AAA Sports Handicapping
Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Oakland Athletics - Under 8.5
Note: Don't even think about waiting to get this one as the betting line is moving against us right now. We have a great combination for 2 very hot throwers going for this afternoon contest and the visitors playing in their worst situation batting against the lefty. As good as the DRays are at scoring runs, they have not been doing so verses Southpaws, batting just .249 for the season, .241 the last 10 played, and .209 on the road all year. Eveland has pitched in bad luck recently as hes winless since April 25 despite a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts. That demonstrates quality throwing, and pathetic run support. He has especially been superior at this Pitcher Happy Venue in Oakland going 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA in three starts. The Athletics have resorted to what we knew all along they were, a great throwing team, and a weak hitting team. They are batting a meager .230 over their last 12 games and have plated just 19 runs over the last 8 games. They bat against one of the hottest throwers in the AL right now with Sonnanstine having a 5-0 record in his last 6 starts and an ERA well under 3 runs. Tampa Bay's Bats are not smoking as they were earlier in the year and run production has been down because of that. These two teams have had outstanding work from the Bullpens all year, with both currently ranked in the Top 10 of all Major League Baseball Squads. It is going to take 9 scores to beat us and that is not likely here at Oakland where UNDER is 14-7-2. Both teams have been Great UNDER Opps all year with the DevilRays posted a 27-18-1 UNDER Mark and Oakland coming into today's action at 27-16-4 UNDER. The liklihood of at least one of these starters throwing well today is great. Both doing so is good. We should be smiling when this one is in the books.
Jorge Gonzalez
SAN ANTONIO at LA LAKERS
Play San Antonio
The Lakers had the benefit of getting a few days rest when they took care of the Utah Jazz in six games last Sunday. The Spurs did play two days ago in New Orleans winning the decisive game seven. These two teams met four times during the regular season with the home team taking the victory in each game. However, the Spurs did cover three of the games including one in Los Angles. There are many who say that a NBA that gets to rest before the upcoming series has the advantage. In yesterday win and cover by the Boston Celtics, rest was no ally to the Pistons. Celtics looked like the sharper team in their 88-79 victory. The Spurs are a veteran team that knows what has to be done in the playoffs. They will play physical basketball and take their opponents out of their game.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Indians/White Sox UNDER 8.5
The Indians and White Sox will host another pitcher’s duel tonight with Paul Byrd and Javier Vasquez getting the starts for their teams respectively. The UNDER is 8-1 in the Indians’ last 9 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in the White Sox’ last 7 games overall. This trend will continue with Paul Byrd featuring a 2.11 ERA over his last 3 starts. The UNDER is 6-2 in Byrd’s 8 starts this year. Javier Vasquez has a 3.53 ERA on the season and a 3.15 ERA over his last 3 starts for Chicago. The Indians are 19-3 UNDER vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The White Sox are 15-2 UNDER vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Both squads have terrible speed and really struggle to manufacture runs. Cash in with the UNDER 8.5 runs.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Seattle Mariners +132
Seattle will bounce back today after getting absolutely slaughtered by the Detroit Tigers Tuesday. Detroit starter Kenny Rogers (3-4, 6.65 ERA) was tagged in his last start, allowing season highs in runs (7) and hits (11) over four innings of an 8-4 setback at Kansas City last Thursday. The veteran lefthander owns a 10-12 record with a 4.52 ERA over 52 career appearances against the Mariners, who have collected nine earned runs through 12 innings vs. Rogers since he joined the Tigers in 2006. Rogers is 0-6 (-8.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 6-19 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. Jarrod Washburn is 28-14 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games against AL Central opponents since 1997. Take the Mariners on the Money Line here.
