LT Profits
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox Under 9.0
The Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins went Over last night after a 1-0 game in the series opener, but we look for the total output tonight to be closer to the first game of this series than Game 2.
Red Sox ace Josh Beckett is in good form, as he has rattled off four straight Quality Starts and he has seven such outings in his last eight starts. After a bit of a rough start this season, Beckett now has a 3.70 ERA and an excellent 1.11 WHIP, and we see no reason why he cannot dominate the rest of the year like Boston expected him to right out of the gate.
Now Livan Hernandez does put too many men on base for our taste for Minnesota, be he does have three Quality Starts in his last four outings, and his nine wins this season are not a total fluke, as he has made an art out of pitching well with runners on. His first start vs. the Red Sox this season was a typical one, as he allowed 10 hits yet recorded a Quality Start, allowing three runs in six innings of a 7-3 Minnesota win.
While their styles may differ, look for both starters to keep the scoring down in this game.
Pick: Twins, Red Sox Under 9
Chicago White Sox -125
Javier Vazquez of the Chicago White Sox and Brian Bannister of the Kansas City Royals may be off form lately, but the recent performances of these pitchers vs. their respective opponents tonight and a super Chicago bullpen should make the difference.
Besides, Vazquez did appear to turn things around last start, tossing a Complete Game four-hitter with 10 strikeouts in a tough-luck 3-2 loss to the Oakland Athletics, snapping a streak of five straight starts without a Quality Start. He was certainly dominant the last time he faced the Royals last September, allowing two runs on five hits in eight innings with an impressive 13 strikeouts.
Bannister, on the other hand, is showing no signs of improvement, allowing a total of 13 earned runs in just 9.2 innings over his last two starts. He was also hit hard in each of his last two starts vs. the White Sox, which both came last September, as he surrendered a total of 11 earned runs in only 5.2 total innings over two outings.
Finally, Vazquez figures to get more bullpen support if necessary, as the White Sox lead the American League and rank second in the majors with a 2.80 pen ERA, while the Royals rank ninth out of 14 American League teams at 4.00.
Pick: White Sox -125
Terron Chapman
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins will try to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox this afternoon in Fenway and will send veteran pitcher Livian Hernandez to the mound to assist in doing so.
Livian has struggled recently after a strong start to the season. Even still he is 9-5 on the season with the Twins going 13-6 in games he has started this year. His last two road starts have been horrendous to say the least, thus the high price tag attached to the Red Sox. But in our opinion Livian is certainly a servicable pitcher who already owns a win against the Red Sox this season. This will be his first start in Fenway however since 2006 when he was with the Nationals. If Livian can navigate his way through the early innings without too much damage as we expect, the Twins will have a good shot at avoiding the sweep.
But to do so they must score runs and that will not be easy as the Red Sox send Josh Beckett to the mound. Beckett and the Sox have dropped his last two home starts however, including a 10-6 loss to the O's as a -206 favorite. In his last start against the Twins he dropped the cash for his backers as a heavy -243 favorite last season against a Twins team who did not have the talent this one has. Beckett could struggle this afternoon against a Twins team hitting .327 against right handers the last 10 games. Out of his twelve home runs allowed on the season, seven of those have come in day games. This will be the first time the Twinkies have been tagged as a pup of +200 all season. In the same role last year they went 2-0.Play on the Minnesota Twins for 1 unit.
Tony Karpinski
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Under
The two teams with the lowest runs allowed in the NL face off here on Wednesday. Both teams boast excellent starting pitching and tonight Tim Hudson will face Derek Lowe. Hudson hasn't done too well on the road, posting a 2-5 mark with 4.35 era. Lowe on the other hand has pitched very well at home, boasting a 3.26 era. The right handed sinker ball pitcher has a 4-1 KO/BB ratio at Chavez Ravine this year. Neither team is known for their hitting this year either, so we'll take the under here on Wednesday and look for a very good pitcher's duel.
John Ryan
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Reds – Cubs bullpen is a bit weak of late sporting a 6.62 ERA and allowing 3 HR over the past 7 games. Reds bullpen arguably pitching their best of the season right now posting a 2.16 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP and recording 27 K’s over the past 7 games spanning 25 IP. Reds starter Cueto is pitching well posting a 1.96 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP over the past 3 starts. Moreover, he has allowed just 4 BB and recording 17 K’s in 18.3 IP. Zambrano is pitching steady consistent baseball, but he has allowed 9 BB in his last 3 starts spanning 19.7 IP. Reds are 50-37 (+19.5 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game in the second half of the season since 1997. Cueto is a strong rookie starter and averages 7.8 strikeouts per 9 innings to rank among all National League pitching leaders. Ranks among all NL rookie pitching leaders in wins (7), strikeouts (91), starts (18) and innings pitched with 105. In these 105.0 innings has 91 strikeouts and 38 walks and according to Elias Sports Bureau, Cueto is the only pitcher since 1900 to record as many as 18 strikeouts without a walk in his first 2 career starts (threw 16.0 innings and recorded 22 strikeouts before issuing his first career walk, to Pit’s Nate McLouth on 4/13 in his third start.).
