TONY WESTON
Tonight were going with the Houston Astros in an easy winner of the Los Angeles Dodgers in Houston.
To say the Astros have dominated the Dodgers would be a great understatement. With yesterday's 4-1 win over Los Angeles, Houston is now 4-0 against the Dodgers this season and has outscored them 24-7 in that stretch.
And now the Astros come into this game on a three-game winning streak and won seven of their last 10 games, including five of their last seven at home.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, come into this game 5-12 their last 17 road games and are 4-6 their last 10 games overall. And for the season the Dodgers are only 16-24 away from home.
It'll be another loss for Los Angeles tonight in Houston.
Take the Astros in an easy winner at home.
4♦ ASTROS
JOHN RYAN
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Play: Total: Over
I had Texas in game 1 of this series and quite frankly was not surprised that Texas won again last night. The Mets/NYY series does take it?s toll on the teams and it is showing even more with the Yankees in this series. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 61-25 OVER for 71% since 1997. Play over with all teams where the total is 10 or higher and after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less last 2 games. NYY starter Ponson is 5-1 in his 10 starts this season, but he has allowed far too many hits. In 61.7 IP he has allowed 76 and in home starts 46 hits spanning 34.7 IP. Texas starter Mendoza is struggling just to make it through an inning and has a 9.31 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 17.34 ERA in 2 road starts. AiS shows a 73% probability that 11 or more runs will be scored in this game. Texas is 30-14 OVER (+15.9 Units) versus AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season; 15-7 OVER (+8.2 Units) versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. Texas is also 7-0 OVER this season after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 straight games. Yankees are 34-18 OVER after a 1 run loss over the past 3 seasons. Take the OVER.
Players of America
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
The Play: Atlanta Braves -120
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
The Play: Cleveland Indians +105
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Play: Boston Red Sox +135
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Play: Under 9.5
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
SILVER KEY PLAY
COLORADO -135
Insider Sports Report
Washington/Florida UNDER 9
JOE WIZ
Cubs
LT's LOCKS
Giants -120
Gamblers Data
Oakland/Angels under 8
MADDUX
Cincinnati -140
NICK JONES
Phillies +125
COMPUTER SPORTS
ORIOLES-125
LEE STEVENS
ST. LOUIS
HAWKEYE
White Sox/Cleveland under 8
SOUTHSIDE SPORTS
PHILLIES
TRACE ADAMS
Diamondbacks
DONALD TRAN
Twins -120
Jennifer Barry
DBacks -120
Chad Jordan
Orioles -125
TONY MATHEWS
Phillies +120
SHARP SPORTS ADVISORS
RED SOX +129
ARMVIN SPORTS
HOUSTON ASTROS +101
BOSTON RED SOX +129
JB's Computer Picks
Los Angeles Angels -130
New York Yankees -170 * * *
Philadelphia Phillies +120
Best Bet ***
Jeff Alexander
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
1 Unit on Padres/Rockies UNDER 10 Runs
The Under is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 starts vs. the Padres and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The Under is 9-0 in the Rockies last 9 Wednesday games, 23-6 in the Rockies last 29 during game 3 of a series, and 10-1 in Jimenez's last 11 starts as a favorite. The Under is 13-3-1 in Wolf's last 17 starts overall and 11-5 in the Padres last 16 vs. the National League West. Neither team is doing much scoring this season with the Padres averaging just 3.7 runs and the Rockies averaging just 4.2. The oddsmakers are trying to catch the public in the Coors Field trap here. We'll bet the UNDER.
LT Profits
Baltimore Orioles -125
Daniel Cabrera of the Baltimore Orioles and Gil Meche of the Kansas City Royals have similar number this season, although Meche has been much better over the last three starts, but the head-to-head performances this year vs. their opponents tonight give Cabrera the edge.
Cabrera is 5-4 with a 4.53 this season, and he has just one Quality Start in his last five outings. However, he has allowed three earned runs or less in all seven of his career starts vs. the Royals, so this looks like a great spot for him to get on track.
Cabrera tossed a masterpiece in his only start vs. Kansas City this year, hurling a Complete Game three-hitter and allowing just one run with seven strikeouts. Even if he does continue some of his recent struggles, at least he has the support of a Baltimore bullpen that ranks fourth in the American League and sixth in the majors with a 3.28 ERA.
Now Meche has undoubtedly been great lately, allowing three runs or less in four straight starts, but he did not pitch well in his only other start vs. Baltimore this year. He was roughed up for five earned runs and eight baserunners in five innings that day, and unlike Cabrera, his bullpen is not as reliable if he needs some bailing out, as the Royals rank 19 in the bigs with a 4.05 pen ERA.