Info Plays
3* on DBacks/Marlins OVER 8
Play Over - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. This is a 38-12 Totals System in favor of the OVER hitting 76% since 1997. Play Over - Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (ARIZONA) - cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 3 games, with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game. This is a 57-25 Totals System in favor of the OVER hitting 69.5% over the last 5 seasons. Arizona is 14-5 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. Florida is 17-7 OVER after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The bats will come out tonight ladies and gents. Bet the OVER 8 runs.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -125
Milwaukee crushed Pittsburgh 7-2 yesterday and with Sheets on the hill today, I have the Brew Crew giving up very little again. The Brewers are 5-0 in Sheets' last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 7-1 in Sheets' last 8 road starts, 6-1 in Sheets' last 7 starts during game 2 of a series, and 19-8 in his last 27 starts overall. The Pirates are 0-5 in Snell's last 5 starts as a home underdog and 4-12 in Snell's last 16 starts as an underdog period. The Brewers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings and they'll have Pittsburgh's number again tonight.
Bob Akmens
Atlanta Braves -140
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows –
On the face of it – and deep beneath the surface as well - this is a pitching mismatch.
Mike Pelfrey, the Mets hurler, has been around the block in the bigs – several times. Or more correctly, he’s tried to circle that block but hasn’t quite made it.
And this sub-mediocrity has shown: 9 road starts in the majors and 3 Mets wins.
He’s part of an endless stream of other pitchers I’ve seen in my lifetime – good enough to pitch at the top-level of the minors – but lacking major league stuff.
Jair Jurjjens goes for the Braves. Some name, huh? The kid’s from Curacao in the Caribbean – and the name’s Dutch, so it’s properly pronounced YARE YOUR-YENS. Given that every soul I ever meet mispronounces my name after seeing it in print, I try to pronounce other people’s names the way they do – instead of mangling them.
Back to Jurjjens. He’s currently the best home pitcher in baseball. Why is that? Because he’s made 9 starts in Atlanta – and 9 times the Braves have run off with smiles on their faces.
There’s no other pitcher in baseball whose team is 9-0 in their last 9 home starts.
And this is no statistical fluke: add in Jurjjens stellar 2.82 ERA and wonderful 1.20 WHIP (walks & hits divided by innings pitchers) and you’ve got the makings of an anti-Pelfrey: the real-deal and potentially a great major-league pitcher long-term.
Plus the Mets are 10-12 away from Shea and the Braves are an amazing 18-5 at home, so the price on this game at -1.40 is a joke.
Go with the BRAVES in this 7:10 PM ET matchup on ESPN
LT Profits
Oakland Athletics -105
The Tampa Bay Rays have been a great story this season, but we are high on starting pitcher Dana Eveland of the Oakland Athletics, so we look for the A’s to avoid getting swept at home here.
Eveland has been brilliant while posting a 3.23 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 53 innings, allowing three earned runs or less in eight of his nine starts. The young southpaw should be doubly tough an a Tampa Bay lineup that has never faced him before, particularly since the Rays are batting just .209 vs. left-handed pitching on the road this year. Also, do not forget that the Athletics still have the second best bullpen ERA in the American League at 3.25, meaning that the A’s will be tough to beat if they can get an early lead.
Well, we see them doing just that vs. Rays starter Andy Sonnanstine. Now granted, Sonnanstine’s numbers for the whole season are actually very similar to Eveland’s, but he has not been nearly as consistent. Sonnanstine did allow just one run on eight hits in eight innings at St. Louis last week, but he is just as likely to revert to his previous two outings, when he allowed a total of nine earned runs and 21 baserunners in only 11 innings.
We will go with the more consistent hurler in Eveland here, especially considering Tampa Bay’s difficulties vs. southpaws on the road.
Pick: Athletics -105
Florida Marlins +155
Now it is obviously a difficult task to beat the 9-0 Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks, but we love this line value on the Florida Marlins at home here.
After all, the Marlins are still in first place in the National League East at 25-19, and although they ran into some difficulties on the road in Cincinnati lately, they are still 6-2 in their last eight home games. Sure they have a patchwork starting rotation after Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson, including tonight’s starter Ricky Nolasco, but they have made up for that fact with an excellent bullpen that has a collective 3.36 ERA.
