ROCCO SPACAMURO
150* Blue Jays
Dwayne Bryant
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins +102
The Twins have won the first two games in this four-game series to pull to within a half-game of the White Sox for the AL Central lead. This is the 10th time since June 25 the Twins have moved within a game of first with a chance to take at least a share of the division lead, but each of the previous nine times they've remained in second place. Tonight appears to finally be their time to take the lead.
Minnesota has won all four of its meetings against Chicago at the Metrodome this season, and is a major league-best 17-3 at home since June 17. Chicago slugger Jermaine Dye is 1-for-7 in the first two games of this series after batting .450 (9-for-20) with three home runs and seven RBIs in his previous five games. He is 1-for-15 (.067) at the Metrodome this season.
White Sox starter Gavin Floyd has better overall numbers than Twins starter Livan Hernandez this season. But when we look at how these two perform on the road and at home, we see a very different picture.
Floyd owns a 5.29 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and .373 OOBP in his nine road starts this season. To make matters worse, the White Sox gave Floyd just 3.3 runs per game of support in those road starts. After pitching 7 1/3 scoreless innings in a win over Oakland on July 5, Floyd is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in his last three starts. He has lost each of his two career starts at the Metrodome.
The Twins have won 10 of Livan Hernandez's 12 starts at the Metrodome this season, with the right-hander going 8-1 with a 3.91 ERA in those outings. Hernandez has also benefitted from 6.7 runs per game of support in his home starts.
Take Minnesota
Stephen Nover
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are tough to back these days, having been gutted by injuries and dealing away their best power hitter, Mark Teixeira.
But this is a good spot to take Atlanta because of the pitching matchup. Jair Jurrjens has come into his own this season with a 10-5 record and 3.02 ERA. Jurrjens is pitching well lately with a 4-2 mark and 1.84 ERA in his last seven starts.
St. Louis is pitching former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter. His last big league appearance was opening day of last year. Carpenter is trying to come back from an elbow ligament transplant, commonly referred to as Tommy John surgery. Do you know of any pitcher who has been effective right away returning from that serious reconstruction surgery? I sure don't.
Carpenter has only had two minor league stints. His command isn't up to standard yet. He's being rushed into this start because the Cardinals brass wants to provide a spark and Adam Wainwright isn't ready to come back from a finger injury yet.
Yet even manager Tony LaRussa admits Carpenter could have used two more minor league rehab appearances. He said he's not expecting Carpenter to be sharp. Most likely, Carpenter will be on a tight pitch count. St. Louis' bullpen, especially its middle relief, has been disappointing.
The Braves are fielding a makeshift lineup these days missing injured Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and now Teixeira. But at least the pressure is off because the Braves know they are playing for the future. Their starters should be relaxed.
Atlanta also is worthy of some respect when playing at Turner Field. They've slumped lately at home, but still are nine games above .500 when playing at Turner Field.
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (63-44) at Milwaukee (60-47)
The Cubs gun for their fourth straight win when they send Ryan Dempster (11-4, 2.99 ERA) to the hill against southpaw Manny Parra (9-3, 3.72) and the suddenly slumping Brewers as this four-game set continues at Miller Park.
Chicago has scored back-to-back upsets in the first two games of this series, winning 6-4 on Monday and 7-1 on Tuesday. The Cubs have won three in a row overall and five of their last seven, increasing their lead in the N.L. Central to three games over Milwaukee. Lou Piniella’s squad is also on runs of 9-4 against lefty starters and 15-7 when Dempster takes the mound.
Milwaukee has followed a seven-game winning streak by losing four of its last five – all at home – including the last three in a row. However, the Brewers have won eight of their last nine versus right-handed starters (the lone loss coming last night).
The road team has won six of the eight series meetings between these rivals this season.
Dempster has given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts, but Chicago is just 5-4 during this stretch. Also, even though he’s posted a 1.29 ERA in his last two road starts at Houston and San Francisco – both Cubs wins – Dempster is just 1-3 with a 3.42 ERA in nine road outings this year. On the bright side, he’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts against the Brewers this year (both at home).
Parra has a 2.20 ERA over his last seven starts, six of which have been quality outings. However, Milwaukee is 1-3 in his last four efforts after going 6-0 in his previous six outings. At home, Parra is 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA, and he’s yet to face Chicago this season.
