Ben Burns
Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
While this selection came up just short of 'making the cut,' for my strong Wednesday "premium" card, I still believe that the Phillies will have an advantage and that they offer us solid value. The Marlins took yesterday's opener, a matchup which featured a pair of right-handed starters. A pair of southpaws toe the rubber for this evening's game though and that should provide the visitors with a significant edge.
For starters, the Phillies have pounded left-handers. In fact, they're a perfect 7-0 their last seven games against southpaws, including a 7-5 win over tonight's starter, Andrew Miller, on June 1. The Phillies won those seven games by a whopping combined score of 72-20! They're now 14-4 their last 18 against left-handers and 16-7 on the season. They've averaged 6.7 runs in those games with an on-base-percentage of .353.
Conversely, the Marlins are managing just 4.2 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, hitting .242 with an on-base-percentage of only .304. They're 2-4 their last six against left-handers and 8-10 on the season. Looking back a bit further and we find them at a money-burning 49-65 (-11.4) against left-handers since the start of the 2006 season.
In addition to the fact that they hit better against left-handers, the visitors also have a "better" left-hander going tonight than their hosts do. Cole Hamels went through a rare rough patch recently and he was roughed up by the Marlins on 5/31. However, he's since bounced back in a big way, tossing a complete game 3-hit shutout last time out, a 5-0 win over the Reds. For the season, Hamels is 6-4 with a respectable 3.36 ERA and 1.066 WHIP. On the other hand, Miller has an ugly 5.66 ERA and 1.712 WHIP on the season. Those numbers are even slightly worse in his home starts, too. He's failed to pitch more than five innings in any of his last three starts, recording a dismal 6.92 ERA and 1.923 WHIP during that stretch. Not surprisingly, he Marlins lost all three of those games, getting outscored 23-11.
Despite their victory yesterday, the Marlins are still just 5-9 their last 14 games. The Phillies remain a healthy 4-1 their five games and 15-5 their last 20. They're still 4-2 the last six games against the Marlins and I look for them to even the current series up this evening. Consider laying the price with PHILADELPHIA
Ted Sevransky
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Under
REASON FOR PICK: It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to recognize the prevailing trend for the Toronto Blue Jays – this team is a long term Under machine, 40-24 to the Under so far this season. And we’re getting a break on the price to take the Blue Jays Under the total once again today, after the linesmakers adjusted upwards following a stretch of five Overs in six games last week. Facing Seattle’s punchless lineup (less than four runs per game on the road; eight runs scored in their last four games on this road trip) we can expect the underrated Shawn Marcum to continue his run of dominance: seven quality starts in his last eight outings, allowing less than a baserunner per inning for the entire season. And the strong bullpen behind him is fresh and ready after Dustin McGowan’s complete game five hitter against the Mariners last night.
Seattle’s Felix Hernandez is an Under machine himself: 11-2 to the Under in his 13 starts. Hernandez is coming off a pair of brilliant performances, shutting down the Red Sox and the Tigers in 13 innings of scoreless baseball, with more strikeouts (12) than baserunners allowed (eight hits, three walks). Hernandez’s career splits show that opposing hitters struggle to match up with him during daytime starts, allowing fewer baserunners and a lower batting average against than he does at night. Put it all together and we can expect another low scoring ballgame at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Take the Under.
Wunderdog
St. Louis at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -147
Johny Cueto made a dramatic debut and then the Reds proceeded to lose his next five starts. Since then, he has gotten his swagger back and the Reds have won five of his last seven. The Reds have also been a top team at home with a 19-11 mark. Brandon Looper is in the midst of a huge struggle right now, much like Cueto was earlier. His ERA after starting in the 2's has swollen to nearly five and the Cards aren't winning his starts after beginning 3-0. Good spot for home-tough Reds, with a Confident Cueto on the hill.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Nats/Pirates UNDER 9 Runs
Lannan has been an Unders machine for the Nats and we'll take some of that action tonight. The Under is 4-0 in Lannan's last 4 starts overall and 6-0 in Lannan's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Under is also 12-3 in the Nationals last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter and 8-1 in the Nationals last 9 games following a win. The Under is 6-2 in the Pirates last 8 overall, 4-1 in Snell's last 5 home starts, and 5-2-1 in the Pirates last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Under tonight.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians -127
Minnesota is 0-10 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons. Paul Byrd gives up his fair share of home runs, but the Twins aren’t a power team and don’t take advantage of it. Byrd is 2-0 through 5 home starts this season with a 1.89 ERA. He simply does not get beaten at home in 2008. Nick Blackburn is 1-2 with a 5.36 ERA on the road for Minnesota. Byrd is 10-3 with a 3.66 ERA in his career against Minnesota. He has allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts against the Twins. 4 earned runs through his last 22 innings pitched against Minnesota shows why I am all over the Indians at home today. Also, Byrd is 27-9 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse since 1997. Cash in with Cleveland as the favorite.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Toronto Blue Jays -136
Toronto takes on one of the worst teams in the league in the Seattle Mariners Wednesday. Seattle is 9-26 (-19.4 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The Mariners are just 4-16 (-12.3 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season. Also, Seattle is 2-13 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game this season. Toronto is 14-4 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is 6-22 (-15.6 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are scoring just 3.4 runs per game over their last 7 contests. Shaun Marcum is undefeated with a 1.69 ERA over his last 3 starts. Take the Blue Jays on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on New York Yankees +110
You won’t find the Yankees at a much better price than the one we are getting tonight. Darrell Rasner is no pushover as he is 3-3 with a 2.58 ERA on the season. He deserves more wins with the way he has been pitching. Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (OAKLAND) - allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL). This is a 71-47 ML System hitting 60.2% over the last 5 seasons. The Yankees are scoring 5.4 runs per game over their last 7 games so Rasner should get just enough run support to pick up the victory. Bet the Yankees on the road.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Reds -135
The Reds have been solid behind Cueto this season and I fully expect that to continue tonight. The Reds are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record, 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter, and an impressive 13-3 in their last 16 home games. The Reds are 5-0 in Cueto's last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 4-0 in Cueto's last 4 home starts. The Cardinals are only 3-7 in Looper's last 10 starts during game 2 of a series and with the way the Reds have been hitting righties, I expect them to explode for a lot of runs tonight.
