Alex Smart
2* Milwaukee Brewers
LT Profits
2* Houston Astros
2* Pittsburgh Pirates
Seabass
20* Hou/Chi Under
20* Sea
20* LAD
20* Padres/Mets Over
100* Red Sox
Insider Play 100* Phillies
3Daily Winners
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota has lost first two games of the series and this could prove to be fatal blow at the end of the season to be swept by sickly Seattle. To the Twins credit they are at least hitting the ball and are perfect 11-0 against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games this season. The Mariners have also been swinging hot bats, unfortunately are 4-19 after two or more consecutive Over's this season. Minnesota sinks Seattle's ship today.
Marco D'Angelo
OAK (+120) vs TOR
Tonight Oakland sends Gio Gonzalez to the mound in his major league debut. You know I'm a Big fan of taking a pitcher in his first start as he has a tremendous advantage over the hitters. In 123 innings of work Gonzalez struck out 128 batters. Look for him to baffle the Blue Jays tonight. TAKE OAKLAND as MARCO'S BASEBALL UPSET SHOCKER and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
92% HIGH ROLLER BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Danks -110
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Minnesota w/Blackburn -132
Maddux Sports
5 Units NY Yankees (GOM)
3 Units Colorado -210
3 Units White Sox -110
Ted Sevransky
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Over
Joel Pineiro pitches to contact, averaging less than half a strikeout per inning. For much of the season, his ability to keep the ball down, forcing ground ball outs, was paramount to his success. But Pineiro has been unable to do that in recent starts. Six of his last seven opponents had at least ten hits against him, and in his last three starts, he’s allowed five home runs after allowing only eight dingers in his first 15 starts of the 2008 campaign. Facing a Dodgers offense that is starting to click now that Manny Ramirez has given them a real spark in the middle of the batting order, look for Pineiro’s struggles to continue tonight. And with the Cardinals bullpen blowing an MLB leading 27th save last night, even if Pineiro pitches well, it’s no guarantee that the LA offense will be shut down for nine full innings.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers Derek Lowe has an extraordinarily sharp home/road dichotomy this year. In 12 starts at Dodgers Stadium, Lowe has a 2.72 ERA with opponents hitting just .211 against him. But when Lowe takes the mound away from pitcher-friendly LA, it’s a very different story: a 5.02 ERA, with opposing batters hitting .304 against him. Lowe has been roughed up in each of his last two road starts, at light hitting Arizona and San Francisco. The red hot Cardinals offense (59 runs scored in their last ten games, scoring six or more runs six times during that span) should be able to provide their fair share of offense here, sending this one Over the total. Take the Over.
Ben Burns
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are a bit on the 'expensive' side to qualify as one of my guaranteed plays. However, if you've followed my complimentary selections, you'll have seen that we often do find "value" these larger-priced favorites, as was the case with Colorado yesterday. That being said, the matchup between Lincecum and James gives the home team a significant advantage.
Lincecum has developed into one of the best pitchers in the game. For the season, he has an 11-3 record to go along with a stellar 2.71 ERA. Note that the Giants are 2-0 in Lincecum's starts against the Braves, both of which came last season. San Francisco won those games by scores of 9-3 and 4-2.
The most recent of those games (the 9-3 one) came against today's starter, Chuck James. James gave up six runs in just 3 2/3 innings in that game, falling to 0-2 his last two starts against the Giants. James hasn't had any success at all this year, either. He lost his last start, which came at Atlanta, by a score of 9-0. He lasted just 2 2/3 innings in that game, again giving up six earned runs. He's been brutal on the road, too. Indeed, he's made three road starts and has gone 0-3 with an awful 11.38 ERA. His most recent road start was one of his better ones, as he 'only' gave up five runs in four innings.
Given the pitching mismatch, I considered releasing the Giants on the run-line here. However, they haven't been winning too many games in 'blowout fashion' recently. In fact, their last six victories have all come by two runs or less, two of those coming by a single run. Even four of Lincecum's last nine victories have come by a single run. Therefore, although a lopsided victory won't surprise me, I believe that laying the extra juice is more logical than playing at -1.5 runs. Despite yesterday's loss, the Giants are still a healthy 7-2 their last nine home games played in the month of August. They should be able to improve on those stats here. Consider San Francisco.
Bryan Leonard
Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Florida Marlins
Hitting edge in this one goes to the underdog Marlins who produce 5.34 runs per game on the road vs right-handed starters. The Phillies on the other hand don't hit as well here vs righties as lefties. They average 4.43 runs per game vs right-handed starts here as opposed to the whopping 6.71 runs per game they score vs lefties at home.
Anibal Sanchez is making his second start of the season after a long stay on the DL. When he was healthy in 2006 he posted a 2.83 ERA and 10-3 record in his rookie year. He all remember his no-hitter and that dominating performance. He pitched pretty well the first time out and all indications are that he is well on his way to helping the Marlins pressure the Phillies and Mets in the playoff race.
