Matt Rivers
Whether Kobe is truly injured is not even the question here for me as I think he is not that bad or else the number to this game would not have been released so early or at such a high price. The guy is obviously not 100% and whether that means 90% or 75% is enough for me to go against him. It's not like his injury has lowered this line at all as it is still extremely high as the oddsmakers still expect a burial for the home Lakers. Phil Jackson's squad could definitely win this thing going away because they are stout with Bryant, Gasol, Fisher and others but they did just lose the last two games and let's not belittle the talent the Jazz display. Boozer and Williams are stars and Jerry Sloan's squad overall is no-joke when you throw in Harpring, Okur, Kirilenko, Millsap and others. Sure they have not been nearly the same team away from Salt Lake City but all teams have shown a little bit of an inability on the highway vs. at home. I would be a little surprised if the Jazz were to shock the world and take the very stunning 3-2 series lead but to get this number back with a Utah team that has a great upside against a bit of a banged up Laker squad seems to be the right side to me.
UTAH JAZZ
LT Profits
Florida Marlins +125
The Florida Marlins have been cooled off by the Cincinnati Reds so far, losing the first two games of this four-game series, but we look for Florida to get back in the win column tonight.
Ricky Nolasco is generally regarded as a weak link in the Florida rotation, but he has allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts. Granted, he went six innings in two of those outings and just five innings in the other, but we would actually take a repeat of those efforts here, as we have great confidence in a Marlins bullpen that ranks fourth in the Major League with a collective 3.17 ERA. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati pen ranks 25th at 4.34, making the Fish a Bullpen System play here.
Bronson Arroyo has been a real mystery for the Reds, as he is simply too talented to have a 7.14 ERA and a horrendous 1.71 WHIP after eight starts. Still, whatever the reason, Arroyo just can’t get going and he was not sharp the last time he faced the Marlins, allowing four earned runs and 12 baserunners in six innings. Furthermore, the bullpen cannot be counted on for relief at this point either.
Florida had won seven straight games entering this series, and we look for them to start a new streak tonight.
Pick: Marlins +125
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Under 176.5
The first two games between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers in this building produced just 148 and 162 points respectively, and we look for another snooze-fest as this series once again returns to Boston.
It is no secret that the Celtics have been like night and day home and away in the playoffs, and it all begin with their defense. Boston is allowing just 75.5 points per game in six home playoffs games, as opposed to a whopping 99.6 points per game in five road games! As a result, their home playoff contests are averaging a combined 171.2 points, and you could probably shave a few points off of that already low total here given Cleveland methodical style.
The Cavaliers are on a 12-4 Under run of their own stretching back to the regular season. LeBron James did actually get some support from Cleveland’s role players in Game 4 Monday, but even with that, the Cavs managed just 88 points at home vs. a determined Boston defense. We now all know that the Celtics are more intense defensively at home, and after watching the Cavaliers score 72 and 73 points in the first two games here, we have no reason to believe that they could top 75 here.
Thus, look for an identical pace as the first two games of this series.
Pick: Cavaliers, Celtics Under 176.5
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Houston Astros -119
With as confident as the Astros have been playing, I can't see them going down to the Giants again tonight. The Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite and 9-2 in their last 11 overall. The Astros are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-0 in Moehler's last 4 starts. The Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog, 0-6 in Misch's last 6 starts, and 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. We'll bet the Astros on the road tonight.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Phillies -139
The Phillies have dominated the Braves recently, winning 9 of the last 13 matchups and I like the Phillies again tonight against a Braves team which is yet to get things figured out on the road. The Braves are 7-19 in their last 26 road games, 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog, and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. National League East. The Braves are also 0-5 in Glavine's last 5 road starts. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Phillies are also 30-12 in Myers' last 42 starts with 5 days of rest. A well rested Myers means trouble for the Braves tonight. Take the Phillies.
