EZ Winners Day
1* Whitesox (Action)
1* Rangers (Action)
DAVE MALINSKY 4*
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
The Jay Bruce era started in an explosive way last night, with the promising Cincinnati prospect getting three hits, scoring two runs, and driving in a pair in that series-opening win over Pittsburgh. We believe it helps to add some spark all the way around to a team that has under-achieved to this point, and we have a prime opportunity to get behind the Reds tonight.
We spotted some of the flaws in Tom Gorzelanny’s game early in the season, cashing several tickets with either plays against him or Over’s, but along the way the only 6* attempt that we made was a loss at Pittsburgh, with Cincinnati as our tool. But we do not believe there is anything from that outing that should be of concern. Gorzelanny is a much different pitcher this year than last, with his velocity down and his control way off. But teams getting a look at him for the first time in 2008 might have been expecting the pitcher that they saw in the past, and as such were not able to make the proper adjustments. But here is how it breaks down over nine starts - a 4.85 ERA in six first appearances, but a 9.00 in three games against teams that had faced him already. We can anticipate the Reds timing him much better than in the first go-round, and an offense that is 5th in the N.L. in walks, and drew 10 last night, should have the patience to wear out a pitcher that has walked 35 batters in 45.2 innings, while only striking out 26.
Our timing is also right to get behind Bronson Arroyo here. After getting off to a dismal start he has worked to a solid 2.05 over his last four starts, with 26 strikeouts in 26.1 innings, and in his only appearance from this mound in that span he shut Florida out over seven innings. When quality performers make their turnarounds the marketplace can remain far behind the curve, which is the case with him here, and with Chad Cordero giving the Reds their money’s worth as the closer (2.28 with 11 saves), there is no problem locking it down late.
Wunderdog
Game: Texas at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 runs +135
The Rays continue to lead the AL East and now that we are almost a third of the way through the season, this feat is no longer labeled as a fluke. For the first time in their franchise history, the Rays have built a home-field advantage as they enter this game at 20-9. The better part is how they are winning those 20 games as they are now 16-4 to the -1.5 runline in those 20 wins and overall, including the losses, stand at 16-13. To be getting this team at +135 with an overall home performance of covering 55% is tremendous value. The Rays are also off to a 16-5 start at home as a favorite, so they are winning when they should. Texas has done better on the road, but when they have to play very good teams they struggle, as witnessed by their four-straight defeats at Boston. This one comfortably goes to the Rays.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Blue Jays/A's UNDER 7
These teams totaled just 4 runs in the first game of the series and I expect another weak day at the plate as they are up against two strong pitchers in Halladay and Harden. The Under is 21-8-1 in the Blue Jays last 30 overall, 42-19-3 in the Blue Jays last 64 road games, 5-0 in the Blue Jays last 5 vs. the American League West, and 5-0 in Halladay's last 5 starts on grass. The Under is 7-1 in Harden's last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game and 5-1 in Harden's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Oddsmakers are begging for us to take the over here but we won't bite.
LT Profits
Chicago White Sox +115
Jake Westbrook of the Cleveland Indians is making his first Major League start in a month today, and we look for the hot Chicago White Sox to take advantage of his rustiness.
Sure, the Indians finally broke through for an 8-2 win here last night, but that still leaves the White Sox at 10-3 in their last 13 games. Their starter Gavin Floyd is starting to come into his own this season, as he has an excellent 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nine starts covering 58.1 innings. He now has seven Quality Starts out of those nine outings, and he allowed only two earned runs in 6.1 innings in his only career starts vs. Cleveland last season. He has the support of a Chicago bullpen that is now up to fourth in the Major Leagues with a collective 3.07 ERA.
Now Westbrook had a fine April, but there is no telling how the month-long layoff will affect him. He has made six starts vs. the White Sox since the beginning of last season, and he has a poor 5.06 ERA in 37.1 innings in those appearances. Also, the Cleveland bullpen ranks second to last in all of baseball with a 4.55 ERA, ahead of only Texas.
Also the Indians are still 2-9 in their last 11 games even with last night’s win, and we look for a new losing streak to begin today.
Pick: White Sox +115
Atlanta Braves +110
The Atlanta Braves have been like night and day at home and on the road, but we do look for them to steal a road win at an underdog price when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.
First of all, the Brewers have not exactly been tearing things up at home, going a modest 12-9. Secondly, their starter Jeff Suppan has had just one Quality Start in his last five outings. Suppan has a mediocre 4.47 ERA and a poor 1.54 WHIP overall, and he has allowed 12 earned runs and 16 hits in just 9.1 innings in his last two starts vs. Atlanta. Also, the Milwaukee bullpen is in disarray with a collective 4.23 ERA and Solomon Torres serving as the closer.
Now Jo-Jo Reyes has been no great shakes of the Braves either, but at least he has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last six starts, albeit in limited innings. A repeat performance would do just fine, considering that the Atlanta bullpen has been on a roll lately and has now climbed to 10th in the Major Leagues with a 3.46 pen ERA, making the Braved a Bullpen System play here.
We could easily see this game being decided by the pens, which would give the Braves the advantage.
Pick: Braves +110
Ben Burns Eastern Conf. Finals GAME OF THE YEAR!!
