SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (32-33) at Chicago Cubs (41-24)
The Braves send 22-year-old right-hander Jair Jurrjens (6-3, 3.77 ERA) to the hill at Wrigley Field to take on the Cubs and right-hander Ryan Dempster (7-2, 2.90) in the middle game of a three-game series.
Chicago overcame a 3-0 first-inning deficit and pounded out a 10-5 victory in Tuesday’s series-opener. The Cubs are 12-3 in their last 15 outings, and they improved to 27-8 at Wrigley this season. Meanwhile, the Braves have dropped four in a row, eight of 11 and 10 of 14.
This is the first series of the season between these two teams. Atlanta won the season series last year 5-4, taking two of three in the lone series at Wrigley, and the Braves are still 19-8 in their last 27 contests in Chicago and 19-8 in their last 27 overall against the Cubs.
Jurrjens hasn’t lost in the past month, going 2-0 with three no-decisions, and Atlanta has gone 4-1 in those contests. However, Jurrjens has gotten roughed up in his last two outings against the Reds on the road and Marlins at home, yielding a total of 11 runs on 20 hits and eight walks in 10 1/3 innings (9.58 ERA). The Braves lost 8-7 in Cincinnati, but rebounded to beat Florida 7-5 on Thursday, with Jurrjens getting the victory despite allowing five runs on 11 hits in six innings.
Jurrjens is 1-3 with a 4.84 ERA in six starts on the highway this year, and this will mark the rookie’s first career start against the Cubs.
Dempster has helped the Cubs post a 10-3 record in his 13 outings this year, giving up three earned runs or fewer in 11 of the contests, and he’s 3-1 with a no-decision in his last five outings. On Thursday at Dodger Stadium, he gave up three runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings and left with a 4-3 lead, but he ended up with a no-decision in a 5-4 Chicago victory.
Dempster has been a monster at Wrigley this season, going 7-0 with a 3.10 ERA, with one no-decision in a game the Cubs won. However, Atlanta has been a thorn in his side over the years, as the veteran has gone 1-10 with a 5.65 ERA in 24 career appearances (13 starts).
The Braves are mired in several losing funks, including 16-36 in their last 52 on the road (7-22 on the highway this year), 8-23 on the road against right-handed starters, 1-5 against winning teams, 1-6 against the N.L. Central and 1-5 in Jurrjens’ last six road starts. But with Jurrjens hurling, they are on a 5-0 tear against winning teams.
The Cubs sport a perfect 9-0 mark with Dempster starting at home and they’re 5-1 in his last six starts overall. Furthermore, Chicago is 41-16 in its last 57.
The under for Atlanta is 5-1 in Jurrjens’ last six road starts, but the over is on a 4-0 run in his last four outings overall. With Dempster going for Chicago, the under is 4-1 in the last five overall, but the over is 4-1 in his last five Wednesday stints.
With last night’s game easily topping the total, the over is now 10-4-1 in the last 15 contests between these two teams. On the other hand, for Atlanta, the under is on streaks of 39-18-3 overall, 24-7-1 on the road, 21-5-1 on the highway against right-handers, 4-1-1 in the second game of a series and 17-6-2 against the N.L. Central. Likewise, the under for Chicago is on runs of 5-1 against the N.L. East, 5-1 at home against righties and 6-3 overall at Wrigley.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (33-32) at Oakland Athletics (34-30)
Rookie right-hander Darrell Rasner (3-3, 2.58 ERA) is set to toe the slab for the Yankees against fellow righty Justin Duchscherer (5-4, 2.32) and the Athletics in the second game of a three-game set at McAfee Coliseum.
New York grinded out a 3-1 victory at Oakland on Tuesday, improving to 5-2 in its last seven games. As for the A’s, they’ve lost three of their last four, but they’re still 9-5 in their last 14 home contests.
This is the first series of the season between these two teams. Oakland took four of six from New York in 2007, going 2-1 at home and 2-1 on the road in a pair of three-game series. The A’s are still 8-3 in the last 11 clashes with the Yanks, and they are 4-2 in the last five at home against New York.
