SPORTS ADVISORS
Cincinnati (27-24) at St. Louis (30-22)
Johnny Cueto (4-3, 2.53 ERA) tries for his first victory in more than three weeks when he guides the Reds against Kyle Lohse (4-3, 3.98) and the Cardinals as these N.L. Central rivals continue a four-game series at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis bounced back from Monday’s 5-3 loss and evened this series with a 5-2 victory Tuesday to end a two-game slide and improve to 9-5 in its last 14 contests. The Redbirds are on surges of 24-10 at Busch Stadium (6-2 last eight), 6-2 against N.L. Central foes, 8-2 against teams with a winning record and 6-1 on Wednesday.
The Reds have lost four of five overall, seven of their last eight on the road (all against right-handed starters) and five of six against winning teams, but they’re 5-1 in their last six Wednesday outings.
Cincinnati still leads the season series 3-2 against the Cardinals, but the host has won nine of the last 12 clashes dating to last summer. Additionally, the Red are still just 16-37 in their last 53 games in St. Louis.
Cueto has been a workhorse for Cincinnati, pitching exactly seven innings in five consecutive starts and seven of his last eight, while going eight innings in the other outing. He’s also surrendered three earned runs or less in seven of those eight starts, but he hasn’t earned a victory since a 10-3 win at Arizona on May 13. Over his past three starts, Cueto is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA, including a tough-luck 3-2 loss at Milwaukee on Friday in which the right-hander yielded all three runs on three hits and four walks in seven innings.
Cueto is 3-1 with a 1.87 ERA in five road starts, four of which Cincinnati has won. He also beat the Cardinals 6-4 at home on May 8, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings. As a rookie last season, though, Cueto went 0-2 with a 16.20 ERA in two starts versus St. Louis, including a 7-2 loss at Busch Stadium in which he got tagged for all seven runs (six earned) in 1 2/3 innings.
Lohse has been sidelined with a forearm injury since May 23, when he tossed a complete-game, four-hit shutout against the Royals, winning 5-0 at home. That sterling performance came after a three-start slump in which Lohse went 0-3 with a 10.67 ERA. The veteran right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA at Busch Stadium this season, but St. Louis is 2-5 in his last seven starts overall (2-2 at home). Also, he’s 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA in five starts under the lights, compared with 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four daytime outings.
Lohse got rocked in Cincinnati on May 9, giving up a season-high seven runs on nine hits in six innings of an 8-3 setback. He’s now 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA in four career starts against the Reds.
The under is 19-7-1 in Cueto’s last 27 starts overall, 13-3-1 in his last 17 on the highway and 5-1 in his last six against Central Division foes. However, with Lohse pitching, the over is on streaks of 7-4 overall and 4-1 versus the N.L. Central.
St. Louis carries “under” streaks of 11-3 overall, 8-0 at home, 7-1 versus divisional rivals, 5-0-1 on Wednesday and 8-1 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the under is 16-6-1 in the Reds’ last 23 road games, 5-1 in their last six against divisional foes. Finally, the first two games in this series have stayed low, ending a seven-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
Boston (30-22) at Detroit (28-22)
Josh Beckett (5-2, 4.60) looks to continue his resurgence when he leads the Red Sox against the Tigers and Armando Galarraga (3-5, 5.50) in the middle game of a three-game series at Comerica Park.
Boston scored a 5-1 victory in Tuesday’s series opener, the team’s second consecutive win as it improved to 4-4 on a current 10-game road trip. Still, the Red Sox have been average at best lately, going 5-6 in their last 11 contests and 4-7 in their past 11 against right-handed starters. On the bright side, Terry Francona’s squad enjoys positive runs of 15-6 against winning teams, 25-11 when playing on grass and 48-20 against the A.L. Central.
The Tigers are struggling offensively, producing four runs or fewer in nine of their last 12 games. Still, Detroit is on surges of 11-6 overall, 10-4 at Comerica Park, 5-1 against teams with a winning record, 14-6 on grass and 5-2 on Wednesday.
The Red Sox are 6-2 against Detroit since the beginning of last season, taking four of the last five meetings at Comerica Park. Still, the home team 10-6 in the last 16 head-to-head clashes.
Becket has delivered five consecutive quality starts (2.38 ERA), with Boston winning four of those five contests. In Thursday’s 3-1 victory at Minnesota, Beckett went seven innings and gave up the one run (a solo homer) on three hits and four walks while striking out eight. The veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.99 ERA in five road starts, but 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three as a visitor. The Red Sox are 25-12 in Beckett’s last 37 on the highway and 7-1 in his last eight when facing A.L. Central opponents.
