SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (45-38) at Arizona (42-42)
Micah Owings (6-7, 5.18 ERA) looks to snap a personal five-game losing skid and pick up his first victory since May 25 when he takes the mound for the Diamondbacks in the rubber match of this series against the Brewers and Seth McClung (5-3, 4.25) at Chase Field. Arizona earned a 6-3 win Monday, but came back on Tuesday and fell 8-6. The DBacks are mired in funks of 3-8 overall, 8-21 against winning teams, 6-8 at home, 2-6 against right-handed starters and 3-9 versus the N.L. Central.
Milwaukee has followed an 8-1 hot streak by losing four of its last six, and the team has lost 14 of its last 20 road games against right-handed starters. Still, the Brewers are on positive runs of 11-5 against the N.L. West, 11-3 against winning teams and 5-1 on Wednesdays. Finally, Milwaukee is now 10-3 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these squads, including sweeping a three-game home series in early June. The Brew Crew has outscored the DBacks 55-16 in its last seven victories against Arizona.
Since starting the season 4-0 with 2.42 ERA in his first four outings, Owings has gone 2-7 with a 6.27 ERA in his last 12 starts, with Arizona losing nine of those contests. On Friday at Florida, Owings lasted just four innings, giving up three runs on four hits and two walks in a 3-1 loss. Also, the right-hander was on the wrong end of a 10-1 decision in Milwaukee on June 4, surrendering five runs (four earned) and eight hits in a season-low three innings of work. He’s 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in two career starts against the Brewers, both in Milwaukee.
McClung, who is making his eighth start of the season for the Brewers, got roughed up his last time out on Friday at Minnesota, yielding five runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings and failing to get a decision in his team’s 7-6 loss. Prior to that, the right-hander had recorded four straight quality starts, going 3-1 with a 2.55 ERA. That included a 7-1 home win over Arizona on June 3.
McClung is 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 10 appearances on the road (three starts). Meanwhile, Owings is 3-3 with a 5.66 ERA in seven starts at Chase Field.
The under is 6-1 in McClung’s seven starts this year, the lone “over” coming in Friday’s game at Minnesota. The under is also 4-2-1 in Owings’ seven home games. Additionally, the under is on runs of 6-2 for Milwaukee overall (3-1 last four), 8-3 for Milwaukee as an underdog, 7-1-2 for Arizona overall, 11-5-1 for Arizona as a favorite and 7-4-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (50-36) at Tampa Bay (51-32)
Scott Kazmir (7-3, 2.28) toes the rubber as the first-place Rays go for a three-game sweep against the Red Sox. Tampa Bay held off Boston 5-4 on Monday and 3-1 on Tuesday and now leads the division by 2½ games. The Rays, who also sport baseball’s best record, have won 11 of their last 14 games overall, going 7-1 in the last eight. They’re also on an incredible 28-6 roll at Tropicana Field, and they’re 42-18 in their last 60 games as a favorite.
The Red Sox, who hand the ball to Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-1, 3.21) tonight, have lost four in a row (all on the road), and they’re now 17-37 in their last 54 contests on an artificial surface and 3-9 in their last 12 as an underdog.
The host is on a 12-0 run in this rivalry, with the home team winning all 11 meetings this year. Boston still owns an astounding 98-45 record in the last 143 clashes against the Rays, but it has lost six straight at Tampa dating to 2007.
Kazmir picked up a victory in Pittsburgh on Friday despite lasting just five innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on five hits in Tampa’s 10-5 rout. Although the southpaw hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 11 starts this season, he has a 4.11 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, failing to get out of the sixth inning in any of those contests.
Kazmir has shined at home this year, going 4-1 with a 1.24 ERA in six starts, holding five of those six foes to one or no runs. In 18 career starts against the Red Sox, he’s 6-6 with a 2.82 ERA, but going back to last year, the Rays are 2-5 when Kazmir goes against Boston, including a 7-3 loss in Beantown in his season debut on May 4.
