Nite Owl Sports
Tigers @ Kansas City Royals - Wednesday
Pick: 3 units Under 9.5
We really like the under 9.5 runs here, for lots of reasons, and making it a 3 unit pick is about as high as we usually go with a totals pick.
First of all, while Detroit has been scoring well in this series, games 1 and 2 were night games, where Tigers score well (a whopping 6 RPG), but this is a day game, and Tigers offense is much less efficient (just 3.7 RPG) in daylight. And Tigers' worst hitting mode is away vs RHPs (just 3.9 RPG). But that's not all, as Detroit is just 3.7 RPG vs power pitchers, and an even worse 3.3 RPG vs FB pitchers, and KC SP Greinke is both. So it's not surpprising that he is already 2-0 TY vs Detroit with only 3 runs given up in 13 IP. In Greinke's L3 starts vs Tigers, he is 3-0, yielding just 3 ER in 17 IP. And one more thing about Greinke -- he is pitching today in his best mode TY, at home (where he is 3-0 with a 2.4 ERA) and in a day game (where he has a 3.15 ERA).
But it's not like everything here favors KC, as Detroit SP Gallaraga has had great #s all year on the road and in daytime starts, with a 2.85 ERA in 60 IP on the road, and an even better 1.55 ERA in 29 daytime IP. Not surprisingly, the under is 6-3 when he pitches away and 4-0 when he pitches in the day. Looking at his last 5 road starts, 3 have been very strong, and the other two decent. While Gallaraga has not yet faced KC in his short but promising MLB career, he should do well in this game, as he is pitching in his best mode (away day).
So take the under here
INDIAN COWBOY COMP
Brewers/Cardinals Under 8.5
Sabathia goes once again for his new team whom he is 3-0 with, with eras of 3, 2, and 1 as it has gotten better with each start as he has faced off against Colorado, Cincy and San Fran in the NL and has done very well against all 3. Looper has had a rough go of it in his last 4 of 5 starts, and he is 1-1 against Milwaukee this year, remember, when he faced them at home he had a 1.8 era and when he faced them on the road he had a 6+ era. Looper has pitched well at home of late as well, if anything a lean on the cards here as decent dog and a lean on the under as well. The bottom line is the Cardinals face Sabathia the first time here and he is likely to continue pitching well for his new team while Looper steps up to the plate himself while the under is 4-1 for the Brewers when they face a team with a winning record and the under is 4-0 for Looper of late when he is a home underdog
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Richard -120
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BLOWOUT WINNER
NY Yankees w/Mussina -158
MIKE ROSE
2* Tiger/Royals Under 9.5
FAIRWAY JAY
3* Twins/Yankees Under 9
ROBERT FERRINGO
2-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 San Diego at Cincinnati
Lots of reasons to like this play right here. First, Bronson Arroyo is a mess during the day, posting a healthy 6.75 ERA in his five early starts this year. On top of that, Greg Maddux has a 5.29 ERA in his last three games and a 6.27 ERA on the road this year. The wind is blowing out to right field today and is pretty strong (12 mph), which should be a boon to all of Cincy?s left-handed power hitters. James Hoye is behind the dish and has a hitter-friendly zone. He?s just 8-15 against the total this year but I think that his strike-to-ball ratio, and his past performance, are going to make him a solid regression candidate over baseball?s second half.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+150) over New York Yankees
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+1.5, -135) over New York YankeesThis isn't a true chase because I don't want to "Let it ride" on the Twins. But if you're feeling frisky, or can't play run lines, I would suggest going with 3 Units on the moneyline here. I do think the Twins find a way to get one in this series, and I think they manufacture a W today.
4.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 (+100) Washington at San Francisco
Note: This is our Total of the Week. I would wait on this game to see if it drops to 8.0, as I believe it may.
Kevin Correia has a robust 5.81 ERA on the season, including 7.20 in his last three outings. His opponent, rookie Colin Balester, is sporting a nice 5.87 ERA in this three outings this year. So we have two bad pitchers on the hill. And to add fuel and a spark, give us Gary Darling behind the dish. Darling is 14-6 against the total this year and 14 of his last 19 games have seen double-digits in runs. In all of his ‘under’ games this year there was at least one ace on the hill – Hallday, Lincecum, Duchscherer, Oswalt, and Martinez. We don’t have that today. The ‘over’ is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in San Francisco, 7-1 in Washington’s last eight as an underdog, 13-6 in San Fran’s last 19 against the N.L. East, and 12-4 in Washington’s last 16 on the road against a poor home team. Two other factors that help our cause: 1) Washington has no closer, meaning their entire bullpen is now unsettled, and 2) the wind is blowing straight out at 12 mph tonight. Hopefully that will help us clear a couple of long balls.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-130) over Pittsburgh
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Pittsburgh at Houston
There are about four different systems that suggest a play on the Astros today. I am going rather light on them, considering, because they looked absolutely pathetic last night. However, Brian Moehler has been a nice surprise for the Astros and he has given his team a shot in every one of his games. Ian Snell – not so much.