Besides, Nolasco has not been terrible when the Fish have limited innings, as he has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts while never going beyond six innings. A repeat performance here would be just fine with us, given the quality of the Florida bullpen.
Now, we obviously see no negatives in Webb in this spot, but that would not matter if the Diamondbacks don’t give him any runs. Arizona is averaging just 3.90 runs per game in the last 10 contests (compared to 5.80 runs for Florida), and they are hitting just .220 as a team including a pathetic .179 vs. right-handed pitching over this span.
We look for the D-Backs’ offensive woes to continue here vs. Nolasco and the fine Florida pen, setting up a huge payday at an inflated home price for Marlins backers.
Pick: Marlins +155
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Minnesota Twins
SportsAction365
Arizona/Florida UNDER 8.5
Gameday Network
Texas/Minnesota OVER 9.5
NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
Houston +110
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tonight we go for the hat-trick, and play another UNDER in Game One of the Spurs-Lakers series. San Antonio has played 4 straight playoff games UNDER the total, and while the Lakers did play OVER the posted price in the last 3 games of the Utah series, Los Angeles is on an overall 5-4 UNDER run their last 9 postseason games. Series numbers show the LOW has prevailed in 4 of the last 6 meetings, and 6 of the last 9 overall. Finally, the Spurs are 13-6-1 UNDER the posted price their last 20 games when installed as the underdog. We say Game One goes UNDER!
2* SPURS / LAKERS UNDER 196
Charlies Sports
Tampa Bay at Oakland
The Tampa Bay Rays hope to make this a season full of firsts for their long-struggling franchise.They can take care of a couple more today, when they look to complete their first-ever sweep in Oakland and move nine games over .500 for the first time in club history,
A's -115
Wild Bill
New York Yankees -150 (5 units)
New York Mets +115 (5 units)
Texas Rangers +130 (5 units)
St Louis Cardinals +125 (5 units)
Brian Marshall
Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Plays On: Philadelphia/Washington Over 9.5
Game Analyses: Do you love high-scoring baseball games? If yes, you will love Wednesday's MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals.
The Philadelphia Phillies will be lead by starting pitcher Jamie Moyer. Jamie Moyer is having a bad season. In fact, Jamie Moyer has a 4.89 ERA on the season. In addition, Jamie Moyer has a 5.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. It's safe to say that Jamie Moyer will give up many runs once again today.
The Washington Nationals will be lead by starting pitcher Matt Chico. Matt Chico is also having a bad season. In fact, Matt Chico has a 6.07 ERA on the season. Matt Chico also has a 10.95 ERA in his last 3 starts. It's clear that Matt Chico will give up many runs once again today.
The bottom line, we should see many runs scored today!
Take the Philadelphia Phillies/Washington Nationals Over 9.5
Tom Freese
We like a low scoring game here as both starting pitchers Javier Vazquez of the White Sox and Paul Byrd of the Indians have a better than 10-1 strikeout to walk ratio in their last 3 starts. Cleveland is 8-0 UNDER their last 8 games as underdogs and they are 6-0 UNDER in Byrd's last 6 starts. Chicago is 11-3 UNDER vs. losing teams and they are 16-5 UNDER their last 21 games. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
INDIANS / WHITE SOX UNDER
Matt Rivers
This game is at the very worst 50-50 and I'm therefore all about the visitors. I do give Javier Vazquez a slight edge over Paul Byrd but I would not be surprised in the slightest to see Byrd look the better tonight. Both hurlers have been around the block and are extremely professional. When off either can get smacked around but when on they can look like All-Stars.
Chicago has been just as good so far this season but Cleveland, when all is said and done, will have more wins and the better shot at making it to the post season as they are the superior team. Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner have not really done much of anything but they will at some point to help out a star in Grady Sizemore and prove how the Indians are right up there in the American League and all of baseball.
Being at home in baseball is not what it is in most sports so I really do not give the White Sox that much of an advantage in that regard and in the end I will back what is the overall better club plus a little bit.
Cleveland Indians