John Ryan
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Texas ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 114-26 for a remarkable 81% since 2002. Play on AL home favorites with a money line of -150 or more that is a good offensive team scoring >=5.2 runs/game on the season and after a combined score of 15 runs or more. Texas is 20-9 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 23-14 (+14.1 Units) against the money line versus an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. Texas starter Padilla is a perfect 6-0 (+6.7 Units) against the money line versus an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. Padilla was without his best stuff in his last start against Oakland, but he got plenty of offensive support -- 14 runs on 17 hits to be exact -- to tally the victory. In six innings of work, he allowed five runs on seven hits while walking four and fanning nine A's batters. In three starts against Seattle this year, Padilla is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA. He is just three victories shy of tying his career-high win count of 15 in 2006. I am certain the Phillies wish they still had him given their need for starting pitching. Take the Rangers
Lenny Del Genio
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Take a shot with the underdog Angels tonight as they've certainly proven they can beat Boston (7-1 vs. Red Sox this year) and Joe Saunders is a strong 7-3 on the road with a 2.41 ERA. Saunders also owns a perfect 5-0 team start record against the Sox in his career. Furthermore, the Halos have won 15 of his 20 starts this season and going back to last year 9 of 11 starts in the underdog role. Josh Beckett has been proven mortal this year, even at home, where he was outdueled by Joba Chamberlain his last time out. Take LA Angels.
Robert Ferringo
3.5-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (-130) over Washington
1.5-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (-1.5, +120) over Washington
Note: This is our Game of the Month.
The crux of this play lies on the fact that the Washington Nationals have just one regular in their lineup that's batting over .250. This team has really been decimated by injuries this year and they simply have nothing to play for. Philadelphia has more talent, better pitching and hitting, and they are in the thick of the playoff hunt. They win games like this. Even if Tim Redding has a stellar outing tonight - and I fully expect him to hold the Phils to around three or four runs - and Washington get ahead, they have no closer! They have no back end of the bullpen to withstand the inevitable late Phillies rally. Washington is 4-10 in its last 14 games against a left-handed starter and 7-17 in their last 24 against a southpaw. I've watched this lineup and they just don't have the patience to work against a soft-tosser like Jamie Moyer. We have an ump with a wide zone behind the dish and that is going to help Moyer work his magic. This is a great price on a team that's A) underachieving, B) gone through a brutal portion of their schedule, C) dominated this series. I like the matchup and I like a 5-2 Phillies win for us tonight.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #901 Colorado (-150) over Pittsburgh
Hmm. Things looked like they were running smoothly for the Rox. Then Pittsburgh got ahold of them to exact some revenge for a series sweep in Coors. Well, I think Colorado manages to salvage one 'W' from this set. They are No. 2 in the league against left-handed pitchers and the last time they matched up Aaron Cook with Zach Duke they won 11-3. I don't expect that much of a blowout, but I do expect Colorado to no blow a multiple-run lead for the third straight day.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #905 St. Louis (+110) over Atlanta
The Braves are trotting out a Class AAA lineup and really are about to start mailing in this season. Can't blame them. They just don't have the guns to hold back the Cardinals today. Jair Jurrjens has been brilliant at home - and likely will be again tonight - but the bullpen is a wreck and Atlanta just won't be able to get it done.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #910 Milwaukee (-110) over Chicago Cubs
I actually have three of my best systems suggesting a play on Milwaukee. This really should be my highest, or second-highest, play on the board. But it isn't. Why? Because I'm scared of the Cubs right now. That said, I will be pretty stunned if the Brewers are swept in their own building by a team that's been very shaky on the road. I'm expecting a higher scoring affair and I think that will benefit the team that bats last.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #913 Arizona (-135) over San Diego
This is as large of a pitching mismatch between two regular starters as you'll find. But we didn't do bigger on it because the Padres always manage to play the D-Backs tough. That said, Arizona is hitting the ball lately. When they hit above, say, .260, they are tough to beat. They had multiple chances to break last night's game open and really dominated from start to finish. I think the Baby Backs stay in their groove and earn a sweep over a floundering Padres club.