Ferrall
AL FREE B's FOR WED
CLEVELAND -155 on ML over Oakland--The Indians starters haven't allowed a run in 34 innings. That's sick ! CC Sabathia looked great vs Toronto in his last start. He allowed only 1 earned run and striking out 9 in seven innings. He'll beat Blanton tonight. The Tribe have won four of five and have three shoutouts in those.
ROYALS +110 on ML over Tigers--Verlander got smoked by the Royals the last time he faced them, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings. He's lost three straight starts twice this year. His ERA is huge and his record is even worse at 1-6. He's lost all three road starts this year
Toronto -125 on ML over Twins--Halladay has never lost to Minnesota in his career. He's 6-0 in 10 career starts vs the Twins. Jays are looking for their third straight win. Boof Bonser goes for Minney and he stinks !
NL FREE B's FOR WED
BREWERS -105 on ML over Dodgers--Milwaukee goes for their fourth staright win and the Dodgers are facing a 6ht consecutive loss. Furcal is now on the DL with a bad back and the LA offense has sunk. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew have scored at least five runs in three straight. TAKE THE UNDER 9 RUNS. LA isn't scoring lately.
Astros -120 on ML over Giants--Houston stumbled Tuesday, but they'll get back on track tonight. The Stros opened May with 9 wins in 10. They hit .306 in that stretch. SF has won 15 of 20 vs Houston in SF since 2002. Pat Misch has never won a start in 22 games as a starter for SF. Talk about the "No luck kid"
San Diego +105 on ML over Chicago--The Padres have Jake Peavy going tonight at Wrigley and the they've won 3 of 4. They snapped the Cubs four game win streak Tuesday night. Peavy hasn't gotten a decision in five starts, but is among the league leaders in ERA(2.47) and strikeouts(52). He'll beat Ted Lilly, who's gonoe 3-1 in his last 4 starts. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS
Dave Malinsky
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Under
Last night we saw some average pitchers making good pitches at Wrigley Field, with a heavy wind out to left not becoming a major factor in the game at all. Tonight we will see very good pitchers making even better pitches, and with the temperature down and the wind direction changing (blowing in), we have excellent value here in a game in which each team is hard-pressed to score.
There are few challenges more daunting than facing Jake Peavy under tonight’s conditions - he can throw the ball right through bats (52 strikeouts vs. only 41 hits allowed so far this season). But while he is a prominent part of this equation in the eyes of the betting markets, it is Ted Lilly’s misleading 3-4/5.24 that leaves those 8’s out there. Lilly got off to a bad start this season, the kind that can weigh heavily on overall statistics until the middle of the summer. But take a look at the last four starts - a 3-1/2.08 in which he struck out 25 batters, while allowing only 17 hits. That stretch included solid wins form this mound in which he held the Mets and Diamondbacks to just two runs on seven hits over 13 innings, while striking out 14, and now he is stepping way down in class against a feeble San Diego offense that rates last in the N.L. in runs scored, batting average and doubles; is tied for 12th in home runs; and is 14th in stolen bases. And the Padres are particularly anemic against left-handers, hitting just .209 so far.
Peavy and Lilly are not the whole story - both bullpens bring their key arms without any trace of fatigue ratings. That makes the runs hard to come by the entire evening in this one.
Tony Karpinski
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers
Utah at LA Lakers (NBA Playoff Action) 10:35pm ET UTAH is 2-15 ATS in road games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. LA LAKERS are 24-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. LA LAKERS are also 13-3 ATS versus good foul drawing teams - attempting less than 27 free throws/game -during the 2nd half of the season and later. Look for Kobe to be well rested and the home team to dominate in this battle. Pick on the LA LAKERS
Larry Ness' 20* 2nd Round Total of the Year (current 13-2-1 NBA run / 5-1 with 20*s in playoffs)
CLE/BOS Over
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Cavaliers/Celtics Over 176
2 Units - Atlanta Braves
WUNDERDOG
Utah at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Game Total OVER 213
The Lakers have showed the ability to score inside and out in the playoffs, especially at home. It has equated to an uncharacteristic 120 points per game at home in the playoffs! It isn't just a playoff thing for this Lakers team however. They have topped the century mark at home in 18 of their last 19 games. These last 19 games at home has shown the Lakers averaging 114 ppg, and they have cranked it up a notch in the playoffs. Utah is certainly not immune to scoring on the road vs the Lakers. They have played four games here this season, having posted 109+ in three of the four. This one should be played at a fast pace, and both teams over the century mark, and should have little difficulty topping this total.
