Brandon Lang
10 Dime Brewers
5 Dime Yankees
5 Dime Athletics
FREE - Phillies
EZWINNERS
3 STAR: (952) CINCINNATI (+$115) over Milwaukee
(Listing Bailey and Suppan)
(Risking $100 to win $345)
2 STAR: (980) CHICAGO (-$110) over Detroit
(Listing Danks only)
(Risking $220 to win $200)
1 STAR: (955) PITTSBURGH (+$195) over Arizona
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $195)
1 STAR: (959) FLORIDA (+$138) over Philadelphia
(Listing Sanchez and Kendrick)
(Risking $100 to win $138)
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Tigers/White Sox UNDER 9.5
I like these two starting pitcher's to take center stage tonight to dazzle us with a good old fashioned pitching duel. The Under is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings in Chicago in this matchup. The Under is 8-3 in Verlander's last 11 starts vs. the White Sox and 6-0 in Verlander's last 6 road starts vs. the White Sox. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Tigers last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter so I think Danks will have his way with the Tigers as well. The Under is 7-3 in Danks' last 10 home starts. Take the Under tonight.
ANTHONY CAPONE
MILWAUKEE BREWERS vs CINCINNATI REDS
Play: 3 * MILWAUKEE BREWERS -116
The Brewers send Jeff Suppan to the mound looking for their second straight win over the Reds in this early Matinee .The Reds counter with Homer Bailey who has gone from bad to worse this season.He is (0-5) on the Year with a 7.55 ERA .He has allowed 55 Hits in only 31 Innings of work , and even though the Brewers have been struggling against Righties lately I do not think that Mr. Bailey will be too tough to figure out .In Baileys last 3 starts he has surrendered 30 Hits in only 13 Innings !! His WHIP is an unheard of 2.6 and his ERA , how about 8 + .The Brewers are playing a bit better lately winning 3 of their last 5 games .Suppan has already beaten the Reds once this season and that was with Johnny Cueto on the Hill.I think Mr. Baileys days are numbered in the Bigs and this one won't help his cause as the Brewers score early and often and send Homer packing .
MINNESOTA TWINS vs SEATTLE MARINERS
Play: Minnesota Twins -125 (FREE PLAY)
The Twins send Rookie Nick Blackburn to the Hill to face the suddenly streaky Mariners and Jarrod Washburn .Blackburn's first year has been a good one so far compiling an (8-6) record and a 3.56 ERA.. He has not been tremendous away from the Homer dome but certainly good enough to shut the M's down after they Barely escaped with a victory in last nights game .His control has been good and he's only given up 7 HR'S in 6 Road starts this season .Jarrod Washburn has had a disappointing season with a (5-10) mark with an ERA approaching 5 .At Home things have been even worse as he holds a (2-5) mark and a 5.62 ERA with and on Base % of almost .400 .Seattle is (5-22) in Washburn last 27 Starts,and (3-7) in their last 10 Home Games .Today its the Twins that get the Money .
Wunderdog
Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Pick: 5 units on Tampa Bay -220
We are not usually tuned in to heavy chalk, but sometimes there is value even in lines that seem to be laden with chalk. Scott Kazmir has been brilliant on the season and for him, and the Rays this year, there is certainly no place like home. The Rays have put together a 44-17 mark at home, which suggests a better than two-to-one mark with anyone pitching. Plug in Kazmir and the Rays 8-1 home mark in his starts backed by a 1.66 ERA and you have value here. Now turn to the Tribe and Jeremy Sowers and their 1-6 mark in his seven road starts, and two-to-one odds on this game just doesn’t cut it, so we will lay the chalk and take the value it offers here.
Game: Houston at Chicago
Pick: 3 units on Chicago -181
The Cubs have to be considered at any price under -200 at home. The Cubbies have dominated all comers to the tune of a 42-16 mark or winning over 72% of the time. The Astros Brandon Backe has had two distinctly different seasons. The ‘Stros are 6-4 when Backe starts at home, but a pitiful 3-10 when he starts on the road. Not exactly the type of pitcher that stops the Cubs at home. The Cubs slid for awhile going 12-14 over a 26-game stretch, but are back to winning again taking eight of their last 10. Cubs get the call in this one.