Today's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Cincinnati at Houston
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Detroit at Cleveland
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Los Angeles Angels at Boston
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Black Widow Sports
1* on Minnesota Twins +104
The Twins smell blood after drawing within a ½ game of the White Sox by beating Chicago in two straight heading into tonight’s Game 3. Livan Hernandez isn’t the best starter on this staff, but he’s been damn good at home. Hernandez is 8-1 at home with a sufficient 3.91 ERA this year. The Twins are 10-2 in his 12 home starts of 2008. After a hot start to the season, Gavin Floyd has clearly fizzled. Floyd is 0-2 with a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts. The Twins are 28-8 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in home games in July games over the last 3 seasons. With Hernandez on the mound and the Twins playing at home, this is a great combination for a Minnesota victory as a nice underdog. Take the Twins on the Money Line.
3Daily Winners
LAA Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: LAA Angels
How do not make a small wager at +169 on the team with the best record in baseball, who has earned the most units of profit wagering on baseball and is 7-1 against opponent this season? The Los Angeles Angels are this team and Joe Saunders is 13-5 on the season and the Halos are 5-0 against Boston with him as starter. Make a small play on this situation.
Mooses Double Guarantee Dog of the year.
Guaranteed Pick: Jimmy The Moose
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels won again last night and are now 11-2 in their last 13 games overall. The Angeles have won 6 of their last 7 road games. In their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record the Angels are 23-8. LA is 8-1 in their last 9 vs. AL East opponents. In their last 11 games as a road dog the Angeles are 8-3. Saunders, 13-5, is on the mound tonight. The Angeles are 15-5 when he's started this season. LA is 14-6 in his last 20 road starts. The Angels are 21-8 in Saunders' last 29 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Boston is 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a winning % above .600. Boston is 1-4 in Beckett's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Boston has lost 4 of Beckett's last 6 starts. The Angels are 5-0 in Saunders last 5 starts vs. the Red Sox. Boston has lost 7 straight va. LA. Play on the Los Angeles Angeles
Teddy Covers
3* Oakland A's
Damon Roberts
"Stake My Reputation" Game of the Year
Detroit Tigers +140 over Cleveland
Three 1000* Top Plays
Atlanta Braves w/Jurrjens over St Louis
New York w/Pelfrey over Florida
LA Angels w/Saunders over Boston
There is no question that Cliff Lee has been magical this year for the Tribe. He has been the only bright spot in what otherwise is a miserable year for the Indians. Still, +140 on the Tigers is too good to pass up. They have been rolling on offense, putting up the most runs in the AL after the All-Star Break. They are 7-1 in their last eight road games vs. a left-handed starter, and are 5-1 in their last six away from Comerica. Heck, they are 46-21 in their last 67 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Indians are 1-6 in Lee's last seven starts vs. Tigers, and are 0-6 in his last six home starts vs. Detroit. I think this will be a close game going the way of the visitors.
Carpenter? The man hasn't pitched in forever, and you expect me to use him tonight? Absolutely not. He'll take on the impressive Jurrjens, who is 10-5 with a 3.02 ERA on the year. He held the Phils to three hits in eight scoreless innings of an 8-2 win on Friday to improve to 4-2 with a 1.84 ERA in his last seven starts. He has never faced St. Louis, and will face Carpenter tonight. The righty has a 5.96 ERA lifetime against the Braves, and will drop his first start tonight.
The Mets are 10-1 in Pelfrey's last 11 starts and are 5-0 in his last five away from Shea. He takes on the Marlins tonight and Josh Johnson, who has no wins in his first three starts off of Tommy John surgery. The Mets are 16-5 in their last 21 overall and are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Florida. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 1-4 in Johnson's last five home starts and will lose this one to New York tonight.
Saunders has had major success against the Red Sox as he takes them on at Fenway tonight. He is personally 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA in five lifetime starts against Boston. The Angels have not lost to the Red Sox all year long, and almost no-hit them last night with Lackey on the hill. The Angels are 4-0 in Saunders' last four starts as an underdog and are 36-15 in Saunders' last 51 starts. They'll beat Beckett tonight.