Matsuzaka bounced back from his first loss of the season – an ugly 9-3 home setback to the Cardinals in which he gave up seven runs in one-plus innings – with a dominating effort Friday at Houston. He gave up two hits and three walks over five scoreless innings en route to a 6-1 win over the Astros. With that effort, the right-hander improved to 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA in six road starts this year.
Matsuzaka faced Tampa Bay five times in his rookie season last year, going 1-3 with a 4.09 ERA, including 0-2 with a 4.26 ERA in three outings at Tropicana Field.
The under is 4-1-1 in Matsuzaka’s six road starts this year, 5-1 in Kazmir’s six home outings and 6-2 in Kazmir’s last eight efforts versus Boston. Also, the under is 6-2-1 in Boston’s last nine games overall, 8-4-2 in Boston’s last 14 against winning teams and 23-9-1 in Tampa’s last 33 home games. Finally, in this rivalry, the under has cashed in five of the last six meetings at Tropicana Field, the lone “over” coming when Monday’s 5-4 contest barely topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
STU FINER
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Big bounce back game from the Twins last night. They showed a ton of grit and a ton of heart. This was a team that came off a crushing loss the night before. There is no question that the Twins should have won on Monday night. They had two separate leads, they had leads late and they just didn’t come through. Last night they were able to bounce back from an early deficit and take care of business at home.
What happens when a team goes on a long run, everyone loves them. Everyone jumped all over the Twins after they won their six, seven, eighth game in a row etc. When they finally lose that inevitable game though, people don’t feel as if they are hot. We are here to tell you that is wrong. This is a team that is still 10-1 in their last eleven games. This is a team that is still seven games over .500, they know how to win. They have pop from the left-side and they have a top of the line-up that can steal 100 bases between them.
The Twins at this prices are too good to pass up, even though the Tigers are solid as well, the Twins in the metro-dome are great.
Minnesota Twins (-)
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Great game last night from Baltimore. How many people out there thought the Orioles would be a few games over .500 right around the all-star break? This team has not done it with smoke and mirrors either, this team has some ball players and this team will win 80 games this season. The Orioles are battle tested, unlike other teams the Orioles play the toughest schedule in baseball.
The Orioles have to play over one third of their schedule against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. The other 19 contests they have to play a Toronto Blue Jays team that can pitch with anyone. The Orioles really get it going when they play against the other AL teams, they know they have a shot to make up some ground.
This is a team that has a batting average of .258 which ranks in the middle, but they are in the top half of the league in both home runs (91 home runs good for ninth) and stolen bases (51 stolen bases good for thirteenth in the league). They are the best fourth place team in baseball by far, their win last night proves that.
Baltimore Orioles (-)
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Just can’t see the Yankees getting swept here tonight at the Bronx. The reason this line is so low is due to the fact the Yankees have lost the first two games of this set. Is it possible the first game they had a let-down after a very emotional series against the Mets? Sure it is possible. Is it possible that the Yankees were looking ahead to the Boston Red Sox big July 4 weekend series? Yes it is possible. Tonight they have no choice though, they have to stare at this game head on.
The Yankees offense has been in a funk. We all know they are better than this though. They have an offense that still averages over 4.60 runs per game, they still hit .270 as a team and they still hit the long ball. They just haven’t been consistent. You better believe that Joe Girardi is going to go after these guys today. He is going to challenge them to win this game. They have been here before and they have come through, tonight will be nothing new.
Ponson came up big against the Mets in the last start, he will do enough to get the win tonight, mark it down.
New York Yankees (-)
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Face it the Rays are the real deal. If you didn’t think so before the week you sure think so now. Tampa is coming off of two straight wins against the now “hated” Red Sox. The impressive part about their two wins; is they have won them in close fashion. Winning both games by just a run or two has showed us that the Rays aren’t going anywhere.
Tonight we get the Rays best pitcher, and arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Let’s remember for a second who Kazmir pitches against. This is a kid that has to face the AL East in so many of his starts. Do you think Edinson Volquez would have the same numbers if he was pitching against the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays a lot? Not a chance.