Scott Ferrall
NL FREE B's FOR WED
Padres -105 over Dodgers--Wolf over Billingsley in San Diego. SD has won 5 of 6 but lost to LA Tues. SD is 5-3 during their 10gm homestand. Wolf has allowed only two runs over his last 2 starts. He beat Johan Santan last Fri. Billingsley hasn't won in his last 3 starts.
MILWAUKEE (even odds) over Houston--Manny Parra upsets Brnadon backe at Minute Maid Park. The Brewers have lost 3 of 4 affter winning 6 straight. Parra has allowed one earned run or NONE in his last four starts.
Florida +140 over Philly--Andrew Miller gets the Marlins within two games of Phils in the NL East. They beat Hamels last wk, so why not again tonight ? The Marlins hit the ball--Hanly Ramerez is hitting .467 against Hamels. TAKE THE UNDER--Miller allowed 3 runs to Phils on June 1 and Hamels doesn't give up a lot. He's 2-3 in five starts vs Florida
AL FREE B's FOR WED
INDIANS -145 over Twins--Cleveland got the 1-0 shutout from Sabathia Tues and Minney is slumping ass--they've dropped 6 straight games-OUCH ! RUN TO THE WINDOW ON THE TRIBE AND MR.BYRD, who's 10-3 lifetime vs the Twins
WHITE SOX +110 over Tigers--Verlander blows and Vasquez will have this shitty Detroit team eating out of his palms. Chicago's won 7 of 8. Verlander is 1-6 in 10 starts vs ChiSox in his career. POUNCE ON THE SOX
Rangers -105 over Royals--Why not two straight over KC ? Padilla gets his 8th win of yr over Davies. Padilla's won 5 of last 6 starts. The Rangers have won 10 of his 13 starts. KC has won only 4 of last 22 games and are 5 gms under .500 at Kauffman Stadium. TAKE THE UNDER 9 RUNS--they scored a lot Tues, but not tonight. Both starters don't give up more than 4 runs
Ben Burns
MLB 4* Mariners/Jays Over 7.5
2-Minute Warning
Astros
SPORTS KINGZ
TORONTO -140
WHITE SOX EV
CUBS -160
JAMES PATRICK
Nationals vs. Pirates
Our selection in National League Baseball action is Washington-Pittsburgh OVER the TOTAL as we note that 8 of past 10 in the Steel City have gone Over the Total and the Nationals have gone Over in 11 of 16.
Tom Freese
Atlanta at Chicago
The Cubs are red hot winning 12 of their last 15 games. The are 14-5 their last 19 games vs. righty starters. Chicago is 9-0 the last 9 starts made by Ryan Dempster and they are 48-22 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. Atlanta starter Jair Jurrjens is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners as innings pitched and still managed to get the win. The Braves are 8-23 their last 31 road games vs. righty starters and they are 1-5 their last 6 road games with Jair Jurrjens on the mound. PLAY ON CHICAGO
GINA
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
The Atlanta Braves have dropped five of their last six games and have played awful away from home, 1-7 in their last eight road games, a nasty 7-22 this season. Opposite, the Chicago Cubs have won 12 of their last 13 games and have played sound at home, 5-0 in its last five at Wrigley Field, 27-8 this year, major-league best home record.
Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens (6-3, 3.77) has won his last two decisions, but is just 1-3 with a 4.84 ERA in six road starts this season. The right-hander will make his first appearance against the Cubs. The Braves have lost five of Jurrjens' last 6 starts on the road.
Chicago's Ryan Dempster is 1-10 with a 5.65 ERA in 24 career appearances, including 13 starts against the Braves, but hasn't faced them since 2003. Dempster is 7-0 with a 3.10 ERA at home this season and Chicago has won the right-hander's last 9 starts at home.
Go wit the Cubs against the major-league's worst road team, the Atlanta Braves.
Chicago Cubs -150