NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
Free Winners for Wednesday, October 3, 2007
FREE MLB PICKS
LA Angels @ Boston
Time: 6:35 PM EST
Pick: OVER 8.5
Dunkel
Today's MLB Picks
Chicago Cubs at Arizona
The Cubs overcame a sluggish start to post a 63-46 record after June 2 to win their first NL Central crown since 2003. That was also the year of the infamous collapse against the Marlins in Game Six at Wrigley, so it's probably a good thing that Chicago opens away from home this postseason. Another plus is starter Carlos Zambrano's road record, which was 12-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 17 starts. He won all three of his starts away from Wrigley in September, allowing only two runs in 21 innings. Arizona is the most unlikely playoff team in quite some time. The Diamondbacks were outscored 732-712 and became the first team since the 1906 White Sox to have the best record in the league despite the worst batting average (.250). That lack of offense could catch up to Arizona in a short series and makes the Cubs a good underdog pick (+127) in Game One according to Dunkel, which has Chicago favored straight up by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+127). Here are all of today's games.
Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick
Under 7 1/2 runs between Arizona and the Cubs.
Bob Balfe
MLB Baseball
Phillies -140 over Rockies
Hamels/Francis
Cubs +110 over DBacks
Zambrano/Webb
Benjamin lee Eckstein
Ben lee ended the MLB regular season at 85-50.
Today Mr Chalk likes the Fightin Phillies -$150/Rockies.
Good luck
Michael Cannon Wednesday's Plays:
10 Dime – RED SOX
Take the Red Sox today in Game 1 of their playoff series with the Angels.
Josh Beckett will get the start for the BoSox and he had a fantastic season, going 20-7 with a 3.27 ERA. The right-hander faced the Angels twice this season, giving up a total of two earned runs in 13 innings. He is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA against Los Angeles, pitching at least six innings in each outing.
Boston finished the regular season with the fourth-best home record in baseball at 51-30.
The Angels will counter with their ace, John Lackey. The right-hander has struggled against Boston in his career, going 1-6 with a 6.27 ERA, including a 1-4 mark with a 7.46 ERA in seven starts at Fenway.
Los Angeles is just 1-10 in Lackey’s last 11 outings against the Red Sox, including two lopsided losses this year. It doesn’t help matters that Lackey has struggled against Boston’s two big sluggers, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.
Ramirez is 10-for-23 (.435) with four homers against the right-hander, while Ortiz is hitting .385 (10-for-26) with two homers against him.
The Angels just don’t seem to match up well against Boston, especially in Fenway.
Take the Red Sox as they grab the win in Game 1.
Brandon Lang
WEDNESDAY
5 DIME
Phillies -1 1/2 runs
Angels
ASHN FREE PICK (1-0 in October, 47-53 in 2007)
PHILADELPHIA over Colorado (Hamels over Francis)
BIG AL's WEDNESDAY BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER (49-29)
Al McMordie looks to rebound from an 0-3 Monday with a solid Baseball card on Wednesday, including this Totals Winner. Big Al's SLAUGHTERED THE BOOKS ALL SEASON long with his Totals, as he's 49-29 (63%) here at the Online Store, including 83% over the last month.
3* Under Boston Red Sox/Laa Angels
Bonus:
Opinion Arizona
Larry Ness' 15* Division Series Total of the Week (121-50 with MLB 15*s TY / 28-13 with totals!)
My 15* play is on LAA/Bos Over at 6:35 ET. John Lackey (19-9 with a 3.01 ERA) and Josh Beckett (20-7 with a 3.27 ERA) were clearly two of the AL's best pitchers in 2007. So whay am I taking the over? Here's why. Both are right-handers and both the Angels and Red Sox were dominant against right-handed pitching in 2007. The Angels went 75-47 while averaging 5.2 RPG, while the Red Sox were 71-42, while averaging 5.3 RPG (including 5.9 RPG at Fenway)!While Beckett shut down the Angels in two starts this year (1.38 ERA), it's more than worthy to note that his home ERA was 4.17 compared to his road ERA of 2.18. As for Lackey, he was DREADFUL in two starts vs the Red Sox in '07, allowing 20 hits and nine ERs in 9.2 innings (8.34 ERA). What's even better for the 'over' in this game is that Lackey's performance against the Red Sox is NOTHING NEW!. The Angels have a woeful record when Lackey faces Boston, losing 10 of 11 games. Lackey is 1-6 with a 6.27 ERA in those contests. Division Series Total of the Week 15* LAA/Bos Over.
Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-MLB (30-11 run since May 6 with Wipeout Winners!)
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chi Cubs at 10:05 ET. Chicago was the 1st franchise to win consecutive World Series titles in 1907 and '08, but hasn't won a championship since. The Cubs haven't been to the World Series since 1945 and in their most recent playoff trip in 2003 suffered a stunning collapse in the NL championship series, the latest chapter in the series of heartbreaks the team and its fans have dealt with in trying to end the title drought. Chicago had the worst record in the NL last year and the '07 Cubs fell nine games below .500 on June 2, leaving them 8 1/2 games behind first-place Milwaukee. However, they went 63-46 after June 2 and won the NL Central. The Diamondbacks were tied for the fifth-worst record in the league last year but finished an NL-best 90-72 this season. Arizona was outscored 732-712, and became the first team since the 1906 Chicago White Sox (.246) to have the best record in the league despite the worst batting average (.250). Arizona's Brandon Webb (18-10, 3.01 ERA) is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner and is coming off another impressive season, highlighted by a 42-inning scoreless streak. He had three complete games during the shutout run that began on July 20 and went 10-2 with a 2.43 ERA in his final 13 starts. Carlos Zambrano (18-13, 3.95 ERA) has had an up-and-down season for the Cubs, but has regained his dominance heading into the playoffs. He was 5-5 with a 5.62 ERA in his first 12 starts, then went 9-2 with a 1.43 ERA from June 6-Aug. 3, only to post a 9.42 ERA in losing his next five starts. However, in his final five starts of the season he went 4-1 with a 1.67 ERA and didn't allow a run in his last 13 innings! He won more games on the road than any pitcher in MLB TY, going 12-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 17 starts. He won all three of his September starts away from Wrigley Field, allowing two runs in 21 innings (0.86 ERA). Webb's been great but the D'backs can't hit and the Cubs went 25-16 (plus-$950) vs right-handers on the road in night games TY. Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Chi Cubs.
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): CHICAGO CUBS vs ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Play: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (LISTING WEBB)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (LISTING WEBB) ; Too many people overlooking the D'backs as they may have not had the luxury of actually watching this team play since they are on West Coast time for the TV watchers. Tough to play in Arizona and up against one of the MLB's best in Brandon Webb who we suggest you list as your starting pitcher in youer wager. Zambrano comes in hot for the cubs but has not had great success vs the D'backs. ZAMBRANO is 1-2 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 4.88 and a WHIP of 1.583. WEBB is 4-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.53 and a WHIP of 1.219. Tonight is a good night to see why the D'backs have the best record in the league.
