DUNKEL
LA Angels at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to build on their 6-2 record against the Angels this year behind starter Matt Garza, who has tossed shutouts in two of his last four starts. Tampa Bay is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130). Here are all of today's games.
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20
Game 951-952: Houston at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.519; Milwaukee (Parra) 16.599
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-165); Under
Game 953-954: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Balester) 12.439; Philadelphia (Myers) 14.699
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-245); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-245); Under
Game 955-956: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.209; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.031
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+150); Over
Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.211; Cubs (Lilly) 17.200
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-230); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-230); N/A
Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Davis) 14.673; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 13.853
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+195); Under
Game 961-962: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Peavy) 15.199; Arizona (Haren) 16.758
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Under
Game 963-964: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 16.490; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.133
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+175); Over
Game 965-966: Florida at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Olsen) 14.640; San Francisco (Cain) 15.038
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under
Game 967-968: Oakland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 14.142; Minnesota (Liriano) 16.445
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-280); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-280); Over
Game 969-970: Seattle at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Dickey) 14.213; White Sox (Floyd) 16.498
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-210); 10
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-210); Under
Game 971-972: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 14.571; Cleveland (Jackson) 14.377
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under
Game 973-974: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.456; Baltimore (Waters) 15.303
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 11
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Over
Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.367; Toronto (Purcey) 15.470
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135); Under
Game 977-978: LA Angels at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.876; Tampa Bay (Garza) 17.344
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under
Game 979-980: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Robertson) 14.416; Texas (Millwood) 14.914
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under
SPORTS ADVISORS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (66-59) at Toronto (65-60)
Blue Jays rookie David Purcey (2-3, 5.93 ERA) makes his first career start against the storied Yankees and veteran Andy Pettitte (12-9, 4.30) when these A.L. East rivals clash in the middle game of their series at the Rogers Centre.
Toronto rallied for a 2-1 victory Tuesday, improving to 6-1 in its last seven games. The Jays are on hot streaks of 6-2 versus divisional foes and 6-2 against southpaw starters.
Since coming out of the All-Star break with eight straight wins, the Yankees have lost 14 of their last 22, going 3-9 on the road during this stretch. They’re also in slumps of 0-4 versus lefty starters, 0-6 on the road against southpaws and 0-4 with Pettitte on the hill.
The season series between these squads is now tied at 5, with the host winning seven of the 10 meetings.
Pettitte has a 7.40 ERA in his last four starts, all Yankees losses. That includes a 4-3 home defeat against Kansas City on Friday, when Pettitte got a no-decision after yeilding three runs on six hits and four walks. On the bright side, Pettitte has actually pitched better on the road this year (7-4, 3.87 ERA) than at home (5-5, 4.72).
The veteran southpaw is 16-10 with a 4.16 ERA in 34 career appearances (33 starts) against the Blue Jays, but he lost a 4-1 decision back on July 13 in Toronto, allowing all four runs on eight hits in six innings.
Purcey is coming off the best start of his brief career, holding the Tigers to two hits and three walks in six scoreless innings en route to a 4-3 victory. Purcey has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts, and he’s 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three outings at the Rogers Centre.
In this rivalry, the under is on streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-1 in Toronto and 5-0 when Pettitte faces the Blue Jays. The under is also 6-2 in New York’s last eight overall, 11-3 in Pettitte’s last 14 road starts, 16-5 in Pettitte’s last 21 versus the A.L. East, 16-4-1 in Toronto’s last 21 games overall and 14-3 in Toronto’s last 17 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE:UNDER
L.A. Angels (76-48) at Tampa Bay (77-48)
The two best teams in the American League cap a three-game series at Tropicana Field, with the Rays gunning for the sweep as they go with Matt Garza (10-7, 3.63) opposite the Angels’ Jered Weaver (10-9, 4.48).
Tampa Bay held on for a 6-4 victory Monday night, then rallied for a 4-2 victory Tuesday, boosting their major-league-best home record to 47-17, including 43-10 in the last 53. The Rays, who are now tied with the Cubs for baseball’s best record, are on a 16-4 overall run (7-1 at home), and they’re now 6-2 against the Angels this year (5-0 at home). Tampa has also won six of its last seven against the A.L. West.