Scott Kazmir is 7-3 on the season with an ERA of just 2.28. Kazmir doesn’t fear pitching against the Red Sox, he has yet to beat them this year, but has beaten them multiple times in years past. Look out for this sweep as the Trop will be going wild (sort of).
Tampa Bay Rays (-)
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
There are only a handful of pitchers that would be worth trusting in this spot. C.C. Sabathia is one of those starters. Please do not look at his season numbers, they mean absolutely nothing. C.C. came out of the gate terrible. He openly admitted that contract talks, and possible trade destinations were huge distractions. Since then he has been the CC of old, except better.
C.C. has lost just three of his last ten starts. Out of those ten starts, he has struck out at least eight, six times, including three straight games of double-digit strikeouts. His last start against the White Sox in Chicago he pitched great. C.C. threw seven innings of just two run ball, walking just one while striking out eight.
Sabathia actually has better numbers away from Ohio. Pitching in a big game on the road gets C.C. going. Look for the Indians to steal one.
Cleveland Indians (+)
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Dustin McGowan is an under-rated arm. People look at his 6-6 record and they think he can net them some profits, well they are wrong. Here is a pitcher that has over a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. Here is a pitcher that has let up just eight home-runs in 17 starts. In contrast Johan Santana has let up 14 home runs. Dustin knows how to pound the zone and pound down in the zone. He relies on his defense and he gets ground balls.
Dustin did struggle on the road earlier in the season but it looks as if he is over that. He has only lost one time on the road in his last four starts. He was able to beat the Pirates and the Angels as well, two very good home teams. Tonight he pitches against an offense that is struggling. He is not facing a top tier offense tonight.
The last time he pitched against the Mariners he dominated them. In that start he threw a complete game five hitter. He allowed just five hits, struck out seven and won the ball game 3-1. Don’t look too deep in to it, the Blue Jays are better and Dustin knows how to beat them.
Toronto Blue Jays (-)
National League
Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins
Ricky Nolasco has been the Marlins best pitcher this season. Not only has he pitched well but it has translated into wins. Rick is 8-4 on the season. He has thrown 95.2 innings and allowed just a hit per inning (96 hits to be exact). Ricky has been even better recently. Ricky is 2-0 in his last three starts. The Marlins are undefeated in those three starts as well.
Ricky has actually been dominant in his last four starts. Against Philadelphia he threw six innings and allowed no runs. Against Tampa he threw over 8 innings and struck out 12 batters. Two starts ago he threw seven innings and allowed just three runs while walking one batter. His last start was arguably his best. Eight innings, six hits, one earned run, nine strikeouts, one walk.
Ricky hasn’t lost since June 6, and only lost two times since April. Ricky had cut down on his walks, cut down on the long ball (just two in his last four starts and none in his last two) and just pitched better. Look for the Marlins to beat up the Nats today in this afternoon game.
Florida Marlins (-)
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
How about this guy Jorge Campillo? You have to toss out his record for now. You may say well why would we do that? The record is so important. Listen we are not here to tell you it doesn’t matter but it is not the be all, end all of pitching characteristics. Jorge has made eight starts on the season. The Braves are 5-3 in those eight starts. Jorge has thrown 67 innings and he has allowed just 57 hits with a 2.54 ERA. Yes he has a 2.54 ERA.
It doesn’t matter if Jorge is home or on the road, he gets the job done. That shows us that this pitcher is for real, here is a guy that has an ERA of 1.00 on the road and a 66.6% winning percentage in his own building. Make no mistake about it, Jorge is not a young kid. He is a veteran from the Mexican league and he has waited a long time for this season. In his career before 2008 he had made just one professional major league start.
The Phillies are a classic boom or bust team, look for them to bust out here tonight against the Braves.
Atlanta Braves (-)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds bats have been quiet it for a few games, look for that to change tonight. After all this is a team that has a ton of power. No they weren’t terrible last night, they got their hits, but couldn’t come up with the big one. They were facing a tough left-handed starter. Tonight it is a different story.
