KELSO
High Rollers Club
15 units - Phillies -1.5
Best Bets Club
10 units Arizona
4 units STL -1.5
3 units Det/Tex over
BIG AL
DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH BLOWOUT
Kansas City Royals
Lenny Del Genio
20* AL Total of the Month
Detroit/Texas Over
AJ Apollo
3* Baltimore Orioles
3* Atlanta Braves
ASA
TEXAS RANGERS (Millwood) -vs- Detroit Tigers (Robertson)
PLAY: OVER 11.5 1* (Regular Play)
Residing in Texas, it is only natural for me to pay a little extra attention to Rangers games – although my passion is for the Philadelphia teams as the Rickenbach family is from Pennsylvania…however, I digress here so back to the key point: From watching each of the first two games of this series it is plain to see that these are two of the most potent lineups in baseball PLUS two of the shakiest bullpens in the majors. Yes, this total may seem ‘scary’ at 11.5 but, simply put, the odds maker can not set an accurate number on this game. The fact is that these games are just getting “nuts” in the latter innings and we feel a 13 or more would have been better suited for this game. There is no reason that either team should fall short of six runs here and that means we’d be guaranteed of no worse than a 7-6 game! Why the expectation for all the runs here? Each of the Tigers last three games have flown over the total and they’ve averaged nearly 18 runs per game! As for the Rangers, each of their last three games have flown over the total and the average runs scored is over 13 per game! What we’ve witnessed in these games is that, as usual, the hitters are seeing the ball very well at Rangers Ballpark and, as usual, the ball is carrying very well in Arlington. As long as we can again keep the rain away from Rangers Ballpark, most is expected before and after this game, then we should be in good shape for another game with plenty of fireworks tonight. Both of these bullpens have been shaky in this series. The Tigers and Rangers bullpens have combined to allow an amazing 15 runs in the first two games of this series. They haven’t been helped by poor fielding but the fact is they aren’t able to get key outs either. This allows for more late inning shenanigans tonight in Arlington but we probably won’t even need them. That’s because the two starters tonight should help insure that this one gets over the total by the middle innings! Kevin Millwood of the Rangers is simply not healthy and, therefore, he’s not effective. Nate Robertson of the Tigers is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his last four starts. He got hammered by Tampa Bay on Friday in his first start after coming off of the disabled list and he allowed four homers in that game right here at Rangers Ballpark! This is Millwood’s first start against them this season and he does have some decent career numbers against the Tigers. However, as always, it’s the more recent numbers that are most important and Millwood faced Detroit twice last season and he lost to the Tigers both times and compiled an ugly 9.31 ERA against them. The only hope for Millwood tonight is plenty of run support from his teammates and that is quite likely to occur with Robertson on the mound for Detroit. The Tigers southpaw is struggling badly again as he has just one win in his last ten starts. His most recent outing was another bad one as he allowed five runs on eight hits and five walks in just 5.1 innings of work against the Orioles. Even more concerning for Robertson is the fact that this rough outing versus Baltimore occurred at home; now he’s back on the road where he’s struggled even more this season. In fact, the Detroit left-hander, has a sky-high 16.55 ERA in his three road starts since the All Star break. The last time Robertson made a start at Rangers Ballpark he didn’t even record an out. The first six batters all reached base and all six came around to score as Robertson left the game in the first inning without recording a single out! Overall this season he has a 7.59 ERA on the road and teams have pounded him at a .340 clip. It’s highly unlikely that any of those numbers will be improved today and, with both hurlers getting pounded PLUS two weak bullpens PLUS two powerful lineups, this should be THE Slugfest Wednesday! Play OVER the total in Texas as a regular selection.
Jimmy Moore Guaranteed Selections
4* San Diego - Arizona UNDER 7
I know this is a low total but look at this pitching matchup: Haren and his 2.96 ERA against Peavy and his even better 2.61 ERA. Both of these pitchers regularly go at least 7 innings keeping the bull pens fresh and allowing to go straight from starter to closer. This being a national league game also helps getting the pitchers at the plate one of every nine times and with these starters the managers will be reluctant to pinch hit for them until very late. Play the under in the valley of the sun. Thank you and good luck.
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Tampa Bay/LA Angels Under 8.5
Tom Freese
10* Toronto
ROOT
Chairman- Orioles
Millionaire- Tigers
Billionaire- Royals
Matt Fargo
80.3 % Divisional Game of the Yea
Last night was the perfect ending to the way the season has gone for the Braves. Atlanta went into the bottom of the eighth inning with a 3-2 lead only to give up five runs and lose yet again. That type of loss carries over and it is no doubt going to affect their play tonight. Atlanta has now lost eight of its last nine games and it is 7-17 over its last 24 games. The pitching has been the story as the Braves have allowed an average of 6.3 rpg over those 24 games. Atlanta is 7-23 in its last 30 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.
