Dwayne Bryant
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Play On: Tampa Bay Rays -195
Tampa Bay has the best home record in the AL (47-19) due mostly to strong pitching at Tropicana Field. Matt Garza has played a big role in that success, going 6-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 12 home starts this season. The AL East leaders haven't lost three in a row at home since April 14-18.
Garza has been outstanding against the Blue Jays this season, going 2-1 with a 0.39 ERA in three starts. He hasn't allowed a run in either of his last two outings versus Toronto, limiting the Blue Jays to seven hits in 16.2 innings while walking one and striking out 11.
Rookie David Purcey owns a bloated 8.36 ERA in his three road starts this season. The Blue Jays are 1-5 in Purcey's six starts under the lights this season, in which Purcey owns a 6.99 ERA.
Take Tampa Bay
Tom Freese
ST LOUIS CARDINALS
St. Louis is 8-0 in the 8 starts made by Adam Wainwright vs. winning teams and he is 8-0 when pitching Game 2 of a series. The Cardinals are 20-9 vs. an opponent that scored 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 5-1 their last 6 games when playing off a loss. Milwaukee starter Manny Parra is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many base runners as innings pitched and still came away with a win. The Brewers are 0-7 their last 7 games vs. a pitcher who has a WHIP Of less than 1.15 and they are 1-4 in the last 5 starts made by Parra vs. NL Central teams.
Matt Foust
CLEVELAND INDIANS +154
The Cleveland Indians are not in the playoff race (unless they keep playing like this) but they are going for their tenth win in a row today in Detroit. Cleveland has won nine of their last 10 games and looked dominant in doing so. Both the Tigers and Indians have been major disappointments this season but it appears that Cleveland is set on salvaging their miserable beginning. The Indians will send Fausto Carmona to the hill tonight, and his season — like Cleveland’s — has been a mixed bag. At times Carmona has resembled the overpowering pitcher he was in 2007 and on other occasions he has been absolutely awful. In his defense, he was battling injuries early and, more recently, is still working his way back to form since coming off the DL in July. It appears Carmona is getting his stuff together though, and that could be bad for Detroit who he has usually pitched well against. Fausto has allowed just two earned runs in his last two outings (Rangers and Angels). Also, the Indians are 4-1 in Carmona’s last five starts against the Tigers. He allowed eleven earned runs in 34.2 innings and struck out 25 while walking just four in those games. Detroit counters with Justin Verlander who has had an up and down season too. His last two starts have been excellent but it is hard to say what he will do today. He is 3-3 at home against the Indians and has allowed almost three earned runs per game. In his last 10 outings against Cleveland, at any location, the Tigers are just 2-8 and he has allowed 4.9 earned runs per game. Take the value here with a hot Indians team. Cleveland is averaging 6.7 runs per game over their last 10 and 6.6 runs per game over their last five road games.
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
TOP RATED LATE STEAM BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER
Cleveland and Detroit OVER 8.5
LT Profits
BOSTON RED SOX +105
The Boston Red Sox hurt the New York Yankees playoff chances even more by winning the first game of this crucial series last night, and we look for the Sox to put the Yankees in an even deeper hole tonight. Sidney Ponson pitched over his head in his first month since returning to the Yankees, but we fear the real Sir Sidney emerged in his last start vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, where he was torched for seven earned runs on eight hits in only two innings by a Jays offense that had struggled most of the season. Even more important here is that Ponson has failed to record a Quality Start in his last four outings vs. he Red Sox, including an awful appearance this year where he surrendered seven earned runs and 10 hits in four frames. Paul Byrd has been at least serviceable in two starts for Boston, allowing four runs on each occasion, and he did allow three runs or less in each of his last five starts for the Cleveland Indians prior to that. It is also worth noting that the Boston bullpen has now cracked the top 10 in the majors with a 3.84 ERA, which gives Byrd some nice support here. The primary reason that most experts predict that the Yankees incredible playoff run will come to an end this season is their lack of quality starting pitching, and we feel that Ponson personifies that here.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS +220
While we are not at all surprised by this enormous price on the Oakland Athletics vs. the Los Angeles Angels, Joe Saunders has seemed much more hittable lately while Gio Gonzalez should have success his first time through the Angel lineup, giving Oakland some value here. In fact, the Angels have lost the last two games that Saunders has started, but it is his last start that may be some cause for concern. He was roughed up for six earned runs on nine hits while lasting just 5.1 innings vs. the Minnesota Twins with no strikeouts. Granted, the Athletics have struggled offensively, but they did manage to score four runs on six hits in 6.1 innings off of Saunders when he last faced them last month. Now Gonzalez has a 6.52 ERA in four starts, but that figure is greatly skewed by one awful outing vs. the Chicago White Sox. He actually pitched reasonably well in his other three starts, and he is coming off of an outing in Seattle where he allowed two earned runs in five inning with seven strikeouts. The fact that he has yet to go more than six innings in the majors is not a bad thing here, considering that the Oakland bullpen ranks fifth in the major leagues with a 3.52 ERA. Remember that the Angels have never faced Gonzalez before, so if he has success his first time through the lineup as we expect, the Athletics bullpen could then bail him out at the first sign of trouble and key a big upset.