Jerry Hairston Jr. is now their starting shortstop and their lead-off hitter. Jerry has been red hot, he scored a run last night and is now hitting over .325. With Griffey, Dunn, Phillips, Encarnacion and Bruce you are not going to be able to keep the Reds offense down very long, especially in their park.
Daryl Thompson is a compliment pitcher. He has waited a long time for this call up and he will make the most of it. Look for the Reds to come up big in this game against a team that has a tough time winning on the road.
Cincinnati Reds (-)
LA Dodgers at Houston Astros
The Dodgers finally had some offense last night. This was a team that was desperate for offense. We all know what happened over the weekend right? Well just to rehash it one final time, the Dodgers scored just one in two games and actually had just four hits. In fact on Saturday night they won a game 1-0 and they were actually no-hit by Angels pitching. So seeing them score more than four runs last night, it really showed something.
The Dodgers aren’t all stagnant on offense though, they are fourth in baseball in steals and their batting average is right in the middle of the pack. We all know the Dodgers are led by their starting pitching (just look at last night’s contest). They are actually fifth in baseball in ERA and sixth in strikeouts. The key for the Dodgers is their defense. When the Dodgers don’t make errors they win ball games, when they make errors they lose games. They play a ton of low scoring games and play a ton of one run games.
With their offense waking up look for the Dodgers to get on a little run and take the series from the Astros.
Los Angeles Dodgers (EVEN)
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
Nice to see the Mets finally come alive last night. This is a team that is very tough to figure out. There are so many questions and concerns with this team. If you would believe it, they are actually a bigger story in 2008 than the New York Yankees are. First off they made a big splash when they traded for Johan Santana. Let’s be honest Johan hasn’t lived up to the hype. He has not been bad, but he is supposed to be great. He is supposed to be better than Volquez, Lincecum and Zambrano etc. He has been just a good but not great pitcher.
The Mets are still a capable team. They have a tough top of the line-up. When Jose Reyes goes he causes a ton of chaos. Luis Castillo is a career .295 hitter and the big bats of David Wright and Carlos Beltran are capable of knocking those guys in each and every time out.
Pedro Martinez still has something left. He was embarrassed after the Yankees game and he is going to bounce back in a big way, Mets take this game.
New York Mets (+)
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Monday night’s game for the Rockies was truly their breaking point. The Rockies have had a ton of bad baseball games this season, but this was by far the worst. This was a game that they let slip away in dramatic fashion.
On Monday night the Rockies were actually up 8-3 in the sixth inning. From there they just got absolutely destroyed. 12 runs in the final five innings led to the slow death of the Rockies. We don’t want to blame Coors field, this was a team that just went dead after the fifth inning. In the first five innings they scored in four of them, after the fifth, they put up goose-eggs in the sixth, seventh, eight and then went down quietly in the ninth inning.
All told they lost 15-8 and they allowed a whopping 22 hits to a team that is ranked in the bottom five in offense. In fact before that game they were actually the second worst offense in the league. The Padres hit under .250 as a team folks, you can’t allow them to walk on your field and put up 22 hits.
We will look for the Padres to start to build momentum they aren’t a bad baseball team and are getting healthier.
San Diego Padres (+)
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Don’t let one bad start by Randy Johnson throw you off. The Diamondbacks at home are still a good play. In fact they are a great play. This is a team that has spent so much time on the road. They had a terrible stretch in which they dropped seven of nine games. As we have highlighted before that was to three very good ball clubs and all of those three game sets were road contests.
At home Arizona is still one of the better teams in baseball. Going to play in Arizona is no easy task. It is a tough field, it is hot and you normally see a good pitcher. Tonight they roll out Micah Owings. Micah has struggled of late but he has pitched in to some bad luck. This guy still has good numbers from a walk and hits stand point. He is just one game under .500 even with his recent slide. He is a better pitcher than his 0-3 mark in his last contests would suggest. Look for Micah to spoil the Brewers plans on this Wednesday night affair.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-)
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
Sometimes you can’t take a game at face value. Sometimes you have to really dig deep in to a game and look at it for what is worth. Everyone will look at Ryan Dempster and feel very confident. They will look at his 9-3 record and feel confident. They will look at the Cubs record in his seventeen starts and feel confident. After all the Cubs are 12-5 in his seventeen starts. Let’s keep going though please.
