Anthony Capone
Yanks /Twins
Play : 2 * Twins -110
The Twins come into this game (20-6) in their last 26 games as a favorite and they send Kevin Slowey to the Hill to get another W today .He will be opposed by Yankee starter Darell Rasner .The Yanks up until last night haad been playing lousy ball and looked comletely lost at the Plate .I'm not so sure that isn't still the case even with last nights Win .They certainly received some fortuitous calls and a Twin error didn't hurt .The Yanks were (4-6) their last 10 games going into last night something that should make Steinbrenner very proud .The Twins Kevin Slowey has been a nice surprise this season especially in his last 3 starts going (2-1) with a 2.61 ERA .Rasner has been going in the opposite direction and doesn't seem to like the road where he is (2-5) and has given up 56 Hits in 40 Innings of work .His last start vs. the Twins was a losing cause against Nick Blackburn back on June 1st . I think he gets another "L" today against a surging Twins team that is (40-22) at the Dome .
COMP
Orioles / Indians
Play : 2 * Under 9.5
I think tonight we have an easy Under in this one as both pitchers have pitched well this season ,
and I believe Jeremy Guthrie to be highly underrated .His record is decent at (9-8) on the year with his ERA reflecting the true story at 3.26 .He has allowed only 147 Hits on the year in over 160 Innings pitched .On the road his ERA drops further to 3.06 , and in his last 3 he is (3-0) with a 1.21 ERA .This will be the first time the Orioles face Reyes since he has come over from the Cards`which will also work in our favor .In his last start he completely shut down the Bluejays over 6.1 Innings allowing only 1 Run.I think mit will take the O's a few times through the rotation to get used to his delivery and that will buy us further time to stay Under here .Guthrie will get his first stab at an Indian team that has gone (7-3) to the Under in their last 10 .I think this trend will continue today as this one stays under the number .
Larry Ness
Daytime Delight: 66-40 s/Jun 30
Minnesota Twins
Weekly Wipeout Winner: 13-3 run
Detroit Tigers
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (36-21 run)
Pittsburgh Pirates
SPORTSKINGZ
MINNESOTA -115
Ron Raymond
5* MLB BEST BET WINNER
Giants /Astros Under 9.0
Wunderdog
Baltimore at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -104
This game is about who's hot and who's not. The Birds certainly aren't the hot team coming into this one. They have dropped three straight including the first two in this series. They have given up 35 runs over the three games so the bullpen is a mess and overworked, having logged 13 innings of work over the three games. Jeremy Guthrie has pitched over his head of late, but his only outing against the Tribe in his career left him with a 40.50 ERA. OUCH! Anthony Reyes came out of the pen to make his first start of the season and allowed just a single run on the road against Toronto in 6.1 innings. The Indians' bats have caught fire and with that has come a five-game winning streak. We will ride them while they are hot at home against the O's.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 unit on Baltimore Orioles -103
After back-to-back defeats to the Tribe, I like the O's to pull off a win tonight. The Indians are 1-10 in their last 11 Wednesday games, just 1-5 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series, and 12-28 in their last 40 games as an underdog. The Orioles are a perfect 5-0 in Guthrie's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, 4-1 in Guthrie's last 5 starts overall, and 8-3 in Guthrie's last 11 starts as a favorite. Take the O's to get a little revenge tonight.
EZWINNERS
3 STAR: OVER 9.5 (-$115) NY Yankees @ Minnesota
(Listing Rasner and Slowey)
(Risking $345 to win $300)
2 STAR: (906) WASHINGTON (+$130) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $260)
2 STAR: (907) ST. LOUIS (+$119) over Florida
(Listing Looper only)
(Risking $200 to win $238)
2 STAR: (909) SAN FRANCISCO (+$141) over Houston
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $282)
1 STAR: (914) SAN DIEGO (+$178) over Milwaukee
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $178)
1 STAR: (929) SEATTLE (+$137) over LA Angels
(Listing Hernandez only)
(Risking $100 to win $137)
LARRY NESS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Over
The D'backs are atop the NL West because the team has dominated its fellow division foes, going 30-15 against NL West opponents. The D'backs have completely dominated the Rockies in '08, going 9-1 against Colorado, while outscoring them 67-37. Arizona, which is hitting .252 as a team on the season (26th in MLB) and averaging 4.52 RPG, has hit .321 in the season series vs Colorado, averaging 6.70 RPG. Last night's win makes them 4-0 in Coors Field this year, having outscored the Rockies 24-7. There is little reason to think the D'backs won't continue their hitting prowess against the Rockies tonight, as Jeff Francis makes his second start since coming off the DL. Francis was a dominant pitcher in the last two-thirds of last season for Colorado, ending the season 17-9 (4.22 ERA), with the Rockies going 22-12 in his 34 starts. His plus-$1,094 mark against the moneyline, made him MLB's second-biggest "money-maker" in 2007. However, not much has gone right for Francis in 2008, as he'll enter this game 3-8 with a 5.81 ERA in 18 starts. The team is 5-13 in those starts and his moneyline mark of minus-$916 ranks him 271st of 275 pitchers (talk about dropping off a cliff!). Francis returned from a five-week stay on the DL (with left shoulder inflammation) on July 28 and lasted 5.1 innings, allowing eight hits and five ERs. Do not expect much better here, as he's posted an 11.25 ERA in losing all three of his starts against Arizona in '08, allowing 32 hits and 20 Ers in just 16 innings. As for Arizona, the D'backs turn to lefty Doug Davis. Davis flirted with a perfect game back on July 29 but in his two starts since, has lasted only six innings, while allowing 15 hits and 12 ERs (18.00 ERA). While the Rockies have been inconsistent at the plate this year, their mark in home night games vs left-handed starters is 13-3, while averaging 7.3 RPG. Take the over.