KBHoops
5 units KC Royals +121 **POD**
5 units NY Yankees -1.5 -135
5 units Sea/Texas Over 11
5 units Washington +1.5 -130
Greg Shaker "PLATINUM PICK"
NYM (-113) vs FLA
New York has won Pelfreys last nine starts, with the right-hander posting a 2.67 ERA in that span. He allowed one run and seven hits in seven innings of a 7-2 win over St. Louis on Friday, the fourth time in five starts he gave up one run or less. He is performing very well and has become perhaps the Ace of the Staff. He has walked one batter in 29 innings over his last four starts and that is as good as it gets. Josh Johnson is still looking for his first win. He has been pretty good but is still recovering from Tommy John Surgury and is not able to go deep into games. His command of the strikezone has been iffy with 6 free passes in his last 2 outings. The Mets have won 16 of their last 21, they have beaten the Marlins 13 of the last 16 on this field. They are playing as good as anyone in the National League right now since the Poison Randolph departed. This one was easy to spot and is the right play to make so I will cut the thoughts short. This is my PLATINUM PICK for Wednesday.
King Creole
ANA (+165) vs BOS
Another dog with FANTASIC line value on Wednesday night. How many times do you get the BEST team in baseball.... in current HOT form... at such a high price (+160 or higher)? The Angels also qualify in the 'Sweeping Dog' System, which tells us to play ON a road dog in Game Three of a series.... if they have won EACH of the first two games of that series as an underdog. That System has paid off very handsomely for us thus far, so you can Count us in on Wednesday night! And we even have the advantage of a starting pitcher matchup in which he dog is in BETTER current form than his heavily-favored counterpart.
Los Angeles is a VERY happy and content team right now. They just traded for a big stick in Mark Teixeira, and he should be in the starting line for tonight's Game Three. The ANGELS are 8-2 in their last 10 games.... 6-1 in their last 7... and have gone 4-1 in their current road trip. Last 10 games offensive stats has them hitting 40 points higher than the Red Sox (.289 vs .248). In this Boston/LA series, the Angels are now a PERFECT 7-0 in the last 7 games so far in 2008 (7-1 overall).
JOE SAUNDERS gets the call for the Halos tonight. He's a significant UNDERDOG that holds all statistical advantages in terms of current form. Give him the nod over Josh Beckett in ERA (3.38 to 4.50 last 3 starts)... WHIP (1.08 to 1.50).... opponent team batting average (.286 vs .353)... YTD road ERA (2.41) vs Beckett's home ERA (4.36)... and Quality start percentage on the year (70% vs 63%). He's on a current streak in which he has allowed 3 or less earned runs in 7 STRAIGHT starts (2.68 ERA). To 'seal the deal', we note that Saunders is a PERFECT 5-0 in his 5 career starts against the Red Sox! ERA in those 5 starts is only 2.78. And he has top-notch numbers "In the Park" as well (2.63 ERA). The Red Sox continue to struggle against the better teams in the League and the better starters in the League. They are a PERFECT 0-7 in their last 7 games vs .600 or better competition. Also a PERFECT 0-7 vs starters with a YTD WHIP of 1.15 or less (like Saunders). Boston is also 1-6 after scoring less than 2 runs in their previous game... and don't forget that they are on a current 1-4 run in their last 5 overall. In addition to the current HOT streak by the Angels, we also note that they are 20-6 in their last 26 vs WINNING teams... 6-2 in Game Three of a series... 9-3 (+11.1 units) in their last 12 roles as road underdogs... 13-3 vs AL East teams... and 4-0 in their last 4 vs righties.
