Sports Advisors
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (78-61) at Milwaukee (80-58)
The Mets try for the three-game sweep at Miller Park when they hand the ball to Oliver Perez (9-7, 3.90 ERA) in an afternoon affair, while the Brewers counter with Dave Bush (9-9, 4.12).
After rallying for a 4-2 victory on Monday, New York blew a 5-0 lead last night, but pulled out a 6-5 win in 11 innings, improving to 36-17 in its last 53 games to remain two games clear of Philadelphia in the N.L. East race. Additionally, the Mets are on runs of 5-1 on the road, 10-2 against right-handed starters, 10-3 on Wednesdays and 8-1 when Perez faces winning teams.
Despite losing the last two nights, the Brewers are still on positive streaks of 20-9 overall, 9-3 at home, 4-1 after a loss, 23-9 against lefty starters overall, 42-17 against lefties at home and 10-4 on Wednesdays. Also, Milwaukee is 5-0 in Bush’s last five starts overall, 6-1 in his last seven versus the N.L. East and 16-5 in his last 21 at home.
New York holds a slim 3-2 edge in the season series but has won 11 of its last 15 games at Miller Park.
Perez has delivered a quality start – at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or fewer allowed – in 10 of his last 12 outings, with New York going 9-3 during this run. That includes Friday’s 5-4 come-from-behind win at Florida, with Perez getting a no-decision after yielding two runs (one earned) in six innings. The southpaw is now 5-5 with a 4.01 ERA in 15 road starts.
Bush has been equally tough as late, registering five consecutive quality outings in going 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA. On Friday at Pittsburgh, Bush gave up just a single run on six hits over 6 2/3 innings en route to a 3-1 victory. It was the fifth time in his last nine starts that the right-hander has allowed just one run, and Milwaukee is 8-1 in his last nine outings (5-0 in the last five). At home, Bush is 6-3 with a 3.21 ERA.
Perez is 3-1 despite a hefty 5.09 ERA in eight career starts against Milwaukee, including a 9-7 home loss on April 13 when he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Bush has faced New York just once, and that was back in 2006 when he gave up four runs (three earned) in six innings of a 9-6 victory.
The over is 4-0-1 in Bush’s last five starts overall, 7-2 in Perez’s last nine against the N.L. East and 41-18-5 in the last 64 series meetings between these teams, including 11-2-1 in Milwaukee.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (74-64) at Tampa Bay (84-52)
The resurgent Carl Pavano (2-0, 3.27) takes the ball for the Yankees for the third time this season when he opposes the Rays and Edwin Jackson (11-8, 3.81) in the middle game of this three-game set between A.L. East rivals at Tropicana Field.
New York cruised to a 7-2 win at Tampa Bay on Tuesday, but still trails the first-place Rays by 11 games in the A.L. East and wild-card-leading Boston by 6½ games. The Yankees have won five straight on the road, scoring 42 runs in the five contests. Also, New York is 47-18 in its last 65 games on Wednesday.
Tampa Bay had a five-game winning streak snapped last night, and its lead over Boston in the A.L. East is down to four games. The Rays are still on impressive runs of 48-13 at home, 55-26 against right-handed starters, 36-18 against winning teams, 5-1 versus A.L. East rivals and 5-1 on Wednesdays.
New York has now won eight of the last 11 meetings with the Rays, including the last three in a row.
Pavano, who made just two big-league starts for the Yankees from June 2005 until late August 2008, has now matched that total in the last 10 days. He beat the Orioles 5-3 on Aug. 23, giving up three runs on seven hits in five innings, then shut down Toronto on Friday at home, surrendering a run on three hits in six innings of a 2-1 victory.
In two starts against the Rays in a Yankee uniform, the oft-injured Pavano has given up a total of 10 runs (nine earned) on 12 hits (three home runs) in 11 innings, with New York wining 9-5 at home in 2007 and losing 5-3 in Tampa in 2005.
Jackson has been money lately, posting a 1.73 ERA in his last four starts, allowing a combined five runs in 26 innings. In Thursday’s 3-2 home win over Toronto, the right-hander yielded a run on six hits in seven innings, as Tampa moved to 6-1 in Jackson’s last seven outings. He’s now 5-5 with a 4.35 ERA in 13 home starts.
Jackson has already faced the Yankees four times this season, going 1-1 with a 2.59 ERA while allowing one run or fewer in three of the four outings. Over the last two years, Jackson is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA in 11 games (seven starts) against New York.
Although Tuesday’s game barley went over the total, the under is still 10-2 in the last 12 series clashes, including 5-1 in the last six meetings at the Trop and 4-0 in Jackson’s four outings against New York this season. Also, the under is on streaks of 4-1-1 with Pavano pitching overall (2-0 this year), 5-0-1 when Pavano stats on the road, 13-5 when Jackson pitches at home and 4-1 when Jackson faces the A.L. East. However, the over is 7-2 in New York’s last nine games overall and 6-2 in Tampa’s last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Mets at MILWAUKEE
Afternoon UNDER at Miller Park today as the Mets, and the Brewers get themselves involved in a pitchers duel.