STEPHEN NOVER
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
The Mets are road favorites here against a hot pitcher with their own starter just coming off the DL and a gasoline bullpen.
I'm not buying it. Give me the home 'dog Nationals.
Washington starter Jason Bergmann continues to fly under the radar screen. He has yielded two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. He is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA in four career starts against the Mets.
John Maine is expected to come off the DL and start for the Mets. He's been sidelined since July 28 with a sprained right rotator cuff. Maine has a 4.44 lifetime ERA versus Washington in nine starts. Maine isn't a great fit pitching at this ballpark being a flyball pitcher.
Maine can expect no help from a bad bullpen that is without a closer until Billy Wagner comes of the DL.
BRYAN LEONARD
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Aug
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Phillies have really struggled offensively as of late relying too much on the long ball. While that's been a problem all season it's really showing up as of late. In the last 10 games the Phillies are hitting just .222 vs right-handers, and they could be in for a long night against Brad Penny.
Penny has been suffering through injuries all season but he pitched well coming off the DL. Keep in mind that Penny had been a 16 game winner each of the last two years in LA and he posted a terrific 3.03 ERA last season. If he is healthy he is one tough pitcher to beat, and the way the Phillies are swinging the bats compounds their problems.
Los Angeles has come to life since the addition of Manny Ramirez and they are hitting a robust .299 the last 10 games vs right-handed pitching. Joe Blanton is not an overpowering pitcher and the Dodgers should find success against him. Dodger stadium has come to life as of late and we can't stand in the way of this team on a mission. This is a cheap price for the host in an electric atmosphere.
PLAY LOS ANGELES
LT Profits
Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics Under 7.5
The Oakland Athletics upset the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 here last night, and while they may not win again tonight, we do expect another low-scoring affair.
Justin Duchscherer has quietly pitched as well as any pitcher in baseball this season in the obscurity that is Oakland, as he has a 2.51 ERA and a fantastic 0.99 WHIP in 132.2 innings. If he pitched for a team that could score any runs whatsoever, he would be a lot better than 10-7 right now. Duchscherer is also facing the Rays for the first time ever, which is to his advantage.
Meanwhile, Andy Sonnanstine is 11-6 for Tampa Bay, albeit with a mediocre 4.40 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Still, the Oakland offense can make even an average pitcher look like a Cy Young candidate, as the Athletics are hitting a pathetic .211 as a team over their last 10 games while averaging an anemic 2.20 runs in those contests.
Also, both of these bullpens are ranked in the top 10 in the majors in pen ERA, which should limit any late tack-on runs, and both clubs have been very Under-friendly in general. The Under is now 68-48-2 in all Tampa Bay games this season, and an even better 69-42-7 in all Oakland contests.
Pick: Rays, Athletics Under 7.5
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres Under 7.0
Yes, this is a low posted total between the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres, but we feel it is warranted given the combination of these stating pitchers and this spacious ball park.
C.C. Sabathia is a perfect seven for seven in Quality Starts since putting on the Brewers uniform, with a 1.58 ERA and an incredible 0.91 WHIP in 57 National League innings. He has actually already faced the Padres once this season while with the Cleveland Indians in interleague play, allowing three runs on only six hits with 10 strikeouts in eight innings. He should love pitching at San Diego for the first time, given that the Padres at batting a terrible .217 vs. southpaws at home this year.
Now Josh Banks is an average pitcher in reality, but like most pitchers, this stadium makes him seem better than he is. Banks actually has a nice 2.30 ERA when pitching at home, and he is facing a Milwaukee lineup that has hit significantly lower vs. right-handed pitching on the road (.246) than vs. left-handers (.273) this year.