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Detroit at Kansas City
Despite how they've been swinging them, these clubs have been strong 'under' plays all season and I think we'll find another one here today. The wind is blowing in severely today, at 14 mph, and each team has one of its better pitchers on the hill in Grienke and Galaragga. We have a nice 'under' ump in Mike Estabrook (3-10) and I think we're going to catch the Tigers looking ahead to their series with Chicago this weekend.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 San Diego at Cincinnati
Note: Bump to 2.5-Unit Play.
Lots of reasons to like this play right here. First, Bronson Arroyo is a mess during the day, posting a healthy 6.75 ERA in his five early starts this year. On top of that, Greg Maddux has a 5.29 ERA in his last three games and a 6.27 ERA on the road this year. The wind is blowing out to right field today and is pretty strong (12 mph), which should be a boon to all of Cincy’s left-handed power hitters. James Hoye is behind the dish and has a hitter-friendly zone. He’s just 8-15 against the total this year but I think that his strike-to-ball ratio, and his past performance, are going to make him a solid regression candidate over baseball’s second half.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+150) over New York Yankees
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+1.5, -135) over New York Yankees
This isn't a true chase because I don't want to "Let it ride" on the Twins. But if you're feeling frisky, or can't play run lines, I would suggest going with 3 Units on the moneyline here. I do think the Twins find a way to get one in this series, and I think they manufacture a W today.
1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (+120) over New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+115) over San Francisco
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Atlanta at Florida
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 10.5 Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Boston at Seattle
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
CHISOX -115 over Texas
The Rangers are 4-14 in Millwoods last 18 starts as a road underdog and 5-12 in their last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter, while the White Sox are 22-5 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 14-5 in their last 19 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, plus the Home team is 11-3 in Hoyes last 14 games behind home plate. The Rangers have called up Richard Clayton from AAA Charlotte, where he was 6-0 with a 2.37 ERA in 6 games. He will be facing a Texas offense that has really been struggling on this road trip. Texas comes in with teh top ranked scoring offense, but in the first 5 games of this trip they have averaged just 2.2 rpg, plus this team does not hit lefty starters all that well as they have scored just 4.3 rpg vs them on the year. The Rangers also score just 4.8 rpg and hit just .258 on the road this year. The ChiSox offense has not been sputtering of late, as they come in hitting .336 and scoring 6.9 rpg in their last 7 games, plus they score 5.7 rpg at home and 5.2 rpg vs righty starters. Kevin Milwood has been slumping of late, going 1-3 with a 7.09 ERA in his last 5 starts. Kevin is 2-5 with a 5.18 ERA on the road and 1-4 with a 2.81 ERA in 8 career starts vs the Sox, including a 1-2 mark with a 5.60 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. The rangers offense has taken a vacation at the moment and the Sox offense has not. The Rangers Struggle on the road and the Sox do not struggle at home. Even with te rookie pitcher on the mound I expect the Sox to win the rubber match of this series.
CINCINNATI -132 over San Diego
The Padres are 3-15 in their last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-16 in their last 21 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, while the Reds are 31-13 in their last 44 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 10-2 in Arroyos last 12 starts as a home favorite. Bronson Arroyo got off to a horrible start this year, but he has been pitching much better of late. Bronson comes in with a 4-0 mark and a 2.88 ERA in his last 4 starts and he has gone 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA in his last 6 home starts. He is 3-4 with a 3.98 ERA in his career vs the Padres and he is 1-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 1 start vs the Pads this year. Greg Maddux is 14-5 with a 3.40 ERA in his last 19 starts vs the Reds, but he is just 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA in 6 starts at Great American Ballpark. A little side stat on his starts at GAB, He has allowed 10 HR's there in just 32.1 innings of work. Greg has really struggled this year, going 3-8 with a 4.21 ERA overall, including a 2-5 mark with a 6.27 ERA on the road, plus he is 0-3 with a 9.97 ERA in his last 5 starts. The Padre offense comes in scoring just 3.9 rpg in their last 10 games and they score just 4 rpg on the road and 4.1 rpg in day games. The Pads are 12-18 in day games this year. The Reds offense has been good of late, as they have put up 6.1 rpg in their last 10 games overall, plus they also score 4.8 rpg in day games on the year. Bronson has turned his season around, while Maddux is headed the other way . The Reds take the rubber match here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
NY YANKS -148 over Minnesota
The Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. American League East and 6-21 in the last 27 meetings in New York, while the Yankees are 40-11 in their last 51 during game 3 of a series and 11-3 in Mussinas last 14 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Yanks are hot right now as they have started the 2nd half 5-0 and they have now won their last 9 in a row at home. Yankee pitching has been awesome in their last 9 at home, allowing just 1.9 rpg over that stretch, while the offense has been solid, scoring 5.2 rpg. The Yanks have in fact scored more runs (20) in the first 2 games of this series, than they have allowed (17) in their 9 game home winning streak. The Yanks have also been awesome in game 3 of a series this year, going 21-5 overall, including 14-1 at home and 9-3 if of a win. Mike Mussina gets the ball for them today and he has been very good thiy year, going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA overall, including a 7-5 mark with a 3.53 ERA at home. Mike kas really bewen rolling in his last 9 starts, going 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA over that stretch, plus he is 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA in his last 21 starts vs the Twins. Glen Perkins has been decent for teh Twins with a 7-2 mark and a 3.84 ERA overall, including a 3-0 mark with a 3.52 ERA on the road, but he was hit hard in his only appearance vs the Yanks this year, allowing 5 ER on 10 hits and 2 walks in just 4 innings of work. The Yanks really play well vs the Twins at home and they are super in game 3 of a series and I expect both trends to continue after this one. Get out the Broom.