I'm taking the points with DETROIT. After passing on the side in Game 1 (won with the 'under') I've successfully "zig-zagged" with my 'sides' in this series, cashing with Detroit in Game 2, Boston in Game 3 and back again with Detroit for Monday's Game 4. I'm going to break with that pattern here though and go back with the Pistons for the second straight game. Yes, the Celtics are a very talented team and yes, they've had a fantastic season. That being said, they've been over-valued against the pointspread for quite some time now. In fact, after getting blown out in Game 4, they're now an awful 5-11 ATS their last 16 games, including just 2-7 ATS their last nine. Conversely, the Pistons are now a healthy 8-4 ATS their last dozen games. Almost every team that came to Boston this season was intimidated before the game even began. That makes it very difficult to win. The teams were much like boxers that used to fight Mike Tyson in his prime. Excluding the Buster Douglas miracle in Japan, almost every fighter that got in the ring with Tyson was terrified of him. Then, along came the veteran battle-tested Evander Holyfield and he wasn't the least bit intimidated of Iron Mike. All of a sudden, "the bully was getting bullied," and Tyson found himself upset, not once but twice. I make the boxing analogy as, in this instance, I feel that the Pistons are much like Holyfield. Like the fighter, they're experienced and battle-tested. While they surely respect the Celtics, unlike other teams that come here, they don't fear them. They were the first team to beat the Celtics here in the regular season and they've been the only team to do so in the playoffs. Without the intimidation factor, the Celtics become much more beatable. The Pistons tend to thrive in these 'defensive' games, as we find them at a highly profitable 8-1 SU/ATS the last nine times they played a road game with a total ranging in the 170s. They also tend to respond well when coming off a strong defensive performance. In fact, they're 27-6 SU and 23-10 ATS their last 33 after allowing 85 points or less in their previous game. During the same stretch, they were 32-9 SU and 26-15 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Look for the playoff-tested Pistons to build on Monday's big win with another huge effort tonight. *Eastern Conf Finals GOY
Yankee Capper Full MLB
MLB
5 Units - Chicago Cubs -155
5 Units - Pirates/Reds Over 9
3 Units - St. Louis Cardinals -150
3 Units - Arizona Diamondbacks(Runline) +135
3 Units - White Sox/Indians Under 9
3 Units - Los Angeles Angels -130
2 Units - COlorado Rockies +155
2 Units - Twins/Royals Under 8
Professional Gamblers Newsletter
PHILLIES -155 over Rockies (Eaton-Reynolds) (OR -1.5 +128)
PIRATES +121 at Reds (Gorzelanny-Arroyo)
BREWERS -117 over Braves (Suppan-Reyes)
ASTROS +129 at Cardinals (Rodriguez-Wainwright)
GIANTS +149 at Diamondbacks (Sanchez-Davis)
PADRES -136 over Nationals (Estes-Perez) (OR -1.5 +161)
Mr. A's
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins will attempt to win their third straight when they square off against the struggling Kansas City Royals. Kansas City has lost nine straight and five of the last seven meetings against the Twins. They will send their ace Zack Greinke (5-2, 2.82 ERA), to the hill. The right-hander is coming off a dreadful start. He allowed six runs on nine hits over five innings in a 7-1 defeat to the Blue Jays last Friday. Greinke is 2-3 with a 3.65 ERA in eleven career appearances, (7 starts) versus the Twins. Take the Twins. Minnesota has won five of the last seven meetings in Kansas City and counters with Livan Hernandez (6-2, 4.22 ERA). The right-hander has pitched poorly in his last two starts, but has been successful against the Royals in his two career starts this season, 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Minnesota has won 8 of Hernandez’s last 11 starts.
Minnesota Twins + 130
NBA
Detroit Pistons +5½
Under - 173
GINA
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
The Celtics are 9-1 at home during the postseason, while the Pistons are 4-2 on the road. But, Detroit showed they could beat Boston in their house in Game 3. Go with the Pistons in a close defensive fight. Detroit has taken eight of the last 11 games in Boston and is 4-2 ATS in its last six at TD Banknorth Garden. The road team in this series has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 meetings.
Detroit Pistons +5½
Gamblers World
TIP OF THE DAY
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: New York Yankees
The New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles will meet on the field at Camden Yards on Wednesday in a battle of division rivals. The Yankees will pin their hopes on the pitching of lefthander Andy Pettitte in this game. Pettitte has a 4-5 record and a 4.27 ERA this season. Pettitte's opponent in this one will be Jeremy Guthrie. The Orioles ace righthander has a 3.62 ERA to go along with a 2-5 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Yankees listed as 135-moneyline favorites versus the Orioles, while the game's total is sitting at 9. Alex Cintron's walk-off single in the bottom of the 11th inning lifted the Orioles to a 10-9 win over the Yankees on Tuesday night.Baltimore upset New York as +110 home underdogs as the teams played over the 9.5-run total listed by sportsbooks.Kevin Millar went 3-for-5 with two dingers and three runs batted in for the Orioles, while Matt Albers picked up the victory in relief of starter Brian Burres for Baltimore.Johnny Damon was 4-for-5 with a three-run jack for New York, as the teams combined for nine homers on the night.
Jeffmoney
Padres -130 (pod)
Orioles +120
Gavazzi Hoops + Baseball
3% Chicago Cubs
2% Cinci Reds
2% Florida Marlins
2% Baltimore Orioles
2% LA Angels
NBA Opinion Pistons and under
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Reds
5 Dime - Cubs - 1 1/2 Runs
5 Dime - Celtics
FREE - Royals
Paul Leiner
500* NBA Over 173 Det/Bos
50* MLB Yankees -135
25* MLB White Sox +105
free play 10* MLB Over 9 Tex/TB
58-72-1 in MLB. Overall 5-15 L/20 for -1515 units. 😮