Last night's extra-inning game did slip OVER the posted total, but New York has still be UNDER in 3 of their last 4, while Milwaukee has stayed LOW in 3 of their last 5.
Oliver Perez is coming off a 6 inning, 1 run start against the Marlins, while his counterpart Dave Bush has thrown 21 innings of 6 run ball his last 3 starts.
Bush's home ERA is just over 3, while Perez sports a road ERA just over 4. We are going to play this one UNDER the posted total, as we see a definite pitcher's duel emerging.
Play on the LOW.
1♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI
We play the Over in the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati contest tonight.
List both pitchers and watch this one soar into double digits. There are plenty of numbers backing this move, as Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke is 0-5 on the road this season and has a 5.72 ERA to go with that record. Plus, nine of his 12 road starts have gone over the posted number. On the flipside, while Edinson Volquez is 8-2 in 11 home starts, nine of those games have gotten past the number. Whether or not that’s because he’s giving up the runs is irrelevant, as the totals are certainly soaring.
Duke has lost three straight and has given up a combined 12 earned runs in those games, while Volquez has yielded nine earned runs over 11 innings in his last two starts. And with Volquez aboard the rubber, the Reds are on Over runs of 8-0 at home, 10-1 overall and 7-1 when he’s facig the NL Central. Even further, these two came into this series on a 10-2 over run when they play in Cincinnati. This one should have no issue getting up there tonight.
3♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Seattle -120 at TEXAS
Afternoon winner today on the Mariners over the Rangers.
Seattle did have their 4 game winning streak snapped last night, but the do have Felix Hernandez on the mound for today's game, and Hernandez has won his last pair of starts to move to 9-8 on the year.
Dustin Nippert will counter for the slumping Texas Rangers. Even with last night's win, Texas has still dropped 4 of their last 6, and Nippert has yet to win in his two starts this season.
Nippert has lasted just 9 innings, and has allowed 10 runs to cross.
Seattle's bats have been swinging hot lately, and I don't see Nippert cooling them off today.
Take Seattle minus the small road chalk.
4♦ SEATTLE
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Washington
The Nats send Odalis Perez to the hill against Joe Blanton and the Phillies in a game that has upset written all over it. For openers, Perez has cashd in 6 of his 9 career team starts against Philadelphia, winning each of his last three home efforts while posting a microscopic 0.38 ERA at home in those games against today's visitors. On the flip side, Blanton is 2-11 on the road on Wednesday in his MLB career with a 7.32 ERA. With Perez' 2.57 ERA at home this season more than three full runs better than his 5.66 road ERA and Blanton owning a lousy 5.28 ERA on the road this year, we have no problem whatsoever staying at home with the Nationals tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels beat the Tigers again last night and will take another one tonight. LA is 28-13 in their last 41 games played on grass. The Angels are 6-2 in Garland's last 8 starts. The Angels have won 5 of his last 7 road starts. In Garland's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record the Angels are 5-1. The Tigers have now lost 7 of their last 9 games. Detroit is 2-5 in Miner's last 7 home starts. The Tigers are 15-42 in the last 57 meetings between the clubs. LA is 18-8 in their last 26 trips to Detroit. Play on the Angels -.
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR WEDNESDAY
BEST IN BOLD
DICE K and Boston -220 over Baltimore
ChiSox -130 at Cleveland--Vazquez over Sowers
LA -220 over SD
Chicago Cubs -240 over Houston
Philly -155 at Washington--Blanton wins
Cincy -205 over Pittsburgh-Volquez over Olendorf
Dave Cokin
MIN Twins and TOR Blue Jays
Take TOR Blue Jays
I don't believe the Twins will make the playoffs when all the dust clears, and a big part of the reason is the young pitching. They've gotten great mileage out of the rookies Blackburn and Perkins, but both are up there in innings and the wear is starting to show. The Twins are a little fatigued as a team as they near the end of this very long road trip, and they draw a very tough assignment here in AJ Burnett. Burnett is in good form, owns the Twins and has a shot at a 20 win season. Toronto is a good sized favorite, but they look like the right side to me tonight.
Jim Feist
NYM Mets And MIL Brewers
Take: MIL Brewers
The New York Mets still in a dogfight for the NL East with the Phillies. The Mets find themselves two games ahead of the Philadelphia with good reason to win outright. Odds are if the Mets fail to win the division they will not make the playoffs, seeing that Milwaukee currently has a better record and currently holds the Wild Card spot. Oliver Perez goes to the hill today for the Mets. Perez is 5-5 on the road with a 4.01 ERA. In addition, the Mets lost the one game that Perez started against the Brewers, a 9-7 shootout back in April. The Brewers are just three weeks away from ending their 26-year playoff drought. The Brewers have a comfortable 5 1/2 game lead over the Phillies for the Wild Card spot with a magic number of 20. Even if the Brewers finished the season with a 14-11 record, that would mean the Phillies would have to go 19-5 just to tie the Brewers. Lots of wisdom coming from the burning Bush, that is Dave Bush of the Brewers. Bush has heated up just as the Wild Card races have heated up. Bush may be just 9-9 on the year with a 4.15 era, but the right-hander has won four straight decisions, allowing just eight earned runs in his last 34 innings. The Brewers need a win here to keep pace tighten their grip on the Wild Card spot.