Game: Baltimore at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: 2 units on Baltimore +195
The O's hung in there for awhile, but a 4-14 streak put an end to any thought they'd be around come October. But as young teams go, the mental aspect of the game is fragile. This team now has a winning mentality again, winners of six of their last nine backed by a 3-0 shutout of the Angels last night. After five straight wins on the road over the Red Sox and Yankees, the Angels seem to have lost their emotional edge for a bit, dropping three out of four. Ervin Santana led the Angels to six wins in his first seven starts, while posting a 2.02 ERA in the process. Santana and the Angels have struggled since as they have been a sub-.500 team over his last 15 starts while his ERA has almost doubled in the process. Sometimes timing puts value in the moneyline, so we like the O's chances here to steal another from the Angels.
Game: Minnesota at Seattle
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -128
Ok, who would of believed that over two-thirds of the way through the season without Liriano and his injuries and Santana gone to the Mets that the Twins would have a better record than the Yankees? Furthermore, what would this line be if Mussina (3.44 ERA) and the Yankees were playing instead of the Twins with Blackburn (3.56 ERA)? You can bet much higher and that is why there is value here. The Twins have won 10 of Blackburn’s last 15 starts while the Mariners are just 7-15 over Washburn's 22 starts on the season. We see great value in this one and will ride the Twins here.
Mr A
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have been a disaster on the road, but have played well at U.S. Cellular Field. Chicago has won 15 of their last 20 home games, 36-16 this season. They have beaten the Tigers in six of their last 8 games in the Windy City.
Detroit's Justin Verlander (8-11, 4.49), has lost his last two starts. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.87 ERA in his last three starts and is 2-7 in his career against the White Sox, 1-3 with a 6.15 ERA in four starts against them this season.
Chicago's John Danks (8-4, 3.31 ERA), has won his last five decisions. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 7.88 ERA in his last three starts and 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA in four career starts versus the Tigers.
Take the White Sox at home. The Tigers have lost their last five road games and nine of Verlander's last 12 starts on the road, 0-6 in the right-hander's last 6 versus the White Sox in Chicago.
Chicago White Sox -110
WINNERS EDGE
Seattle Mariners + 115 , 2 units
Pirates/D-Backs under 9 - 120 , 2 units
Houston Astros + 165 , 1 unit
Bob Akmens
10* TAMPA BAY -1.5 RUNS
10* TAMPA BAY/ CLEVELAND UNDER 8.0
10* TORONTO/OAKLAND UNDER 8.5
Larry Ness
Oddsmaker's Error (3-0 last week / 9-4 since June 17)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the NY Yankees at 8:05 ET. Sidney Ponson has been around a long time and had to have been happy when the Rangers offered him a minor league contract in March. The Rangers, who were and are, woefully short on quality pitchers (will enter this game with an AL-worst 5.26 ERA), called Ponson up from the minors in late April. Ponson was much better than anyone expected for Texas, going 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA in nine starts (team was 5-4). However, the Rangers didn't like is attitude. When a trade could not be worked out, he was released on June 6 "for disrespecting teammates and club personnel," according to Rangers GM Jon Daniels. Now remember, Texas owned a 5.10 team ERA at the time. The Yanks, with their fair share of pitching problems as well, decided to take a chance on Ponson and signed him to a minor league deal just two days later. Ponson has made six starts with New York and has been either very good or very bad. In his second (home to Texas) and his fifth starts (at Boston) for the Yankees, he's allowed 19 hits and 14 ERs over nine innings. However, in the other four (including his last outing last Saturday vs the Angels, in which he went seven innings without allowing a run), he's allowed just four ERs over 24.2 innings (1.46 ERA). Ponson should be anxious to get another shot at the Rangers and let's note that despite his July 2 loss to Texas, he's 8-2 in his career vs the Rangers. The Rangers have pounded Yankee pitching for 17 runs in taking the first two games of this series and will likely need to do so again, if they want to win a third straight game over the New Yorkers (teams also play tomorrow). The pitching-shy Rangers will give Tommy Hunter his second major league start tonight and I can't think of any reason it will be much better than his first. Hunter lasted just five innings last Friday here in Arlington vs the Blue Jays, allowing eight hits and six ERs, although the Rangers were able to win, 9-8. Let's also note that Hunter can't expect much help from the Texas bullpen either, which owns a 5.02 ERA, the second-highest in all of MLB. The Yanks were favorites of between minus-$1.55 to minus-$1.70 the last two days but opened a mere minus-$1.25 in this game. As the saying goes, "the price is right" tonight on the Yanks. Oddsmaker's Error on the NY Yankees.