Dempster has been amazing at home. This is a pitcher that has gone undefeated in Wrigley. How does a 9-0 mark sound with a 2.71 ERA? It sounds great actually. On the road though he isn’t even an average pitcher. On the road Ryan has not won a ball game this season. He is 0-3 with an ERA over 4. In those 38 innings he has allowed 15 walks and six long balls. Those numbers are too inflated to be successful on the road.
Look for the Giants to steal one and don’t be shocked at the outcome. Let Dempster prove it to us first, before we lay this number.
San Francisco Giants (+)
Alex Smart
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Under 8.0
The Boston Red Sox starting pitcher tonight against the TBRays, Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-1,3.21 ERA) will go after his 10th victory in the final tilt of a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays. Matsuzaka's in just his second start after coming off the disabled list threw five shutout innings in a victory against the Astros, last time out , and will primed to continue his upward momentum in this spot. The BoSox righty has been tough on opposing offenses in 2008 , allowing enemy batting orders a lowly .206 BA average. He has been especially tough in his starts away from Fenway, recording a 4-0 mark along with a 2.20 ERA in six road starts this season. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays will return fire with the ace of their staff Scott Kazmir (7-3, 2.28 ERA). The hard throwing southpaw has not allowed more than 3 ERs in any of his 10 starts this season, and will be primed for a repeat performance in this spot. Kazmir is 6-6 with a 2.82 ERA in his career vs the BoSox. Bottom line: With two of the most capable pitchers in the AL on the hill , and two of the more capable bullpens in baseball supporting them ,it will be an easy decision to back this tilt to stay on the low side of the number.Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 5-1 in Matsuzakas last 6 road starts with the total set at 7-8.5 . Under is 5-0 in Kazmirs last 5 home starts with the total set at 7-8.5 . Play under
Matt Fargo
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Boston Red Sox
I’m going back with Boston as the contrarian theory still holds true as the home team is now 11-0 in this series year to date after the Rays win again last night. The Red Sox are seven games under .500 on the road for the season but the offense has been sufficient with a .269 average. It is also .279 over their last 10 games and facing a lefty starter has been good to it so far this season. Boston is hitting .286 on the season against left-handed pitching and most importantly, it is 13-3 on the year against left-handed starters.
Tampa Bay has the second best home record in the American League but it remains a tough place for the home team to generate any offense. Over the last five home series, covering 15 games, the Rays have averaged only 3.7 rpg. On the season, they are averaging just 4.3 rpg while Boston is tied for 10th in baseball, averaging 4.5 rpg on the road. The pitching has been outstanding at home but keeping the Red Sox offense in check yet again will be a difficult task.
At one point Scott Kazmir was the only pitcher for the Rays that could take care of Boston and he did so dominantly. However, it has gone south in recent starts. Over his last six starts against the Red Sox, Kazmir is 1-4 with Tampa Bay losing four of the last five. Three of the last four outings against Boston have been non-quality starts including the last two pitched at Tropicana Field. He has a 4.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over his last three starts and none of those have been quality outings.
Daisuke Matsuzaka was hammered by the Cardinals in his first start back from the disabled list on June 21st. He allowed seven runs in just one inning and it was obvious the rust had settled in. He followed that up with a solid effort next time out in Houston as he allowed no runs on two hits in five innings in a 6-1 Boston win. He has been extremely solid away from Fenway Park, going 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA in six starts. Three of his five career starts against the Rays have been quality outings including two of three in Tampa. Play Boston Red Sox 1.5 Units
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Tampa Bay w/Kazmir
Note: The upstart Rays close out their huge series with the Red Sox Wednesday night at the Trop in Tampa behind Scott Kazmir with a lot on the line here this evening. Kazmir brings a lot to the table in this contest, having gone 7-0 at night with a 1.61 ERA this season. He's also won 5 of his last 7 starts at home against Boston and 6 of his last 8 home starts in July. With the Red Sox just 2-8 away on Wednesdays, look for the Rays to improve to 6-1 at home behind the crafty Kazmir this season here tonight.
