Chris James Sports
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Under
After putting up all those runs last night, I don't think Toronto will bring the same bats tonight, atleast not in the same fashion they did last night! And you can count that Halladay will make it tough on Cincinnati to cross the plate! The under is 53-25-3 in Toronto's last 81 games after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game. The pitchers certainly help the situation tonight as well. The under is 8-0 in Harang's last 8 starts in Game 2 of a series and is 13-2 in his last 15 interleague starts! Harang also deserves the low total of 7.5 as his last 7 starts with a total set between 7.0-8.5 have resulted in the under 6 times. The Under is 4-0-1 in Halladay's last 5 starts as a home favorite of 151 to 200. Even the umpire brings a trend of the under hitting for us tonight a the under is 5-0 in Rapuano's last 5 games behind the plate of an interleague game! Let's cash in the Under tonight!
Wunderdog
Colorado at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +105
The Royals are a young team and carry the trademark of a young team. They are very fragile and that allows for some real highs and lows. This team has dropped seven in a row and 12 in a row have now won nine of their last 10 games scoring almost 6.5 runs per game. The Royals are as hot as it gets! We aren't sure how you don't pull the trigger on the hottest team in baseball playing at home as a dog. We sure can't resist. When you take into account this Rockies team is built for playing at home and always has been. Playing on the road has never been an asset to this team. This couldn't be highlighted more than by the fact that this team is now 6-22 in their last 28 road efforts and listed here as a favorite. We can't buy it, and the Royals get the call here.
J. R. Miller
GIANTS +1.5 -126 at Indians (Zito-Sowers) (OR +161)
BLUEJAYS -165 over Reds (Halladay-Harang) (OR -1.5 +132)
REDSOX -148 over Diamondbacks (Wakefield-Johnson)
CUBS -175 over Orioles (Lilly-Burres)
ROYALS +108 over Rockies (Hochevar-Cook)
In the Giants/Indians' game, we like the moneyline on the Giants (+161) about as much as the runline (-126), and in the Reds/Bluejays' game we like the runline on the Bluejays (+132) about as much as the moneyline (-165). Six of one, half-a-dozen of the other. Here in the newsletter we took the conservative choices.
If you agree with these three big moneyline favorites today, (the Bluejays, Redsox and Cubs), you might consider using a 2- or 3-bet parlay. If you do use a parlay, remember to risk the same as you risk on individual bets. If you risk "100" on single bets, be sure to risk "100" on your parlays.
Jeff Scott Sports
2 Unit Play Houston / Texas Under 9.5
The Under is 8-1 in Feldmans last 9 starts on grass and 5-1 in his last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, while the Under is 21-5 in Astros last 26 during game 2 of a series and 6-0 in Oswalts last 6 starts vs. Rangers. Roy Oswalt is beginning to turn the corner back to respecability as he has posted a 3.24 ERA in his last 5 starts, including a 2.84 ERA in his last 2 home starts. Roy's home games have been a bit high scoring, but his cames overall have put up 9.1 rpg, in cluding 7.8 rpg in his last 5 starts. The Astro's have had problems scoring of late as they are averaging just 3.1 rpg in their last 8 games, plus they have averaged just 3.5 rpg in interleague play. The Stros scopre over 5 rpg for Roy, but overall they only put 4.1 rpg on the board for him. The Rangers come in averaging 4.9 rpg in their last 10 games and 5.2 rpg o the road, but they have problems scoring with Scott Feldman on the mound as they have put up just 3.8 rpg in his overall starts, including a measly 2.5 rpg in his road starts and 3.4 rpg in his night starts. Scott's games average 9.1 rpg overall, 8 rpg on the road and 8.2 rpg at night. Scott has been rocked on the road, posting a 7.33 ERA, but he is facing a struggling offense and should enable him to keep the score down, while a rejuvinated Roy Oswalt should be able to keep a Texas team, that might be without Hamiton from scoring more than 3 or 4 runs. Last night these 2 teams put up 7 runs and I see that same total being scored tonight.
Winners Edge
Brewers/ Braves under 8.5 even , 2 units
Florida Marlins + 120 , 2 units
Oakland A's - 130 , 1 unit
Houston Astros - 145 , 1 unit
SAPKOWSKI
Premium
BOS Red Sox
CHI Cubs
Free picks
COL Rockies
TOR Blue Jays
Note:I like both premium as RL, but for myself as pro capper, priority is deliver winners and I don't want surprise so that why I'm not giving both as RL, but if anyone like a bit more risk you can try play in my opinion both as RL, both team are very effective VS. LHP, and both team no matter in witch streak they are, playing very well at home.
