Jeff Benton
I’ve never been a fan of Livan Hernandez, and in fact have made more than a little money betting against him just this season. So why back him and the Rockies tonight? Because the guy has always pitched well in cavernous AT&T Park going back to his days with the Giants, including a solid outing back on Aug. 27 when he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two runs on five hits with no walks in 6 1/3 innings. The veteran right-hander did take the loss in a 4-1 defeat, but the fact remains that’s Hernandez’s only quality effort in seven starts with the Rockies; also, his counterpart that night was Tim Lincecum.
Tonight, the Giants are going with lefty Jonathan Sanchez, who has a 7.11 ERA in his last three starts overall, he’s 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his last six at home and 1-7 with a 6.61 ERA in his last 10 overall, and San Francisco is 2-9 in Sanchez’s last 11 trips to the mound. And against the Rockies, Sanchez is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA in his career, including 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA in four starts this year. (By comparison, Hernandez has a 3.18 ERA in 14 career starts against his former team.)
Finally, the Rockies are the hotter team – they’ve won five of their last eight games overall; the Giants have dropped six of their last eight – and Colorado’s offense is tattooing lefties to the tune of a .328 batting average of the past 10 games. Take the plus money with the visitor.
3♦ COLORADO ROCKIES
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs.
Chicago has nothing to play for unlike the Mets but the way the New Yorkers have been choking how can you pass up probably the best team in the game with the potential of Zambrano at this price!?!?!? Sure Big Z was horrific in that last start after the no-hitter and may not be right with the lingering injuries but Oliver Perez is not exactly Cy Young and with their hands squeezing a little harder by the day around their throats the Mets are not exactly a drop dead confident squad right now.
Lou's boys boast a ton of pop from the right side led by Soriano, Lee and Ramirez along with Sotos and DeRosa and so on and can definitley take care of business here against a Southpaw that every now and then knows a thing or two about imploding.
Jerry Manual's team has possibly the worst bullpen in the game and are just laying too much in this spot, even if they are the team with the motivation. Look for the Cubbies to be as loose as can be and flex their muscles as they have done all season long.
Wunderdog
Arizona at St Louis
Pick: St Louis -121
Arizona's loss last night puts them on life support in the NL West, and their overall slide down the stretch has virtually done them in. A team that is closing out at 12-21 doesn't deserve to make the playoffs. They will face Adam Wainwright tonight who has been the Cards' stopper and best pitcher all season. The Cards are an impressive 14-5 in his 19 starts, and 13 of those finished with him allowing two runs or less! The Cards are also 9-1 in his 10 home starts, where his ERA shrinks to just 2.60. What is even more impressive is that the Cards are 7-0 at home with Wainwright on the mound against teams .500 or better. Lots of value here, so I'll back the Cards.
Mr East
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
4 units Kansas City Royals +111
The Royals win over the Tigers last night has taken them out of the basement in the AL Central, and left the Tigers in it. The Royals would like nothing more than to finish ahead of the Tigers, while the Tigers have shown no signs of intertest in any games down the stretch. They are 1-11 in their last 12, are listed as a favorite with Nate Robertson on the hill. The Tigers are 3-10 in his last 13 starts, and his ERA has swollen to 6.15 on the season. It is the type of pitcher Kansas City has owned this season, as they are just 39-62 against righthanders, but 33-24 against southpaws. The Royals have won 8 of their last 10 to get out of the basement, so they aren't about to let up now, so I'll back them as a very live dog here.
Ben Burns
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
The price on the Jays has come way down to the point where where I now believe they are now providing us with solid value. Burnett has been a Yankee-Killer over his career, going 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA in 10 career starts against them. He's been dominant against them this season, recording a 1.78 ERA in four starts. He's also been exceptional down the stretch. He didn't get a decision his last time out but still pitched well and has an outstanding 1.35 ERA his last three starts. Looking back further and we find him with him at 8-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his last 12 starts. On the other hand, Hughes is 0-3 with a 10.22 ERA on the road this season. While the Yankees may be hanging their heads a bit after getting eliminated from postseason play, they Jays are still trying to finish strong. This could very well be Burnett's last start as a Jay and he'll be highly motivated to finish strong. Consider Toronto
Dwayne Bryant
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -138
As we get to the final days of the regular season, handicapping these MLB games gets a bit trickier. Teams that were fighting for a playoff spot, only to get eliminated this week, may have trouble getting motivated to play these last few meaningless games. The Yankees are a good example.
Despite last night's win, the Yankees were eliminated from the playoff race with Boston's 5-4 victory over Cleveland, making this the first season the Yankees have failed to make the playoffs since 1993, not including the strike-shortened 1994 season. This is uncharted territory for the Yankees and I see motivation being very hard to come by over these last few games, especially tonight in their first game since being eliminated from playoff contention.
