SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(3) San Antonio (8-4, 6-5-1 ATS) at (1) Los Angeles (8-2, 7-2-1 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Spurs, who finally shook a game but inexperienced New Orleans squad in seven games in the conference semifinal round, travel to Staples Center to open the Western Conference finals against the well-rested Lakers.
San Antonio survived a couple of Hornets runs during Game 7 on Monday at New Orleans and ultimately prevailed 91-82 as a five-point underdog to win the second-round series and advance to the Western Conference finals for the fourth time in the last six years. Manu Ginobili led the way with 26 points, including four 3-pointers, while fellow guard Tony Parker had 17 and Tim Duncan added 16, and the Spurs kept Chris Paul and David West relatively under control, with the duo combining for 38 points. The Spurs cashed in the last two games of the series and are on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, following a 1-3-1 ATS skid.
Parker is averaging a team-best 23.7 points per game for San Antonio, which holds a slim scoring edge over its playoff opponents, averaging 96.4 ppg while allowing 95.6. Also, both the Spurs and their opponents are hitting at a 45.4 percent clip from the field in the postseason.
Los Angeles fended off Utah 108-105 Friday in Game 6 of their conference semifinal series, cashing as a four-point road pup to halt a two-game ATS hiccup. Kobe Bryant had 34 points, eight rebounds and six assists in the victory, and the Lakers held Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer to a combined 33 points in the win. Going back to the regular season, L.A. has won 16 of its last 19 games and is 10-2 SU (9-2-1 ATS) in its last 12 starts.
The Lakers have reached the conference finals for the fifth time in this decade, but the first time since 2004. They lead all playoff teams with a 112.1 ppg average on sturdy 48.7 percent shooting, while allowing 105.0 on 43.7 percent shooting. Los Angeles also has the league’s leading postseason scorer in Bryant, who is averaging 33.3 ppg. The rest of the top seven playoff scorers have already been eliminated from the field.
These two teams split their four regular-season meetings, with the home team going 4-0 SU, but the Spurs were 3-1 ATS. Los Angeles made a statement in the final week of the regular season, pounding San Antonio 106-85 at home as an eight-point chalk. The host is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head clashes.
Home teams finished 22-3 SU in the conference semifinals, going 16-8-1 ATS.
Despite Monday’s victory, the Spurs are still in a 2-8 ATS rut on the highway and are on further ATS slumps of 1-4 as an underdog (all on the road, and all in the playoffs) and 2-5-1 against Pacific Division opponents. The lone positive: San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference finals games.
The Lakers, meanwhile, sport a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 9-0-1 after a SU win, 5-0 after three or more days of rest, 6-1 at home, 5-1 as a home chalk of five to 10½ points, 7-2 as a favorite of any price, 8-2-1 against winning teams and 24-9-1 following a spread-cover. On the negative side, Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five at Staples against teams with a winning road record, 1-4 ATS in its last five conference finals contests and 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 against Southwest Division opponents.
The over for San Antonio is on streaks of 4-1 in the conference finals, 5-2 against the Pacific Division and 7-3 after an ATS win, but the “under” trends for the team take over from there, including 5-2-1 overall, 4-1 on one day of rest, 5-2 as a road pup of five to 10½ points, 13-6-1 as an underdog, 7-3 as a playoff ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 29-14-1 in roadies against teams with winning home records.
For Los Angeles, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-2 in the conference finals and 38-16 when giving five to 10½ points, including 22-7 in the last 29 as a home chalk of five to 10½. Finally, the over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings between these squads at Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
New York Mets (22-21) at Atlanta Braves (24-21)
The Mets send right-hander Mike Pelfrey (2-4, 4.17 ERA) to the hill at Turner Field to take on 22-year-old righty Jair Jurrjens (4-3, 2.82) and the Braves in the third game of a four-game series.
These National League East rivals opened their third series of the season against each other with a doubleheader Tuesday, and the Braves won both games by scores of 6-1 and 6-2. Atlanta is 6-3 in its last nine contests and enters tonight on a 23-6 run at home, including an MLB-best 18-5 home record this season.
The Mets, who took two games at Yankee Stadium over the weekend before getting swept last night, continue to struggle with consistency, as they’ve now dropped 10 of their last 18 overall, going 5-5 on the road during this stretch.