Tips
For Euro 2008 play German is low line but very strong bet, turkey missing 6 first team players because of cards and Injuries, and in fact German are much better team and favorite to win Euro, now line is -250
Larry Ness
15* MARLINS
WEEKLY WIPEOUT - ASTROS
LV INSIDER - PADRES
LARRY NESS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
REASON FOR PICK: Philadelphia's high-powered lineup is "caught in neutral," as the team has scored a pathetic NINE runs in losing six consecutive games (1.5 RPG). While I'm always a little nervous about the idea of 'chasing' a team on a losing streak, I'm going to back the Phillies tonight, for a number of factors. For some reason, the Phillies have provided excellent run support all season for pitcher Kyle Kendrick, as despite his 5.06 ERA in 15 starts, the Phillies have gone 11-4 in his starts. More good news comes Philly's way in that the A's are just 7-12 at home vs right-handers in night games, while averaging a modest 4.0 RPG. The Phillies just may break out of their slump tonight, as they will be facing lefty Greg Smith. While Smith has done a solid job for the A's this year (4-5 with a 3.51 ERA in 14 starts / team is 8-6), the Phillies are 17-10 vs lefties in '08 (6.0 RPG), including a 7-2 mark in road night games, averaging 6.3 RPG. Take the Phils.
DAVE MALINSKY 4*
New York Yankees @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
Simply outstanding value here in a game in which market perceptions hold far too much weight vs. the actual realities of the matchup.
Joba Chamberlain carries a significant reputation, and in time he has a chance to be special as a MLB starter. But it has only been a 1.53 WHIP through his first four attempts to begin a game, and that is despite facing weak competition - Toronto (without Vernon Wells), Kansas City, and San Diego at home, and the lone road test being at Houston. And while he gave up only one run in six innings vs. the Astros he labored throughout, allowing 10 of the 26 batters that he faced to reach base. He does not bring enough to push the Yankees into this price range, particularly because his own inability to bridge a game to Mariano Rivera forces the erratic middle relief corps into play. And in a game in which the offensive production will also be difficult to come by, it gets even tougher to justify this line.
We have cashed a pair of Under tickets in Zach Duke’s last two home starts, which came against non-division opponents Arizona and Toronto. There is something significant about the fact that those teams lacked experience against him, as do the Yankees. He is the classic type of lefty that will never cause the radar gun to blink with any alarm, but can consistently get outs against impatient hitters that reach out for borderline pitches. His velocity makes the pitches look hittable, but the fact that they touch the black part of the plate with such regularity turns aggressive swings into weak contact outs. You just do not square the ball up against a pitcher that has allowed only five home runs in 92 innings, while also only walking 25. The Yankees can fall into the same traps that the Blue Jays (with Wells, unlike Chamberlain’s outing against them) and Diamondbacks did, continuing the New York issues against left-handers that have been a problem all season. And with Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui sidelined again by injury, and the lack of a DH forcing the weak glove of Jason Giambi onto the field, this is anything but an imposing Yankee lineup right now.
With Monday off, and having a big working margin last night, the Pirates bring all key bullpen arms rested and ready. That means plenty of late-inning options for John Russell as his confident team (19-9 in their last 28 home games), playing in front of an energizing sold-out PNC Park, grabs a win at a price that is far too high.
LT Profits
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros Under 9.5
Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros appears to have straightened himself out while Scott Feldman of the Texas Rangers has kept his team in every game, so look for a relatively low scoring game here.
Oswalt has actually been a disappointment this season at 6-7 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, but he has turned things around lately. Oswalt has allowed three earned runs or less in five straight starts, and he has been closer to his normal level with an excellent 2.66 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his last three outings. He is looking to redeem himself for a terrible outing at Texas earlier this season, and his current form cycle suggests that he could get some revenge here.
Now Feldman may be just 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA, but he does have a nice 1.26 WHIP and he has allowed three earned runs or less in three of his last four starts. He has also been an Under-machine, as the Under is a lucrative 8-2 in all of his starts. He should be doubly tough facing the Astros for the first time, especially since Houston is batting a woeful .215 vs. right-handed pitching over the last 10 games.
The Under is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings here in Houston, and we look for that to continue tonight.
Pick: Rangers, Astros Under 9.5
David Malinsky
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays 3*
The Toronto Blue Jays lost Roy Halladay’s last home start. That is news. What it brings us tonight is arguably the best pitcher in the sport working with a determined focus, and a rejuvenated team behind him. And that means an excellent opportunity to step in.
