Lenny Stevens
10* PISTONS
Larry Ness LEGEND PLAY
Boston Celtics
My LEGEND Play is on the Bos Celtics at 8:35 ET. The Celtics have played more games this postseason than any other team, needing seven games in each of their first two series and are now tied 2-2 in their conference final series with the Pistons. Are they headed for another seventh game? Well, it's going six for sure! I've seen some argue that the Celtics are a tired team and one could make a case Boston sure looked like one in Game 4. However, I think it was more of a "let down situation" after them "breaking through" with their first road win of the playoffs in Game 3 (all five starters scored in double digits in that 94-80 win) and the Pistons (as they seemingly always do) playing extremely well off a loss. The dynamics of this game are different and I see the Celtics coming up big. While Garnett did not play well in Game 4, he's been terrific all postseason. Pierce (3-of-14) shot horribly, as did both Allen and Rondo (each went 2-of-8) in that Game 4. Allen has struggled for the last two rounds now, so I won't predict much of anything from him but I do expect Garnett, Pierce and Rondo (who has generally outplayed Billups in this series) to all play well. As for Detroit, let's start with Billups. The groin injury is obviously bothering him greatly, as other than in Game 2 (5-of-10 for 19 points), he's totaled just 25 points in the other three games of this series, making only 7-of-25 shots (29.2 percent). No one can honestly expect McDyess to come anywhere near his 21 point, 16 rebound performance in Game 4 (his postseason averages are 9.4-7.7) and the same goes Maxiell off the bench. He had a "breakout season" in his third year (7.9-5.3 on 53.8 percent) but had totaled just three points (1-of-8 FGs) and 10 rebounds in his five previous playoff games before getting seven points in Game 3 and 14 points in Game 4, making 9-of-11 shots in the two contests, combined. As badly as Boston played in Game 3 (31.8 percent, including 1-of-9 on three-pointers), the Celtics only trailed by seven points heading in the fourth quarter of that game. Boston has risen to the challenge in every "pivotal game" of this postseason. The Celtics have won two straight Game 5s against Atlanta and Cleveland with the series tied at two-all, plus back-to-back seventh games against those same opponents as well. In this series, after losing Game 2 at home (first home defeat in 10 games this postseason), Boston won its first and only road game of this year's playoffs 94-80, gaining back the homecourt edge. There is no time to be tired and I don't consider fatigue to play any role in this game. Let's also remember that the Pistons had averaged just 87.2 PPG through their first six road playoff games, before 'exploding' for 103 points in Game 2. Boston owned the league's best defensive FG percentage this year during the regular season (41.7 percent), as well as its best three-point percentage. Let me add that the Pistons made just 3-of-22 three -pointers (13.6 percent) the last two games (both in Detroit!) and I think it's fair to say that the Boston 'D' had something to do with that.
LEGEND Play on the Boston Celtics.
Root
Chairman- Celtics
Millionaire- Padres
No Limit- Reds
Perfect Play- Mariners
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
500,000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER
LA Angels w/Saunders -126
Michael Cannon
15 Dime –
PISTONS
Take the points with the Pistons tonight in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals.
I really feel like this is going to be a carbon copy of Game 2 when Detroit knocked off the previously unbeaten at home Celtics, 103-97.
Detroit understands the urgency of this game, which would give them an excellent chance of wrapping up the series in six games if they win tonight. I’m not predicting an outright win, but I do think this game is going to stay close throughout.
The Pistons have done a good job of defending the big three of Boston for most of the series and held them to a combined 11 of 38 from the floor Monday night.
Would I expect them to repeat that performance tonight in Boston?
Probably not.
But I do expect them to hound them enough that they’re not getting open looks everytime either.
I mentioned before that with each passing day point guard Chauncey Billups is getting healthier, which gives the Pistons even more firepower to hang with the Celtics.
Take the points as the Pistons keep this one within the number.
5 Dime –
MARLINS (With Olsen as listed pitcher)
Take the Marlins as the road dog tonight over the Mets.
Scott Olsen will start for Florida and he’s had a nice bounce back season so far. The left-hander is 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 10 starts.
The Mets will counter with Oliver Perez and to tell you the truth this guy is about as Jekyl and Hyde as you’re going to find in a pitcher. He’s back to having control issues, something that plagued him with the Pirates in the 2005-06 seasons after a magnificent 2004.
The left-hander has walked 37 batters in 53 2-3 innings this year, including 14 over his last 18 2-3 innings.
If Perez isn’t throwing strikes he won’t be around very long tonight.
You also have the three-ring circus that is the Mets clubhouse right now with manager Willie Randolph and all his troubles with the front office and media.
This just isn’t a good spot to lay anything with the Mets, so take the Marlins as they grab the road win and we get a little extra on them as the underdog.
TWINS (With Hernandez as listed pitcher)
Take the Twins as the road dog tonight over the Royals.