The over is on runs of 9-2 for Milwaukee at home, 9-1-2 in this rivalry at Miller Park, 5-1-1 in this series overall, 6-2 for the Cubs overall and 5-1 for the Cubs on the road,
ATS ADVANTAGE:OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (66-40) at Boston (61-47)
The Angels look to complete a three-game sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway Park when they hand the ball to All-Star Joe Saunders (13-5, 3.10), who is slated to oppose Boston ace Josh Beckett (9-7, 3.83).
Los Angeles, which owns baseball’s best record, improved to 11-2 in its last 13 games with Tuesday’s 6-2 win in Boston, which followed Monday’s 7-5 victory. The Halos are also on streaks of 6-1 on the road, 8-1 against the A.L. East, 8-1 against right-handed starters and 7-0 against the Red Sox. Additionally, they’re 36-15 in Saunders’ last 51 starts, including 15-5 this year.
Boston has now dropped seven of 11 games since the All-Star break, and the team is 1-4 on its current homestand. Also, not only have the Sox lost seven straight games to Los Angeles, but four of those defeats have come at Fenway Park.
Saunders has given up three earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts, including a 4-2 home win over Boston on July 19, when the southpaw surrendered two runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings. He’s 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA in five career starts against the Red Sox, with the Angels winning all five games. Finally, Saunders has been lights out on the highway this year, going 7-3 with a 2.41 ERA in 10 starts.
Beckett gave up just one run on nine hits over seven innings on Friday against the Yankees, yet suffered the 1-0 home loss. Boston is just 3-5 in the right-hander’s last eight outings, including 1-3 at home. Also, Beckett opposed Saunders on July 19 in Anaheim and yielded all four runs on nine hits in eight innings, taking the 4-2 loss. Prior to that, he had 1.59 ERA in five career starts – including one playoff game – against Los Angeles.
The over is 10-5-2 in the last 17 series meetings in Boston and 6-3-1 in Boston’s last 10 at Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Chicago White Sox (59-45) at Minnesota (58-47)
The Twins, winners of four in a row, will try to overtake the White Sox for first place in the A.L. Central when veteran Livan Hernandez (10-7, 5.31) opposes Chicago’s Gavin Floyd (10-6, 3.57) in the third game of this four-game series at the Metrodome.
Minnesota rolled to a 7-0 victory Monday night, then rallied from a 4-0 deficit on Tuesday en route to a 6-5 victory, moving to within a half-game of the White Sox in the Central. The Twins, who had lost five in a row to Chicago prior to Monday, are now on a 20-5 run at home. Meanwhile, the White Sox have followed a four-game winning streak with three straight losses. They’re also 7-16 in their last 23 on the road and 1-11 in their last 12 on artificial turf.
The host is 11-2 in this rivalry in 2008.
Hernandez has yielded 20 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 32 1/3 innings, resulting in a beefy 5.57 ERA. However, he’s managed to alternate wins and losses in his last six starts, including a 5-4 defeat at Cleveland on Friday. On the bright side, the right-hander is 8-1 with a 3.91 ERA at home this year, and Minnesota is 10-2 in his 12 outings at the Metrodome.
Hernandez has faced the White Sox twice in Chicago this year with completely different results, pitching a complete game in a 13-1 victory on May 7, then getting rocked for seven runs in four innings of an 11-2 loss exactly one month later.
Floyd is 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA in three starts against Minnesota this year, allowing just six runs (five earned) in 21 1/3 innings. On the downside, Floyd is 3-4 with a 5.29 ERA on the road this year, and the White Sox are 4-9 in his last 13 outings on the highway.
