Ben Burns
Game: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners Aug 6 2008 4:40PM
Prediction: Under
The bats have come to life in the first two games of this series. Those games both came at night though and they featured Seattle's worst two pitchers. The series finale features a pair of quality starters, both of which have pitched well lately and both of which should enjoy some matchup advantages here. It also goes in the afternoon, which I believe will be significant. The Twins entered yesterday's game hitting .284 in their evening games, averaging a healthy 5.4 runs per game. Including last night's result, the 'over' is now a highly profitable 48-28-2 when then they've played at night. It's been a completely different story when they've played during the afternoon though. Indeed, in their 35 day games, they've hit .261 while averaging just 3.8 runs per game. Not surprisingly, it's been the UNDER which has primarily 'gotten the cash' in those games, going a profitable 22-12-1, which is just shy of 65%. The Mariners have also struggled to score runs in the afternoon. They entered last night's game averaging 4.3 runs per game in the evening. However, like the Twins, the Mariners enter this afternoon's game averaging just 3.8 runs per game when playing during the day. The UNDER has shown a modest profit, going 19-15-1 in their day games. Washburn gets the call for the home team and he's had plenty of success against the Twins over his career. In fact, his teams (Angels and Mariners) are 10-5 in his 15 career starts against Minnesota and he allowed four earned runs or less in 14 of those games. The last time that he faced them was August of last year (08/21/07) which means that the Minnesota hitters haven't seen him in quite some time. In that game, which came at Minnesota, he allowed just two runs through six complete innings. A week earlier, on 08/15, he faced them here at Seattle. Despite suffering a loss, he also pitched very well in that start, allowing only one earned run through seven complete innings. Including that result, which slipped below the total with a final score of 8.5, the UNDER is 9-3 the last 12 times that he faced the Twins and 10-5 for his career. Washburn struggled in his last start. However, we can cut him a bit of slack, as he had expected to be traded to the Yankees or another contender and therefore may not have been as focused as he normally might have been. Additionally, he had previously allowed two runs or less in eight of his past nine starts and four earned runs or less in all nine of them. During that nine-game stretch, he had an outstanding 2.44 ERA. Even with his last game finishing above the number, the UNDER is still a lucrative 9-2 his last 11 starts. Lastly, note that Washburn has been exceptional when pitching during the day this season. In four daytime appearances (3 starts) he has an excellent 2.14 ERA, holding opposing hitters to a mere .216 batting average. Blackburn gets the call for the Twins and he's coming off back to back stellar outings. Last time out, he allowed just six hits and one run though seven complete innings, en route to a 4-1 Minnesota victory. In his previous start, which was his most recent road start, he was even better. In that game, which finished with a final score of 4-2, he allowed a mere four hits through seven complete innings, again allowing only a single run. Like Washburn, he's been outstanding when pitching during the afternoon. In fact, in his seven daytime starts, he has an exceptional 1.80 ERA! Opposing hitters are batting .237 against him in the day but better than .300 when facing him under the lights. Lastly, it's important to note that he'll have the advantage of facing the Mariners hitters for the first time. Look for the bats to go quiet this afternoon, as this pitcher's duel falls below the number. *Getaway Day Total of the Month
Matt Fargo
**76% Getaway Game of the Month (Day)**
Twins
Nick Parsons
Getaway Day Total of the Year!
Game: Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants Aug 6 2008 3:45PM
Prediction: Under
There is line value here because Chuck James shows the betting markets a 2-4 record with a 9.47 ERA. The fact is that James is much better than he’s shown this season and yet he did get roughed up in his first start after coming off the disabled list. However, this is not unusual as it often happens to pitchers in the first appearance at the MLB level after a long lay-off. James’ appearance on August 1st was his first start since May 15th and he did get roughed up and did not last long. However, like most pitchers, his second start is likely to go much smoother and note that facing the punch-less Giants should be a key to his success this afternoon! San Francisco is in an offensive funk as they have averaged a little less than 2.5 runs per game in their last dozen games! This is a two week stretch of offensive futility and it is likely to continue today! San Francisco has struggled against southpaws this season and they also have the worst home record in all of baseball so far this season! Of course the good news for Giants fans is that they will have Tim Lincecum on the mound this afternoon and that is why the play here is the under. The Giants right-hander has simply been phenomenal this season. He is 11-3 with a 2.71 ERA and opponents are hitting just .232 against Lincecum so far in his career. He will have an edge here too since the right-hander is facing a Braves lineup that has been weakened by trading away Mark Texeira and by losing Chipper Jones to injury. The Braves had a rare offensive explosion last night. Prior to Tuesday’s 11-run explosion, Atlanta had scored just three runs or less in six of their last eight games. With Lincecum on the mound, the Braves will quickly return to their offensive futility. Couple this with the Giants offensive ineptitude and you have the makings of a pitchers’ duel at AT & T Park on Wednesday afternoon! UNDER is the Getaway Day Total of the Year!