Livan Hernandez gets the nod for Minnesota and he’s had great success against the Royals this season.
The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in two games, which happen to be his first two against Kansas City in his career.
Hernandez has also done a good job solidifying the top of the rotation after Johan Santana’s defection to the Mets.
The Royals will counter with Zack Greinke, who has had a great start to the season.
But laying the wood with Kansas City is not something that appeals to me, especially against a game Minnesota team.
Greinke has struggled a bit over his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA.
Take the Twins as they grab the road win
GOLD SHEETS LTS
DETROIT
EZWINNERS
MLB
3 STAR: (922) BALTIMORE (+$119) over NY Yankees
(Action)
(Risking $300 to win $357)
3 STAR: (907) LA DODGERS (+$157) over Chicago
(Listing Lowe only)
(Risking $300 to win $471)
2 STAR: (910) MILWAUKEE (-$125) over Atlanta
(Action)
(Risking $250 to win $200)
2 STAR: (922) SEATTLE (-$120) over Boston
(Listing Bedard only)
(Risking $240 to win $200)
NBA
5 STAR: (717) DETROIT (+6) over Boston
(Risking $550 to win $500)
1 STAR: (717) DETROIT (+$235) over Boston
(Risking $100 to win $235)
Lenny Del Genio's #1 MLB Game of the Month **HUGE PLAY**
Play on Cincinnati at 7:10 ET. It's no secret in MLB circles that the Pirates are a lousy road team. Last night's loss to the Reds dropped the Bucs to 9-16 away from PNC Park this season, not to mention that it was their fourth loss to Cincy in four games overall. Starter Tom Gorzelanny really struggles away from home where he's won just once and has an ERA of 7.78. His team loses 67% of the time when priced between +125 and +150 on the road over the last two years. A big problem that the southpaw Gorzelanny has is that he walks too many hitters, 35 in 45 and 2/3 IP. For the Reds, Bronson Arroyo got off to a real shaky start, but has settled down since, including a win in his last start - a 7-2 decision over San Diego. For some reason, Arroyo has struggled pitching in the Queen City, but his last start (0 ER, 7 IP) indicates to us that he's about to "turn it around." In his last four starts, the veteran is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA. Look for the Reds to keep winning. Cincinnati is our #1 MLB Game of the Month.
Lenny Del Genio's 15* AL Game of the Week **HOT HOT HOT**
Play on Kansas City at 8:10 ET. Yesterday, we took the Indians noting they were in the midst of a long losing streak and coming right off an excruciating extra innings loss. Tonight, the Royals find themselves in the same spot and we�re backing them. We do so because of starter Zach Greinke, who has led KC to wins in each of his four starts at home where he has an ERA of just 1.93. Also, road underdogs of +125 to +175 coming off a win by 2 runs or less over a team that has scored four runs or less five or more straight games are a dismal 14-61 since 1997. Kansas City is our 15* AL Game of the Week.
Indian Cowboy
MLB Baseball - Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics
3 units (Normal) TOTAL: Under 7 (-130)
Both these teams are huge under teams. Toronto is 17-34 to the under and Oakland is 19-29. Toronto has gone under 6 out of their last 8. When the total is 7 or less Oakland has hit the under 5 out of 6 times this year. Toronto goes under virtually every game on grass it seems, going 6-17 to the under when not playing on their hard surface. Factor all that in with who's on the mound today for these two clubs and the under is an obvious choice here. Halladay has gone under 70% of his games. He pitches great and he pitches late. And Harden has given up 2 or less in all but one of his starts this year so far.
NBA Basketball - Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
3 units (Play of the Day) TOTAL: Over 173 (-110)
The total on the Celtics/pistons drops 3 points when they play in Boston, yet Boston was the place the highest scoring game in the series was played. Boston comes back home looking to take the lead in the series back. If they are going to do it, they will need to score a lot more than the 75 points they got the other night. In the last month only once has Boston and Detroit played 3 straight unders. They are at 2 and I expect this game to go over the total tonight. Last game Detroit held Boston to its lowest shooting percentage in at least a month. Look for them to bounce back tonight and push the game over.
Chris James Sports
3* Celtics
2* Angels
2* Yankees Under
Erin Rynning
MLB Cincinnati over 9
MLB Playmaker Arizona over 9
MLB Seattle under 8.5
Ben Burns
NHL 4* Pittsburgh Penguins
MLB 4* KC Royals
NBA 5* Detroit Pistons
Mike Rose
MLB 2* Atlanta Braves (Reyes vs Suppan)
MLB 2* SF Giants (Sanchez vs Davis)
MLB 2* Oakland A's (Harden vs Halladay)
NBA 3* Detroit Pistons
Teddy Covers
MLB 3* Cincinnati Reds
NBA 4* Boston Celtics
Seabass
200* Pistons + 6
20* Kc Minn Under
20* Pitt Cinn Over
30* Boston