Jeff Scott Sports
Tampa Bay +110 over NY YANKS
The Rays are 11-2 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record and 26-10 in their last 36 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, while the Yanks are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Edwin Jackson comes in off 3 solid outings as he 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 3 starts, allowing just a .262 OBP and posting a 1.00 WHIP in the 3 games. Edwin hasn't pitched that bad on the road, going 2-2 with a 4.07 ERA, plus he is 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA in his day starts. Edwin is also 2-2 with a 4.72 ERA in 6 career starts vs the Yanks, including a 1-1 mark with a 3.00 ERA in 3 starts vs them this year. Sidney Ponson is just 8-9 in his career vs the Rays with a 4.32 ERA, while in his lone start vs them this year he allowed 5 ER ojn 12 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings of work. For the year Sidney has a solid 5-1 mark with a 4.18 ERA overall and even though he is 2-1 in his last 5 starts the ERA is pretty high at 6.00, while he has allowed teams a .444 OBP to go along with his 2.13 WHIP. That's mainly due to the run support the Yanks and Rangers have been giving him, but I'm not expecting big run support today as the Yanks offense has been sputtering of late. In the last 10 games only once has the Yanks offense shown up and that was the 18 run outburst vs the Rangers in Sidney's last start. Now if you take out that game then the Yanks offense has put just 2.6 rpg in the other 9 games. Even with the 18 runs the Yanks are scoring just 4.1 rpg and hitting only .225. Despite being shutout last night, the Tampa offense still has put 6.1 rpg on the board in their last 14 games and the score 5.2 rpg on the road for the year, including 6.2 rpg in their last 13 away from home. This is an important game for the Rays, as they do not want to get swept here by the Yanks, so look for their offense to hit Ponson hard, while Edwin keep the anemic Yankee offense at bay. Tampa gets the win easily.
BOSTON/ Minnesota Over 9
The Over is 12-4 in Hernandezs last 16 starts overall and 11-3 in his last 14 starts as an underdog, while the Over is 20-9-1 in Becketts last 30 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 4-1 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite of -201 or greater, plus the Over is 17-7 in Barrys last 24 games behind home plate. Boston has been of home fav of -201 or higher 6 times this year and those 6 games have averaged 12.7 rpg, including 17 rpg in Beckett's 2 starts as a home fav that high. For the year has an ERA of 3.70 with his overall starts averaging 8.8 rpg, while he has a 4.72 ERA at home with those starts putting up 11 rpg. Josh also has a 3.97 ERA in day games, with those games averaging right at totals total of 9. Livan Hernandez comes in with a 5.18 ERA overall, with those games averaging 10.2 rpg, including a 7.00 ERA on the road, with those games averaging 10.9 rpg. Livan has also struggled in his 4 day starts, posting a 6.95 ERA, with those games averaging 10.8 rpg. Livan must now face a Boston offense that may be struggling at the momemnt, but one that still score 5.6 rpg and hits .290 at home. Boston also scores 6.5 rpg for Josh at home and 5.1 rpg in his day starts. The Twins offense has not been struggling of late as they come in avaerging 6.1 rpg and hitting .325 in their last 7. For the year the Twins put up 4.7 rpg on the road and 5.1 rpg vs righty starters, plus they score 5.5 rpg for Livan in his overall starts. Boston's home games average 9.3 rpg, while the Twins road games average 10.1 rpg. All im looking for is a least 4 runs from the Twins and with Boston allowing 4.5 rpg in his home starts and the Twins scoring 4.8 rpg in Livan's road starts, I say that 4 runs is clearly attainable. On the flipside I feel that with the way Livan struggles on the road, plus the fact that they allow 6.1 rpg in his road starts, I see Boston being able to get no less than 6 runs. Should be an easy OVER here.
Wunderdog
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Pick: Chicago White Sox -127
Brian Bannister gave the Royals a big lift last year finishing 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA on a bad team. This season he looked even more impressive to start as he held a 0.86 ERA through his first three starts and then the bottom fell out. Bannister has pitched to a 6.18 ERA since, and has allowed five or more earned runs in over half his starts since then. Consequently, the Royals have been 5-10 in those 15 starts. Javier Vasquez has pitched rather consistently all year having allowed six hits or less in 10 of his 18 starts. The White Sox have been on a tear, winners of 10 of their last 12. We like the matchup in this one to ride the Chi-Sox on the road in Kansas City.