L.A. is fighting a rare slump, having lost five of its last six, including the last three in a row. Despite the downturn – which includes a 1-4 mark on this current road trip – the Angels remain baseball’s top road team with a 39-25 record. They’re also on streaks of, 21-8 versus the A.L. East, 20-9 against right-handed starters, 22-8 versus winning teams, 4-1 when Weaver goes up against the A.L. East and 10-5 following a defeat.
The home team has won seven of the eight clashes between these clubs this season and 10 of the last 11 going back to 2007.
Weaver has gone five straight games without a quality start, and his ERA during this stretch is 6.57, yet Los Angeles has won three of the five contests. However, the Halos are 5-8 in his 13 road starts, with Weaver going 5-5 with a 4.89 ERA.
Garza recorded his third complete game in his last 10 stats on Friday at Texas, yielding just two hits and two walks while striking out nine in a 7-0 victory. Garza has been solid at home this year, going 6-2 with a 2.47 ERA in 11 starts.
Weaver dominated the Rays at home on June 10, allowing a run on four hits in eight innings of 6-1 win. He also pitched in Tampa two years earlier, giving up two runs on four hits in six innings, winning 6-2. Meanwhile, Garza’s lone start against the Angels came last July when he was with the Twins, and the right-hander yielded four runs (three earned) on seven hits, losing 7-2 at home.
For the Angels, the over is on runs of 7-2 against right-handed starters, 4-2 against the A.L. East, 4-0 when Weaver faces the A.L. East and 5-2 for the Rays at home. However, the under is 8-2 in Garza’s last 10 home stats and 4-1 in his last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE:TAMPA BAY
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
MINNESOTA RL (-120) over Oakland
The A's horibble run continues as they are now 6-26 in their last 32 overall and just 3-17 in their last 20 on the road. In their last 26 losses overall the A's have been outscored by 3.9 rpg, while they have been out scored by 5.4 rpg in their last 9 losses on the road. The A's have also been a dog of +180 or higher 5 times in their last 17 games and have lost all 5 by 3 runs or more, while being outscored in the 5 games by an average of 7.4 rpg. The A's have really been struggling to put runs on the board, especially on the road, as they have averaged just 2.3 rpg in their last 20 away from home. I don't expect those bats to wake up today vs a very hot pitcher. Francisco Liriano has been superp, going 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his 3 starts since returning to the Bigs. The Twins have won those three starts by an average of 4.7 rpg, while they have won his home starts by an average of 2 rpg on the year.Liriano will also be looking for some payback as in his last start vs the A's he allowed 6 ER in 0.2 innings of work. The Oakland team at that time could hit, but this time around Francisco will feel like he's pitching vs a minor league team. The Twins are 25-7 in their last 32 games at home and have won by 2 or more runs in 21 of the 25 wins, plus they have outscored their opponents by 4.7 rpg in the 25 wins. The Twins are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record, while the A's are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 3-14 in their last 17 during game 3 of a series. No doubt that Minnesota will win this one and when they win at home it's usually by more than 1 run. This one should be easy.
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego +145 at ARIZONA
This one could be quick as both teams have been known to struggle with their offense and both have dominating pitchers on the hill today. We're going to take our chances, grab the plus-money and play the Padres in this one.
Jake Peavy (9-8, 2,61 ERA) is on the mound for San Diego against Arizona's Danny Haren (13-6, 2.96). Peavy is just 1-2 in his last three starts but he's got a 2.25 ERA. He gave up just one run on four hits in seven innings of a 3-2 win over the Brewers on Thursday, and only once in his last 10 starts has he given up more than three runs in a start.
The Padres are 5-3 in his last eight starts against the D'Backs and on July 5 he went to Arizona and blanked the D'Backs on three hits for seven innings in a 4-2 victory. He's blanked the D'Backs in two of his last three outings in the desert.
