VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Milwaukee (Parra) -105* over Arizona (Owings)
Houston (Oswalt) -115** over Pittsburgh (Duke)
WILD BILL
Florida +145 (2 units)
Rockies +130 (2 units)
Mets -115 (5 units)
Reds +110 (4 units)
Over 9 Astros-Pirates (1 unit)
Pirates +100 (1 unit)
St Louis -110 (1 unit)
Angels -130 (1 unit)
Boston -175 (1 unit)
Over 8 1/2 Jays-Yankees (1 unit)
Yankees -125 (2 units)
Indians -130 (5 units)
Under 9 Orioles-Twins (1 unit)
Orioles +105 (5 units)
Under 8 1/2 KC-Chicago (1 unit)
JACK JONES
MINNESOTA
Baltimore is 37-73 (-27.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and they are 41-68 (-30.1 Units)against left-handed starters over the last 3. Minnesota has had Baltimore's number over the past couple of years, going 13-3 (+10.9 Units) against the Orioles in their last 16 matchups.
JASON LOWRY
STL CARDINALS
We are going with the red birds in this one after a very tough loss last night to the Pirates. LOHSE is 15-4 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. We like our chances in this one with a really good Cardinals team taking on the last place Nationals. The smart play is on St. Louis!
JAKE TIMLIN
Wednesday selection is the Colorado Rockies.
Even though the Rockies cost me money last night I had Colorado circled this afternoon to get a win thanks to Aaron Cook. After all with the Dodgers struggles just as bad as Colorado having lost 9 of their last 12 overall games I completely see today?s match up coming down to pitching where the Rockies have the advantage. Giving Colorado the edge is Cook and his sinker ball which has resulted in a 7-3 record with an ERA of 3.36. Meanwhile for the Dodgers they turn to Kershaw who is making his 3rd career start after getting lit up for 4 run in 3.2 inning of work in his last start. Flat out runs in Los Angeles are hard to come by to start with and with Cook on the hill the Dodgers will struggle while the Rockies will get to the rookie. So starting the day off with a winner take the Rockies plus the road money.
JEFF BENTON
Boston is simply amazing at Fenway Park, now 22-5 on the season after last nights 7-4 victory over Tampa Bay. With that win, the Red Sox improved to 4-0 against Tampa Bay at home this year, with the victories coming by margins of 3, 3, 4 and 8 runs just one blowout after another. In fact, of Bostons 22 victories at Fenway this season, 15 have been of the multi-run variety. Also, ace Josh Beckett has made three starts at home this year, winning all three while getting an average of 9 runs of support from his offense in those three victories.
Beckett has been sharp his last two times out, giving up two runs in each contest, both on the road at Oakland and Baltimore. And his four career victories over Tampa Bay have been by 4, 11, 7 and 8 runs. As for Tampa Bay starter Edwin Jackson, hes certainly been a nice surprise this season. However, Fenway Park has been a house of horrors for the right-hander, as he?s 0-2 with an 8.47 ERA in three starts, all since last season.
Throw in the fact that the Rays are now 9-43 in their last 52 games at Fenway and just 11-13 on the highway this season, and I cant help but see this as another easy multi-run win for the defending champs.
3* RED SOX -1½ runs
TONY WESTON
Were getting right tonight as we focus on some American League action between the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners. These teams are playing in the Emerald City and the Halos will come out on top just as they did the first two meetings of this series.
The Angels come into this game having won four straight and having gone 11-4 their last 15 games. The Halos are also 6-2 their last eight road games and are 5-1 against the Mariners their last six meetings.
The Mariners come into tonights game 3-11 their last 14 games and have gone 3-5 their last eight home games, including three straight losses.
Itll be another loss for Seattle tonight. Take the Angels on the road.