Las Vegas Insider (now 31-19 with MLB Insiders s/May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Red Sox at 8:10 ET. The "rubber' game of the series goes tonight, as the Red Sox take of the Royals in KC. The Red Sox have had their troubles away from Fenway this year (especially against right-handers), but there are plenty of reasons to go with Boston in this game. The Royals are playing a little better this year, entering this game at 53-61 (.465) overall, after going 69-93 (.426) in '07. However, if one were to take away KC's excellent 13-5 mark vs NL clubs, the Royals are 40-56 (.417) vs AL teams. In comparison, Boston is 54-42 (.563) vs AL clubs, including 16-6 (.727) vs AL Central teams. The pitching matchup tonight features Boston's veteran Tim Wakefield against KC's Luke Hochevar. Wakefield has been around since 1992 (started with Pittsburgh), while Hochevar is in his first full season after appearing in just four games (one start) in '07. Wakefield matched a single-season career-high in wins last year with 17 (also won 17 games in 1998), with the Red Sox going 19-13 in his starts. In '08, despite lowering his ERA by almost a full run from last year (3.77 TY / 4.76 LY), Wakefield enters this game just 6-8 in 22 starts (team is only 10-12). Wakefield has been terrific in his last 12 starts (going back to May 28), posting a 2.74 ERA while opponents have hit just .195, but he's only a 3-5 with Boston going 5-7. The problem has been a lack of run support. Boston has scored three runs or fewer for Wakefield in EIGHT of those last 12 starts. However, the Red Sox should not have any trouble reaching Hochevar. He enters with a 6-9 record and a 5.42 ERA in 19 starts (team is 7-12). In his six starts since July 1, he's 1-4 (team is 1-5) with a 7.36 ERA, as opponents have hit .304 against him. Las Vegas Insider on the Bos Red Sox.
Daytime Delight (won 9 of L 13 MLB weeks)
Mil Brewers
Scott Spreitzer
AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR! *87-50, 64% Run!
My Afternoon Annihilator GOM is a play on the Twins. Enough already! The Mariners have scored 19 runs in their last 11 innings, coming from behind two nights in a row to "steal" wins from the Twins. But I believe Minnesota has the right man to shut the M's down on Wednesday. Nate Blackburn has really performed well for the Twins over his last six starts. He's allowed just nine earned runs and 36 base runners in 36 1/3 innings. That's a strong 2.23 ERA & 0.99 WHIP, the last half-dozen times he's toed the rubber. He'll have two major advantages working hand-in-hand with his mid-summer surge. First of all, the Twins have absolutely rocked southpaws over the past dozen times they've faced one, and Washburn is quite "rockable". Okay, not a word...but Dizzy Dean would be proud, and it paints the picture, after all! Washburn has been popped for a 5.62 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and .320 BAA in his last nine home starts, leading to a 2-7 Mariner mark. The veteran southpaw gets in trouble early in this one, and I'll back the visitor. Minnesota is my Afternoon Annihilator GOM on Wednesday.
Tom Stryker
Power Revenge Play
NY YANKEES with Ponson (-124) over Texas
It's hard to believe that Texas and New York have almost identical records at this point in the season. The Yankees have historically been one of the best second half teams and I fully expect them to make a move sooner rather than later. Of course, off back-to-back straight up losses, this is an ideal spot for the Pinstripes.