Big Al
At 6:35pm, on Thursday, our 5* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. Everyone will focus on the high-powered offense of the Yankees and the fact that they went 6-0 against the Tribe during the 2007 regular season (hence New York being the favorite here despite the fact that Cleveland has a better record and home field advantage). But what may not be so obvious is that the Yankees did not face Cleveland's best pitcher, tonight's starter lefthander CC Sabathia. In fact, New York has not faced Sabathia since 2004, despite playing Cleveland plenty of times in that span. One of the key reasons why New York should struggle on Thursday is that it is a terrible 5-14 this season on the road vs. lefty starters (minus 15 games on the money line). New York goes with righthander Chien-Ming Wang who has some pretty impressive numbers of late. But if you look at who he's faced in his last four starts, you'll see that three of those were against Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Toronto (all great pitching lines for Wang). But the fourth start was against a postseason team in the Boston Red Sox, and Wang got hammered in that one. Also of concern to Yankee backers has to be his numbers on the road this season. Away from the Bronx, Wang sports a 4.91 ERA and 103 hits in only 88 innings. One more thing to keep an eye on is the performance of Mariano Rivera. Although generally solid down the stretch, Rivera's last call to the mound on September 28 at Baltimore (a classic save situation with a 3-run lead) was a disaster. Rivera gave up three hits and three earned runs and blew the save. Was this just a rare blip on Rivera's normally spotless resume, or a sign of things to come? The wrong team is favored here. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Big Al
5* Goy Indians
3* Under Red Sox
JIM FEIST
(963) CHI Cubs
(964) ARI D'backs
Take "Under"
(NLDS Game 1 - Wednesday) : It's the veteran and free agent lineup of the Chicago Cubs against the home-grown, young players of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Both teams throw their respective aces in this contest. Carlos Zambrano is on fire entering game one here in Phoenix. Zambrano not only is 18-13 over and 12-4 on the road, but he's won his last two games while allowing NO earned runs (both shutout wins by the Cubs). Moreover, Zambrano has won four of his last five starts and in those wins he's allowed just two earned runs in 27 innings. Brandon Webb pitched the key game that got the Diamondbacks their NL West Title when he beat the Rockies Friday. Considering that was the only loss the Rockies suffered in their last 13 games - it makes the win even more impressive. Webb had that amazing string of scoreless innings this summer and that has resulted in a nifty era of just 3.01 on the season. Like Zambrano, Webb has won his last two games and has allowed just four earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Both pitchers are hot, nerves might be a bit tight, so we'll go with the UNDER here in game one of this series on Wednesday
the wunderdog
Game: Colorado at Philadelphia (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 9 -107
The Rockies have been a red-hot team, and the Phillies also closed strong. These teams will both turn to their aces to open the five-game series in Philadelphia today. On the surface, this game looks like offense vs. offense, and an initial thought is that game 1 would be high scoring. If you dig a bit deeper into this game, and understand the makeup of the teams, that thought is not an accurate one. The Rockies are the No. 1 ranked team against RHP in all of baseball, outperforming the line by 26.51 units on the season. The Phillies are the No. 3 team in baseball against RHP, as they have rewarded their backers with 12.45 units. Things change dramatically for both of these teams against LHP. The Rockies are 67-49 against righties, but sink to a sub-.500 21-24 against southpaws. The Phillies are no different, as they have gone 62-47 against RHP, but are a mediocre 26-26 against port-siders. Both of these teams have offenses geared to destroy what they see most often and that is RHP, but the strength is turned into a weakness against LHP. Cole Hamels has made 12 home starts, and 8 of the 12 have produced nine runs or less. Francis has had 11 of his last 14 starts finish at nine runs or less, so that is 19 of 26 that don't top this total or 73.1%. These teams have not seen post-season recently, so there may be a bit of pressing early on. This game also fits nicely into a system we have developed for playoff totals that has produced 65% winners in a situation that presents itself here. We will ride the UNDER in this game one in Philly.
James Patrick Sports
New York vs. Cleveland (Series Play)
The 200 million dollar payroll of the New York Yankees faces off against the 62 million dollar payroll of the Cleveland Indians in what most Wise Guys see as a baseball mismatch. The Yankees won all 6 games against the Tribe this season while outscoring them 47-17, outhitting them .348 - .228 and Cleveland pitchers had a ERA of 8.19 in those games. However the top pair of Indians, CC Sabathia and Travis Hafner, were not part of the action as Sabathia was not starting in either 3 game series and Hafner not in the Tribe line-up for series at Jacobs Field in August. This is a different Cleveland team now and the aging Yankees starting pitching is a HUGE QUESTION MARK! Tribe has the Pitching edge in respect to depth, more speed and superior defense. Home field advantage is another Tribe Bonus. Our complimentary selection in American League Division Playoff action is on the Cleveland Indians to take out New York in opening round action in this series. Series play on Cleveland Indians.