The Braves are 5-2 this season against the Mets, winning all four games at home. Atlanta is now 39-18 in the last 57 head-to-head clashes at Turner Field. Also, Pelfrey and Jurrjens squared off last month in New York, the Braves winning 6-3, as Jurrjens gave up all three runs on just two hits and four walks in six innings, while Pelfrey got tagged for five runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings.
Including the loss to the Braves on April 25, the Mets are 0-5 in Pelfrey’s last five starts, with the pitcher dropping four straight decisions. On Thursday against Washington, he gave up just one run on three hits in 7 2/3 innings, but New York provided no offense in a 1-0 loss. Pelfrey, set to make his eighth start of the year, is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA on the highway this season, and he has a 1-2 mark with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts (four appearances) against the Braves.
Jurrjens, who will make his 10th start, allowed two runs on eight hits in five innings Friday against Oakland, getting a no-decision in Atlanta’s 3-2 home victory. The youngster, who pitched for Detroit in his major-league debut last season, is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA at home this season. His start last month against New York was the first time he had faced the Mets.
The Mets are 5-2 in their last seven Wednesday outings and 7-3 in their last 10 when playing Game 3 of a series, but they are just 2-6 in Pelfrey’s last eight road starts. The Braves, meanwhile, are on runs of 9-2 at Turner Field against winning teams and 4-0 in Jurrjens’ last four home starts, but they are 3-6 in their last nine inside the division.
With Pelfrey starting, the under for New York is on a 5-1 run overall, 4-0 against the N.L. East and 5-2 in his last seven road outings. Also, the under is 8-0 in Jurrjens’ last eight starts (3-0 at home).
Also, with both of yesterday’s games staying under the total, the under is now 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these rivals and is 10-1 in the last 11 battles in Atlanta. Finally, the under is on runs of 40-15-2 for Atlanta overall, 7-1 for Atlanta at home and 20-8-2 for New York against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Cleveland (22-23) at Chicago White Sox (24-20)
Paul Byrd (2-3, 3.61 ERA) is scheduled to toe slab for the Indians when they face the White Sox and Javier Vazquez (4-3, 3.53) in the middle game of a three-game series at U.S. Cellular Field.
Chicago ran its winning streak to six in a row with Tuesday’s 4-1 victory over the Indians, who have now followed up a 6-1 run with four straight losses.
Although the season series is tied 2-2, Cleveland is still 7-4 in the last 11 meetings overall and 7-4 in the last 10 head-to-head clashes at U.S. Cellular.
Byrd, who will make his ninth start of the year, scattered five hits in 7 1/3 innings scoreless innings in his most recent start on May 13, a 4-0 home win. However, the veteran right-hander is 0-3 with a 6.53 ERA on the highway this season, but he’s 8-2 with a 4.22 ERA in 13 career starts against Chicago, including 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA in four outings last year.
Vazquez has helped the White Sox to wins in his last two starts, though he got a no-decision last Thursday against the Los Angeles Angels, allowing three runs on nine hits in 6 2/3 innings, leaving with the game tied at 3 as Chicago went on to a 4-3 road win. Vazquez is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA at U.S. Cellular this season and is 5-4 with a 4.08 ERA in 12 career starts against Cleveland.
The Indians are on runs of 5-1 against winning teams, 26-11 against American League Central rivals and 10-4 in Wednesday contests. Also, with Byrd throwing, they are 16-5 in their last 21 inside the division and 11-5 against winning teams. However, Cleveland has dropped its last five roadies and is 0-4 in Byrd’s last four road starts.
The White Sox are 5-1 in their last five home games, and with Vazquez starting, they are on hot streaks of 10-3 overall, 7-1 against the A.L. Central, 5-1 at home and 5-2 when he pitches on five days’ rest. However, Chicago is 2-5 in its last seven Wednesday contests and 1-5 in Vazquez’s last six Wednesday starts.
The under is 6-0 in Byrd’s last six overall and 4-1-2 in his last seven against winning teams, but the over is 10-2 in his last 12 Wednesday outings. Chicago, meanwhile, has a bevy of “over” trends with Vazquez starting, including 10-3 overall, 7-1 inside the division, 6-1 at home and 10-4 with Vazquez on five days’ rest.