Danny Haren is on the mound for Arizona and he's 2-1 in his last three starts but his ERA is 5.59 and the opposition has hit .360 against him in those three. Last time he pitched at home he allowed six runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Braves. In his last two home starts he's allowed 10 runs in 11.1 innings.
San Diego has won three of its last five in Arizona and we'll take the plus-money in this one. Play the Padres behind Peavy.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Bob Harvey
Minnesota Twins RL –120 over Oakland A’s.
The Twins were up to their usual tricks last night pounding out 13 runs and 16 hits in a rout of the A’s. Simply put, Oakland doesn’t have the pitching or the offense to keep up with Minnesota. Francisco Liriano, still recovering from arm surgery that cost him all of last season, gets the start for Minnesota. He’s been solid if not spectacular posting a 3-3 record with a 4.97 record. Liriano will face right-hander Dallas Braden who has a 3-2 record with an ERA of 4.50. Further supporting my play today: The Twins are an amazing 76-47 on the RL the season and have rewarded backers with +29.85 Units). Oakland has scored 28 runs over their last ten games somehow winning four of ten during that stretch. Compare that to Minnesota, which is 7-3 in its last ten outings scoring 58 runs during that stretch.
Tony Weston
Alright, so I break the drought as the Rockies come in easily last night. Hey, I know I haven’t been delivering lately. I’m not going to win every single night and I’m going to get into these rough patches. Just remember, they’re free for a reason.
Now, I’m going back-to-back tonight as we’re going with the Under on the Padres-Diamondbacks game in Phoenix tonight.
Consider that over these teams last eight meetings the under is on a 5-3 run and is 3-1 the last four games played in Arizona.
Also, the most important factor is the two scheduled starting pitchers, the Padres’ Jake Peavy and the Diamondbacks’ Dan Haren.
Consider that in Peavy’s 21 starts this year the under is 13-7-1 and is 7-0-1 in his last eight starts. On the road recently, the under is on a 4-0-1 run.
On the other side, for Haren, the under is 12-8 in his last 20 starts and it is 6-4 in his last 10 starts in front of the home crowd.
The teams will play another low-scoring affair and the under will come in easily. Take the under in tonight’s game.
3♦ PADRES-DIAMONDBACKS UNDER
BEN BURNS
A's / Twins Under Getaway day TOW
NY Yankees #1 divisional GOW
SF Giants Annihilator
Matt Fargo
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Over
I'm going with a rare total play here as this one has slugfest written all over it. The Tigers were able to pound the Rangers feeble pitching again last night and that offense is peaking right now even though it is too late to save the season. On the flip side, the pitching remains hideous. The Tigers have scored a total of 27 runs over their last three games while also scoring eight runs or more in four of their last five road games, averaging 7.2 rpg over that span and is with getting shutout once.
The Rangers pitching has been a problem all season long and that is certainly no change of late as they have allowed seven runs or more in 10 of its their last 11 games, giving up an average of 8.6 rpg over that stretch. The starting pitching ERA over this span is an abysmal 10.85. The offense has slowed down but showed some life two nights ago. Despite this, the Rangers are hitting .277 over their last 10 games and are still hitting a hefty .294 at home.
The Texas offense has a shot at getting it going again with Nate Robertson on the hill. He put up another below average effort last time out, allowing four runs in 5.1 innings in a loss against the Orioles. He has been horrendous on the road this season, posting a 7.59 ERA in 13 starts with nine of those going over the number. Those games have seen 12.3 rpg scored. Six of his last seven starts have surpassed the total and those games have seen an incredible 15.3 rpg scored.
Kevin Millwood was pitching very well for a while but the wheels have fallen off completely. He has gone seven straight starts without a quality outings and he has posted a 7.91 ERA over that span. The opposition has averaged 7.3 rpg over that span and more of those games would have gone over if not for the Rangers scoring three runs or fewer in four of those. That changes against Robertson tonight. Four of the five meetings this season have gone over, averaging 15.2 rpg. Play Over Detroit Tigers/Texas Rangers 1.5 Units
JB's COMPUTER PICKS
Chicago White Sox -210
Tampa Bay Rays -120
Chicago Cubs -240 * * *
BEST BET ***
VEGAS EXPERTS
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
One thing that Arizona does have is pitching, which constantly leads to low totals being posted. Whenever the oddsmakers call for these low-scoring affairs, the D'backs always seem to prevail. That's evident by the team's perfect 9-0 record this season when the total is 7 or lower. Play against Jake Peavy with confidence knowing that the Padres are 2-14 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season.