You're not gonna find a HOT DOG with better credentials and significant line value than the HALOS tonight..... And they are certainly worthy of 3*** BEST BET status. This is truly a 'Once-a-Month' standout play
MIL / CHC Under 8.5
This game really jumped out at me last night when when the opening lines came out. The home plate UMPIRE Over / Under numbers are especially eye-opening. Getting the call 'behind the dish' tonight will be LANCE BARKSDALE, who has very solid recent UNDER credentials. He started off the 2008 season by going OVER ion 4 of his first 5 games. But it's been All UNDERS since then. YTD record stands at 8-13-2 O/U. Last 10 games: 2-10-2 O/U with average combined total runs scored of only 6.1. What REALLY excites me about Barksdale tonight is his OU record in regards to both of (6.6 RPG)... 1-6 O/U in the last 2 years... 0-5 O/U in Cub ROAD games (5.6 RPG)... and 0-1 O/U in Ryan Dempster starts. In Milwaukee Brewer games, his numbers are even MORE one-sided. Barksdale has gone 0-9-1 O/U in ALL Brewer games since the 2001 season (avg runs only 5.7). That includes a PERFECT 0-4 O/U "In this Park" and 0-1 O/U already in the 2008 season.
Helping to support our cause will be a couple of starting pitchers in very good current form. RYAN DEMPSTER comes in with an ERA of only 2.18 in his last 3 starts. K/BB ratio is solid at 20-10 in those 3 starts. He's allowed 2 or LESS earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts dating back to the middle of June. He's also allowed ZERO home runs in his last 4 starts.... another good sign for our UNDER. Dempster is 1-9 O/U after his team scored 5+ runs in their previous game... 1-5 O/U in his last 6 starts vs WINNING teams... and 2-8 O/U off a Quality Start. On the flip side is MANNY PARRA. He's allowed 3 or less earned runs in EACH of his last 7 starts dating back to the middle of June. His ERA in that time span is only 2.20. He's another pitcher that does NOT allow a lot of "Dingers". He has NOT allowed a home run in ANY of his last 7 starts. A significantly reduced chance of home runs tonight is 'just what the (OU) Doctor ordered'!
Marco D'Angelo
MIL (-114) vs CHC
Analysis: Ok tonight the Brewers find themselves in what is almost a must win game as after dropping the first 2 of this series the Brewers can't afford to fall any further behind than they are. Tonight they send Manny Parra to the mound who has been impressive at home going 5-1 for the season. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster isn't the same pitcher on the Road as he is at home. Brew Crew get back into the Race with a Win tonight.
TAKE MILWAUKEE as MARCO'S TRIPLE DIME MASSACRE and make them a TRIPLE DIME
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
TEXAS / Seattle Over 11.5
The Over is 22-10-2 in Mariners last 34 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 5-1 in Batistas last 6 starts overall, while the Over is 10-3-1 in Padillas last 14 starts vs. American League West and 20-8 in Padillas last 28 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, plus the Over is 6-1-1 in Nauerts last 8 games behind home plate vs. Seattle. I used this same play last night and it was an easy winner and I expect if to be just as easy tonight. Miguel Batista has been trully horrible this year, posting a 6.67 ERA overall, including a 5.24 ERA in his road starts and an 11.25 ERA in his last 4 starts. Miguela also owns a 5.43 ERA in his career vs Texas, including a 7.84 ERA at Rangers Ballpark. Vicente Padilla has had a good year for Texas, record wise, but his ERA is 4.56 overall, including a 4.00 ERA in his home starts and a 4.79 ERA in his night starts. Padilla's Starts overall have averaged 12 rp, while his home starts have averaged 14 rpg, and his night starts have averaged 12.6 rpg. Seattle's offense is not spectacular, but in this ballpark they have excelled as they are averaging 7 rpg in the 5 games at Ranger Ballpark this year and they have averaged 6 rpg in their last 10 played here, dating back to last year. The Rangers offense has put up 7.7 rpg in their last 7 overall and 6.3 rpg in their home games, plus they have hit .289 and scored 6.1 rpg vs righty starters on the year.Last night I said that I could see 15+ runs being scored and the teams put up 21 runs. Tonight I'll call for the same 15+ runs and another easy winner on the Over.
Seabass
30* Oakland
20* Under Phils
20* Cleve
30* Angels
100* Insider DBacks
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BLOWOUT WINNER
Colorado w/Cook -155