Stephen Nover
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Unlike other teams, the Minnesota Twins usually don't beat themselves. They have an outstanding manager, Ron Gardenhire, know how to manufacture runs and have one of the best closers, Joe Nathan.
At this high price, the Twins are worth a shot. Boston has beaten Minnesota by one run in each of the first two games in this series. Still, the Twins have won 19 of their last 26 ames.
Reflective of the price is Boston's dominance at Fenway Park and a starting pitching matchup of Livan Hernandez versus Josh Beckett.
Hernandez doesn't have good-looking statistics, but the Twins are 13-6 in his starts this season. Hernandez has turned in 10 quality starts. His location has been better lately.
The Red Sox are without slugger David Ortiz (wrist) and outfielder J.D. Drew isn't in the starting lineup today because of a sore back. The Red Sox also probably won't be able to use closer Jonathan Papelbon. He's pitched in each of the past three days and in four of the last five days.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on LA Angels -139
The Angels have been one of the safest bets in baseball in the road chalk role and we'll back them in this spot tonight at a decent price. The Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record, 10-3 in their last 13 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, and 12-5 in their last 17 road games. The Halos have also shelled lefties and we have uncovered some solid numbers to support them against lefty starters as well. The Angels are 16-5 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter. LA is 7-3 in Weaver's last 10 starts and they have to be smelling another win tonight.
DREW GORDON
Houston -120 at PITTSBURGH
Astros are desperate for a win, and their prayers may have been answered with their most favorable pitching match up of the series tonight in Pittsburgh. I'll be the first admit Brian Moehler last start, at Atlanta, was ugly. But, when you consider his 3 starts prior to that loss were rock-solid (allowing 1 run apiece in each), let's not get too caught up in one bad start
While Moehler's numbers won't blow anybody away, when compared to John Van Benschoten, he's the man! Tell me, what has Benschoten ever done to make you believe he can get it done at this level? He has the distinction of having the worst ERA in Major League history (9.04) of pitchers with over 75 innings of work! In his last start this season, at Cincinnati, he got rocked for 5 runs in just 2 1/3 innings... Need I say more?!
As a final note, you know the 'Stros will be fighting hard to avoid the sweep here, and with Benschoten on the mound, they smell blood in the water! Houston preferes hitting lefties, but in the case of Benschoten, it doesn't matter as he serves up meatball after meatball. In the end, look for the 'Stros offense to get back on track tonight, while Moehler takes care of business in this one.
Take Houston behind Moehler over Pittsburgh and Van Benschoten in this MLB match up.
3♦ HOUSTON
Pupsnchalk Sports
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins will try to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox this afternoon in Fenway and will send veteran pitcher Livian Hernandez to the mound to assist in doing so.
Livian has struggled recently after a strong start to the season. Even still he is 9-5 on the season with the Twins going 13-6 in games he has started this year. His last two road starts have been horrendous to say the least, thus the high price tag attached to the Red Sox. But in our opinion Livian is certainly a servicable pitcher who already owns a win against the Red Sox this season. This will be his first start in Fenway however since 2006 when he was with the Nationals. If Livian can navigate his way through the early innings without too much damage as we expect, the Twins will have a good shot at avoiding the sweep.
But to do so they must score runs and that will not be easy as the Red Sox send Josh Beckett to the mound. Beckett and the Sox have dropped his last two home starts however, including a 10-6 loss to the O's as a -206 favorite. In his last start against the Twins he dropped the cash for his backers as a heavy -243 favorite last season against a Twins team who did not have the talent this one has. Beckett could struggle this afternoon against a Twins team hitting .327 against right handers the last 10 games. Out of his twelve home runs allowed on the season, seven of those have come in day games. This will be the first time the Twinkies have been tagged as a pup of +200 all season. In the same role last year they went 2-0.Play on the Minnesota Twins for 1 unit.