Galarraga ended a string of five consecutive poor starts (0-4, 9.93 ERA) with a decent effort on Thursday at Baltimore, as he gave up three runs on 10 hits over seven innings. However, it wasn’t enough to keep Galarraga from losing his fifth straight game, as Detroit fell 5-1. In five starts at Comerica this season, the right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA.
Beckett has faced Detroit just twice in his career, going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. Meanwhile, Galarraga got blasted in his only career start against the Red Sox last May, surrendering five runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings, but his offense bailed him out in a 10-9 home win.
The under is on an 11-4-2 roll in this rivalry. Additionally, Boston carries “under” streaks of 12-4 overall (6-1 last seven, all on the road, 5-0 when facing right-handed starters, 10-3-1 when playing on grass and 4-0 behind Beckett. Finally, the “under” for the Tigers is on runs of 11-3 overall, 7-0 at home, 10-3 against righty starters, 8-3 versus the A.L. East and 4-1 with Galarraga on the hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Dunkel
Boston at Detroit
The Tigers look to bounce back from their 5-1 loss last night and build on their 9-3 record in their last 12 games after scoring 2 or fewer runs in the previous game. Detroit is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+145).
Game 901-902: NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.480; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.465
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-140); Over
Game 903-904: San Francisco at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Johnson) 13.993; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.322
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Under
Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 15.977; Florida (West) 15.670
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+100); Over
Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 15.521; Atlanta (Lowe) 13.983
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); Under
Game 909-910: Colorado at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 15.109; Houston (Moehler) 13.580
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100); Over
Game 911-912: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.976; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.763
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+120); Over
Game 913-914: Philadelphia at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 15.095; San Diego (Young) 15.641
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Over
Game 915-916: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Garland) 15.290; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.645
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+175); Over
Game 917-918: Boston at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.155; Detroit (Galarraga) 16.206
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+145); Under
Game 919-920: Texas at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 16.612; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.465
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+170); Under
Game 921-922: LA Angels at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.713; Toronto (Janssen) 14.338
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Over
Game 923-924: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.279; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 14.695
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Under
Game 925-926: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lee) 15.778; Minnesota (Swarzak) 16.832
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Under
Game 927-928: Oakland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Outman) 16.308; White Sox (Richard) 15.116
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+130); Over
Game 929-930: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.456; Seattle (Vargas) 14.628
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over
Cajun Sports
Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
The Cleveland Indians fell short on Tuesday in game one of this three-game set versus the host Minnesota Twins. The Twins scored two runs in the third and two in the fifth to take a 4-0 lead into the seventh where the Indians plated two runs and another in the eighth but the Twins managed to hang on and close out game one with a 4 to 3 victory. Wednesday night the Indians will send left-hander Cliff Lee to the bump with his 2-6 W/L (-8.5) record and ERA of 3.16 in hopes he can help lead the Indians to a road win. Cleveland has struggled on the highway this season posting a record of 10-17 W/L (-4.7). Lee has also found the going tough away from home with a 1-2 W/L record and an ERA of 4.50. In his last three trips to the bump Cleveland has lost all three games with Lee going 0-1 W/L with an ERA of 3.60. The Twins are sending right-hander Anthony Swarzak to the hill with his record of 1-1 W/L and ERA of 2.08. Swarzak will be making only his third start of the season losing his last trip to the mound versus Boston 3 to 1. In that start he went six innings giving up five hits, three bases on balls and three strikeouts. His first start of the season saw him go seven innings, give up five hits, three strikeouts and no earned runs in a 6 to 2 win over the Brewers. He should have some success versus this Indians team as they are 16-25 W/L (-10.3) versus right-handed starters and his Twins are 19-11 W/L (+5.4) at home this year. Cliff Lee is 0-7 W/L (-8.5) with a money line of -110 to -150 this season and Minnesota is 25-6 W/L (+19.3) at home versus left-handed starters over the last two years. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Twins win over the Indians by 1.4 runs and our Math Model also signals a play on the Twins tonight. Take the host here as the Twins get a game two win to secure a series win versus the Indians.
Graded Selection: 2* Minnesota Twins 4 Cleveland Indians 2
Frank Jordan
Cincinnati Reds vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
St. Louis used a 3 run 6th inning to break a 2-2 tie and take the lead for good as they win at home over Cincinnati. In the third game of this series look for Kyle Lohse to shut down the Reds and notch his 5th win of the year. Play St. Louis
Jimmy The Moose
Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Boston is 23-10 in their last 33 games as a favorite. In their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record the Red Sox are 15-6. The Red Sox send Beckett to the mound and over his last 3 starts his ERA is 1.23. Boston has won 4 of his last 5 starts. In his last 29 starts as a road favorite the Red Sox are 21-8. Detroit's played well but tonight's starter, Gallarraga has struggled. Detroit has lost 5 of his last 6 starts. In his last 4 starts as an underdog the Tigers are 0-4. Boston has won 5 of the last 6 meetings. Play on the Boston Red Sox -.
