Wednesday Service Plays

Robert Ross

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Reason: Arizona a better team than its 3-7 mark prior to last night's game shows. Owings gives them an extra bat in the lineup here, always a plus. They are 14-10 in day games and 33-18 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile MILWAUKEE is 49-65 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. Take Arizona!

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

Play on: Chicago White Sox (Danks) over Kansas City

The Royals are clearly a faltering baseball team and they go into a negative venue this evening out in Chicago. In their series the Sox have out played KC 39-14 at home. In addition, the ChiSox are 7-2 L9 vs. RHP and overall 8 of 11 at home most recently. With Kansas City sagging at 3-13, can’t help supporting the first place club in the AL Central.

Alex Smart

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

Edinson Volquez,(7-2,1.46 ERA) has been one of the Reds most consistent hurlers this season, and has only allowed more than 1 ER in a game twice during his current campaign. Brett Myers( 3-6,5.52 ERA) will return fire for the Phillies . The righty hurler is operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum , compared to his Reds pitching opponent , as is evident by having allowed 75 hits in 63.1 innings of work this year. Needless to say , this pitching matchup very much favors the Reds, making them the right side tonight at a value price . Final notes & Key Trends: Phillies are 0-7 in Myers' L7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Reds are 5-0 in Volquezs last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. Play on the Reds

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Cleveland w/Lee

Note: The Tribe looks to get back on the winning track behind Cliff Lee when they take on the Rangers in Arlington this evening. Lee has been a model of consistency on the road this season where he is 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA. He's also cashed in 14 of his last 19 team starts during his good month of June. With that we'll back the better team and the better arm here tonight.

James Patrick’s Diamond Club Selections

Astros vs. Pirates

Astros right hander Roy Oswalt has won 6 of his past 8 outings against the Bucs and the Stros have won 8 of 11 in Wednesday action to date. Our selection in Major League action is Houston Astros.

SPORTS ADVISORS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay (35-23) at Boston (36-25)

The American League East’s top two teams meet for the middle game of a three-game set at Fenway Park, with Rays right-hander Edwin Jackson (3-4, 3.70 ERA) toeing the slab against Red Sox right-hander Josh Beckett (5-4, 4.30).

In the series opener Tuesday night, Boston rode a four-run sixth inning to a 7-4 victory, earning its 11th straight victory at Fenway to improve its league-best home record to 22-5. Despite Tuesday’s setback, a surprising Tampa squad is still on an 18-7 streak, but the Rays are 11-13 in roadies this season and 43-98 in their last 141 as a visitor dating to 2006.

The host has won all seven meetings between these divisional rivals this year, with the Red Sox winning the last four meetings, including a three-game sweep at Fenway a month ago. Boston has dominated Tampa over the years, taking 96 of the last 139 meetings and posting an eye-popping 43-9 mark in the last 52 head-to-head battles at Fenway Park.

Tampa’s success this season hasn’t been as great with Jackson starting, as the Rays are 6-5 in his 11 outings, and Jackson has just one win in his last nine starts, going 1-4 with four no-decisions after starting the season 2-0. On Thursday against the Chicago White Sox, he allowed four runs on 10 hits in six innings in a 5-1 home loss.

Jackson is 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in four road starts this season, getting blasted for six runs on nine hits in four innings of a 7-3 loss at Boston on May 2. However, a week prior to that, he yielded just one run on five hits in seven innings as Tampa notched a 2-1 home win over the Sox. Jackson is 2-2 with a 5.50 ERA in nine career appearances (six starts) against Boston.

Beckett, who is set to make his 11th start of the year, has gone 1-2 with one no-decision in his last four starts. On Friday at Baltimore, he gave up two runs on four hits in six innings and left with the game tied, and Boston went on to win 5-2 in 13 innings, giving the Red Sox a 4-2 record in Beckett’s last six outings, with the right-hander going at least six innings in five of those games.