Toronto is an amazing 42-11 in Halladay’s last 53 home starts. Only once in that entire span did the Blue Jays lose consecutive home starts by their ace. And in the 10 starts at home after losing the previous outing through this stretch, Halladay worked to a sizzling 1.64 over 76.2 innings. That is correct - he averaged nearly eight innings per start in those games. But that is not out of the ordinary for him, and while his 2.90 ERA over 114.2 innings has been eclipsed by a few other performers this season, note that he has been even better than that number indicates - of the 126 pitchers that have worked at last 60 innings so far, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #9. He also can be dominating against teams that lack experience against him and the Reds have precious little of that - no member of last night’s starting lineup has more than three career at-bats vs. the Toronto right-hander.
Making this path easier is the new feeling around the Blue Jay clubhouse, with an under-achieving offense finding its groove again the last two days, and with last night’s return of Cito Gaston to Toronto providing a special spark - they banged out a season-high of 22 hits, with every position producing at least one run or rbi, and six different players had at least one extra-base hit. That adrenaline can easily carry over against the struggling Aaron Harang, who has worked to an ugly 1-6/4.88 tune on the road this season, and has lost his confidence in a dismal current slump.
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics 4*
Yesterday we took advantage of a bad read by the betting markets, who made a major move behind a slumping Philadelphia team to the point at which the Phillies were actually favored on this field at first pitch. Now the value is outstanding to step in once again.
No team in the Major’s is on a longer slide than the current 0-6 Philadelphia run, and it has not been a case of bad bounces - they have been out-scored by 20 runs in that span. It has been a case of both the offense (keyed by Chase Utley’s dismal 1-29 slide) and the pitching both breaking down, and it does not get any easier for them in their first look at Greg Smith. Smith brings us excellent value because his 3.51 has only been able to produce a 4-5 personal W/L tag (note that the A’s are 8-6 in all of his starts), and also note that he has performed to the same pattern that we see often from young left-handers - opponents have had a difficult time reading him on the first look. It has been a solid 2.84 so far this season against teams that had never faced him before. And with arguably the deepest bullpen in the Major’s behind him, by the time that the Phillies get comfortable in the box against his stuff it will already have been mission accomplished.
The flip side of that value equation is Kyle Kendrick. he sports a 6-3 record despite a 5.06 allowance, which means that he has been far more lucky than good. And this can be his own personal nightmare of a matchup. Kendrick sports one of the biggest left/right bias counts of any pitchers in the game through his young career, with left-handers rapping him to a .328 count, vs. .244 for right-handers. Not only can Oakland load up from that side, but the A’s will bring that unique patience to the batters box to create even more frustrations - last night they coaxed 108 pitches out of the precise Jamie Moyer in 6.2 innings, and ultimately he wore down. Having fought their way through against a crafty left-hander, that offense now gets to face the ideal batting practice guy for their swings.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
PICK: Under 4*
It should not be any surprise that we are getting behind Roy Oswalt and Scott Feldman here, a pair of performers that bring much more to the table than the marketplace realizes. And with some key offensive injuries clouding the picture, it is even easier to pull the trigger.
Two weeks ago we wrote an “Ace Report” column on Oswalt, which focused on how a bullpen session had turned his game around. We lost a difficult 6* Under ticket against him against the Yankees when a bobble by Miguel Tejada turned into eight runs, but were able to come right back with a 5* Under on him at Tampa Bay in his last outing. Now he brings that momentum to his home mound with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and we absolutely get the best of it in terms of value - when a guy has gone 29-7/2.40 in this ballpark in the three seasons heading into 2008, his current 5.48 ERA is absolutely headed for a correction. And the fact that he lost to the Rangers in Arlington earlier creates even more spark. But Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley were major factors in that game, and their absence severely hampers the Texas attack here.
Meanwhile has anyone pitched better without any notice at all than Scott Feldman? He shows up with just a single win beside his name this season, but has worked at least six full innings in eight of his nine starts, while going five in the other. He has worked to a solid 4.31 tune in that span despite being in a hitter’s park for five of the outings, and he shows the stuff to be able to compete here. Instead of the Arlington heat it is the air conditioning of Minute Maid Park, where these two teams were sitting at 2-1 into the bottom of the 8th inning last night, despite each having a weaker starter on the mound.
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals
PICK: Los Angeles Angels 3*
In the current edition of “Thinking Outside the Box”, we deal with Tim Redding’s rather remarkable season to-date, and here we have an outstanding opportunity to step in. We not only get the much better team, starting pitcher, and bullpen at a fair price, but also great timing as well.