For Cleveland, the under is on runs of 23-6 overall, 7-0 against winning teams, 7-1 on the highway and 7-2 against division opponents, but the over is 7-3-1 in its last 11 on the road against winning teams. For Chicago, the under is on streaks of 6-1 overall and 5-1 against the A.L. Central. On the flip side, the over is 4-2 in the last six series meetings overall and 4-2 in the last six head-to-head battles in Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Carlo Campanella
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers closed out the series against Utah in 6 games, with the last 3 meetings being extremely high scoring affairs, with both teams putting up 104 points or more! Look for Wednesday's Game #1 of the Conference Finals against San Antonio to take on a whole new tone as this game easily goes "Under" the Total knowing that Los Angeles has gone "Under" in 11 of 12 games after playing in 3 straight games with a combined final score of 205 points or more. Good luck - Carlo Campanella
Play on: Under
Alex Smart
Arizona Diamondbacks -159
Brandon Webb the Arizona DBacks ace hurler has started his season in red hot form as is evident by recording a 9-0 record along with a stingy 2.56 ERA, including a magnificent 0.99 WHIP. Opposing offenses are hitting a lowly .198 against Webb, which is the best mark of any pitcher in the major leagues. Ricky Nolasco (2-3,5.18 ERA) his Florida Marlins pitching opponent , is currently operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. The Marlins righty has allowed 45 hits in 41.2 innings of work , and has been for the most part ineffective this season, especially at home where he owns a bloated 11.56 ERA,in two starts . Considering the pitching matchup, its not a hard decision backing the DBacks in this spot. Final notes & Key Trends: Webb is 14-3 L/17 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5. Webb is 4-0 on road this season, along with a 1.33 ERA. Arizona is 26-7 L/33 as big favorites of -151 to -200. Marlins have lost 20 of the L/2 7 vs the NL West. Play on Arizona
Matt Fargo
St Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Play: St Louis Cardinals
St. Louis lost a tough one last night as it was one swing of the bat that resulted in a three runs home run and the difference. I will get back on the Cardinals tonight as they are still clearly the better team. They have now won three of their last four games and for the most part they have shut down the anemic Padres offense, allowing just five runs in the first two games of this series while allowing a .200 average. The offense is still hitting well, batting a .295 clip over the last 10 games.
One win is not going to suddenly turn this season around for the Padres. Winning back-to-back games is not easy for this team as they have done it once since mid-April, going 1-8 in their last nine games following a win. After a somewhat decent start to the year, the Padres are 9-24 over their last 33 games, which is putting heat on the coaches and the players. It has been a mixture of bad pitching and poor offensive production of late but the offense takes the cake, hitting just .234 including a mere .214 at home.
Chris Young is struggling on the mound. He has allowed four runs or more in two of his last three starts and even though he is heading home, he is not in good form. His 4.18 ERA on the season is a run higher than his WERA from all of last year but more concerning is his 1.45 WHIP. He is walking far more hitters and he has issued at least three walks in seven of his nine starts. Young faced the Cardinals twice last season, losing both games by a 5-0 decision.
Braden Looper counters for the Cardinals and while he received the loss against Tampa Bay last time out, he pitched his best game in his last three outings. He has had his share of struggles on the road but he has faced some tough offenses in Milwaukee, Colorado and Houston. He gets a huge break against the worst hitting offense in baseball. Despite going 0-3 in quality starts on the road, he is 2-1 and more importantly, he has a solid 1.15 WHIP which will come down even more against the struggling San Diego offense. Play St. Louis Cardinals 1.5 Units
Dave Cokin
Angels @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -135
There aren't too many spots right now to feel confident laying any kind of a price with Toronto. It's not going well for the Blue Jays and there has to be some heat on skipper John Gibbons as the team flounders out of contention in the AL East. The exception is when Shaum Marcum takes the mound. He's establishing himself as a top pitcher with a legit shot at gaining elite status if he maintains his rapidly upward mobility. Marcum is in complete command right now and is overmatching hitters and he's been brilliant at home. Jon Garland has been quietly effective for the Angels and he's got gaudy career stats against the Jays. But I don't think the number has caught up to the level Marcum is at just yet, so I'll take the shot with the Blue Jays here.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Arizona w/Webb
The Diamondbacks send ace Brandon Webb to the hill in Florida when they take on the Marlins at Dolphin Stadium Wednesday night. Aside from being a perfect 9-0 in his team starts this season, Webb is in commanding KW form with 15 strikeouts and two walks in his las three starts. He's also 7-0 in his last seven starts on Wednesdays. Too many good numbers, and a good arm, for the Marlins to overcome here tonight.