Despite a 5.40 ERA, Beckett is 3-0 in three home starts this year, including a 12-4 victory over Tampa on May 3 in which he allowed four runs on seven hits in eight innings. In the start prior to that, he gave up just two runs on four hits in seven innings but got no offensive support in a 3-0 loss at Tampa. Beckett is 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA in seven career starts against the Rays.

The Rays are 4-1 in their last five against A.L. East foes, 10-4 in the second game of a series, 4-1 with Jackson going against a division opponent and 4-1 with Jackson starting Game 2 of a series. But the trends turn negative from there, including 26-64 in road games against winning teams, 33-91 as a road ‘dog and 3-9 on Wednesday, and with Jackson starting, Tampa is 0-7 on the road against winning teams, 1-4 on Wednesday and a dismal 14-29 overall.

The Red Sox are 2-6 in their last eight Wednesday contests, but the trends are all positive after that, including 40-12 at Fenway, 40-16 as a chalk and 31-13 in the second game of a series. And with Beckett hurling, Boston is on a 6-0 tear at home, an 11-1 run at home against winning teams, 20-6 overall against winning teams and 8-3 in division play.

With Jackson starting, the under for Tampa is on streaks of 15-5-1 overall, 12-4 as an underdog and 8-3 against division rivals, but the over is 6-2-1 on the road against winning teams. Meanwhile, with Beckett going for Boston, the over is on a 4-1 run at Fenway.

Tuesday’s contest cleared the posted total of 9½, halting a 5-0 “under” run for Tampa Bay, and the over is now 9-3-1 in the Rays’ last 13 roadies. For Boston, over is 6-1-3 in its last 10 against the A.L. East. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 4-1 in Jackson’s last five starts against the Red Sox, but the over is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head clashes in Beantown and 4-1 with Beckett pitching against the Rays.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON

Toronto (32-28) at N.Y. Yankees (28-30)

The Blue Jays will send red-hot Jesse Litsch (7-1, 3.18 ERA) to the mound to take on veteran right-hander Mike Mussina (8-4, 4.26) and the Yankees in the second game of a three-game series in the Bronx.

Toronto routed New York 9-3 on Tuesday, mostly due to a six-run seventh inning. The Blue Jays are a torrid 15-6 in their last 21 starts, including 10-4 in roadies. Meanwhile, the Yankees have lost three in row and are just 14-13 at home this season, though they are still 8-4 in their last 12 overall (5-1 in their last six at home).

The season series is now tied at 2 between these American League East rivals, with New York having taken two of three at home in a season-opening series.

Litsch, a 23-year-old in just his second season, hasn’t lost since April 22, going 5-0 with two no-decisions, though Toronto dropped both those games. He was sterling Thursday at Oakland in his 11th start of the year, scattering seven hits over seven scoreless innings in a 12-0 Blue Jays blowout, and that outing followed a seven-hit, complete-game shutout in a 6-0 home win over Kansas City.

Litsch is 4-1 with a 3.41 ERA in six appearances (five starts) on the highway this season, and he is 1-1 with an inflated 6.08 ERA in three career starts against New York. Those starts all came last season, as he allowed nine runs (all earned) on 15 hits in 13 1/3 innings, but the youngster got his win at Yankee Stadium, yielding just one run on five hits in 7 2/3 innings.

Mussina, gearing up for his 13th start, has been steady all season, pitching at least five innings in seven of his last eight outings as he’s gone 7-1 in that stretch. On Friday at Minnesota, he allowed four runs – all in the first inning – on six hits in six innings, and the Yanks’ offense helped him out in a 6-5 victory.

In his first outing of the year, Mussina gave up four runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings in a 5-2 home loss to Toronto, but he’s 23-12 with a 3.35 ERA in 42 career starts against the Jays. Also, Mussina is 4-3 with a 5.17 ERA at home this season.