3* ANGELS
Al McMordie
At 8:10pm our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins 'under' the total. After Tuesday night, no matter what happens this season with the Orioles, they can now at least say that they have beaten the Twins in '08. That may not sound like a lot, but after having gone 0-7 against them in 2007, it might just give Baltimore the boost they need to get back into contention. After all, it's not like the O's got blanked by one of 2007's better teams: the Twins were 89-93 last season. This year I think it's safe to say that Baltimore is a little bit better, and Minnesota is a little bit worse than in '07, and chances are that neither team will be in contention come the end of September. But one thing both squads have to like seeing is the performances of their young pitching staffs. Tonight's Baltimore starter, 6'7" Daniel Cabrera isn't exactly young anymore, but he finally seems to be putting together the quality season that everyone thought he could. The Twins have four twenty-something starters in Blackburn, Slowey, Bonser, and tonight's starter, righthander Glen Perkins to go with their ageless wonder Livan Hernandez. The only one of this young quartet that isn't performing at or above expectations right now is Bonser, and it appears he'll be moved to the bullpen to try and get him straightened out when another youngster, Scott Baker, comes off the DL. So both teams have some good, young pitching, but not a lot going on offensively right now. The under is 8-3 in the last eleven meetings between these two in Minnesota, and I look for another low-scoring game in the Metrodome tonight. Take the 'under'
Ferrall's FAVORITES
AL FREE B's FOR WED
Cleveland -145 on ML over Texas--Cliff Lee beats the Rangers for the second time this season and Sid Ponson is pitching on three days rest for the first time in his career. He's 0-7 in 11 starts lifetime vs the Tribe. Lee is 8-1 and having a career yr. He even wins when he pitches average.
Orioles +110 on ML over Twins--Baltimore makes it two straight at the Homerdome, where the Twins have dropped 8 of last 12. Cabrera(5-1) over Glen Perkins, who gave up five runs and 10 hits to Yanks in his last start.
WHITE SOX -160 on ML over Royals--Chicago owns the Royals on the South Side. Danks held Tampa to one run in his last start. Hochevar has dropped 3 consecutive starts for KC.
NL FREE B'S FOR WED
Pirates +110 on ML over Astros--The Bucs will upset Roy Oswalt, who's dropped his last two starts. He's entering June with a losing record for the first time since 05. His ERA is 6.63 over his last 3 outings. The Astros have dropped 5 of 6. Zach Duke has also dropped two staright. TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS at PNC. Duke is 0-3 in six careers starts vs Houston.
CARDINALS -125 on ML over Nationals--Wellemeyer has won 4 straight. He allowed one run last Friday in beating Pittsburgh. The Nats have been outscored 15-1 during a 3 game skid
CUBS -125 on ML over Padres--Ted Lilly over Greg Maddux at Petco as Chicago goes for their 10th straight win. They are 16-2 against the NL West this season so far. Chicago has the best record in baseball. It would be the first time since 2001 that the Cubbies have won 10 in a row. They will--TAKE THE OVER 8 RUNS
GINA
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
The Tigers have lost six of their last nine games and have been awful away from home, just four wins in its last 17 road games. Meanwhile, the Athletics have won eight of their last 12 and have won seven of its last nine games at home.
Detroit's lefthander Nate Robertson (3-5, 5.92), is 3-3 with a 5.12 ERA in seven career starts against the Athletics.
Oakland's right-hander Justin Duchscherer (4-4, 2.27 ERA) is 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA in nine career outings against the Tigers, but will make his first career start them.
Go with the A's for a three-game sweep against the Tigers. Oakland has won six of the last 7 games against Detroit at McAfee Coliseum and has won four of Justin Duchscherer last 5 home starts. Detroit has dropped four of Nate Robertson last 5 road starts versus Oakland.
Oakland Athletics -130
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB BASEBALL WINNER
Philadelphia w/Myers -110
MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY
DIGGER'S PICK
COLORADO +125
JUNIOR'S PICK
ATLANTA -140
David Malinsky 4*
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Last night we took advantage of the marketplace being way off in their perceptions between these teams - getting Roy Halladay and the surging Blue Jays as underdogs against a sub-.500 team with bullpen issues was too much to pass up. Those same perceptions are in play again tonight, so off we are to the Bronx again.
Toronto has gone 21-11 since May 1st, including 11-7 on the road, and in that span the Bue Jays have won at five different stadiums of teams that currently sport winning records. Last night’s win would have made it six, except of course that the Yankees are 28-30 and in last place in the A.L. East. Jesse Litsch has been a big part of that run, with his 7-1/3.18 an indication of the kind of savvy he has at such a young age, with only nine walks through 65 innings. He has already picked up four road wins this season, and from a confidence standpoint remember that his final road start of 2007 was a 4-1 here in Yankee Stadium, when he worked into the 8th inning without issuing a walk against a team that was playing with their playoff lives on the line. Now Litsch enters this one off of back-to-back shutouts, and brings the right frame of mind to perform well once again, while a bullpen that has been as good as any in the game this season has plenty of rested and ready arms for late support.