Kyle Kendrick was pounded by these Marlins in the middle of July as he gave up seven earned runs and 11 base runners in just 4.1 innings of work. He has been a serviceable pitcher for the Phillies but in no way is he a dominating force.
Florida is on a nice 11-4 run as underdogs including last nights 8-2 victory. They have cashed five of the last seven meetings in this series and they are a nice priced underdog tonight.
PLAY FLORIDA
Stephen Nover
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
PICK: Over
The total is short here because the oddsmaker seems to perceive Pedro Martinez still is worthy of great respect and the Padres are a terrible hitting club.
But Martinez is just getting by on reputation these days and the Padres' offense often is undervalued on the road, which is the case here.
Martinez has a 6.16 ERA this season. He's been battling shoulder and groin injuries. The Padres racked him for four runs on 10 hits in five innings earlier this season at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
The Mets' bullpen is a disaster area. Their middle relief is horrendous and now they don't have a legitimate closer with Billy Wagner on the DL. Martinez is a five-to-six innings pitcher these days. He hasn't reached the seventh inning during his past six starts.
The Padres are averaging 4.8 runs on the road since the All-Star break. The 'over' is 7-4-1 in San Diego's away games during this span.
San Diego starter Cha Seung Baek isn't very good either with a 5.22 ERA. Teams are starting to hit him as he faces them a second time. Since the All-Star break, Baek's three starts have all gone 'over' by an average of three runs.
Baek doesn't pitch deep into games. He hasn't reached the seventh inning in his last seven starts. The Padres' bullpen is mediocre at best.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -130
Minnesota looks to avoid getting swept by the lowly Seattle Mariners Wednesday. The Twins have lost back-to-back heartbreakers to Seattle, blowing a 6-0 lead in Game 1 and blowing a late 1-run lead in Game 2. Minnesota will be playing determined and pissed off baseball tonight to get the win. The also have young stud Nick Blackburn taking the ball, which is clearly in their favor. Blackburn is 8-6 with a 3.56 ERA in 2008. Seattle is 4-19 after 2 or more consecutive overs this season. Mariners’ starter Jarrod Washburn is 3-15 in games played on a grass field this season. Seattle is 3-14 after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season. The Twins are a perfect 11-0 with an on base percentage of .390 or better over their last 3 games this season. Cash in with Minnesota as the favorite.
Jimmy the Moose
THE MOOSE'S AL "GAME OF THE WEEK" AFTERNOON WINNER
Twins
ROBERT FERRINGO
2.5-Unit Play. Take #971 Minnesota (-130) over Seattle
Quite frankly, I will simply be stunned if the worst team in the American League sweeps one of the best. The Twins had late leads in each of the first two games, only to blow it. Well, the magic needs to wear off and reality needs to set in. I expect it today. I also believe that the Twins will show some urgency today and find a way to grind one out.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #977 Boston (-140) over Kansas City
Note: Please reduce to a 1-Unit Play.
Well, I'm betting against the Royals today which means they will come together with 15 hits and 9 runs in the first few innings. I told you: if I bet against the Royals every day they would win the division by 20 games. Royals jinx aside, we have to play against Luke Hochevar, who is getting lit. The rookie has given up 27 runs in his last 28 innings and has lost six of his last eight outings. Tim Wakefield has not been a strong road starter this year, but he's been a great favorite. He is 10-2 as a chalk in this range and is 42-20 as a favorite over the last several years. Kansas City was on a nice little run, but yesterday's loss likely took the wind out of their sails.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #966 Colorado (-1.5, -110) over Washington
Oliver Perez is exactly the type of arm that the Rockies light up in Coors. Colorado hits lefty pitching very well (No. 5 in the league) and Washington is just 3-7 in Perez's last 10 road starts. The Rockies are 12-3 in their last 15 at home and 8-1 at home against the Nats. They should get a boost from their returning ace, Jeff Francis, who by all accounts threw well in his rehab starts. The Nats don't hit lefties very well and are 15-40 against the N.L. West.
1-Unit Play. Take #970 Los Angeles Angels (-1.5, -110) over Baltimore
Looking four a bounceback performance from the Angels. The momentum from their incredible ride through Boston and New York finally came to a screeching halt last night. That said, I think they will come out today with a chip on their shoulder after being dominated by a journeyman call-up last night. The fact is they still hammer left-handed pitching and that Garrett Olsen isn't going to show them anything that they haven't seen. The ball flies out of that park during the day and I expect plenty of runs, which makes this runline play that much more valuable. Angels are still 10-4 at home against lefties and 20-7 in their last 27 against southpaws.
Today's Totals.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Washington at Colorado
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Minnesota at Seattle
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Houston at Chicago Cubs
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 San Diego at New York Mets