The Blue Jays are 8-2 in their last 10 against right-handed starters, 9-3 in their last 12 overall and 5-0 in their last five against losing teams, and with Litsch taking the ball, they are on runs of 4-0 as underdog, 5-0 in the second game of a series and 5-1 on the road. However, Toronto is 3-7 in its last 10 against the A.L. East and 2-7 in its last nine on the highway against losing teams.

Despite their current three-game skid, the Yankees sport positive trends of 38-16 on Wednesday and 53-27 as a home chalk, and with Mussina starting, they are 4-1 on Wednesday, 10-4 as a favorite and 5-2 against winning teams. On the flip side, New York is 2-5 in Mussina’s last seven starts inside the division.

For Litsch, the under is on streaks of 11-4 against losing teams, 7-2 in Game 2 of a series, 6-2 on the road against losing teams and 9-4 in division play. With Mussina hurling, the over is on runs of 9-2 against winning teams, 8-3 with the veteran favored and 9-4 at home, but the under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 Wednesday starts.

Even though Tuesday’s game soared over the total, the under for Toronto is on streaks of 29-13-1 overall, 45-22-3 on the road, 25-12-1 against righties, 36-17-1 in the second game of a series and 58-29-2 against losing teams. Conversely, for New York, the over is on runs of 8-3 overall (4-1 last five), 4-1 in Game 2 of a series and 7-2 at home, but the under is 5-0 in its last five Wednesday games and 20-7 in its last 27 against the A.L. East.

Finally, the under is 25-11-2 in the last 38 meetings between these clubs in the Bronx, and 4-1 in the last five clashes overall, with the lone “over” coming last night.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Scott Spreitzer

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

I'm laying the price with the White Sox on Wednesday. Ozzie Guillen blew a gasket and the White Sox have responded without wasting any time. Of course, it doesn't hurt that they're playing the lowly Royals. But the bats exploded on Tuesday and there will be no letting up against Luke Hochevar. The righty has given up 13 earned runs in his last 17 1/3 innings of work, and he's 1-3 on the road this season with a hefty 6.35 ERA and 1.76 WHIP! In his last three starts, it wouldn't have mattered if he threw well or not. The Royals have been horrible at the plate, and they've lost Hochevar's last three outings by a combined score of 18-to-1! With the way Danks has been pitching, I was surprised this line opened less than -1.90! Danks has allowed just 12 earned runs and 62 base runners in his last nine starts, sporting a 2.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in the process. Ozzie's rant and KC's ineptitude produces a second straight win for the Chisox.

Big Al McMordie

St Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
Play: St Louis Cardinals

At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals. It's pretty bad when almost your entire starting infield (and part of your starting outfield) is on the DL and you didn't have a very potent lineup to begin with! That is exactly what has happened to the Nats. Lets start with the man who's supposed to be behind the plate. Paul Lo Duca began the season on the DL, then came off and played a couple of games only to go back on with a hand injury. Nick Johnson beat out Dmitri Young for the starting 1B job and was looking forward to coming back strong this season after missing all of 2007, but he now finds himself also on the DL with a wrist problem. Starting 2B Ronnie Belliard is out with a calf injury, and the latest infield setback is the worst as starting 3B and team leader Ryan Zimmerman just went on the DL with a bad shoulder and is trying to rehab it instead of having what would likely be season-ending surgery at this time. No telling how long he will be out. Add to these the losses of regular outfielder Austin Kearns and closer Chad Cordero, and you have a seriously depleted lineup and defense. St. Louis has injuries too, but almost all of its are pitching injuries, and the Cards have a lot of depth there and it's shown so far this season. Both starters Wellemeyer (Cards) and Lannan (Nats) have been outstanding lately, but only one is getting run support as the Cards are 7-5 in Wellemeyer's starts and the Nats are 4-7 in Lannan's. I certainly can't see that trend changing tonight. Take St. Louis.