Tony C's Sports
10 Dimes D'Rays +110
NSA Early
10* Minny/Bost UNDER 9
10* Tampa Bay +
Ben Burns
ANA (-135) vs TEX
The Rangers won a close one yesterday but the Angels should have the advantage this evening. Despite losing yesterday, the Angels are still 16-6 against left-handed starters this season. Today, for the second day in a row, they'll face a southpaw, Michael Ballard, making his major league debut. Ballard's minor league numbers were OK, as he had a 3.97 ERA this season. That was at Double-A though. Facing the best team in the AL West is obviously a big step up in class. Even if Ballard can pitch well, he's unlikely to outduel Weaver, as he's been red hot lately. Indeed, Weaver has a 1.45 ERA his last three starts and he has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five outings. Additionally, in his last two starts against Texas, Weaver has gone a full 14 inning without allowing a single earned run. During that 2-game stretch, he had 12 Ks to just two walks and allowed a mere seven hits. This season's lone start against the Rangers resulted in a 2-1 victory. Weaver should continue to pitch well and he should get more run support than that this evening. Consider a play on the LA ANGELS
Dave Malinsky
GAME: Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Over 5*
It took a while last night before the fireworks got started between these two, but when all was said and done there were 15 runs on the board, including a 5-5 after nine innings that was a clear “regulation” Over. Tonight we expect a similar flow, with both teams having a chance to score early against the starters, and then perhaps even better opportunities against the bullpens later in the game. In fact, those bullpens may prove to be the real keys.
We have written a few times in recent weeks about Javier Vazquez, and how the notion that he has solved his home run issues was merely a mirage. He indeed got through his first five starts this season without allowing one over 30.2 innings. But much like the cold April weather was hurting the Chicago offense, it was also making Vazquez look a little too good. Since that opening salvo it has been 15 home runs in 75 innings, and four times in his last eight starts he has allowed multiple blasts. It has been just a 2-4/5.62 overall for him in that span, and Ozzie Guillen did not do him any favors when he left him out there for a 121-pitch complete game in Thursday’s loss to Oakland. He has not thrown more than that in a start since September of 2006. That leaves him vulnerable here both from a quality and quantity standpoint, which begins to bring those bullpen issues into play.
The White Sox finally had to put Bobby Jenks on the DL, and that is particularly awkward for tonight. Boone Logan, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton and Nick Masset all worked more than an inning last night, and while current closer Scott Linebrink only worked one, it was a draining 28-pitch failure. He has now been scored on in each of his last four appearances, blowing a pair of saves in the process, and off of those 28 pitches, and a laborious 26 to finish vs. Oakland on Sunday, he brings serious issues to the table.
There are similar issues for the Royals. One of the reasons why we chart statistics like BABIP so much (“Batting Average on Balls in Play”) is that it can point out when some pitchers are as much lucky as they are good. That was the case with Brian Bannister, and the 12-9/3.87 that he put together in 2007. Instead of it being a sign of a promising young talent, it was as much a case of someone holding the dice for a long time - of the 90 pitchers that worked at least 150 innings, only A. J. Burnett and Chris Young were lower in that category. Now Bannister’s ERA has risen to 5.15, as many of those balls now find openings, and despite working 57 fewer innings than in 2007 so far, his home run count has almost equalled LY’s allowance. His last two starts have seen him tagged for 14 runs (13 earned) over 9.2 innings, with 205 pitches needed to merely get that far. That creates some quality and quantity issues for him tonight, which can exacerbate a Kansas City bullpen in even worse shape than their Chicago counterparts.
The Royals have had some solid performers coming out of the pen, but none can be counted on here. All-Star Joakim Soria has worked back-to-back games, throwing 49 pitches, and almost assuredly will be held out. Key lefty set-up man Ron Mahay is off of back-to-back nights and 40 pitches. Key right-handed set-up man Ramon Ramirez is off of back-to-back and 35. And fellow set-up men Horacio Ramirez and Robinson Tejeda both worked multiple innings last night. In other words, there is not a single quality fresh arm available, which is a real problem if Bannister can not eat some innings effectively, and that makes it even easier for us to get this one home.
ROBERT FERRINGO
7-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Minnesota at Boston
Note: This is our Total of the Month. If this line moves, it is a play at 9.5 but for 5.5 Units.
There's pretty much no way that Livan Hernandez isn't getting lit up today. The wind is blowing out - severely - in Fenway, and Josh Beckett has been an 'over' pitcher all season. Also, the Twins have been a hardcore 'over' team over the last month and they have been raking against right-handed hurlers. Josh Beckett's ERA is a full run higher at home than on the road and Livan has an ERA of nearly 7.00 in his day starts. We have a nice, tight ump behind the dish and I can see a lot of balls leaving the yard.
1.5-Unit Play. Minnesota (+1.5, +110) over Boston
1.5-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-145) over Cleveland
1.5-Unit Play. Take Florida (+100) over San Diego
1.5-Unit Play. Take Seattle (+150) over Oakland
1.5-Unit Play. Take Kansas City Royals (+115) over Chicago
1.5-Unit Play. Take Cubs (-1.5, -110) over Reds
1.5-Unit Play. ‘Under’ 7.5 Atlanta at Los Angeles Dodgers