Redding has been a a slightly above average pitcher this season, with a 4.12 ERA against a difficult schedule. But despite pitching for arguably the worst offense in the game, he has managed to pitch the Nationals to a 13-3 record in his 16 starts. In all other games they are 17-46. What are the odds of a 17-46 team going 13-3 behind a guy working to a 4.12 tune? Rather astronomical. And in the current run its has stretched the laws of baseball and logic even more - Redding has worked at a 5.71 clip over his last six starts, yet Washington won every game. What all that does is buy us about a quarter in terms of where this line really should be.
The Angels provide us with the ideal opponent to take advantage. Their 26-12 road tally is by far the best in the Major’s, and what we saw from Ervin Santana in his last outing at Philadelphia was exactly what we needed to see. Off of a stretch in which he had lost his way a bit, facing a tough offense in a hitter’s park could have been a nightmare for him. His major problem through his career has been giving up home runs on the road, and the Phillies are #2 at hitting balls into the seats. But Santana stifled them without an earned run over seven innings, with a dominating ratio of nine strikeouts vs. only two hits allowed. It also creates something most unexpected - this deep into the season, his road ERA is actually lower than his numbers from Anaheim. That means a great deal of confidence against a lineup that he can dominate, and with yesterday’s easy win bringing the entire bullpen in rested and ready the Nationals are hard-pressed to produce anything at all here.
Orioles (RL) at Cubs (RL)
PICK: Cubs (RL) 6*
There have not been many disappointing days for the Cubs at Wrigley this season - a 32-9 run pretty much sums it up. But Tuesday was such a game. They produced more base-runners than the Orioles, and had the only two home runs in the game. But what had been a solid defense hiccuped and allowed three unearned runs, and they failed to score despite having the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom of the 9th. That is the kind of win that not only stings, but also creates a bounce-back spark, and we believe that pieces are in place for that to happen in a major way. So on a warm evening with the wind in a favorable direction, we will call for the blowout here.
Asking for the Cubs to get a margin in general is not asking much - 24 of those 32 Wrigley wins have come by two runs or more. And of those they did not break open, several were played under colder temperatures with the wind blowing in. Now an offense that has tattooed left-handers this season gets to face the pedestrian offerings of Brian Burres, and Burres is in the wrong place at the wrong time in this setting. First we get value from his 6-5 personal record this season, but that carries no meaning. He has worked to an ugly 5.24 in compiling that mark, and his last two outings are a good example of the kind of luck that he has had - he lasted only 11.2 innings, allowing nine runs on 15 hits, including three home runs, and five walks. Yet he walked way with a ‘W’ each time. And over his last five starts it has been a hideous 10.27 ERA and 2.15 WHIP, with nine home runs allowed over 23.2 innings. Yet he actually got tagged with only one defeat in that span. He does not have the stuff to get the ball past quality hitters, with only 39 strikeouts in 80.2 innings, and in five of his last six starts has had more fly-ball outs than ground-outs. He is an awful matchup for this particular environment, and with the best arms from the Baltimore bullpen getting pushed to extremes last night (33 pitches for Jim Johnson and 30 for George Sherrill), the latter innings have a chance to be just as ugly.
The flip side of the value equation is Ted Lilly’s 7-5/4.71 in the pitching forms, which makes him look rather average. Those numbers do not tell the true story of his current stuff. He indeed got off to a bad start this season, but it has been a 7-2/3.53 over his last 11 starts, with a dominating ratio of 69 strikeouts vs. only 57 hits allowed in that span. The Cubs have won his last six Wrigley starts by a combined 19 runs, and the bullpen is also well-positioned behind him to handle the end-game. But we expect those bullpen innings to merely be mop-up, as they protect what should be a big lead.