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play on: New York over Baltimore (Olsen)
Last time out with lefty Olsen on the hill the Birds survived a late rally by the Nationals to pick up a huge win. However, hurler Olsen was quite lucky as his location and speed seemed off in comparison to prior outings. With New York 29-14 at home versus the Orioles and 97-41 at home versus lefties. I’ll support the suffering Yankees to pick up a big win. Don't miss Brad's two super outings this evening in MLB and NBA action this Wednesday evening.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Reason: The Phillies are struggling having won only 1 of their last 4 games but tonight they will win their second in a row. The Phillies are 9-4 in their last 13 games overall vs. a left-handed starter. In their last 10 road games vs. a lefty the Phillies are 7-3. Philadelphia is 7-3 in Moyer's last 10 starts as a favorite. The Nationals are 5-12 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Washington is 2-8 in Chico's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Washington has lost 4 of his last 5 home starts. The Phillies are 4-0 in Moyer's last 4 starts vs. Washinton. Play on the Philadelphia Phillies -.
Terron Chapman
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: San Antonio Spurs
For Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers to make it to the NBA finals, they must make it pass Tim Duncan and the defending champs. And if game 7 against New Orleans is any indication, the champs aren't going out without a fight.
The Spurs showed their championship pedigree Monday evening picking apart the upstart Hornets en route to a 91-82 victory. They now must turn around and play the number one seeded Los Angeles Lakers tonight at Staples Center in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
We'll back the Spurs in this position with the short time to prepare and quick turnaround. The four days off between game 6 and 7 of the Spurs semifinal round with the Hornets did wonders for the Spurs veteran legs in game 7. No longer were the Spurs beat to loose balls and outhustled. In fact the Spurs were outrebounded in every game in New Orleans except game 7.
These two split their season series 2-2 with neither team able to win on the other's home court. But this will be the first time the Lakers will face a healthy Spurs team at home this season. In both games in LA in the regular season the Spurs were without some of their key stars. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan did not play in a december meeting in LA, a 102-97 Lakers win. The Spurs were without Manu Ginobli in their second trip to Staples a 106-85 Lakers win. And only one game, the most recent Lakers win in Staples featured the Lakers mid season acquisition Pau Gasol.
As you can see there alot of first to the season that will be on display tonight to give the defending champs so much of a cushion with so much unknown provides great value for anyone interested in backing them. The Lakers squad is perhaps the most talented in the NBA but alot has yet to be determined about just how good they really are. Monday night the Spurs gave us a reminder of just how good they can be. The Spurs are 5-1 ats their last 6 conference finals games. Play 2 unit on the San Antonio Spurs. .
Big Al McMordie
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Chicago Cubs
At 8:05pm our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Houston Astros. While the Houston Astros pitching rotation is falling apart, the Cubs group of starters is doing just the opposite and coming together better than it has in years. Ace Carlos Zambrano is having his usual stellar season, Ted Lilly is flourishing in his new home, and Ryan Dempster is breaking out in his first season as a full-time starter since 2003. And former starter Kerry Wood is finally healthy and dominating hitters like he did years ago, only this time it's in a new role as Chicago's closer. That leaves room for some youngsters to come up and compete for the #4 and #5 positions in the rotation. One of these is 22 year-old righthander Sean Gallagher. The Cubs have done the right thing by letting Gallagher develop in the minor leagues since he came into professional ball in 2004. And Gallagher has been successful at just about every stop in the Minors, showing decent control and big strikeout numbers. In five starts in AAA Iowa before being called up, Gallagher had 30 strikeouts and only 9 walks in 29 innings to go along with a 3.10 ERA. Gallagher has not embarrassed himself in his two starts so far with the Major League Club and the Cubs are in fact 2-0 during that time. This is a great matchup for him against a Houston team that is reeling right now and in a ballpark in which the Cubs have had a lot of success lately. Take Chicago.