Lee Kostroski
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves
Derek Lowe continues to be a solid productive starter and the Braves have won seven of his eleven starts this season. Lowe has only allowed more than three earned runs once in his last eight starts and his numbers are very sharp at home and in his most recent starts. Over his last three starts his WHIP is just 0.94 and he pitched extremely well against the Cubs in 2008 as a member of the Dodgers including a game 1 win in the playoffs.
Chicago has struggled on the road with a 9-14 away record and Ted Lilly has pitched significantly worse in road games. Lilly owns a 6.14 ERA away from home, including allowing five or more runs in three road starts. The Chicago bullpen has also been a growing problem area with a 4.70 ERA and seven blown save opportunities. Atlanta is hitting .291 at home against left-handed pitching and the Braves are 11-7 against left-handed starters.
The recent struggles for the Cubs have come due to poor offensive production. The Cubs have scored two or fewer runs in nine of the past 13 games and the team is hitting just .234 away from Wrigley Field. The Cubs are also just 2-10 in the last twelve games as underdogs. Although Chicago had Atlanta’s number last season this year’s Cubs team has not proven it is capable of replicating last year’s success.
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco +105 at WASHINGTON
Now 4-1 with our last five FREE plays from the diamond after the Dodgers got us the winner Tuesday at home over the D'Backs. Today we deliver again as we play the Giants on the road in Washington.
Everything sets up too perfectly not to play the Giants with Randy Johnson (4-4, 5.71 ERA) on the mound this evening. The Big Unit is shooting to become just the 24th pitcher to reach 300 wins and he's doing it against the franchise he got his first win with - the Washington Nationals, formerly known as the Montreal Expos.
It's been more than 20 years since Johnson got that first win for the Expos and he's done it all in his career, including winning World Series titles to no-hitters to All-Star games and now he gets the chance to join a very elite club. And you know he's going to bring that awesome slider and overpower the Nationals tonight.
He's 4-3 with a 2.99 ERA lifetime against Washington and beat them back on May 11 when he allowed four runs in five innings of an 11-7 victory. The Nationals have won just four times in their last 22 games and their pitching staff is last in the majors with a 5.67 ERA.
Jordan Zimmermann (2-2, 6.07 ERA) is on the hill tonight and he faced the Giants back on May 12 allowing five runs in six innings and got hung with the loss.
Today he's just filler for the Randy Johnson show that will get his 300th victory and deliver us a winner.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Chris Jordan
Chicago at ATLANTA -135
I think it’s much smarter to side with Derek Lowe tonight against the Cubbies, than to think Ted Lilly will make a difference at Turner Field in this NL showdown. I know the Chicago southpaw leads the Cubs in wins and quality starts (seven) after beating the Dodgers, 2-1, in his last start, but four of his six wins have come at home. But on the road, it’s been an entirely different story.
Lilly, who is 2-3 with a suitcase in hand, has a road ERA of 6.14. In his five roadies he’s given up five earned runs three times, to the Astros, Diamondbacks and Padres. And I’d have to say the Braves can hit as good if not better than all three of those teams. Though he’s shown durability by lasting at least six innings in all but two of his stats this year, his ERA climbed from 3.11 to 3.77 at one point in May, and is currently at 3.50.
Thus, we’re much better off with Lowe, who still ranks among the league leaders in wins, innings pitched and games started, despite a tough outing his last time out. He gave up a season-high 10 hits in seven innings against the Diamondbacks last Thursday in Arizona.
At home, Lowe has pitched well enough to win each of his five starts, despite his 2-1 mark at Turner. His 3.30 home ERA is respectable, and it should be noted he’s lasted at least 6-2/3 in his last three starts at home, and has a 2.35 ERA there. He’s also struck out 19 versus 12 walks on his own mound.
At 5-2 in his last seven starts, I’m going to stick with Lowe and look for a lights-out showing. Take a shot with the home chalk, again this is just a comp play. The real money is with my 300♦ Run Line Punisher winner!!!
1♦ BRAVES
JIM FEIST
COLORADO ROCKIES / HOUSTON ASTROS
Take: COLORADO ROCKIES
It's tough to back the struggling (and last place) Astros, even at home, where they have a terrible record (even worse than their road mark). This team is 14th in the NL in runs scored. Starter Brian Moehler is struggling, at 2-03 with a 6.43 ERA. He has always struggled against the Rockies, with a 1-2 record and a 6.85 ERA. Colorado starter Jason Marquis has been impressive, at 7-3 with a 3.93 ERA for a last place team. An excellent spot for the visitors. Play the Rockies.