VEGAS SNITCH
Euro 2008 Semis Turkey Game - Point Spread +1.5
Euro 2008 Semis Turkey Game - Point Spread +1
Euro 2008 Semis Turkey-Germany Game - Over 2.5
Euro 2008 Semis Turkey-Germany Game - Over 2
SEABASS
5 Mets Over (Comp)
10 Atlanta Over
20 Toronto
20 St Louis
30 Arizona
100 Cubs -1.5
100 Over Cleveland (Vegas Steam)
GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Current Line: -165 Over/Under: 9 Reason: The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Boston Red Sox will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Fenway Park in an interleague contest. The Diamondbacks will give the ball to starter Randy Johnson in this one. Lefthander Johnson is 4-5 this season with a 5.09 ERA. Johnson's opponent in this one will be Tim Wakefield. The Red Sox righthander has a 4.17 ERA to go along with a 4-5 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Red Sox listed as 165-moneyline favorites versus the Diamondbacks, while the game's total is sitting at 9. Jason Varitek's RBI-single in the bottom of the eighth inning lifted the Red Sox to a 5-4 win over the Diamondbacks on Tuesday night. Boston won as -175 home favorites as the game played under the 9.5-run total set by oddsmakers. Dustin Pedroia went 2-for-4 with a homer and two runs batted for the Red Sox, while Chris Smith picked up the win in relief of starter Justin Masterson for Boston. Chad Tracy was 2-for-3 with a three-run jack and four RBIs for Arizona, as Chad Qualls was tagged with the loss after giving up the single to Varitek in the eighth. Team records: Arizona: 40-38 SU Boston: 48-32 SU Arizona most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 8-2 Before playing Florida are 6-4 After playing Boston are 3-4 After a loss are 5-5 Boston most recently: When playing on Wednesday are 6-4 Before playing Houston are 2-1 After playing Arizona are 4-3 After a win are 4-6 A few trends to consider: Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games Boston is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games at home Boston is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take Houston (-145) over Texas
The word that I have is that Josh Hamilton will not be in the starting lineup tonight, leaving the Rangers without its top two hitters - Hamilton and Milton Bradley. I think that should be just the advantage that the Astros need tonight. Our star-crossed affair with Roy Oswalt this year continues. But he has looked sharper, he's won two of three, and he's still 47-17 in his last 64 home starts. The juice of this rivalry will bring out his best, and that should be enough against the shorthanded Rangers.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Colorado (-115) over Kansas City
Little bit of bad blood going on in this series and I think that Colorado will salvage one here. Aaron Cook has been getting roughed up a bit in his last eight starts (5.04 ERA) but I think that the Rockies will get to Luke Hochevar this evening and give Cook some run support. The Rockies are 11-4 in Cook's last 15 starts and I think we have solid odds in a pitching matchup today. This was going to be my GOTW, but I backed off when I coorelated Cook's ERA over the last two months with the Rockies interleague road record. Still like the play though.
2-Unit Play. Take New York Mets (-1.5, +100) over Seattle
If the Mets have any pride at all they will win this game by five runs. Miguel Batista – is he a closer? Is he a starter? Is he an alien? How about this: he’s a punching bag. He has an ERA of 6.26 on the season and is 0-6 with a 7.24 ERA in night games. Mets are a bad team. I’ve been saying that all year. But if New York can’t touch up this guy today – after getting humiliated yesterday – then they might as well mail it in for the rest of the year.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-115) over Los Angeles Dodgers
The White Sox passed the eyeball test last night. They look lik the much, much better team on the field last night and I think they are going to take it to the Dodgers again this evening. Gavin Floyd has been shaky on the road but I think he'll be able to handle a Dodgers lineup that just hasn't been hitting top-level right-handed pitching.
Today's totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 (+100) Minnesota at San Diego
Note: Play this game as 2.5-Unit or a 3-Unit play at 7.5.
Ump: Jerry Layne - 27.5 runners per game and 9.8 runs per game in L8. This is our against-the-grain total.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Baltimore at Chicago Cubs
Ump: Marvin Hudson - 11.1 runs per game in L10 and the wind blowing out with two fly ball pitchers, lefties, against two lineups that hammer southpaws.
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Seattle at New York Mets
Combined average run total of both starters in L3 starts is over two runs higher than the total, two lower-tier bullpens, and Scott Barry (9-4 'over' on the year) behind the plate.
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 (-105) Colorado at Kansas City
Ump: Angel Campos - averages 30 runners per game in the last seven games and 12 runs per game in his eight behind home plate (6-2 'over').
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 (-115) Philadelphia at Oakland
Ump: Adrian Johnson - has an unbelievably tight zone behind home plate. Avg. 31.4 base runners over his last seven games, and after two straight 'under' games is set for an 'over'.
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 Los Angeles Angels at Washington
Ump: Chad Fairchild. Tight zone. Averaged 21 runners and 10.0 runs in last seven games (5-2 'over')
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 10.0 San Francisco at Cleveland
No, I don't believe that we're going to hit every one of these totals. However, I am looking at a 5-2 evening out of this set and an overall profit. That, combined with a 3-1 night our of our sides should make for a tasty day. We have an excellent crop of 'over' umps behind the plates tonight and we have favorable weather conditions in Chicago, New York, and Kansas City. Further, there is a chance for a couple rainouts (Cubs, Royals) so we may not even get all of these games in. But we have to play it like we will.