The over is 15-6-1 in Hernandez’s 22 starts this year, including 2-0 against Chicago. The over is also on runs of 10-2-1 for the White Sox overall, 5-1-1 for the White Sox on the road, 9-2 for the Twins on Wednesdays and 5-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE:MINNESOTA and OVER
Lenny Del Gino's Afternoon GOM
Oakland
Ben Burns
4* Oakland A's
Brandon Lang
10 Dime - Diamondbacks
10 Dime - Mets
5 Dime - Athletics
5 Dime - Brewers
FREE - White Sox
Bob Akmens
7* A's/Royals Over 8
Jimmy Sirody
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals
Play: Under
I'm shocked they opened this total 9 1/2, though I don't expect that number to last long. Washington has scored a grand total of three runs in its last five games. The Nats figure to have a tough time against lefty Jamie Moyer, who has allowed four earned runs over 20 innings in his last three starts. Moyer has been under in eight of 11 on the road with an ERA of 2.93. Tim Redding has yielded one earned run or less in three of his last four appearances. He has faced the Phillies twice this season, allowing nary an earned run in 13 1/3 innings. Redding has slipped under in 22 of 30 at home when the total was between nine and 9 1/2. Moyer has gone under in 23 of 28 versus NL teams scoring 4.3 runs or less per game. Washington has skipped under in 21 of 27 versus a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350. The Nats and Phils have been on the low side in 15 of 21 in DC. I'm making this my total Play of the Week
Alex Smart Smart Money MLB Investors Club Total 8-2 80% Run
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
Play: Over
San Diego will will send right hander Cha Seung Baek (3-4, 4.86), to the hill to face a Arizona DBacks tonight in PETCO Park. The Korean native has not pitched well at home this season, recording a 0-5 record along with a hefty 6.39 ERA /1.678 WHIP in 6 stars. Baek in his last outing, gave up four runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings of work, in Friday's 6-5 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite of getting the W last time out, he has proven to always be candidate for a beat down. With Arizona's bats heating up, he could easily end up as cannon fodder. I would not at all be surprised if the DBacks score enough runs against him to eclipse the number all by themselves. I know Dan Haren (10-5, 2.56) the DBacks starter , will obviously be tough on a light hitting, Padres team, but if he allows just a of couple runs, I still think, this contest easily goes over the very beatable number, because of the offensive damage his teammates will inflict on Baek and his bullpen. The Padres have gone over 10 straight times as a home dog and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two tilts, with the average combined score of those contests ringing in at 12 RPG .Arizona has gone over in 12 of their L/15 after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival, with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 11.4 RPG during that span. (DBacks won yesterday vs SD 3-0). Over is 8-0 in Arizonas last 8 games following a win. Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play OVER
The Prez **PREZ' 6* BEST BET TOTAL** 4-0 TOTALS RUN
St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves
Condition: Under
Umpire: Jim Joyce
Conditions: Scattered storms; 90 degrees at first pitch with light winds blowing out to center field.
Chris Carpenter will make his first start in nearly 16 months tonight. Carpenter hasn't pitched since opening day last season, when he gave up five runs in six innings of a loss to the New York Mets, and later discovered his elbow was shot, which resulted in TJ surgery. Carpenter, who went 21-5 with a 2.83 in his Cy Young season, also won three postseason games in 2006 and by all accounts his form and stuff are good. Carpenter won't be on a pitch count by Team Prez sources report that 85-90 pitches is what LaRussa and Duncan would like to get from their right-hander. In two rehab starts, Carpenter allowed two runs on five hits over 9.2 innings, striking out nine and walking five. Carpenter threw 78 pitches, 53 strikes, in his second Minor League game.
Jair Jurrjens (10-5, 3.02 ERA) has been terrific this season. The ground ball specialist held Philadelphia scoreless over eight innings of an 8-2 win on Friday. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 1.84 ERA in his last seven starts and not having faced the Cards before, he has the advantage today the first 2-3 times through the lineup..
Note: Jurrjens was brilliant against the strongest National League lineup in his last start. The righty allowed only three singles and a walk through eight innings, striking out six. We have tried to find peripherals that would offer us reasons to fade the rookie, but nothing really stands out. His K rate is a bit low to be considered a top-tiered option, but he limits walks and home runs and at the tender age of 22 he has a bright future.
Jim Joyce resides in arguably the most pitcher-friendly umpiring crew in the league. Among all active crews in the league, the combination of Tim Tschida, Jeff Nelson, Adrian Johnson and Joyce, all pitcher-friendly, have peripherals that demand backing the UNDER and avoiding the OVER. The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Joyce's last 15 games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
The Under is 7-3-1 in Cardinals last 11 games as an underdog.