DAVE COKIN
BALTIMORE ORIOLES / SEATTLE MARINERS
Take SEATTLE MARINERS
Jason Vargas is on a roll for the Mariners. Once a highly regarded prospect, Vargas fell off the radar screen thanks to injuries and poor performance, but he's back and on a red hot run right now for Seattle. The Orioles continue to be less than stellar on the road, so I'll look for the Mariners to cash tonight as moderately priced home chalk.
BIG AL
Milwaukee Brewers at Florida Marlins
It's only two starts into his Major League career, but the Marlins could have a real nice find in young lefthander Sean West. The southpaw from Houston turns 23 in a couple of weeks, but already he is looking poised and mature for somebody who, prior to this season, had never pitched above the AA level. West is big (6 foot 8 inches tall) and throws hard and he struck out about one batter per inning in his minor league career and his first two starts haven't exactly been a walk in the park as he first had to face the Rays in an inter-league matchup that resulted in a no-decision, and then followed that up with a trip into Citi Field to face the Mets in what turned out to be an excellent performance however tonight West is still looking for his first win as a major-leaguer. The chances for West's first major league "W" are strong as he faces the Brewers and the soft-tossing righty Braden Looper, who as we've seen sometimes, if his control isn't working can look like a batting practice pitcher. Looper has already faced the Marlins this season and he was not effective at all, giving up five earned runs on eight hits in just six innings, but the Brewers won that game 8-6, mostly because they were facing Ricky Nolasco who had been so bad for Florida that they eventually gave up and sent him to the minors so he could work things out. West should prove to be a much more difficult assignment. This series has been one for the home teams as the visitors have lost eight straight meetings. Take the Marlins.
Play on: Florida
Scott Delaney
Now on a 11-4 run with the complimentary releases after the Blue Jays got it done on the Run Line last night. Tonight we're playing the Rays to get it done over the Royals.
Fact is, Jeff Niemann is turning into a reliable part of this rotation, and the Rays will be thankful for their confidence in him. His towering frame gives him a solid advantage to fire down at batters, and right now it appears he’s in the perfect groove for the Rays, at a perfect time.
He’s compiled three consecutive quality starts, and was in line for a fourth until a two-plus-hour rain delay cut short his performance in Cleveland last week. Niemann had pitched three innings with five hits, one run, one walk and four strikeouts. Not a bad linescore for the 2004 First-Year Player Draft’s No. 4 overall choice, whose ERA is a slim 2.86 since May 13. Plus, the Rays are a rock solid 6-2 in his last eight starts.
He’ll get the run support here, as Kansas City’s Brian Bannister is 1-2 in his career with a 4.42 ERA in three starts against Tampa.
Lay the chalk.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take the coin back with the Diamondbacks.
There is no doubt that Chad Billingsley has been blossoming into an All-Star and a guy with Cy Young potential but this price is still a bit much for me to pass up on with Arizona.
Sure Jon Garland is very feast or famine and the Diamondbacks have been well inferior when compared to the first place Dodgers thus far in the season, especially in that debacle of an eighth inning last night, but as I have been saying for a little while there is potential with guys like Upton, Young, Reynolds and a bunch of the other snakes and in what should be a low scoring competitive game why not grab this generous price back!?!?
Arizona was able to upset Hiroki Kiroda in the opening game of this series as a big dog, 3-2, and I can see a similar result here. It's not like the Diamondbacks aren't playing better ball of late under AJ Hinch. Plus these guys were supposed to win around 85 games according to Vegas before the season better play is far from a fluke and I expect some more good times ahead..
It'll all come down to the schizo Garland. If we see his his former All-Star self show up then we have a great chance to win this game and that upside is well worth this takeback.
Teams coming off harsh beats normally respond in a positive manner in the next game and I expect that to take place today.
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
Solid win last night with the Phillies. We’re making it 2 in a row tonight as we’re taking the Run Line on the Yankees against the visiting Rangers.
These two have already hooked up for one series this season with the Yankees taking 2 of 3. In those two wins the Yankees beat the Rangers 11-1 and 9-2.
Going back to last season the Yankees have taken 4 of 5 against Texas. In that stretch the Yankees have outscored the Rangers, on average, by about 4 runs, 6.2-2.6.
Also, the Yankees come into tonight’s game having won 4 of their last 5 games overall, having beat their opponents, on average, 6.2-3.
Tonight, the Yankees will get over once again on the Rangers and win going away. Take the Run Line on the Yankees tonight.
3♦ YANKEES
Red Dog Sports
Philadelphia at San Diego
Play: Under 7.5
Philadelphia has played 8 unders, 1 over and a push in its last 10 games and these two pitchers have combined for 1 over and 4 unders lately. Chris Young of the Padres has an ERA of 1.89 in his last 3 starts and Happ has an ERA of 3.00 overall this season. Look for the under to profit Wednesday night.