PlusLineSports
Baltimore vs Boston
Boston -1.5
Bobby Maxwell
Oakland at KANSAS CITY -110
Kansas City has won four straight against the A's, including Tuesday's easy winner and we're backing the Royals in this one behind Brian Bannister (7-14, 5.75 ERA) who started the season strong but has stumbled a bit lately.
The Royals have lost five straight Bannister outings but he has pitched well in his last two, including a week ago when he held the Rangers to two earned runs in 6.2 innings of a 3-2 victory. Against Oakland back on July 30 he held the A's to two runs in five innings of a 4-3 win.
Oakland had lefty Dana Eveland (8-8, 4.21) on the mound who has allowed 14 runs in his last three road outings in 14 innings of work. The A's have dropped nine of their last 10 Wednesday games, and they are just 7-22 in their last 29 on the road.
Neither team is exactly tearing it up lately but look for the Royals to bang out some runs and get this victory.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Bob Harvey
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Will the REAL LA Dodgers please stand-up? Are you the guys who lost eight straight followed by a four-game winning streak? This Dodger team has had more ups and downs this season than you can count. But just when it’s time to count ‘em out, faster than you can say “Man-Ram”, they’re right back in the race in the NL “Worst”. Tonight Joe Torre’s club looks to extend their winning streak to five games and sweep a home series against the Padres for the first time in over three years. If the Dodgers are to win the West, they’ll need Manny Ramirez to keep producing like he’s done since he donned “Dodger Blue”. Ramirez homered last night, his 30th of the season and is now 16-for-28 (.571) with four homers, eight runs batted in and 10 runs scored over the last eight games. Manny is also hitting .414 with 10 homers and 29 RBI since coming to LA. What goes unnoticed is that the presence of Ramirez in the line-up, has made everyone in the Dodger line-up better, including and especially Andre Eithier (19 homeruns) and Matt Kemp (16 HR’s, 69 rbi’s and 32 stolen bases). You can call it the “Manny being Manny” factor but it’s because of him the Dodgers will edge Arizona and win the West. Tonight the Dodger send Hiroki Kuroda to hill. Kuroda is 7-10, with a 3.87 ERA, but has fared much better at home. He’s 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA in his last nine starts at Dodger Stadium. Wade Leblanc, making his major league debut, will toe the rubber for San Diego. Leblanc was 11-9 with an ERA of 5.32 in Portland. As I said at the top, it’s been very hard to get a read on the Dodgers this season. I think though this is the right spot with the right pitcher on the hill. Look for LA to cover the RL against Los Padres.
Matt Fargo
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
The season has been long gone for Seattle but it has not thrown any towel in as it is now on a 7-2 run over the last nine games. The offense has been pretty good but it has been the pitching that has made the difference as it has allowed four runs or fewer in six of those games. Over the last 10 games, the ERA is at 3.82 with that exact number coming from both the starters and the bullpen.
Texas had a very solid run going at one point and looked like it might make a playoff push but that has since ended. The Rangers are 8-18 in their last 26 games overall and this includes a 3-10 record in their last 13 games at Rangers Ballpark. While the pitching was the problem early on in this stretch, the hitting has been the problem of late as Texas has averaged only 3.8 rpg over its last eight games. The team ERA is 5.33 on the season, which is worst in baseball and the bullpen has posted a 7.22 ERA over the last 10 games.
Seattle sends Felix Hernandez to the mound in search of his 10th victory on the year. He has been the victim of a lot of bad luck as his nine wins do not correlate with his 3.27 ERA on the year. He has been even better on the road with a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts. Two of those starts came in Texas and both were quality outings. Six of his last seven starts against the Rangers have been quality performances and he has posted a 2.56 ERA over that span. Seattle is 6-2 in his last eight road starts.
Texas counters with Dustin Nippert and it has been a struggle this season. He is coming off a decent start last time out against the Angels but his combined ERA as a starter and a reliever is 7.53 in 16 appearances. The opposition is hitting .329 against him this season and that is part of the reason for his whopping 1.94 WHIP. He has a 34:26 K:BB ratio and the Rangers have lost each of the last eight games he has been involved in. The Mariners keep it going here. Play Seattle Mariners 1.5 Units
Frank Jordan
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto hit 3 homeruns and scored some runs late to win 7-5 over Minnesota at home. For Wednesday AJ Burnett is going as things don't get any easier for Minnesota North of the border. Look for AJ Burnett to earn his 17th win of the year in a dominating home performance. Play Toronto
Tom Freese
Los Angeles at Detroit
The Angels are 37-18 their last 55 games vs. righty starters and they are 41-17 in Game 2 of a series. The Halos are 6-2 in the last 8 starts made by Jon Garland and they are 18-8 their last 26 games at Detroit. The Tigers are 18-41 their last 59 home games vs. a team with a winning road record of over .600 and they are 2-7 their last 9 home games. Detroit is 2-6 with Zach Miner vs. winning teams. PLAY ON LA ANGELS