chances here. The Mets are the choice.
Nelly
Minnesota (Bonser) + over Toronto (Halladay)
Roy Halladay is considered to be one of the top pitchers in baseball but the Blue Jays have lost four of his last five starts. Halladay has good overall numbers but he has not been delivering wins for the Jays and he is yet to have a truly dominant performance this season. Toronto is just 3-10 in the last 13 road games and the Jays are just 8-13 away from home on the season. Scoring runs has been the biggest problem for the Blue Jays, averaging less than 2.7 runs per game in the last 25 contests. Toronto is actually averaging just 2.1 runs per game in the last 13 road games. Minnesota has won ten of the past eleven home games and Boof Bonser has been a consistent starter for the Twins. Minnesota has won his last three starts and he allows very few walks or home runs with solid strikeout numbers. Minnesota is hitting .287 in the last ten games and despite weak power numbers the Twins are posting 6.3 runs per game in the last ten outings. Look for Minnesota to deliver another win at home, catching solid value against Halladay and the struggling Blue Jays.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Toronto Blue Jays w/Halladay
Note: The Blue Jays send the horse, Roy Halladay, to the hill in Minnesota in the 2nd of this 3-games series knowing he is 7-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his eight career team starts against the Twins. He's also cashed in 13 of his last 17 team starts in the month of May. With Halladay off a loss and in great KW form with 19 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three starts, we'll ride the horse here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Reason: Braves struggling on the road this season where they are 5-15. Atlanta is 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. Glavine's on the mound tonight and Atlanta has lost 5 of his 6 starts this season. Philadelphia has won 6 of their last 8 home games. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Philadelphia's 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Play on the Phillies - .
Las Vegas Sports Pics
Philadelphia - 125* over Atlanta (action)
Atlanta is an MLB worst 5-14 on the road. Philadelphia is 10-3 in 13 Kendrick career home starts including 1-0 versus Atlanta. Phillies are 8-4 last 12 meetings.
Houston (Backe) + 110* over (at) San Francisco (Cain)
San Francisco is 2-6 last eight games and 7-14 last 21 Cain home starts. Houston is 9-1 last ten games including 4-0 on the current West coast road trip.
Big Al McMordie
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
Play:Houston Astros
At 10:15pm ET our complimentary selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Francisco Giants. You may be surprised to find out that Brian Moehler is alive and well and still has a spot on a Major League roster. You will probably be even more surprised to know that the 36 year old journeyman righthander is not just on the Houston roster, but now has a spot in their rotation. After 42 relief appearances for this team in 2007, which saw Moehler win only one game, but log a very respectable ERA of 4.07, Moehler is back where he has spent most of his professional baseball career - as a starter. And he has earned the right - at least for now - to stay there. It doesn't hurt his cause that Wandy Rodgriguez still has a troublesome groin and continues to spend time on the DL. Nor does it hurt Moehler's cause that the other options for the back end of the Astros rotation right now are Chris Sampson and Brandon Backe, the better of whom has two wins and a 4.64 ERA. Moehler's only start this season was a good one - a five inning shutout against the Dodgers - and it was his first start since September 2006 when he was a member of the Marlins. Tonight looks like another great opportunity for Moehler as he goes against one of the worst teams in the league and a young lefthander in Patrick Misch who has never won a Major League game in his career which spans six starts going back to last August and with his team batting almost .300 against lefties. Take the Astros.
Ross Benjamin
Game:Boston (Lester) @ Baltimore (Cabrera)
Pick:Boston -120
In 2 starts versus the Orioles in 2007 Lester posted a very good 1.38 ERA with both resulting in Red Sox victories. Lester is 2-0 in his team, starts during the day this season with a microscopic 0.71 ERA. The southpaw enters the game in good form off of his last 3 starts posting an excellent 1.86 ERA. He also enters the game with team start streaks of 9-2 in the last 11 as a favorite, 17-4 in the last 21 versus a team with a win percentage of less than .500, and 8-1 in the last 9 on 4 days of rest. That is not good news for the Orioles who are 1-10 in the last 11 at home versus a left-handed starting pitcher. The Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera is 1-8 since 2005 in his team starts versus the Red Sox while posting a lofty 6.65 ERA in the process. Play on the Boston Red Sox as my free selection of the day.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASES FOR WED
TORONTO-127
DETROIT-130
ARIZONA-149
HOUSTON-112
CUBS/PADRES UNDER 7.5 or higher. If 7 then no play
Jim Feist
UTH Jazz and LA Lakers
Take Under
The Lakers are one of the Top 6 teams in the NBA defensively, allowing 46% shooting by opponents. The under went 2-1 the first three games, while Game 4 went OT. The Lakers should bring their 'A' game defensively with so much at stake in a Game 5. Also, Kobe Bryant has back trouble and is probable to play, but might be limited, their best offensive player. Utah average 102 ppg on the road, 6 fewer points than at home. Play the Jazz/Lakers under the total!
Cappers Access
Celtics
Jazz
Texas
BETTORSWORLD
MARLINS +130
A'S +145
ROYALS +120
EZWINNERS DAY MLB
2 STAR: (917) SEATTLE (+$110) over Texas
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $220)
2 STAR: (919) BOSTON (-$115) over Baltimore
(Listing Lester only)
(Risking $230 to win $200)