Gator Report
MLB 70% Super Situations
MLB Wednesday:Play Against MLB (NL) road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a team batting average <=.250 against a starting pitcher whose ERA=3.70 to 4.20, with a team batting average of .240 or worse over their last 10 games, 40-6 SU since 1997 (87%)
PLAY: Pittsburgh Pirates -135
MLB Top Angles
MLB Wednesday: Cincinnati is 6-19 SU against the money line in road games versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MLB Wednesday: Campillo (Atl) is 8-0 SU against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game this season (Team's Record).
MLB Wednesday: Zito (SF) is 0-10 SU against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record).
MLB Wednesday: Minnesota is 13-3 SU against the money line when playing against a team with a win percentage of 51% to 54% this season.
MLB Wednesday: Buehrle (CWS) is 15-1 SU against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -200 since 1997 (Team's Record).
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Oakland A’s -134
The A’s will take advantage of a Tampa Bay team missing their two best players. Both Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria are on the disabled list. Their lack of offensive production showed in last night’s 2-1 Oakland victory over the Rays. Scott Kazmir pitched brilliantly, but the Rays couldn’t win because their offense simply isn’t as dangerous without their two studs in the lineup. Now the Rays get the daunting task of facing the A’s Ace in Justin Duchscherer Wednesday. Duchscherer is 7-2 with a miniscule 2.25 ERA at home in 2008. Andy Sonnanstine was touched up for 7 earned runs on 9 hits, giving up 2 home runs in his last start at Oakland back on May 21st this year. Sonnanstine is 0-2 against the A’s in 2008, giving up 10 earned runs in 13 innings pitched. Tampa Bay is 6-27 vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Oakland as the favorite.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Minnesota Twins -110
We’ll put out money down on Kevin Slowey and the Twins over Darrell Rasner and the Yankees every time in this situation. Slowey is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA over his last 3 starts and owns a very good 1.108 WHIP on the season. He’s given up just 104 hits and 16 walks in nearly 109 innings pitched, the sign of a very effective starter. Darrell Rasner is 5-8 with a 5.68 ERA this year and he’s 0-1 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.851 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Twins are 24-8 (+19.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Take Slowey and the Twins on the Money Line Wednesday.
Info Plays
3* on Orioles/Indians OVER 9
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (BALTIMORE) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts. This is a 68-29 OVER System hitting 71.1% and gaining 39.8 Units over the last 5 seasons. Play Over - Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (BALTIMORE) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts, with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games. This is a 38-10 OVER System hitting 79.2% and gaining 27.6 Units over the last 5 seasons. Jeremy Guthrie has been effective, but he’s up against a hot Indians’ lineup that has reeled off 5 straight victories. Both teams should put up plenty of runs to get this game OVER the number. Bet the OVER 9 runs.
Moneyonus
Yankees/Twins Over 9.5
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR WEDNESDAY
PITTSBURGH-155
HOUSTON-155
MILWAUKEE-200
Las Vegas Sports Advisors
NY Mets/John Maine -140
Play of the Day
LA Dodgers/Brad Penny -108
Milwaukee/CC Sabathia -194
FREE PICK
PlusLineSports
Texas Rangers vs Boston
Boston-1.5
SF vs Houston
Houston -1.5
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR WEDNESDAY
Pirates -150 and Maholm opver the Reds and Josh Fogg at PNC
CUBS +105 at Atlanta against Campillo--I say Marquis and the Chicago bats get it done at Turner
Nationals +125 over Mets and Jon Maine in DC--Bergmann blows but I say this one is about runs scoring and sloppy mistakes costing NY
Florida -125 and Nolasco over the Cards and Looper in S.FLA
Zito +125 at Houston over Randy Wolf and the Stros at Minute Maid
Colorado -145 and Jeff Francis over Arizona and Davis at Coors
Milwaukee -200 with CC Sabathia over SD and Banks at Petco--brewers just too much for lowly Padres
Angels -155 over Seattle and King Felix in Anaheim--The Angels go with Ervin Santana at home
Oakland -140 with Duchscherer in the Bay over Tampa and Andy Sonnanstine
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR WEDNESDAY
ANGELS-SEATTLE UNDER 8 RUNS
TB-OAK UNDER 7.5 RUNS
KC-CHISOX OVER 9 RUNS
TEX-BOST UNDER 10.5 RUNS
BALT-CLEVE OVER 9 RUNS
TOR-DET UNDER 9.5 RUNS
NY-MINN OVER 9.5 RUNS
PHILL-LA OVER 8 RUNS
MILW-SD OVER 7 RUNS
ARIZ-COLO OVER 9.5 RUNS
SF-HOUS OVER 9.5 RUNS
CARDS-MARLINS UNDER 9 RUNS
NY-WASH OVER 8.5 RUNS
CUBS-ATL UNDER 9.5 RUNS
CINCY-PITT OVER 9 RUNS
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR WEDNESDAY
ChiSox and Buerhle over Hochevar and the Royals in the Windy City--Buerhle has looked sharp lately
Boston -230 over Texas and Mendoza at Fenway--Lester isn't screwing up another start like his last outing
Cleveland and Reyes over Guthrie at the Jake--The Tribe are checkin in at -105
Kenny Rogers -145 at Comerica over Toronto and Purcey
Minnesota and Kevin Slowey over Darrell Rasner and the lifeless Yankees at the Homerdome
Brad Penny -110 and the Dodgers over the Phillies and Joe Blanton in Lipstick City at the Revine
Dave Cokin
ARI D'backs and COL Rockies
Take ARI D'backs
The D-Backs continue to dominate the Rockies, and I like their chances again tonight. Doug Davis is not exactly the most reliable guy in the game, but I'll still give him an edge over Jeff Francis, who's been lousy and may still not be 100% physically. The Rockies are in fade mode right now, so my choice is Arizona.