James Patrick
Texas vs. New York
Even with the Yankee offense struggling, this evening’s starters at the Stadium, (Texas-Mendoza & Yankees-Ponson), should be long gone by the fourth inning and our Wednesday selection is Rangers-Yankees Over the Total.
Big Al Mcmordie
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
At 9:40pm our member selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Milwaukee Brewers. Arizona righthander Micah Owings may have lost five of his last six starts, but he has been bothered by a sore back for some of those games, and still hasn't really pitched that badly. He and his team have pronounced him fit for this game, so be prepared to see the Micah Owings that we saw for much of April and May when the 25-year-old went 6-2 with a 3.73 ERA in his first nine starts. The Brewers will send out converted reliever Seth McClung who has been extremely inconsistent in his seven starts this season. McClung rarely gets past the sixth inning in his starts and only lasted 4 2/3 in his last outing at Minnesota against the Twins, giving up nine hits and five earned runs in one of his worst starts of the year. Milwaukee is only hitting .248 vs. righthanders this season. Take the D-Backs.
Jimmy The Moose
Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Florida Marlins
The Nationals won last night but expect the Marlins to take this one this afternoon. The Nationals are 5-9 in their last 14 games overall and in their last 14 games as an underdog. The Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Perez, 2-5, is on the mound this afternoon. Washington has lost 5 of his last 7 road starts. The Marlins are 12-6 in their last 18 games as a favorite. Florida has won Nolasco's last 4 starts. The Marlins are 4-1 in his last 5 as a home favorite. The Nationals are 2-11 in the last 13 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Florida Marlins -.
Robert Ross
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
Bucs' starter Van B. has been on the shelf since May and is in a tough spot in his return as he faces a power-packed Reds' team looking to bounce back off last night's x-tra inning loss. Even with that win Pittsburgh is 17-51 against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 3 seasons. Take Cincinnati!
STEPHEN NOVER
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees
PICK: Texas Rangers
There's no way the Texas Rangers can sweep the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, right? I say why not. The Yankees traditionally are a strong July club, but right now they're not any better than Texas and they are laying a hefty price in this series finale.
New York is 44-40. Texas is 44-41. The Rangers are ranked No. 1 in runs scored and slugging percentage. They are in the top five in batting average, on-base percentage and home runs. The highest the Yankees rank in any of these five key offensive categories in seventh. They rate 13th in runs scored and are No. 15 in homers.
The Rangers also are capable of hurting the Yankees on the base paths. They stole four bases off New York last night, leaving you to wonder if Jorge Posada's injured right shoulder still isn't fully healed.
To avoid the sweep, the Yankees are banking on Sidney Ponson. He held the Mets scoreless for six innings in his Yankees debut Saturday. But when has Ponson ever proven himself reliable and trustworthy? His pattern has been to follow a well-pitched game with a clunker.
Yeah, he'll have motivation to beat his former team. The Rangers released Ponson because he couldn't get along and was a pain in the butt. But the Rangers have just as much motivation to defeat their former unpopular teammate. Their hitters certainly know Ponson's tendencies and should have a complete scouting report.
The Yankees, on the other hand, have never faced Texas starter Luis Mendoza. He's not going to get any respect on the betting line, but Mendoza could come in with a big game since he's healthy now. He had been sidelined with shoulder inflammation and blister problems.
Since coming back two weeks ago, Mendoza has pitched out of the bullpen and not been scored on in seven innings. He's allowed four hits and not walked a batter during this span. The Rangers are now ready to try him in the rotation again. This is a huge start for him.
Keep in mind, too, the Yankees are not hitting or scoring runs. New York has scored seven runs in its last four games, while averaging less than six hits per game during this time frame.