New York will turn to former Texas hurler Sidney Ponson. Rest assured, Ponson has probably had this date circled in red on his calendar. The Rangers released the veteran right hander on June 16th and hung him out to dry. The Maria College product did face the Rangers on July 2nd and was tagged for seven earned runs and nine hits in 5.0 frames. Thankfully, Sidney's last start was a gem and it should give him plenty of confidence. Facing the red-hot LA Angels, Ponson tossed seven shutout innings and allowed only two hits. Unfortunately, the Yanks couldn't score and lost that contest 1-0.
Texas still owns the worst ERA in MLB and they'll turn to Indianapolis, Indiana product Tommy Hunter who will be making his second start of his career. On August 1st, Hunter faced Toronto and got pounded for six earned runs and eight hits in 5.0 innings of work. Rest assured, this hard-hitting New York lineup will do serious damage against this rookie.
There are solid angles that support this investment too. The Pinstripes have played well in game thee of a series cashing 43 of their last 55. Equally impressive, the Yanks have nailed 16 of their last 23 facing the AL West. Finally, Texas has dropped 13 of its last 16 at home in this series. That's enough power for this handicapper. Take New York with listed pitcher Ponson. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Crusher of the Week
PHILADELPHIA with Kendrick (-148) over Florida
Counting last night's 8-2 victory, Florida has now won three straight in this series. That fact isn't sitting too well with Philadelphia. The Phillies are clinging to a 1.5 game lead in the NL East standings and they can't afford another loss to the Marlins.
To stop the bleeding, Philly will call upon right-hander Kyle Kendrick. It certainly won't take much for Kendrick to get motivated for this contest. In his last start at Florida on July 19th, Kyle was ripped for seven earned runs and 10 hits in only 4.1 innings of work. Philadelphia dropped that battled 9-5. Since that dismal performance, Kendrick has taken the mound twice and been right on target. Facing Washington and Atlanta, No. 38 was touched for only three earned runs and 14 hits in only 12.2 frames.
Florida will counter with Anibal Sanchez. Making his first start since May 5th, 2007, Sanchez pitched well at home against Colorado. Anibal held the Rockies to only two earned runs and six hits in 5.2 innings of work. The Marlins won that battle 12-2. Unfortunately, Philadelphia has given No. 36 fits. In two starts against the Phillies, Sanchez owns a lofty 10.61 ERA!
Philadelphia's bats are explosive. In fact, after scoring two runs or less, the Phillies have responded by winning 40 of their last 59 games. Equally impressive, with Kendrick favored on the bump, Philadelphia has cashed 20 of their last 29.
The Phillies need some breathing room in the division standings and they know it. Take Philadelphia with listed pitcher Kendrick.
Ben Burns
Today's Pick: CINCINNATI REDS
Even though Suppan stinks on the road (4-5, 5.19 ERA) the betting public loves Milwaukee in this matchup. That's provided us with solid value with the home dog. Consider Cincinnati.
SportsKingz
BOSTON REDSOX -140
Jeff Alexander
Baltimore Orioles vs. LAA Angels
1 Unit on LA Angels -1.5
After getting shutout by the O's yesterday, I like the Angels to bounce back big this afternoon. We'll take them on the run line to save us the hefty juice. The Orioles are 5-11 in their last 16 vs. the American League West, 8-23 in their last 31 during game 3 of a series, and 6-20 in their last 26 Wednesday games. The Angels are 15-5 in their last 20 overall, 15-5 in their last 20 vs. American League East, and 27-11 in Santana's last 38 starts as a home favorite. The Orioles are also ust 6-15 in the last 21 meetings. We'll get behind the flame-throwing right hander Santana here.
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS vs CINCINNATI REDS
Play:BREWERS / REDS OVER 10 (POD)
DETROIT TIGERS vs CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Play:TIGERS / WHITESOX OVER 9.5