The Under is 51-25-3 in Braves last 79 games vs. a right-handed starter and is 24-9-2 in Braves last 35 vs. National League Central (this was with Brian McCann, Chipper Jones and Mark Teixiera in the lineup - all absent today). The Braves are currently sporting a Triple-A offense and Jurrjens first start against the Cards lineup give him the early upper hand.
Book this UNDER Now! The 9 (-130) will move to 8.5 before this afternoon.
6 UNIT Play on UNDER in Atlanta
IndianCowboy Comp
Orioles +256 (Just 1 Unit, Typically I flat bet 3 unit selections)
After winning handily in the first game of this series as Baltimore got it done big time on the road scoring double-digit runs against the Yanks, they did it again on the road as Cabrera bounced-back with a win as the Orioles won 7-6 yesterday. Hell, anything can happen and I'm tempted to take the Orioles here at +260, why the hell not, they have won back to back ballgames on the road cashing as huge dogs, but the question is, do the Yankees lose 3 in a row at home with one of their new young studs on the mound? Sarfate makes his first start of the year at Yankee stadium, I actually expect him to pitch well as in 4 inns of work in relief appearances against the Yankees this year, he has yet to yield a run. Chamberlain has yet to give up a run to the Orioles in 4 inns of relief work this year as well, the Orioles are bats are rolling right now though, he does come off back to back quality starts at Oakland where he had a 1.5 era, he comes off 7 inns of brilliance in Boston where he didn't yield a run and the Yanks won 1-0 as he gave up just 3 hits and defeated Beckett as he struckout 9. To be honest, I'm tempted to toss 1 unit at the Orioles to yield +2.6 units, after all, normally I would toss 3 units to yield +2.73 net units and tossing 1 unit on the Orioles is not a bad idea at all here as frankly, I have this game at a 40% chance for the O's winning, sure they can get blown out, but the risk is worth it imo - after all, the Yanks haven't scored against Sarfate this year either.
Wunderdog
Kansas City at Oakland
2 units on Kansas City +119
Oakland was right in the midst of looking like a wildcard contender a couple weeks ago as they had run out to a 51-42 mark. Those nine games over .500 have since evaporated into a 2-11 slide. This slide has seen this sputtering offense produce three runs or less in nine of the 13 games. The Royals are youthful and fragile. The losses create more losses and the wins create more wins. This team has endured a 13-game losing streak and a seven-game losing streak already this season, but they have also produced two five-game winning streaks and a six-game winning streak. The Royals have also won three straight seven different times. The Royals are currently in one of those win modes after three straight and the first two in this series. We see value in KC as a dog as they get the sweep here.
Colorado at Pittsburgh
3 units on Pittsburgh +141
The Pirates have taken the first two in this series, adding to their home success as they are now 27-18 in their last 45 at home. The Rockies remain a futile road team where they stand at just 17-38 on the season - the worst road record in either league. Not sure if you could ever find value on a team that wins just 31% of the time on the road as a big favorite. That winning percentage has been an even worse 11-33 for 25% over their last 44 on the road, while Aaron Cook?s last 44 road innings have amounted to a sub par 4.30 ERA. With the Rockies scoring three runs or less in 31 of their road games or 56% of the time, it leaves little margin for error, so we will take the big odds and ride the Pirates as a juicy, valued home dog.
BeatYourBookie 50* Play
Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Oakland Athletics -125
Kansas City has lost 44 of the last 73 games vs. right-handed starters this season and pitcher, Brian Bannister is 2-5 in road starts this season with an ERA of 8.60.
Play on Oakland
ANTHONY CAPONE
KC ROYALS vs OAKLAND A's
Play: A's / KC UNDER 8.5
Today's Match up features two teams who have plenty of trouble putting runs on the board .The A's have certainly done their part playing Unders as they are averaging a meager 3.3 Runs/Game recently while the Royals are no scoring Juggernaut either averaging just a tic above 4 Runs per contest .I believe the Royals won't have an easy time scoring runs against Sean Gallagher who has made the jump from NL to Al fairly painless .The Royals have gone Under in 7 of their last 10 Ballgames .Gallagher comes into this contest with a 2.60 ERA on the year .I know he was ruffed up in his last outing vs the Rangers , but what else is new as far as the Rangers scoring prowess .For the Royals Bannister has been nothing special , but I feel against this anemic A's offense a mediocre performance is all that's needed to keep this one way Under the Total .