Rasner, who has only been in the rotation since May 4, has lost three in a row after winning his first three starts. On Friday against the Royals, he pitched eight solid innings, allowing two runs on nine hits, but the Yanks gave him little offensive support in a 2-1 loss. Rasner has gone at least six innings in five of his six starts, with Friday’s outing being his longest of the year.
Rasner is 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA in three road starts this season. Also, he got a no-decision in his lone career start against Oakland, a 4-3 New York road win last season in which he allowed all three runs (all unearned) on five hits in 5 1/3 innings.
Duchscherer has gotten a decision in all nine of his starts this year. Last Wednesday against Detroit, he yielded two runs on three hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 10-2 blowout win, curbing a 1-3 slide in his previous four starts. Duchscherer has given up two runs or fewer in eight of his nine start this season, and he’s got a 1.74 ERA in his past three outings (four runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings).
Duchscherer is 4-0 with a minuscule 1.69 ERA at the Coliseum this season, but he’s 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in seven career relief appearances against New York.
The Yankees are on a 9-0 tear against the American League West and are on further hot runs of 5-1 in Game 2 of a series, 39-15 on Wednesday and 8-3 against winning teams. However, they are 1-4 in Rasner’s last five road starts dating to 2007.
The A’s are 11-5 in their last 16 against the A.L. East, but they are 2-7 in their last nine against right-handers and 1-5 in their last six at home against righties.
The “under” has been the play in each of Rasner’s last five outings overall and five of his last six on the road. Also, the under is 5-1 in Duchscherer’s last six starts for Oakland.
Additionally, for New York, the under is on runs of 13-5 on the road, 20-8-3 on Wednesday and 6-2 against winning teams. The under is also 7-3-1 in Oakland’s last 11 Wednesday contests, but the over is 5-3-1 in its last nine overall. Finally, the over is 9-5 in the last 15 head-to-head clashes between these squads at the Coliseum, though last night’s battled stayed well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND
Gametimepicks.com
Alex Smart
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels Under7.0
The visiting Tampa Bay Rays and their hosts the LA Angels will both be sending the aces of their staff, to the hill, and two of the best hurlers in the American League. The Rays starting pitcher this afternoon Scott Kazmir (6-1, 1.40 ERA) is in top form , after winning 6 straight decisions. The 24 year old right hander is 2-1 along with a 3.26 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Angels. His pitching opponent from the Halos, former Cy Young award winner, John Lackey (2-1, 1.70 ERA) is also in great current form, and off a dominating effort last time out, as he set down 15 straight As in 7 over powering innings. Lackey is 8-1 along with a tight 2.35 ERA in this series vs the Rays spanning 10 starts. Both pitchers are supported by, average at best bullpens, but Im expecting these two work horses will go deep in what will I predict be a low scoring pitchers duel. Final notes & Key Trends: The Angles have gone under in 20 of their L29 games with a total of between 7 and 8.5. Under is 10-2-1 in Kazmirs L13 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 6-0 in Angels L6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Under is 10-1 in Lackeys L11 starts overall. Play Under
Marc Lawrence
PLAY ON: PHILADELPHIA PHILLES (MLB)
Cole Hamels is off an impressive outing last Thursday afternoon in Philadelphia shuting down the Reds and record breaking Ken Griffey. Hamels was a follow-up to back-to-back purged outings in which he threw with a "dead arm" syndrome, a common denominator at this time of year.
With the Phillies coming in off a lackluster effort last night, we fully expect a rebound effort here. Furthermore, Philly carries a perfect 100% record of 7-0 against LHP into this classic Wednesday showdown.
Robert Ross
Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins
Florida Marlins
Florida hits a lot of home runs so they can score quickly. Philly starter Hamels gives up some homers and although it shows just three allowed this year in five road starts last three road starts were against Houston, Washington and the Giants who aren't big home run teams. FLORIDA is 32-23 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
Take Florida!