JB's Computer Picks
Tampa Bay Rays - 105
Arizona Diamondbacks - 175 * * *
Chicago White Sox - 145
Best Bets * * *
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASES
DETROIT-140
TORONTO-135
PHILLIES-126
ATLANTA-132
FLORIDA+152
MILWAUKEE-117
TAMPA BAY UNDER 8.5
NBA EARLY RELEASE
LAKERS UNDER 197
Scott Spreitzer NBA TKO GAME OF THE WEEK! *6-1, 86% Winners!
I'm laying the points in game one with the Lakers. Two major issues led to San Antone's game-seven win over New Orleans. First of all, Hornets coach Byron Scott was completely out-classed. Going to a soft-double team after dominating the Spurs each time they took it to Duncan earlier in the series was a huge mistake. The other issue was the outside shooting of Finley and Horry. The two veterans were on top of their game and the Hornets were a mess defensively...enough said. Thankfully, we cashed with the Spurs. But in this one, the Spurs will obviously NOT have a huge coaching advantage. If Popovich changes his defensive rotations every three or four minutes like he did in game-seven against New Orleans, Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant will adjust accordingly. The Lakers are also the well-rested team in this one. While the fact that the Spurs spent the night on a New Orleans' tarmac after clinching the series is a little over-blown, they have been an average squad when playing with just one day off between games. Meanwhile, the Lakers ARE a perfect 6-2, 75% ATS when they're playing with three or more days rest. And, as far as the matchups are concerned, I expect Gasol to give Duncan fits, while defensive specialist Bruce Bowen has not had much of an impact when guarding Kobe Bryant. In fact, in their last three postseason series (Lakers won two) Bryan has averaged 26, 32, and 26 points against Bowen and San Antone. I believe game one will go to the Lakers. Los Angeles is my Wednesday night TKO.
Ben Burns
SPURS
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN ANTONIO. The betting public loves the Lakers here, most feeling that the "lack of rest" will hurt the Spurs. While the "plane malfunction" certainly wasn't ideal, I still don't believe that the lack of rest will be as big a factor as most seem to expect it to be. While they didn't have to travel (or sleep on a plane) it's still worth noting that the lack of rest didn't affect the Celtics last night, as they showed no ill effects from their 7-game series with the Cavs. More importantly, keep in mind that the defending champs didn't play yesterday and that prior to Monday's game, they hadn't played since the previous Thursday. To put it another way, this will be just the third game the Spurs have played over the past eight days. Considering that teams regularly play three games in just four nights in the regular season, and occasionally four games in five nights, the current pereceived "lack of rest" isn't necessarily as big a deal as most are making it out to be. There's also the chance that the Lakers may have had a little more rest than they would have liked, as they haven't played since Friday. Note that they're just 48-54-1 ATS the past 93 times they played with three or more day's rest in between games. While an airplane malfunction might phase a lesser team, the defending champions don't rattle easily - just ask the Hornets. The Spurs have loads of big game experience and they know that they're going to have to win a game on the road, if they want to win this series. They'd rather not have to wait all the way to Game 7 (again) to do so and they know that Game 1 can often offer a great chance to 'steal' one on the road. Note that the Spurs have won 16 of their last 24 conference final games, including a 4-1 SU/ATS mark last season. Despite a loss here the last time the teams faced each other here, the Spurs have still won 10 of the last 15 series meetings. A look at the March loss shows that Ginobli didn't play for the champs, which is obviously extremely significant. After the game, when being questioned about what went wrong, Coach Popovich confidently answered: "Come playoff time, we'll have as good a chance as anybody to do well..." A closer look at the past 15 meetings shows that the majoirty of the Spurs' 10 victories came by double-digits and that four of their five losses came by eight points or less. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle here, with an excellent shot at an outright win. *Western Conf. GOW
Jim Feist
Angels are getting healthy on offense and come off a big 10-2 Freeway Series victory over the Dodgers. Catcher Mike Napoli had two homers in the game and now has 10 on the season! Starter Jon Garland has owned the Blue Jays in his career with a 9-2 record. The Angels have a winning road mark while the Blue Jays are just a .500 team at home. This shapes up as an excellent spot for the visitors.
Play the Angels