While the Braves are finding ways to lose, the Mets are playing the opposite and finding ways to win. New York has now won seven of its last eight games to take a game and a half lead over the Phillies in the American League East. The Mets have been doing it with solid hitting and pitching, outscoring the opposition 45-14 in those seven wins. The 3.53 ERA at home only trails the Dodgers as best in the league. New York has the third best home record in the National League and it is 10-2 in its last 12 home games against a team with a losing record.
Mike Pelfrey takes the hill for the Mets and hopes the third time is a charm. This is his third start against the Braves this season, including the third against Jair Jurrjens, and the first two were horrendous. However those came in April and May and Pelfrey is a completely different pitcher now. Ever since dropping his sixth straight start on May 26th, he has posted a 3.19 ERA over his last 15 starts. This includes six quality starts out of seven at home where his season ERA is 2.81. The Mets are 11-2 in Pelfrey’s last 13 starts.
As mentioned, the Braves go with Jurrjens and he has had an outstanding season. He is hitting a point now however where a tired arm can come into play as he has gone past his career innings tossed from all levels. His problem is baserunners as his season WHIP is a very average 1.31 and that is not good against a potent offense such as the Mets. Eight of his 12 road starts have been quality but Atlanta is just 6-6 in those. He can throw all the quality outings he wants as it won’t matter seeing that the Braves are 1-5 in his last six starts following a quality outing in his last game. The Mets do it again. Play New York Mets 5 Units
Ben Burns
4* SF Giants
Marco D'Angelo
LOS -1.5 (+105) vs COL
The streak continued on Tuesday as Florida Won 6-0 as our NL Game of the Week. Tonight we are looking at the Dodgers to bounce back from last nights loss to Colorado and for good reason. Colorado sends Jeff Francis to the mound to the mound tonight. The Dodgers love facing Lefties as they scoring over 5 runs per game vs lefties. Also note that Francis is just 3-8 this year with an ERA of nearly 6 runs per game. The Dodgers are an amazing 17-5 following a loss of 4 runs or more the last 2 seasons. This looks to be a Massacre. TAKE LA DODGERS (-1.5 RUNS) as MARCO'S WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASEBALL MASSACRE and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
INDIAN COWBOY
Angels +106 (POD)
Weaver is interesting in that his stat sheet looks like the following: First column is the decision he got, second column is how the team did.
Home against Toronto: W/W
Road against Texas: ND/L
Home against Cleveland: ND/W
Road against Boston: W/W
Road against the Yankees: L/L
Home against the Yankees: W/W
Road against Cleveland: ND/L
You notice a trend? He does not have a game in which the team loses back to back games overall, having said that, he comes off a loss here today, he did beat TB earlier this season 6-1 at home holding them to just 1 run over 8 innings, TB defeated the Angels yet again yesterday so the Angels look to bounce-back here and avoid a bit of a sweep here today, Garza comes off a 0era performance, of course the previous times he has done that he has struggled, as his eras break down as the following:
12.60 era against Cleveland on the road.
0 rea against Toronto at home.
7.20 era on the road against Kansas City.
0 era against Toronto on the road.
7.20 era at home against Cleveland.
7.95 era against Seattle on the road.
0 era against Texas on the road.
Having said that and the fact the Angels are going to avoid getting beat again for the 3rd time in a row, lean on the Angels as they sit at +108 today with the dog price.
Yankees Run-Line -110
Toronto won 2-1 yesterday and the Yanks look to bounce-back today, Burnett once again gets it done against the Yankees at home as he is now 5-0 against the Yanks the last 2 years, Pettitte is 0-2 over his last 4 starts and the Yankees have lost his last 4 starts, he is a 20 game winner once again this year and he has been better on the road at 12-6 with a 3.73 era, he lost to Toronto on the road this year as well 1-4, Purcey comes off a 2 hit shutout on the road against Detroit, but the young man has failed to put back to back quality starts together in a while, but he is excited to be facing the Yankees of course, of course, the juice is ridiculous here, but a lean on the Yanks RL to avoid losing 3 in a row here to the Bjays.
Mike Rose
5* Cincinnati Reds
3* Reds/Cubs Over 8.5
3* St Louis Cardinals -1.5
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE DIAMOND RUN LINE DOMINATOR
Chicago Cubs w/Lilly -1.5 -125