Scott Spreitzer
Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
I'm wagering on the Astros in their Wednesday night meeting with the Brewers. Milwaukee is in one of the worst team situations of the season tonight. The Brewers are 3-11 and score an average of only 3.75 runs per game in road night games against righthanders, following last night's 6-1 loss. That spells serious trouble facing Brandon Backe in this venue. The Houston righty is 3-1 in five home starts this season, allowing just 10 earned runs and 26 base runners in 31 innings of work. That's a 2.90 ERA to go along with a decent 1.35 WHIP and .230 BAA. Manny Parra counters for the visitors. He looked well in his last two games, but both of those starts came at Miller Park. Parra has been a completely different story away from home. The southpaw has lasted just 18 innings in his last four road starts. In fact, he's not an innings-eater at all away from home, where he's been tagged for a 6.95 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, and hefty, .352 BAA in five starts. The Brewers are just 14-21 away from home overall, while the Astros protect home field well. I'm laying the short price with Houston on Wednesday.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Cleveland w/Byrd vs Blackburn.
Note: When the Tribe takes on Nick Blackburn and the Twins at Progressive Field Wednesday night they will send Paul Byrd to the mound knowing his 2.90 ERA at home this season if a full 3 runs better than his 5.95 road ERA.
On the flip side, Blackburn's 6.96 road ERA if a full 4 runs worse than his 2.90 home ERA this year. Look for the Indians to improve to 8-2 at home on Wednesdays here tonight.
We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland with Byrd vs. Blackburn.
Big Al McMordie
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Chicago White Sox
At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Detroit Tigers. Welcome to 2008's version of the most surprising team in baseball. The White Sox are 37-27 and in first place in the AL Central Division by a whopping 6 1/2 games. They have a great record at home (20-9), but can also hold their own on the road. The Sox are completely healthy right now (no injuries reported on the web site currently) and playing with a level of intensity that few teams in the league can match. In other words, they're pretty much the polar opposite of the Detroit Tigers. Detroit has a slew of injuries, the latest being the loss of one-time ace righthander Jeremy Bonderman to elbow surgery for the entire remainder of the season. Regular DH Gary Sheffield is also out with an oblique injury and the remaining squad is playing with anything but intensity it seems. If there's any good news, it may be that current ace righthander (and tonight's starter) Justin Verlander has pitched much better of late after getting off to a disasterous start to the '08 campaign. But Verlander has very little to show for his improved form as he is 0-2 (with a 3.43 ERA) over his last 3 outings, and during that time the Tigers are winless as well at 0-3. Chicago is 19-8 in its last 27 games and 23-10 in its last 33 meetings in Detroit. Take the Sox.
JB's Computer Picks
Toronto Blue Jays -145
St. Louis Cardinals +115
Arizona Diamondbacks -140
Chicago Cubs -150
Chris Jordan
Milwaukee at ATLANTA -125
It’s time to get back on the winning track, as Brandon Backe followed two straight winning games with two consecutive losing starts. And this is the perfect game to avenge those losses. The right-hander faced the Brewers at Minute Maid Park on May 3, earning the win after holding Milwaukee to two runs over 5-2/3 innings. Manny Parra got revenge on May 30, as the Crew won 5-1. Now it’s Backe’s turn.
The Brewers have never really been successful in Houston, as they came into this series on a 19-43 skid the last 62 times they’ve played there. Milwaukee is also mired in a 2-5 skid in Parra’s last seven road starts, and is 7-15 in its last 22 games played on hump day. Conversely, the Astros are 5-0 in Backe’s last five home starts against winning teams, 25-6 in his last 31 home starts and came into this series on a 13-6 run at home. Lay the chalk with the ‘Stros, as they roll to an easy win in the third meeting between these two hurlers.
2* ASTROS
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco -120)at COLORADO
Yankees winner Tuesday in Oakland makes us 15-4 with our last 19 FREE plays. Today we'll jump over to the National League with a comp play on the Giants as they take on the Rockies in Colorado.
Got a red-hot pitcher in the Giants' Tim Lincecum (8-1, 2.15 ERA) going up against an ice-cold pitcher in the Rockies' Ubaldo Jimenez (1-6, 5.43). So it's a no-brainer if you ask me, we're going to lay the chalk and play the Giants in this one.