Detroit/ Kansas City Under 9.5
The Under is 8-2-1 in Tigers last 11 during game 3 of a series. and 5-1 in Galarragas last 6 road starts, while the Under is 18-3 in Greinkes last 21 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game and 7-1-1 in Greinkes last 9 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, plus the Under is 14-3 in Estabrooks last 17 games behind home plate. Armando Gallaraga has been one of the more consistent starters for Tigers this year, as he comes in with a 3.41 ERA overall, including a 2.65 ERA on the road and a 1.55 ERA in day games. His road starts this year have averaged 8.9 rpg, while his day starts have averaged 7.4 rpg. The KC offense is avergaing 5 rpg over their last 7 games, but just 3.3 rpg in their last 6 games at home. For the year the Royals score just 4.3 rpg at home, 4 rpg vs righty starters and 4.5 rpg in day games. The Detroit offense has been on fire lately, but they still average just 4.3 on the road and 3.7 rpg in day games. Detroit day games have gone 23-12 to the Under with an average of 8.2 rpg being scored. Zach Greinke has pitched very well at home this year, with a 2.39 ERA, plus he has a 3.16 ERA in day games. Zach's starts this year have avaerged 8.4 rpg overall, icluding 7.4 rpg in his last 3 starts and 7.5 rpg in his day starts. Zach also has a 3.39 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Tigers, including a 1.58 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. Both pitchers have been solid this year and should be able to slow down a couple of hot offenses enough to get a comfortable win on the Under.
3G SPORTS
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Under
Somebody has to actually win this ball game folks. Its a battle of 2 of the worst teams in baseball. One team struggles mightily on the road, the other team is the worst home team in all of a baseball. There is something that people are ignoring though. Playing at home is still an advantage. When two teams are so close, when the line is so close you look for any little advantages you can obtain. I don't expect many runs to be scored and I am all over the UNDER tonight in the bay.
Play on the UNDER
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Phillies/Mets Over
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL DIAMOND DOMINATOR WINNER
NY Mets w/Maine -133
Pupsnchalk Sports
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Detroit Tigers
The way the Detroit Tigers are swinging the bats right now, it's hard to get in their way and make a play against them. Zack Grienke will get the call for the Royals and the assignment of slowing down the Tigers as the Royals hope to avoid a sweep this afternoon.
The Tigers have scored a total of 26 runs in the first two games of the series and will face a pitcher in Grienke who is coming off of a rough outing. The Tigers roster has a combined OPS. of .814 against the right hander who is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in his last four starts. Grienke won his first two outings against the Tigers earlier this season, hence the weak line. We expect the Tigers to get to Grienke today with their offense clicking on all cylinders.
Armando Galarraga will be making his first start against the Royals and the right hander has been solid away from home this season. He is 5-2 with a 2.85 ERA in his road games with the Tigers going 6-3 in those starts. He has been spectacular under the sun in day games this year as well going 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA. The Tigers have yet to drop a day game start of his in fact going 5-0 in those starts.
The Royals took the first six games between the two this season before dropping the last two. The Tigers are certainly aware of that and will be motivated to return the favor and complete the sweep. The Tigers are 10-4 in their in game 3's this year following a win in their previous game.Play on the Detroit Tigers for 1 unit.
Matty O'Shea Triple Dime NL TV Play Of the Month.
NYM/PHI Over 9
After watching the New York bullpen implode in the ninth inning of Tuesday's 8-6 loss to the Phillies, you have to wonder about the team's mindset going into this game. Four different relievers for the Mets surrendered six runs trying to fill in for injured closer Billy Wagner. That definitely works in our favor here along with the fact that both starting pitching are certainly capable of giving up a lot of runs early on. New York's John Maine has seen at least 10 runs scored in each of his last five home starts, with all of them going OVER the total. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's Brett Myers returns from the minors and saw an average of 14 runs scored in his last two road starts. The OVER is also 7-1 in Myers' last eight starts against the Mets, and he is 0-6 on the road with an 8.18 ERA. Look for a high-scoring affair here and bet the OVER as my Triple Dime NL TV Play Of the Month.
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH
Milwaukee w/Sabathia -139
Erin Rynning
Boston / Seattle Under 8