John Ryan
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the CWS – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 115-62 making 51.1 units since 2002. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing and is now facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts. CWS starter Contreras has not pitched all that well recently, but was solid in his last start. CWS are 15-4 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus good defensive catchers allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season; 14-4 (+10.4 Units) against the money line versus a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season; 21-9 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
York Mets vs. St Louis Cardinals
Pick: New York Mets
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the Mets – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 94-46 and has made 46.1 units since 1997. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities and is now facing an NL opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season. Granted, Pedro is not the Pedro of old, but he has had strong success against the Cardinals and that will serve him well tonight. Pedro is 3-1 when starting against STL with an ERA of 1.75 and a WHIP of 1.014. STL starter Peneiro is coming off a very poor start allowing 7 ER and the Mets must be confident with him on the hill. Mets are a solid 56-44 making 21.4 units when installed as a +100 to +150 dog over the past 3 seasons
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Boston Red Sox
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Boston Red Sox – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-27 making 30.7 units since 2002. Play on all dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. Matsuzaka appears to have been struggling, but it was simply isolated to one start where he gave up 7 ER in 1 IP. That start and the subsequent rest served him well as he allowed just 2 hits and ZERO earned runs in his last start – a 6-1 win at Houston. He is 4-0 on the road with a 2.20 ERA and a 1.133 WHIP. His pitches have tremendous movement and he does try to embarrass hitters with K’s so his walk totals are higher than I nor Boston management would like. That brings up the bullpen. Red Sox bullpen is fine and they have posted a 2.53 ERA in dome games and a 3.44 ERA in nights games. TB starter Kazmir has allowed 3 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts. He has also allowed 3 HR in his last 3 starts. Boston is 47-17 (+22.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Terry Fracona is 116-59 making 46.3 units versus a starting pitcher who gives up less than 0.5 HR per start as the skipper of the Red Sox
WNBA
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever
Pick: Chicago
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Chicago (WNBA) – AiS shows an 85% probability that they will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Chicago is several strong roles for this game. AiS shows a 90% probability that Chicago will hit a minimum of 40% from the field and also that both teams will score 75 or more points in this game. Note that Chicago is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they make 40% to 44% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) where both teams score 71 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus poor ball handling teams committing >=17 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons; 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams that are making >=33% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Indiana in a very poor role noting that they are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus teams who average 42 or more rebounds/game on the season this season. Moreover, Chicago is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons; 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons; 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
I also like the OVER as identified by the AiS as a 3* MAJOR. I would also suggest a 2* amount with a parlay of Chicago and the OVER. Note that Indiana is a remarkable 15-1 OVER (+13.9 Units) where both teams score 71 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons.
KELSO
High Rollers Baseball
10 unit - Cards
Best Bets Baseball Club
5 unit - Boston
4 unit - Atlanta
3 unit - Reds
Matty O'Shea
ATL / PHI Under 9
Analysis: For the second straight day, we find a total that is being shaded toward the OVER despite past series history indicating that the UNDER is clearly the better play. Tuesday's result between these teams saw an 8-3 victory for Philadelphia, which is the first time the total went OVER in the last five meetings. Add to the equation the fact that the UNDER is 13-1-1 in Phillies starting pitcher Adam Eaton's 15 starts this season and 5-1-1 in Braves pitcher Jorge Campillo's seven starts, and we have some serious trends working in our favor. That's why I'm betting the UNDER to
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
NYY / 971 TEX Over 10.5
Surprisingly the first two games of this series have totaled only 8 runs but look for this low-scoring trend to come to an abrupt halt on Wednesday in the series finale. Sidney Ponson gets a shot against his former team as the Yankees right-hander faces the Rangers. The end result of this is likely to be Ponson overthrowing and getting crushed as he wants so badly to knock off his former team but hell be facing a solid Rangers lineup that certainly knows his tendencies. Even though Ponson had a solid first start for the Yankees there was more to it than what you see on the surface. The Mets had eight base runners against Ponson in the first three innings but failed to score! Then, after that, the Yankees offense starting pounding the ball and giving Ponson a lot of run support and the Mets appeared to throw in the towel. That allowed Ponson to have a strong finish to a start that he came very close to getting crushed in! That means we get line value here because what the casual observer sees is Ponson allowing just four walks and five hits in six shutout innings! Also note that Ponson is lucky in the way his whole season has played out thus far. He was 4-1 with the Rangers before coming to New York but note that opponents were hitting .307 against him. As you can see, hes been far from dominant this season and his 8-2 career record against the Rangers is also deceiving as hes been hit at a .286 clip by Texas bats and hes compiled a 4.82 ERA against them. Look for Ponson to get roughed up but also note that the Yankees bats should again give him plenty of support like they did in Fridays 9-0 win. The Yanks will be taking their cuts against the Rangers Luis Mendoza. The right-hander has been outstanding since he started coming out of the bullpen again but he struggled badly as a starting pitcher earlier this season. In his three starts this season, Mendoza allowed 18 hits and walked 7 and all this came in less than a combined ten innings of work! Even though the Yankees bats have suddenly gone quiet in their last few games, they had previously scored an average of 7 runs per game in winning three of four games. Also, Mendoza is only 24 years old and hes making just his 7th career MLB start. Yankee Stadium can be very tough on a young, inexperienced hurler and that is precisely the category that Mendoza falls into at this point. As a result, this one turns into a Slugfest!