The Under is also 8-1-2 in the last 11 Milwaukee games overall, and we see no reason why that will not continue given these circumstances.
Pick: Brewers, Padres Under 7
WINNERS EDGE
Houston Astros RL (- 1.5) + 115 , 2 units
TB D-Rays + 115 , 2 units
Twins/Yankees Over 9.5 , 2 units
Bob Akmens
10* CHISOX -190
AJ Apollo
3* Atlanta Braves GM 2
3* Seattle Mariners
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
BOSTON RL (-118) over Texas
Last night's game was wild as Boston started out with a 10-0 lead and then they watched Texas come back and take the lead, before Boston finally won it 19-16. To score 16 runs yeat still lose on the RL is not good. Tonight the Rangers will send Luis Mendoza to the mound and he has been horrible this year as a starter, going 3-5 with a 7.50 ERA in his overall starts, including an 0-3 mark with an 11.57 ERA in 5 road starts on the year. Get this, the Rangers are 0-5 in his road starts this year and have been outscored by a whopping 9.6 rpg in his road starts, while they have been outscored by 4.4 rpg in his starts overall. when the Rangers lose on the road they usually don't do it by 1 run, especially lately. In the last 11 Ranger road losses only 1 was by 1 run and they were outscored by 6.4 rpg in those losses. Texas really hits righties well this year, but tonight they are up against a tough lefty and they are scoring just 4.9 rpg vs them on the year and they have been outscored by 1.8 rpg on the year in those games. John Lester has been super at home this year for the Sox with a 6-1 record and 2.87 ERA, while the Sox are 10-2 in his home starts and have outscored opponents by 3.4 rpg in the process. Boston overall is outscoring teams by 1.7 rpg at home and have outscored opponents by 4.3 rpg in their last 21 wins overall. The Texas staff is just atrocious this year and I do not see them keeping this one close, as Boston will not let a big lead slip away again. This one is over early.
3 UNIT PLAY
Cleveland/ Baltimore Under 9.5
The Under is 22-8-2 in Orioles last 32 games as a road favorite and 6-1 in Guthries last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record, while the Under is 42-16-1 in Indians last 59 during game 3 of a series and 17-7 in their last 24 vs. American League East, plus the Under is 16-5 in Estabrook's last 21 games behind home plate. Jeremy Guthrie comes in on a roall, as he has a 1.21 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and he has pitched well on the road this year with 3.04 ERA, including a 2.03 ERA in his last 5 starts away from home. Jeremy has allowed no more than 1 ER in his last 3 starts overall and no more than 1 ER in his last 4 starts on the road. Anthony Reyes pitched very well in his lone start for the Tribe as he allowed just 1 ERA in 6.1 innings of work. Both offenses has been good of late and normally I wouldn't take an Under with a couple of hot offenses, but I really feel that the pitching matchup is very good tonight, plus we have a solid Under ump behind the plate and that will help keep the score way down.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Baltimore -110 over CLEVELAND
The 5-0 in Guthries last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite, while the Tribe is 12-28 in their last 40 games as an underdog and 1-5 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. I know the Orioles have traditionally struggled in Cleveland, but I feel they have the clear cut pitching advantage in this one and that will lead to a nice win here. Jeremy Guthrie comes in on a roll as you can see by his stats from above. The Cleveland offense has been hot of late, but they do struggle vs righty starters as they are hitting just .258 and scoring 4.7 rpg vs them on the year. The Baltimore offense has also been hot of late, as they have scored 6.4 rpg and hit .317 in their last 7 games. Anthony Reyes was solid in his only start for Cleveland, as he gave up just 1 ER in 6.1 innings of work. I feel he will have some trouble tonight vs this offense, while Guthrie will hold the Cleveland offense in check. Take the O's to get the road win here.
Milwaukee RL (-114) over SAN DIEGO
5 of CC's 6 wins since he has come to the Brewers have been by 2 runs or more. The Padres are 4-17 in their last 21 home games and have been outscored by 3.2 rpg in the process, and they have lost by 2 runs or more in 15 of those 17 losses. The Brewers are 14-3 in their last 17 road games and they have outscored opponents by 3.5 rpg in those 14 road wins, plus they have won by 2 runs or more in 19 of their last 22 road wins overall. The Brewers staff has allowed 1.6 rpg in their last 7 games and are facing a San Diego team that can't score at home (2.6 rpg in their last 11 at home). Milwaukee has scored 6 rpg in their last 7 games, outscoring teams by 4.4 rpg in the process. Milwaukee should win this one easily.
1 UNIT PLAY
PITTSBURGH RL (+130) over Cincinnati