Finally, the Orioles have had uncanny success vs. Kansas City going 43-14 in the last 57 meetings, so look for that to continue.
Pick: Orioles -125
Chicago White Sox -105
The Chicago White Sox could seemingly do no wrong right now, and even though they are facing the hot C.C. Sabathia of the Cleveland Indians, the Sox are virtually an automatic play at this cheap price at home right now.
The White Sox simply have great karma right now, as they have won six games in a row after rallying from an extra-inning deficit last night, tying the game on a home run with two outs and nobody on in the tenth inning and then stringing together a couple of more hits for the win.
Their starter tonight, Jose Contreras, has had two awful outings in his last four starts, but those are the only outings in his last 10 efforts where he allowed more than three earned runs in a game. However, he has been brilliant in his last three starts vs. Cleveland, allowed one measly earned run in 17.2 innings.
Now this will obviously be a tough assignment vs. Sabathia, who has reeled off four straight Quality Starts. However, if Contreras pitched as well tonight as he did in his first start vs. Cleveland this year when he allowed one run and four hits in six innings, this game will probably be decided by the bullpens late.
That would make the White Sox an easy call, as they lead the American League with a 2.72 bullpen ERA.
Pick: White Sox -105
Beat your Bookie
100 - FLA
50 - COL
50 - NY Yankees
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER
Florida w/Nolasco -165
David Malinsky
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Kansas City Royals 4*
We lost an underdog ticket with Kansas City on Tuesday but it did not have to be - the Royals had more hits, more extra base hits, more home runs, and drew more walks. But a couple of defensive lapses by Mike Aviles opened the door for that early Baltimore scoring cycle, and they could not recover completely. All that means is the chance to come right back at a more than fair price again, and we will.
We wrote a “TOTB” column about Gil Meche back in early May, noting how he had found a flaw in his mechanics that had led to such a slow start, and that he should go into a correction mode. He certainly has, with a 3.20 over his last nine starts, but all that does is lower his full season to 4.57, which is the way that the markets are pricing him for this outing. That works for us from a value standpoint, and his direction has been getting even better - how about a 2.06 over his last four starts, a span in which he has recorded 23 strikeouts, while only allowing 17 hits? And behind him is a bullpen with all key arms rested and ready, including closer Joakim Soria, arguably the most under-rated performer in the Major’s right now.
Daniel Cabrera has been the flip side of Meche - he got off to a strong start that is carrying a lot of weight in his overall numbers, but is struggling in a major way right now. It has been an 0-3/7.06 slide over the last five starts, a span in which those control issues have come into play again. The pressure of performing in front of the home fans continues to exacerbate that issue, instead of providing confidence - it has been a 6.15 over 158 innings from this mound the past two seasons, compared to a 4.22 in 155.2 on the road. And behind him is an erratic bullpen for the latter stages, one that has seen both closer George Sherrill and set-up man Dennis Sarfate work three straight days, with Sherrill wobbling badly in all three of them (allowed game-turning home runs on Sunday and Monday, and then a two-run single to score inherited runners last night).
The Royals have 24 hits and 10 walks in this series, compared to 18 and six for the Orioles. That paints a more accurate picture of the current momentum of these teams than the scoreboards, and getting Meche and the superior bullpen at an underdog price has us back in the hunt here.
KBHOOPS
5 units Florida/Washington OVER 8.5 **POD**
5 units Atlanta/Philly UNDER 9.5
5 units Minnesota Twins -120
4 units Chicago Soxs EVEN
4 units LAD/Houston OVER 9
Chris James Sports
3* A's / Angels Under
GINA
Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins
The Nationals beat the Marlins 9-6 yesterday, but Florida has won 11 of their last 13 games against Washington and will send right-hander Ricky Nolasco to the hill, who has won his last three starts and is 4-1 with a 3.77 ERA in seven career outings, including 5 starts versus the Nationals. Washington counters with veteran Odalis Perez. The southpaw is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts and went 2-2 in 11 career games against the Marlins.
Go with the Marlins today at Miami's Dolphin Stadium with Nolasco on the hill. Florida has won 6 of the last 7 meetings versus Washington and Nolasco’s last 4 starts.
Florida Marlins -170
WINNERS EDGE
NY Mets - 105 , 3 units ( GAME OF WEEK)
Boston Red Sox + 125 , 1 unit
S.D Padres + 130 , 1 unit