San Francisco is 9-3 in Lincecum's 12 starts this season and he is an amazing 6-0 on the road with a 1.65 ERA. The Giants have won his last four starts and in his last two he's given up a combined two runs on nine hits in 14 innings in wins over the Padres at home and the Nationials on the road.
Lincecum has seen the Rockies twice this season and he's given up an identical three runs in each game, including back on May 20 when the Giants went to Colorado and won 6-5.
Colorado has struggled all season and especially with Jimenez on the hill as they are 1-10 in his last 11 starts. The Rockies' lone win came on Friday when he gave up four runs in six inning but they beat the Brewers 6-4. He's made three career starts against San Francisco and the Rockies are 0-3.
We'll go with the hot pitcher in this one as the Giants and Lincecum get another win over the Rockies. Play San Francisco.
3* SAN FRANCISCO
EZWINNERS
2 STAR: (917) SEATTLE (+$125) over Toronto
(Listing Hernandez only)
(Risking $200 to win $250)
2 STAR: (923) MINNESOTA (+$124) over Cleveland
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $248)
1 STAR: (925) CHICAGO (-$101) over Detroit
(Listing Vazquez only)
(Risking $101 to win $100)
1 STAR: (927) TEXAS (-$118) over Kansas City
(Listing Padilla only)
(Risking $118 to win $100)
PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Selection
Chicago Cubs -1.5
Dave Cokin
TEX Rangers and KC Royals
Take TEX Rangers
Kyle Davies has had two pretty nice starts for the Royals since his recall from the minors. But I'm not buying this as much more than a momentary blip. Davies lacks the command to succeed regularly in the majors and he's facing a dynamic attack tonight as he tries his luck with the Rangers. Texas is a robust 10-3 when Vicente Padilla takes the mound, and I like the veteran righty to do well enough to register another win tonight. The Rangers are the choice.
Jim Feist
LA Dodgers and SD Padres
Take Under
A couple of punchless offensive teams meet here. LA is 12th in the NL in runs scored, while the pitiful Padres are dead last. San Diego is a great pitcher's park and both starters have been hot. Dodger righty Chad Billingsley has a 3.00 ERA his last three starts and the team is on a 3-1 under the total run his last 4 starts. San Diego lefty Randy Wolf has a 1.89 ERA his last 3 starts, a perfect 3-0 under the total. In fact, the Padres are 22-13 under the total at home. Play the Dodgers/Padres under the total!
DUNKEL
LA Dodgers at San Diego
The Padres had their win streak snapped at five straight last night, but look to get back into the win column today against a Dodgers team that is just 4-6 on the road with the line listed between -100 and -125. San Diego is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105). Here are all of today's games.
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 11
Game 901-902: Washington at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 14.508; Pittsburgh (Snell) 13.492
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Over
Game 903-904: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Looper) 15.041; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.797
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under
Game 905-906: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.467; Florida (Miller) 15.990
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+145); Over
Game 907-908: Arizona at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Webb) 14.228; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.234
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Over
Game 909-910: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.312; Cubs (Dempster) 14.315
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); N/A
Game 911-912: Milwaukee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 15.937; Houston (Backe) 14.426
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+100); Under
Game 913-914: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.731; Colorado (Jimenez) 14.941
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Over
Game 915-916: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.866; San Diego (Wolf) 15.781
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Over
Game 917-918: Seattle at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.727; Toronto (Marcum) 14.148
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Under
Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 16.020; LA Angels (Lackey) 14.662
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Over
Game 921-922: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Olson) 15.181; Boston (Colon) 16.243
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Over
Game 923-924: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.156; Cleveland (Byrd) 13.994
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Under
Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Vazquez) 15.281; Detroit (Verlander) 15.629
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under
Game 927-928: Texas at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 13.740; Kansas City (Davies) 15.518
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Over
Game 929-930: NY Yankees at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Rasner) 14.596; Oakland (Duchscherer) 16.450
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Under