Dave Malinsky
SAN DIEGO PADRES +1½ RL
The Arizona Diamondbacks are 9th in the N.L. in runs scored, have managed only two runs in losing each of the first two games of this series, and if we attach a -1.5 to their ledger they are 25-42 on the road and 52-80 overall. Yet the oddsmakers are saying that this afternoon they have better than a 50-50 chance to win by multiple runs at the most difficult site in the game to score runs. Welcome to pennant race pricing. The ability to take San Diego as a “Plus Plus” has us in the mood for a matinee. Sure, Randy Johnson is on a nice run. But the pitcher alone can not sustain all of this price – the Diamondbacks are 8-16 as -1.5 in his starts, including a current 1-4 slide while he has been at the top of his game. And yes, Cha Seung Baek has that most unusual distribution, working to a 3.55 tune as a starter on the road in a Padre uniform, as opposed to a 5.65 when he throws the first pitch of a game here in Petco. But while the market downgrades him for that, we actually see it as a Play On variable. That home/away gap is going to go away, and note that in his last Petco outing he matched Cole Hamels nearly pitch for pitch in a tough 2-1 loss to the Phillies, when he had more strikeouts than hits allowed (he has done that in each of his last two starts), and only gave up one earned run. And because of last night’s big working margin, all key bullpen arms are rested and ready behind him. When a team is having the kind of disappointing season that the Padres are, a series like this can create a real spark – it gives them a chance to play spoiler, a motivation that the modern athlete seems to relish. They have controlled this series to a 13-4 tune so far, and while another outright win would not be a surprise, the best value for our money is to challenge the Arizona offense to get any kind of easy win.
Michael Cannon
CLEVELAND INDIANS +155
Don’t look now, but Cleveland has been playing some pretty good baseball lately. It may be too little too late, but it’s not too late to take advantage of some great value with them right now. Fausto Carmona will get the start for the Indians and he’s coming off a win in which he pitched six scoreless innings. The right-hander is 5-2 lifetime with a 3.02 ERA in seven games against the Tigers, including a 2-0 mark with a 2.08 ERA in two games this year. The Tigers will counter with Justin Verlander, who is just 10-13 with a 4.42 ERA on the year. The right-hander has struggled against the Tribe in his career, going 4-8 with a 6.51 ERA in 13 games. That includes a 1-3 record with a 5.84 ERA in four games this season. Take the Indians as they grab the road win.
4♦ CLEVELAND INDIANS
Sports Gambling Hotline
RED SOX / YANKEES OVER
Runs, runs, and more runs, that is what we are calling for tonight in the Bronx. Last night the teams combined for 10 runs and the OVER, and their easily could have been more runs scored if Alex Rodriguez weren't such a dog. Look for the bats to dominate again tonight, as both Paul Byrd, and Sidney Ponson are stop-gap material these days. Byrd has give up 8 runs in his last 13 innings in a Boston uniform, while Ponson has allowed 13 runs in his last 16 innings of work. Boston is on a 7-0-1 OVER run, with their last 5 games all heading HIGH, while New York is on a 4-1 OVER clip their last 5 games. 5 of the 7 series meetings at Yankee Stadium this season have played OVER the posted price, and this one will as well. Play the OVER.
5♦ OVER
Paul Leiner
25* AZ/SD Over 7.5
10* Marlins -110
Nelly
CLEVELAND INDIANS
The Tigers are just 11-16 behind Justin Verlander this season and his ERA is 7.12 over his last six starts. Verlander’s numbers are not much better in home games and he faces a Cleveland team that has won nine straight games. Cleveland is averaging 6.7 runs per game over the last ten contests while hitting .279. Fausto Carmona has made back-to-back strong starts and he has been a superior road pitcher this season. Cleveland can surpass Detroit in the standings with a win today and given how well the team is playing it is tough to ignore them as a solid underdog against a flawed Tigers team.
NSA
20* Boston +110
10* Milwaukee +145
10* Arizona/San Diego UNDER 7.5
10* Oakland/Angels UNDER 8
10* Minnesota/Seattle UNDER 9
10* Texas +100
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR WED
CUBS-169
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR WED
CUBS-169
Adding
Chic White Sox-175
Wildcat
Cleveland Indians
GAMETIME SPORTS
Tonight we will back the OVER in the Marlins/Braves
The over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two clubs, and 5-0-1 the last 6 in Atlanta. Johnson has gone over in 4 of his 5 starts vs the Braves, 4 of his last 5 overall 9-1 last 10 vs NL East opponents. Hampton has gone over 7-0-1 in his last 8 home starts and 8-1-1 his last 10 starts overall. Braves have gone 5-1-1 over in their last 7 games.