Larry Ness
Oddsmaker Error
The Braves were held to just one hit by Rick VandenHurk and three Florida relievers in last night's 4-0 loss in Miami. The game points out just how far the Braves have fallen since being an 'automatic' playoff team for seemingly forever. However, the Braves fell to 47-53 with last night's loss and the team is well on its way to missing the postseason for the third consecutive year. Meanwhile, the Marlins have bounced back from a 71-91 season in '07. They are 53-47 through 100 games this year and tied with the Mets, just one game behind the first-place Phillies. Even more impressively, the Marlins are plus-$1,519 vs the moneyline, making them MLB's second-biggest "money-makers" Y-T-D! Speaking of the moneyline, the Braves own one of MLB's worst road records (16-33) and no team has lost more money way from home, with the Braves checking in at minus-$1,872 in away games this year. Tim Hudson gets the start for Atlanta and Hudson has not come close to matching the success he had in Oakland with the A's, since coming to the Braves in 2005. Hudson was a star beginning with his rookie year of 1999 in Oakland (went 11-2 that season), going 92-39 (.702) through 2004. However, since coming to Atlanta prior to the 2005 season (including his 10-7 mark this year), he's gone just 53-38 with the Braves, for a winning percentage of only .582. He, like his teammates, has struggled on the road in '08, as he'll take a 2-6 mark in 11 road games into this contest (team is 2-9!) with a 4.15 ERA. Matching up against Hudson will be Florida's Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has been hit hard in two starts this year by the Braves (10.1 IP / 21 hits / 13 ERs / 11.32 ERA) but prior to that he had gone 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA in his first four starts vs Atlanta. Nolasco lost his last time out to Moyer and the Phils (Moyer is 10-0 in 10 career starts vs the Marlins) but prior to that had gone 8-1 (team was 10-1) in his previous 11 starts. Heading into last Friday's night start vs the Phillies (Nolasco allowed four ERs in seven inngs), he had been 5-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his previous seven starts (Marlins had won all seven!). Given all that and considering Hudson's and the Braves' road struggles in '08, there is NO reason for Atlanta to be favored in this one.
Oddsmaker's Error on the Fla Marlins.
Great Lakes
5* St. Louis
Tony Karpinski
10* NL GAME of the WEEK: ATLANTA BRAVES
I like the Braves to bounce back here tonight. We told you two nights ago that the Braves would be able to knock off the Marlins in the first game of the series. Tonight we are telling you they will take care of business again after getting 1-hit last night.
It is a nice pitching match-up in Florida, but call us crazy we will still take our chances with Tim Hudson. Tim Hudson has been great this season. His name has gone under the radar all season. A lot has to do with the fact that the Braves have under-achieved for the most part and all the attention has been on Chipper Jones.
Tim Hudson is 10-7 this season with an ERA of 3.31. He just doesn't allow base-runners or runners to run when they do reach base. Only three out of every ten batters even get on base against him. We'll back the BRAVOS in this one tonight.
BOB AKMENS
4* Baltimore Orioles
10* New York Mets