Larry Ness' 20* 2nd Round Total of the Year (current 13-2-1 NBA run / 5-1 with 20*s in playoffs)
CLE/BOS Over
Thanks samors I made it a little easier to read 😉
Larry Ness
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
REASON FOR PICK: The Blue Jays have averaged just 3.73 RPG in 2008 and no pitcher on the staff has felt the 'pinch' more than the team's former Cy Young award winner, Roy Halladay (won it in 2003). Halladay has a typically solid 3.29 ERA in his eight starts this year but he's just 3-5, as Toronto has managed to back him with an average of only 3.14 runs of support in those eight outings. Believe it or not, Halladay already been on the losing side of three complete-game efforts! In comparison, Minnesota's Boof Bonser has seen the Twins win each of his last two starts, despite the fact he's lasted just 10 innings in those two outings, while allowing 15 hits and 11 ERs (that figures to a 9.90 ERA!). Bonser is 2-4 on the year in his eight starts (team is 4-4), posting a 5.09 ERA. That pretty much mirrors the last two seasons, as he's gone 15-18 with a 4.77 ERA in 48 starts, with the Twins going 24-24. He's only faced the Blue Jays twice in his career, losing both times while posting a 6.17 ERA. On the other hand, Halladay has dominated the Twins, going 6-0 with a 2.66 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts), with the Blue Jays winning seven of his eight starts vs Minnesota. The Blue Jays beat the Twins last night in the Metrodome (5-3) and why shouldn't they "do it again" with Halladay on the mound? I'll take Toronto.
Gator Report
NBA 70% Super Situations (NBA Record 20-11 ATS +790 Units)
NBA (Playoffs 1-2 -0.20) Wednesday: Play Under NBA home teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points a team with an average >=+7 PPG differential against a team with a +/- 3 PPG differential on the season. 33-10 Under since 1996 (76.7%) PLAY: Cleveland / Boston UNDER 176.5
MLB Wednesday
Play Under MLB (NL) teams where the total is 10 or higher with a team that has a batting average = .255 to .269 against a starting pitcher whose ERA=4.20 to 5.20, with the game played during the month of May. 39-12 Under since 1997 (76.5%) PLAY:Colorado / Arizona UNDER 10 (-115)
Gavazzi Hoops + Baseball
3% Cleveland Cavs
3% Utah Jazz
2% Florida Marlins
GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
Current Line: -8 Over/Under: 214 Reason: The fans at STAPLES Center will be treated to a playoff game between the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers when they take their seats on Wednesday. Oddsmakers currently have the Lakers listed as 8-point favorites versus the Jazz, while the game's total is sitting at 214. The Jazz defeated the Lakers 123-115 in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog in Game 4 on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (211). Deron Williams scored 29 points and handed out 14 assists for Utah, while Mehmet Okur added 18 points and 11 rebounds in the win. Kobe Bryant scored a game-high 33 points to go along with eight rebounds and 10 assists for the Lakers, while Lamar Odom had 26 points and 13 rebounds. Team records: Utah: 54-28 SU, 46-36 ATS Los Angeles: 57-25 SU, 47-34-1 ATS Utah most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 7-3 Before playing LA Lakers are 8-2 After playing LA Lakers are 7-3 After a win are 5-5 Los Angeles most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 5-5 Before playing Utah are 8-2 After playing Utah are 4-6 After a loss are 7-3 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers Utah is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games The total has gone OVER in 12 of Utah's last 18 games when playing LA Lakers LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home LA Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games at home LA Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Utah LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Utah