Play on: Arizona
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Padres/D-backs UNDER 7 Runs
Not surprisingly, the Under is 7-0-1 in Peavy's last 8 starts overall, 4-0-1 in Peavy's last 5 road starts, 5-1-1 in Peavy's last 7 starts vs. the National League West, and 20-7-2 in Peavy's last 29 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Under is a strong 7-3 in the Diamondbacks last 10 games following a win and 8-3 in Haren's last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. We'll take the under in this pitcher's duel tonight.
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LT Profits
Oakland Athletics +230
Francisco Liriano of the Minnesota Twins appears to be back in peak form, but Dallas Braden has also pitched well for the Oakland Athletics and the fact that Oakland has the better bullpen makes the, attractive at this monster price.
Braden may have been rushed to the majors last season, although he did show some flashes while he was up, and it probably served him best that he began this season in the minors. He has matured since his call-up, allowing three runs or less in three of his five starts, and he comes in here off of back-to-back Quality Starts.
The most impressive aspect about Braden since his recall has been his control, as he has just six walks in 44 innings, including only a total of two in those last two outings. It should also serve him well that the Twins have never faced him before, and if he is in need of relief, the Athletics ranks fifth in the majors with a 3.51 bullpen ERA.
Now we obviously have nothing negative to say about Liriano right now, as he has allowed a grand total of three earned runs in 18.2 innings in his three comeback starts. However, he does not figure to toss a Complete Game yet at this stage of his recovery, so if Braden continues his fine pitching and keeps Oakland within reach, the Oakland pen would actually shift the advantage to their favor in a tight game late.
In what could very well be a toss up in the late stages, there is enormous value taking this big price here.
Pick: Athletics +230
Tampa Bay Rays -125
The Tampa Bay Rays are now 5-0 at Tropicana Field vs. the Los Angeles Angels this year after winning the first two games of this series, and we look for the Rays to finish off the home season sweep tonight.
Rays starter Matt Garza is coming off of a Complete Game two-hit shutout of the normally hard-hitting Texas Rangers at Arlington. This marked his second Complete Game shutout in six starts, and the third time in those six starts that he has tossed at least 7.2 scoreless innings. Garza also has a nice 2.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this year.
Jered Weaver has been a disappointment for an excellent Angel team, as he is only 10-9 with a 4.48 ERA, with the Halos as a team going a modest 12-12 in his starts. Weaver has failed to record a Quality Start in his last five starts, allowing at least five earned runs in two of those outings. He also has a rather high 1.45 WHIP on the road for the entire year.
The Rays are an amazing 47-17 at home, and we see no reason why they cannot bust out the brooms here.
Pick: Rays -125
Ben Burns
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Under
Last night's opener resulted in a slugfest. With two of the National League's best pitchers on the mound, tonight's game should see significantly fewer runs. Haren allowed two runs through eight complete innings last time out. That game stayed below the total. He is 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA for the season. Peavy allowed just one run through seven complete innings in his last start, also an 'under.' He has a 2.61 ERA on the season and has seen 13 of 20 starts, excluding one push, fall below the number. Consider the UNDER
ANTHONY CAPONE
Royals / Indians
Play: Royals -110
Today I am all over the value being offered with KC and Gil Meche .They have only won twice in their last 10 tries with Meche getting one of those victories .The Royals are an outstanding (11-1) in Meche's last 12 starts .Meche has certainly kept the ball in the Park this season giving up only 3 Home Runs in his last 10 Road starts . Jackson for the Indians will be facing a lineup that has been Murder on Lefties all year long . On the season the Royals have hit over .280 vs South paws and in their last 10 (.338) .This adds up for a long night for Jackson and the Tribe.Take the Royals .