Toronto's A.J. Burnett is pitching very well, sporting a 1.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .238 OOBP in his last three starts. The Jays are 11-5 in Burnett's home starts this season. Burnett is 8-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his last 12 overall starts.
Burnett has also pitched very well against the Yankees, going 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA in 10 career starts against New York. He has been especially impressive against the Yankees over the last two seasons. In those six starts against NY, Burnett has gone eight or more innings all but once and allowed two runs or less in all six starts. Burnett is 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA in four starts against NY this season.
The Yankees counter with Phil Hughes. Hughes made his first start since April 29 last Wednesday, pitching four innings in a win over the Chicago White Sox. Hughes is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA in four starts against the Blue Jays. Hughes has been aweful this season, posting a bloated 7.96 ERA, 2.04 WHIP and .425 OOBP in his seven starts. Those numbers get even uglier in his four road starts, where he owns a massive 10.22 ERA, 2.51 WHIP and .485 OOBP.
Take Toronto
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -128
Tampa Bay is inching closer to clinching the AL East Division. The Rays simply refuse to lose down the stretch, continually proving their doubters wrong. Tampa faces Baltimore with the Orioles losers of eight straight coming into this contest. Baltimore is scoring a putrid 2.3 runs/game through their last seven games. Tampa Bay is 14-3 in seventeen meetings with the Orioles this season. Radhames Liz now owns a 21.56 ERA against the Rays after allowing 4 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings with his only start against Tampa lifetime. Baltimore is 1-9 in home games after 6 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Tampa is 14-3 vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) this season. With the Rays winning 14-of-17 meetings with Baltimore this season, I love their chances of winning again tonight. Cash in with Tampa Bay as the favorite.
Info Plays
3* on Chicago Cubs +120
Any time you can get Carlos Zambrano as an underdog you better take advantage of it. We’ll Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. This is a 102-66 ML System hitting 60.7% since 1997. Zambrano is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his career against the Mets. Oliver Perez is just 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA in his career against the Cubs. With all the pressure on the Mets’ hitters to produce tonight, Zambrano will shine on the mound. Bet the Cubs on the road.
Big Al
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Cards .
At 8:15pm our complimentary selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The recent collapse of the D-Backs in the NL West Division may not exactly rival that of Wall Street, however if something doesn't happen soon, even a Government bailout won't be able to help them. On August 21st, Arizona had a 67-60 record, good for a.528 win percentage and a two game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
After Tuesday night's loss to this Cardinal team and LA's blowout of the lowly Padres, the D-Backs now find themselves on the brink of elimination as the Dodgers magic number now stands at three. The Cardinals' righthanded starter Adam Wainwright has been very efficient in 2008, throwing only 126 innings, but still getting double-digit wins for the second straight season. Wainwright isn't going very deep in his starts lately, and that's by design as the Cards have been eliminated from the postseason and they want to keep Wainwright healthy for next season when they once again should be a force to be reckoned with in the NL Central. Wainwright already owns a victory over Arizona, an 8-2 blowout back on September 2. 24-year-old Max Scherzer is a very talented, hard-luck righthander for Arizona that has yet to get his first MLB win, despite putting up some very impressive power numbers in his brief stint in this, his rookie season.
That is somewhat appropriate, as Scherzer's season is mirroring the bad luck his team has been having since the middle of August. Also, the D-Backs are now 7-16 in their last 23 games in St. Louis.
Take the Cards.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Arizona Diamondbacks +115
Arizona is in a must-win situation with a starter who has been very consistent this season. Max Scherzer (0-3, 3.00 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona looking to notch his first career victory. The 24-year-old has a 3.38 ERA in six starts this season, while posting a 2.37 mark over nine relief appearances. In three September starts, he has recorded 28 strikeouts in 17 innings. Arizona is 73-47 (+23.3 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. After losing to the Cardinals last night, we like Arizona’s chances to bounce back Wednesday with at win they must have if they are to have any chance of overtaking the Dodgers in the N.L. West race. Take Arizona on the Money Line.
Greg Shaker
TORONTO BLUEJAYS -1.5 AT +140
The Yanks are toast this year, Jeter will probably not be in the lineup tonight. Burnett makes his last start of the season and he will do so in front of the home crowd. He is 12-3 over his last 18 starts and he has been solid after a slow start for him. The Jays have won 14 of those games as well. New York wants to end this season as quickly as possible and the Jays would love to give Burnett his 19th win. Hughes is just not that good of a thrower and the road has been an adventure this year for sure. His 4 starts have lasted just 12.1 innings and he has allowed a phenominal 22 hits and 15 runs. That is along with allowing 9 bases on balls. You might want to play this game at 1/2 Runline and 1/2 Moneyline for a push on a 1 run win. But I think laying the runs is the best way to go here.