So is Mike Mussina bringing enough to be this kind of favorite? Not at all. At this stage he can be an average pitcher on his good days, and less than that on the others. In 2007 his ERA ballooned to a career-high 5.15, and the peripherals showed why - he allowed a career high of Hits-Per-9, and posted a career low of Strikeouts-Per-9. Naturally that also meant that his ratio of hits per strikeout was an additional career low, reaching over 2:1 in that category. So in reducing his ERA to the current 4.26, has he reached back and found anything? No. His strikeout rate has fallen off even more, from 5.38 to 4.84, and his hits-per-strikeout have climbed from 2.07 to 2.12. The drop in ERA can largely be explained by the fact that nine unearned runs do not show against his ledger - remember that lovely start against Baltimore in which seven of the 10 batters he faced either got a hit or received a walk, but only one run was charged. His best weapon at this stage of his career is his guile, with fooling hitters that are not accustomed to his stuff an occasional plus factor. That is not in play tonight, with every projected Toronto starter having at least 10 career at-bats against him.
As we wrote yesterday, moving Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation leaves a major hole in the Yankee middle relief corps. There are issues of quality and consistency, and with Mussina managing just 34 innings over his last seven starts, only making it into the 7th once, that bullpen will have to be a big part of tonight’s proceedings. It means that for the second night in a row the underdog may have been better pitcher on the mound every inning. The only exception would be Marino Rivera working the 9th, but if this flows the way that we anticipate, there will not be a New York save situation available.
Tony Karpinski
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati at Philadelphia (MLB Baseball Action) 7pm ET This is a game with two pitchers vying, one Brett Myers (Phila) the veteran who leads the majors in home runs allowed at 15. He has struggled this year at 3-6, 5.52 ERA, a bulbous WHIP 1.58, and opponents have been whacking him to the tune of almost .300. His opponent Volquez is 7-2, 1.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and holds the opposition to .197 batting average. Cincy has been a good road team this year, and in them you have a good small road warrior dog. Take the small dog CINCY and win on Wednesday! Play the REDS
LT Profits
Philadelphia Phillies -115
Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds has probably been the best pitcher in the National League this season, but it is hard to pass up on the Philadelphia Phillies at this cheap price at home.
After all, the Phillies are the hottest team in the league having won eight of the last nine games overall, and they have also won seven of their last eight home games to improve to 20-12 in this stadium. Conversely, the Reds are still under .500 overall at 28-31 and they are a woeful 9-21 on the road.
Philadelphia starter Brett Myers has burned a lot of money in the early going as the Phils have tried to transform him back into a starter after he served as their closer last season. However, he looks to have finally turned the corner with two quality starts in his last three outings, and he has season highs in innings (8) and strikeouts (11) in his last start. Remember that Myers had a fine rookie season as a starter, and he was projected to be the Phillies’ number two starter this season after Cole Hamels, so he should only get better as the season goes on.
Now there is no doubt that Volquez has been dominant, with a league leading 1.46 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with an amazing 83 strikeouts in 68 innings. The problem here is that he does not figure to get much run support if Myers’ last start was not a mirage, so we see a tight low-scoring game until the late innings here. Then, we feel that the pendulum will swing strongly in favor of the Phillies one the bullpens get involved, as Philadelphia now leads the Major Leagues with a 2.68 pen ERA.
This makes the Phillies one of our Bullpen System plays today, and they system went 6-2 last night and averaged +97 units the last three seasons.
Pick: Phillies -115
Toronto Blue Jays +120
Jesse Litsch of the Toronto Blue Jays has been surprisingly effective in this starter’s role this season, while Mike Mussina of the New York Yankees has reverted back to his bad habits lately.
Litsch is a shocking 7-1 with a nice 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 65 innings overall, and he has been downright unhittable over his last three starts, with a 0.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP! He is working on a nice streak of 16 scoreless innings over his last two appearances, and he has allowed three runs or less in six straight starts. He also pitched very well in his only career outing at Yankee Stadium last season, allowing just one run and five hits in 7.2 innings.
Mussina appeared to have gotten himself straightened out for the Yankees, but he suddenly imploded in a start vs. the Baltimore Orioles two weeks ago, and the Moose now has a 5.40 ERA with a very high 1.89 WHIP over his last three starts. Also, Toronto has now has a huge edge in the bullpen, as the Jays lead the American League with a 2.85 pen ERA while we feel that the Yankees bullpen has been severely weakened with the move of Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation.
Finally, the Blue Jays are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall and 10-4 in their last 14 road games, and we look for them to build on both of those streaks tonight.
Pick: Blue Jays +120