Jim Feist.
PHI Phillies and LA Dodgers
Take Under
Dodger stadium is a huge, pitcher friendly park, and it's no surprise the Dodgers are 34-25 under the total at home. Starter Brad Penny is back and looked great in his first start in 7 weeks, a 6-2 win that sailed under. He's also 8-4 lifetime against the Phillies, with a 3.33 ERA. Best of all, his 98 MPH heater is back. Philadelphia starter Joe Blanton throws a fine sinkerball, perfect for this stadium. Blanton also sports a 1.69 ERA his last three starts, so coming to the NL has been a Godsend for him. Phildelphia is 6-2-1 under the total the last 9 games. Don't look for many runs in this pennant race battle, play the Phillies/Dodgers under the total.
Bobby Maxwell
Philadelphia at L.A. DODGERS -110
Brad Penny returned from the DL and looked great in San Francisco on Friday when he held the Giants to one run on one hit in five innings of a 6-2 victory. If this guy returns to the form he's had the last few seasons, watch for a tough N.L. West race down the stretch.
That's why we're playing the Dodgers today, Penny is looking healthy and the Dodgers are tough on offense now. Penny hasn't allowed more than one run in any of his last four starts agaisnt the Phillies, including seven innings of work last season when he held them to a run on four hits of a 10-3 victory.
Joe Blanton is making his fifth start for Philadlphia since coming over from the A's. He had a rough first start but has been good his last two, giving up just one run in 14 innings of work.
The Dodgers are 42-19 when Penny takes the mound as a favorite and 12-5 when he faces N.L. West competition. This Dodger team has got some life since the arrival of Manny Ramirez. If their pitching comes around they could be dangerous. Play Los Angeles today behind Penny.
3♦ L.A. DODGERS
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Cross-river rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati square off in Game Two of this three-game series in the Steel City when Paul Maholm takes on Josh Fogg. A quick check of each hurler's home and road ERA tells us all we need to know in this matchup as Maholm's 3.14 home ERA in more than FIVE FULL RUNS better than Fogg's 8.15 road ERA this season. With Maholm in solid current form, look for Fogg to fall to 0-8 in his last eight August road team starts here tonight. Good luck - Marc Lawrence
Play on: Pittsburgh
Vegas Experts
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are struggling as is tonight's starter Kenny Rogers, but this lefty vs. lefty pitching matchup is exactly what the doctor ordered. Detroit is a strong 23-11 vs. southpaws this season, averaging a healthy 5.3 runs/game. Toronto, meanwhile, averages just 3.4 runs/game vs. lefties and is 4-17 on the road in night games vs. lefties. Starter Purcey has a 14.62 road ERA.
Play on: Detroit
Alex Smart
Boston Red Sox -1.5
Last night the Boston Red Sox took out the visiting Texas Rangers in a entertaining 19-17 slugfest for their 5th straight win in this series here in Fenway Park this season. I expect the BoSox to make it 6 in a row after tonight as they tee off on a pitcher , Luis Mendoza (3-5, 7.50) that has performed like a thrower in the annual home run derby . The right hander is 1-2, along with a bloated 7.50 ERA in 4 starts since the all star break, and has been roughed up on a consistent basis in his road starts in 2008, as is evident by a 1-3 record and an ugly looking 8.46 ERA. Left-handed batters are hitting .352 against him, while right-handed hitters are batting .294. It must also be noted ,that opposition batting orders are smashing him for .381 average with runners in scoring position. Meanwhile, the Red Sox starting hurler Jon Lester( 10-4, 3.23 ERA) continues to impress the pundits, with his performances, and despite of having his 11 game win streak stopped last timeout, he still pitched well, allowing just 6 hits in 7 innings for a tough luck 5-3 loss against the White Sox. The 2000 Gatorade State player of the year in Washington , has been very hard on lefty hitters this year allowing them a lowly .223 BA , which holds good implications for us backing him against a Rangers team with LH sluggers like Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis in the lineup. Final notes & Key Trends: The Red Sox are 14-2 L/16 when Lester starts at home , winning those games by an average of 2.8 RPG. Play on the Red Sox on the runline