There are the usual Big Apple media distractions, too, for the Yankees. The tabloids are throwing out rumors about Alex Rodriguez seeing Madonna and there's a look-ahead situation because the Yankees host Boston tomorrow in the start of a four-game series.
I would take a shot with the Rangers, but not be in any rush to play the game until close to post in anticipation that public money will all be on New York.
DOC'S
New York Mets @ St. Louis
PICK: Over
The Mets continue to be one of the most disappointing teams in baseball and they are playing a squad that has no business leading the NL Wild Card. El Pedro will go for the Mets looking for his third victory on the season. He has been lit up of late giving up 12 runs in his last two starts and Fat Albert is back in the line-up for the Red Birds. Joel Pinero was also pounded in his last outing against the weak hitting Royals giving up seven runs. His last victory came on April 29th and expect the powerful line-up that the Mets posses to take some healthy cuts off of him. This will be a high scoring game and the over gives us the best chance for success.
Ross Benjamin
Game: Philadelphia (Eaton) @ Atlanta (Campillo)
Pick: Atlanta -135
The Philadelphia starting pitcher Adam Eaton is 2-7 in his team starts on the road this season with a lofty 4.92 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Eaton is a dismal 2-10 in his last 12 team starts when pitching on exactly 5 days rest. Eaton enters the game in bad form off of his last 3 starts posting a 5.79 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. Eaton has struggled in his appearances versus the braves the last few years. Atlanta is a solid 18-8 at home this season versus a right-handed starting pitcher. The Atlanta starter Campillo enters the game in good form off of his last 3 starts posting a 3.38 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Braves are 28-15 at home this season while the Phillies are just 3-9 in their last 12. Play on the Atlanta Braves.
Scott Ferrall
YANKEES -170 over Rangers--Ponson won't let Texas sweep the Bombers in the Bronx. He'll beat his old team out of revenge for them dumping him. He's glad to be back with the Yanks
Kansas City +110 over Baltimore--Meche over Cabrera in Camden. I'm on THE UNDER 9 RUNS
TAMPA -145 over Boston--Dice K hasn't been sharp and Kazmir is lights out in St.Pete. The Rays finish off the sweep-amazing !
Cleveland -110 over CHI SOX--CC Sabathia over Contreras and take the UNDER 8 RUNS. Sabathia has been great lately !
Seattle (even odds) over Toronto--Washburn gets the Mariners a rare win. McGowan will stumble on the road
Karl Garrett
Philadelphia +130 at ATLANTA
I know the Phillies haven't exactly been lighting it up of late, as Philadelphia has won just 3 of their last 11, but they certainly seem to have Atlanta's number this season at Turner Field, as Philly has won all 4 series meetings in the land of dixie, and they are 6-1 overall this year against the Bravos.
Atlanta has dropped their last 3, and the Braves are now struggling in their own ball yard, as they have dropped 7 of their last 10 home games.
Adam Eaton has not had a winning road decision this year, but the G-Man has a feeling the Phillies bats will continue what they started last night when they scored 8, and rapped out 14 hits along the way.
G-Man sees the Phillies continuing their 2008 domination of the Braves with another win tonight at Turner Field.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Texas at NY YANKEES
New night, same story, as we like the Rangers and Yankees to stay UNDER the posted total once again.
The New York bats have gone quiet, as the Yankees have scored only 7 runs over their last 4 games, and have been UNDER the total now in 5 straight, and 8 of their last 11.
Texas is not far behind, as the Rangers have gone UNDER in their last 3, and are on a 3-7-1 UNDER clip their last 11 ball games.
You would think with the pitching matchup of Luis Mendoza, and Sidney Ponson we will see the bats come to life, but Ponson did work 6 scoreless in a win over the Mets in his first start with the Yankees, and he does have something to prove to the Rangers, as Texas dumped him from the team earlier this season.
We say until these teams show us something at the plate, stick with the trends, and play the UNDER once again.
Go LOW in the Bronx.
3♦ UNDER