Vegas Runner Free Play
MIN/SEA UNDER 8.5
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Minnesota w/Blackburn -132
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR WEDNESDAY
MILWAUKEE-118 (Suppan)
FLORIDA +142 (Sanchez)
ADDING
BOSTON-144
KELSO
High Rollers Club
15 units - Washington
Best Bets Club
5 units Yankees
4 units White Sox
3 units Dodgers
ROOT
Chairman- A's
Millionaire- Dodgers
Billionaire- Yankees
VEGAS RUNNER
NYY (-133) vs TEX 3* BEST BET of the DAY
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: San Diego
LT Profits
2* Red Sox/Royals Under 9
Teddy Covers
3* Padres/Mets Over 8.5
Mike Rose
5* Philadelphia Phillies
2* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
2* Red Sox/Royals Over 9
2* Tigers/White Sox Under 10
3* LA Dodgers
Tom Freese 10* Side Burial
Guaranteed Pick
Game: Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Boston is 38-13 their last 51 games vs. losing teams and they are 47-21 vs. an opponent that scored 2 or less runs in their last game. The Red Sox are 23-7 the last 30 starts made by Tim Wakefield vs. losing teams and they are 10-2 in the last 12 August starts made by Wakefield. Kansas City is 61-132 vs. an opponent that allowed 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 39-87 their last 126 games vs. AL East teams. The Royals are 1-10 in the last 11 starts made by Luke Hochevar and they are 7-15 their last 22 starts vs. righty starters. 10* PLAY ON BOSTON
Players of America
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
The Play: Minnesota Twins -125.0
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Writeup: Well, that was an interesting night. We hit our big one with the White Sox and dropped the other 1*'s. All of our releases were legit and well in the game until the late innings, but not too much we can do about it now. Its now time to move on to the hump day card...
We've got one early game to list for Wednesday and we're going to get it out there right now and submit today's late selections by 6:45PM EST.
This one takes place on the west coast in Seattle and it's a perfect spot bet like we've hit on so many times in the past. Minnesota will look to rebound after a couple losses in Seattle tonight to stay in the hunt for that AL Central title. The Twins have struggled on the road as of late, but a race is a race and their not going to just lie down.
It's the battle of the Burns tonight in Seattle as Nick Blackburn toes the rubber for Minny and Jarrod Washburn for the Mariners. Nick comes in at 8-6 overall with an ERA of 3.55. He's even in his last three starts at 1-1 with a no decision. His command and breaking ball has been off the charts in those last three games too. He's accumulated an ERA of 2.86 in the last three and a WHIP of 1.21. The Twins have got to pick things up offensively...starting tonight. They've only faced the Mariners twice this season, all of which coming in the last two days. They've scored 6 and 7 runs respectively, but they need to score more to keep up with their opponent.
Jarrod Washburn is set to start for the M's at home today. Jarrod comes in a meager 5-10 on the year with an ERA closing in on 5.00. He's thrown 122 innings this season and given up 144 hits. Aside from the above stats, this one doesn't really come down to the pitching match up. Minnesota needs to keep pace. Seattle is NOT a good team, and the world knows this. They shouldn't even be in the same ballpark as the Twins, regardless of their last two W's.
This is value. The line is short here in favor of the Twins. We expect a lot of the public to hound in on this one and chase down the Twins...but we're going to take the bait and roll with them. We'll put 30 units on Minnesota in today's afternoon delight.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- The Mariners are 5-22 in Washburn's last 27 starts on grass.
Minnesota 6, Seattle 3
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Play: Philadelphia Phillies +150.0
Play Description: Run Line (-1.5)
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -125.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
The Play: New York Yankees +130.0
Play Description: Run Line (-1.5)
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)