ANTON WINS
Today's 4 unit MLB play is Philadelphia +125
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL WINNER
NY Yankees w/Ponson -167
Jeff Benton
10 Dime: ROYALS
10 Dime: ROCKIES
VEGAS RUNNER
CHC (-131)vs SFG 2* ML WAGER
ATL / PHI Over 9.5 1* TOTAL *
CIN / PIT Over 11 1* TOTAL *
I am still seeing some shops using 10.5 with the Over -125...which if you can get it, is offering up even more value..VR
HOU / LOS Over 9 1* TOTAL
SFG / CHC Under 8 1* TOTAL
TEX 1.5 (-128) vs NYY 3* MLB BEST "RL" BET of the WEEK
Root
Chairman- Brewers
Millionaire- Dodgers
Insiders Circle- Orioles
Billionaire- Cubs
Larry Ness' 15* Revenge Game of the Week (43-31 with GOW plays since Opening Day)
My 15* play is on the Atl Braves at 7:10 ET. Enough is enough. The Braves own the NL's third-best home record (28-15) but after last night's 8-3 loss to the Phillies, have now lost four straight games at home to Philadelphia this year (got swept at home from June 6-8). The Phillies 'limped' into Atlanta last night having lost NINE of their previous 11 games. Philly's powerful lineup had been quieted by AL pitching (all game were interleague contests), scoring a meager 31 runs during their interleague slide (2.8 per). However, the Phils pounded out 14 hits in last night's win. The Braves had to be even more disappointed in their effort, as Chipper Jones played (was expected to go on the DL) and Mark Kotsay returned to the lineup after 33 games on the DL. Shortstop Yunel Escobar could return here and as I said at the top, "enough is enough." The Braves will hand the ball to Jorge Campillo, who was moved into the starting rotation in late May. He made a huge 'splash' in his first three starts of '08, allowing six hits and one ER over 15 innings, with 16 Ks and zero walks. He went 2-0 (team was 3-0) with an 0.60 ERA. He hasn't been quite that good since but in eight starts he's got a 3.15 ERA (36-7 K/W raio) and the Braves have won FIVE of his eight starts (4-2 in Atlanta). Campillo squared off against the Phils back on June 8, allowing three ERs in 5.1 innings without receiving a decision in that 6-3 home loss. His opponent in that game was Adam Eaton, Philly's starter tonight. Not only will the Braves be out for some revenge (ending their four-game losing streak here at home to the Phillies) but Campillo gets another shot at Eaton. Eaton allowed eight hits and three ERs (six innings) in their last meeting and that was one of his better outings this year. Eaton has been a flop since leaving San Diego for free agency after going 11-5 in 2005. He went just 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA in 13 starts for Texas in '06 and 10-10 with a 6.29 ERA in 30 starts last year for the Phillies (team was 15-15). He's just 2-6 with a 4.86 ERA this year in 16 starts (team is 7-9) and he's winless over his last four starts, going 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA in his last three. In nine road start this year, Eaton is 0-4 with a 4.93 ERA (team is 2-7). This game sets up perfectly for the Braves, a very good home team which is poised to beat the Phillies here at Turner Field. It sure helps that Eaton is "ripe for the taking" and that Campillo has put up solid numbers. Revenge Game of the Week 15* Atl Braves.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (5-1 start in MLB this week)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. To say the least, the Pirates are not much of a road team. Most know the Pirates last had an overall winning season back in 1992 (longest active drought in MLB) and the team's road woes have been the major culprit. I don't have the space to recap the entire 'laundry list' but the Pirates entered the 2008 season with a 121-203 road mark (.373) the last four seasons. Last night, while they tried to blow it a number of times, the Pirates held on the win in Cincinnati, 6-5 (11 innings). The win leaves them 14-25 (.359) on the road this year, which is an even lower winning perecenatge than the team has owned the previous four seasons. However, the win gives the Pirates an opportunity to win a road series in tonight's "rubber game" with the Reds, for the first time since mid-May (took two of three from the Cards in St Louis, May 13-15). The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Pirates will face rookie Daryl Thompson, making just his third career start. However, the Reds like this kid and he looked very good in his ML debut on May 21, going five innings while allowing four hits and no runs at Yankee Stadium in a 6-0 win. He did not look as good in his next start (at Cleveland), allowing eight hits and four ERs (five innings) in a 6-0 loss. The bad news however, is that the Pirates can only counter with John Van Benschoten, and that's REALLY bad news! Van Benchoten was a horrific 0-7 with a 10.15 ERA in 2007 in 11 appearances (nine starts). He was 0-7 with a 9.61 ERA in those starts, with the Pirates going 1-8. That included the Pirates going 0-5 in his road starts, with Van Benschoten posting an 11.29 ERA. He was used in relief early this season but was sent to the minors in early May, after allowing nine hits and six ERs (seven innings) in his lone '08 start, an 8-1 home loss to the Braves. He was recalled this past Saturday and literally hours later, picked up a win in relief against the Rays. However, this guy is hardly "ready for prime time" and he's backed by the NL's worst bullpen (4.64 ERA). Thompson has promise and the Cincy bullpen owns an ERA of 3.74, almost a run less that Pittsburgh's. Las Vegas Insider on the Cin Reds.
Ben Burns
MLB 5* Atlanta Braves
MLB 4* Padres/Rockies over 9.5
MLB 4* Arizona Diamondbacks
LT Profits
MLB 2* Royals/Orioles under 9
MLB 2* Phillies/Braves over 9
Alex Smart
MLB 2* NY Yankees
Fairway Jay
MLB 3* La Dodgers
Drew Gordon
400,000* Rockies