Bobby Maxwell

Chicago Cubs at SAN DIEGO +115

Even though we dropped Tuesday's FREE play on the Rays, we're still 8-4 with our last 12 comp selections. Tonight we're coming with the Padres at home against the red-hot Cubs.

We're going with the Padres at home getting the plus-money in this one as they have dominated the Cubs at Petco Park in San Diego the last few seasons, winning six of their nine meetings.

Tonight, San Diego has Greg Maddux (3-4, 3.69 ERA) on the hill going up against the Cubs' Ted Lilly (5-4, 5.54) in this one.

Maddux has been good his last three, posting a 2.76 ERA even though he's got three no-decisions the Padres have won all three. At home this season, the veteran is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA in 29.1 innings. Last time out he held the Giants to two runs over six innings of a 7-3 victory.

Over the last two seasons the Padres are 2-1 when Maddux goes up against Chicago.

Lilly has been touched up a bit in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs (eight earned) and 18 hits in nine innings of work. He faced the Padres back on May 14 and allowed four runs on six hits over six innings, but his offense bailed him out with an 8-5 victory.

San Diego is 9-3 in Maddux's last 12 home starts and 10-4 in his last 14 outings against teams from the N.L. Central. We're going to back the home team and grab the plus-money in this one.

2* SAN DIEGO

Sports Gambling Hotline

Tampa Bay at BOSTON -165

Hard not to like the OVER tonight when Tampa Bay and Boston play the middle game of their three game set.

Last night these teams combined to go OVER the posted total for the 4th time in 4 meetings at Fenway Park this season.

For the season, the Rays have been OVER the total in 14 of 23 on the road this season, and tonight looks like another OVER to us.

Edwin Jackson has been hit hard his last 2 outings, as the righty has allowed 7 runs over his last 11 innings of work, and Jackson's last start against the Sox saw 6 runs cross in 4 frames of work.

Josh Beckett will counter for the Red Sox, and while the righty is 3-0 at home this year, his home ERA stands at 5.40! Beckett did allow 4 runs over 8 innings in his last start against Tampa, so the track record for runs is certainly there for both starters.

Look for the hitters to lead the way again tonight.

Play on the OVER.

2* OVER

Karl Garrett

Cleveland at TEXAS

Tonight I am going to have to go with another OVER between the Indians and the Rangers.

Last night the teams combined for 19 runs and 31 hits as the hitters once again wore down the pitchers. The night before the teams plated 22 combined runs for an easy OVER as well.

The Rangers have now been involved in 4 straight OVERS, and OVERS in 6 of their last 8 games.

A look at the pitching matchup shows Cliff Lee sporting a season ERA under 2, but Lee has allowed 11 runs in his last 19 innings. Meanwhile Sidney Ponson has been touched up for 9 runs over his last 12 innings of work.

I just don't see this game featuring too many goose eggs on the scoreboard tonight.

Take the OVER.

2* OVER

JEFFERSONSPORTS

WED EARLY RELEASE

ATLANTA-142
ST. LOUIS-119
CHICAGO CUBS-118

Jim Feist

CIN Reds and PHI Phillies
Take CIN Reds

There's an ace on the mound in this one in young Cincy right Edinson Volquez. He has exploded out of the gate with a 7-2 record and a 1.46 ERA. The Reds are 8-1 his last nine starts. As hot as the Phillies have been, the cool off badly when Brett Myers lugs his 5.56 ERA to the mound. The Phillies are 1-6 the last 7 starts by Myers. Play the Reds!

Dave Cokin

TOR Blue Jays and NY Yankees
Take TOR Blue Jays

I went with the Blue Jays for the free play Tuesday night, and will come right back with them again tonight. Jesse Litsch is in great form for Toronto. Mike Mussina can still be effective at times, but he's no longer money. Plus, with the transition of Joba Chamberlain to the rotation, the Yankee bullpen is in a pretty lousy state. Look for the Blue Jays to make it two straight over the Yanks.